↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 北京时间8月2日晚间，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司发布二季报。伯克希尔 作为"股神"巴菲特执掌的投资帝国，伯克希尔的一举一动已经成为资深投资者 洞悉股市未来走势的重要风向标。 这也是自94岁的巴菲特宣布将于2025年底辞任后的首份财报。伯克希尔非保险业务副主席格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）将接任首席执行官，而巴 菲特将继续担任伯克希尔董事会主席。 一起来看伯克希尔二季度财报其中的关键信息。 01 对卡夫亨氏投资"爆雷" 伯克希尔发布的财报显示，第二季度实现营收925.15亿美元，超出市场预期；净利润为123.7亿美元，同比暴跌59%，但超出市场预期；投资净收 益为49.7亿美元，同比暴跌超73%。 | Total costs and expenses | | 79,384 | | 79,625 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Earnings before income taxes and equity method earnings | | 19,495 | | 37.885 | | | Equity method ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 earnings report marks the first since Warren Buffett announced his retirement plans for the end of 2025, with Greg Abel set to take over as CEO while Buffett remains as chairman [1] Financial Performance - Net earnings attributable to Berkshire shareholders for Q2 2025 were $12.37 billion, down from $30.35 billion in Q2 2024 [4] - Operating earnings for the first six months of 2025 were $20.80 billion, compared to $22.82 billion in the same period of 2024 [4] - Total revenues for Q2 2025 were $92.52 billion, slightly down from $93.65 billion in Q2 2024 [5] - Investment gains for Q2 2025 were $6.36 billion, a significant decrease from $23.86 billion in Q2 2024 [5] Stock and Investment Activity - Berkshire has net sold stocks for the 11th consecutive quarter, selling $4.5 billion worth of stocks in the first half of 2025 [6] - The company did not repurchase any shares in the first half of 2025, despite a more than 10% decline in stock price from its historical high [6] - As of June 30, 2025, 67% of Berkshire's equity holdings were concentrated in five companies: American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron [6] Economic Outlook - Berkshire's report highlighted concerns regarding the potential negative impact of tariffs and international trade tensions on the U.S. economy and the company's future performance [6][7] - The company noted significant uncertainty regarding the outcomes of these events, which could adversely affect most of its operational businesses and equity investments [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices fell across the board due to Trump's new tariff policy, with U.S. Treasury yields also declining and the dollar index dropping [1] - Gold prices rose significantly as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions, with June gold futures closing at $3,365.80 per ounce, up 2.15% [1] - The international gold price saw a cumulative increase of 5.6% for the week, marking the largest weekly gain in six weeks [1] Group 2 - Trump announced a proposal to impose a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting June 1, causing significant declines in European stock indices, with major indices dropping over 2% [4] - The German DAX index fell to its lowest level in two weeks, reaching a low of 23,325.5 points during the trading day [4] - Trump indicated that a 25% tariff would be imposed on mobile manufacturers not producing in the U.S., specifically targeting Apple and Samsung [5][6]

本周行情综述 铜：本周（2025/05/05-2025/05/09）LME 铜价+0.89%到 9439.00 美元/吨，沪铜+0.30%到 7.75 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM, 本周进口铜精矿加工费周度指数跌至-43.11 美元/吨。冶炼端，据 SMM，Aurubis 将于 2025 年启动其价值 8 亿 美元的美国废铜冶炼厂，目标是每年处理 18 万吨废铜并生产 7 万吨精炼铜。消费端，据 SMM, 本周国内主要精铜杆企 业开工率下滑至 62.79%，环比下降 17.10 个百分点；SMM 铜线缆企业开工率为 83.49%，环比下降 5.96 个百分点，主 要因铜价走高导致新增订单量明显减少；黄铜棒企业开工率降至 57.18%，环比下滑 3.94 个百分点，主要受假期延长、 订单减少及高铜价影响，但预计下周开工率将回升至 58.94%。漆包线行业机台开机率达 84.5%，环比下降 2.1%，订单 量下滑 6.8%，主要受关税对消费需求抑制影响。 铝：本周 LME 铝价-0.66%到 2418.00 美元/吨，沪铝-1.63%到 1.96 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四，国内主流消费 地电解铝锭库 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal and DCE live hog futures prices showed a mixed trend, with some contracts rising and some remaining stable. The CBOT soybean futures price declined. The domestic soybean meal spot price is expected to slow down its downward adjustment in the short - term and resume its decline in late May. The live hog market is currently in a state of short - term supply - demand increase, and a significant drop in hog prices may occur after the concentrated supply [1][2][16][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed at 2920 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes showing mixed trends. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract closed at 13985 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous trading day. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 14.76 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The CBOT soybean main contract fell 0.53% to 1041 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - In the US Midwest agricultural main producing areas, there will be local to scattered showers in the western and eastern regions from Wednesday to Friday, and mainly dry weather on Saturday. Temperatures will be close to or higher than normal from Wednesday to Thursday, and close to or lower than normal from Friday to Saturday. More precipitation may occur next week, and the western region may be wetter than the eastern region [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On May 2, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 523 million tons, up 18 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of soybean meal was 8 million tons, up 1 million tons week - on - week. On May 6, the soybean meal transaction volume of major oil mills was 10.21 million tons, an increase of 7.34 million tons from the previous day. The开机 rate of oil mills was 47.95%, an increase of 3.25% from the previous day. The import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans decreased on May 7. The daily slaughter volume of key slaughtering enterprises on May 6 was 124,720 heads, up 0.75% from the previous day. Analysts' average forecasts for the 2024/25 soybean production in Brazil and Argentina and the global and US soybean ending stocks in relevant periods are provided, with slight differences from the USDA's April estimates [5][6]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean futures declined due to concerns about international trade tensions and the drop in soybean oil futures. The Brazilian soybean harvest is over, and its production in the 2024/25 season reached a record high. The domestic DCE soybean meal main M09 contract stopped falling and stabilized. The soybean meal spot price continued to decline, but the decline may slow down in the short - term and resume in late May [16]. - **Live Hogs**: The supply side shows a significant decline in the average slaughter weight in the northern region, and the overall concentrated supply node of the breeding end is approaching. The demand side has poor terminal sales. The live hog market is in a short - term state of supply - demand increase, and a significant drop in hog prices may occur after the concentrated supply [17].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 6th, the A-share market opened strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.13% to 3316.11, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.84% to 10082.34, and the ChiNext Index up 1.97% to 1986.41. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.3362 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index trended strongly on May 6th, closing at 3808.54, up 37.97 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - On May 6th, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1501.6 yuan, down 48.4 [1]. - On the supply side, the start - up rate of independent coking plants increased steadily with profit and hot metal growth, and the start - up of steel - enterprise - affiliated coking plants was stable. The profit per ton of independent coking plants was close to the break - even line, so the motivation for production reduction was weak. In terms of demand, the average daily output of hot metal last week was 2.4542 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons, showing resilient rigid demand. However, due to crude steel production restrictions and Sino - US tariff issues, the market was worried about steel demand, and speculative demand weakened. In terms of inventory, ports and independent coking plants reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The total inventory decreased slightly, and inventory was transferred from upstream to downstream [1]. Coking Coal - During the holiday, coking coal showed a flat performance. Recently, the news of steel production restrictions has depressed the sentiment of coking coal. On the supply side, the domestic coal supply continued to resume production, with the operating rate of 523 sample mines at 89.74%, a week - on - week increase of 1.36%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased due to environmental protection restrictions, and the import volume of seaborne coal decreased due to factors such as profit. Overall, it showed a trend of "increasing domestically and decreasing externally", but the total supply was still relatively abundant [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the large short - term decline, short - sellers covered their positions at low prices, supporting the continued rebound of US sugar on Monday. Supported by the rise of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated higher on Tuesday, but the decline in the spot price limited the upward space of the futures price. The night session of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated slightly [2]. Rubber - Boosted by the rising stock market, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated upward on Tuesday. Affected by the large short - term increase and technical factors, the night session of Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted slightly higher. According to the ANRPC's March 2025 report, global natural rubber production in March was expected to increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, a decrease of 15.6% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 0.1% to 1.36 million tons, an increase of 14.6% from the previous month [3]. Palm Oil - On May 6th, palm oil opened low and moved lower following the external market. The main contract P2509 closed with a downward - gap candlestick with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 7960, the lowest was 7918, and the closing price was 7932, down 0.53% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday, affected by concerns about international trade tensions and the decline of soybean oil futures. In the domestic market, soybean meal futures fluctuated on Tuesday, with the M2509 main contract closing at 2915 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%. As imported Brazilian soybeans are unloaded at factories, the operating rate of oil mills will increase rapidly, and domestic soybean meal inventory will continue to rise. The soybean meal market may fluctuate weakly under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Live Hogs - On Tuesday, live hog futures fluctuated, with the LH2509 main contract closing at 13,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36%. Currently, the market is in the off - season of demand, and the overall consumer demand is weak. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding side has accelerated, and the supply of live hogs in the market has increased. The live hog futures may fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Shanghai Copper - Global economic uncertainty has intensified, but in April, the composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that Chinese enterprises' production and business activities continued to expand, providing some support for copper prices. At the same time, global copper mine supply has been affected, and China's economic recovery has led to an increase in copper demand. Under the combined effect of supply - demand factors and capital inflow, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed slightly higher [6]. Cotton - On the night of Tuesday, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 12,835 yuan/ton. On May 7th, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Exchange was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 76 lots compared with the previous trading day. The emergence rate of cotton in Xinjiang was good [6]. Iron Ore - On May 6th, the main contract of iron ore 2509 fluctuated and closed flat at 704.5 yuan. The overseas shipment of iron ore decreased due to the maintenance of some port berths in Australia. Steel mills' rigid demand for replenishment supported the further increase of hot metal output, but the room for further increase was limited. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On May 6th, the main contract of asphalt 2506 fluctuated and fell, with a decline of 1.32%, closing at 3361 yuan. The planned asphalt production in May increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Affected by holidays, asphalt shipments decreased, and social inventory was high. Recently, international oil prices have fallen sharply, weakening the cost support. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Logs - On Tuesday, the 2507 log contract opened at 784, with a minimum of 783, a maximum of 793, and closed at 789.5, with a daily increase of 521 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 - 790 and the resistance at 803. On May 6th, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 790 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. Port log inventory decreased month - on - month, and outbound volume increased slightly. Overall demand was still weak, and there was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship [8]. Steel - On May 6th, rb2510 closed at 3077 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3196 yuan/ton. The hot metal output of long - process steelmaking reached the peak and then declined this week, and the operating rate of electric furnaces also decreased slightly. The output of rebar decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, terminal demand increased on a low - base basis but was weaker than the same period in previous years. The actual demand was lower than expected. Currently, there is no new policy information, and the upward driving force of steel prices is weak. Steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Alumina - On May 6th, ao2509 closed at 2675 yuan/ton. With the increase in bauxite supply, bauxite prices still have some room to fall, which is negative for alumina prices. The situation of production reduction, resumption, and new capacity release coexists. There is still capacity to resume production in Australia and India overseas. The overall supply of alumina is expected to increase significantly in the future [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 6th, al2506 closed at 19,785 yuan/ton. The easing of Sino - US relations on tariff issues stimulated the rise of US stocks and drove up the price of aluminum in the external market. However, the weakening of aluminum demand in the off - season restricted the upward range of aluminum prices. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 67,184 yuan/ton, down 845 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,700 - 68,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 67,100 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 - 65,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 65,400 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate is expected to remain in oversupply in May, and its price may maintain a weak - shock trend in the short term [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends and driving factors of several agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, with a short - term view of "oscillating weakly" for all these products and a medium - term view of "oscillating" [6][7][8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [6][7] - **Driving Factors**: CBOT soybean futures declined for two consecutive days due to concerns about international trade tensions and falling soybean oil futures. Domestic soybean meal spot prices in North and Northeast China stabilized, and the decline of soybean meal futures slowed. The average arrival volume of imported soybeans from May to July is large, and the market focuses on oil mill operation plans,提货 rhythms, and downstream inventory procurement dynamics. The overall price of soybean products is under pressure as supply expectations improve [6] - **Core Logic**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, North American spring sowing weather, oil mill operation rhythm, and备货 demand [7] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [7][8] - **Driving Factors**: Under the double pressure of rising inventory and weak demand, Malaysian palm oil prices are continuously under pressure. The decline in international oil prices also casts a shadow over the outlook for Indonesian biofuel demand. Both Malaysian and domestic palm oil inventories are expected to rise, and the short - term palm oil futures price lacks obvious drivers, following the trend in the oil and fat sector passively, with a bearish market sentiment [8] - **Core Logic**: Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [7] Soybean Oil (2509) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [7] - **Core Logic**: US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel备货 demand [7]