Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Core Viewpoint - Guangxin Materials (300537) is progressing according to its planned schedule at the Longnan base, with significant advancements in production capabilities and product offerings [1] Group 1: Production Progress - The company has completed most of the factory construction and equipment layout at the Longnan base [1] - Several sub-projects have already commenced production, including PCB photoresist with a capacity of 16,000 tons and self-made resin with a capacity of 12,000 tons [1] - Other sub-projects are expected to submit trial production applications by the first half of 2026 [1] Group 2: Strategic Advantages - The release of production capacity at the Longnan base will enhance the company's product offerings in related fields [1] - The company aims to leverage centralized production advantages and industry chain integration to improve profitability [1] - These developments are expected to strengthen the company's core competitiveness and support future performance growth, contributing to long-term sustainable development [1]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weakening marginally, but the long - term outlook is positive. With frequent supply disruptions and positive market sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog New Price Dynamics and Reasons On January 5th, the lithium carbonate futures price soared. The main contract rose significantly. The reasons are strong market sentiment as some funds re - entered the market after the holiday, and concerns about South American lithium resources supply due to the geopolitical issues in Venezuela during the New Year's Day. The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" issued on January 4th also affected market sentiment. [1][2] Fundamental Situation The current demand for lithium carbonate is marginally weakening, but the long - term demand forecast is strong, and the supply remains high. The market game has a large impact on prices. The concentrated maintenance of several leading cathode material manufacturers in January will lead to weaker demand and increased inventory. However, the price is still expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive market sentiment and long - term optimism. The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" may affect the pace of capacity release, and the beneficiation capacity in Sichuan may become a bottleneck in 2026. [3] Summary and Strategy Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weakening marginally, the long - term expectation is good. With frequent supply disruptions and positive capital sentiment, the price will mainly fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips. [4]

Group 1 - Company Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) is scheduled to release its 2025 annual report on March 28, 2026 [1][6] - For Q4 2025, the expected revenue is projected to be between 181.73 billion to 264.12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -14.7% to 24.0% [2][6] - The expected net profit for Q4 2025 is forecasted to be between 16.26 billion to 20.67 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.2% to 52.8% [2][6] Group 2 - According to Minsheng Securities, Luoyang Molybdenum's production in 2024 is expected to exceed forecasts, with copper and cobalt production increasing significantly by 55% and 106% year-on-year, respectively [4][8] - The company’s production capacity for copper and cobalt has surpassed annual production targets, achieving completion rates of 114.1% and 163.1% [4][8] - The company aims for a copper production target of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons over the next five years [4][9] Group 3 - Guosheng Securities anticipates a significant increase in Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for 2024, estimating it to reach between 12.8 billion to 14.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.2% to 72.1% [5][9] - The company is expected to see a quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 58.6% to 107.6% in Q4 2024 [5][9] - The company has signed a cooperation agreement for the Nzilo_II hydropower station to ensure power supply, and projects TFM and KFM are progressing smoothly [10]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Meifeng is actively responding to market volatility by focusing on cost control, market expansion, capacity release, management optimization, technological upgrades, and industrial transformation to enhance its value creation capability and improve competitiveness [1] Group 1 - The company emphasizes cost control as a key strategy to navigate market challenges [1] - Market expansion is identified as a critical area for growth and resilience [1] - The company is committed to releasing production capacity to meet market demands [1] Group 2 - Management optimization is a focus area to improve operational efficiency [1] - Technological upgrades are being pursued to enhance product offerings and competitiveness [1] - Industrial transformation is part of the company's strategy to adapt to changing market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic partnership between Yuanfei Pet and the trendy toy brand Heyone is expected to leverage Yuanfei's supply chain advantages, enhancing production capacity and exploring new markets [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - Yuanfei Pet has formed a strategic cooperation with Heyone, primarily focusing on OEM production [1] - Yuanfei Pet has a well-established manufacturing and supply chain management system in the pet food and supplies sector, which is adaptable to high-quality and safety-demanding trendy toy products [1] Group 2: Brand Development - Heyone is an original IP-centric trendy toy brand that has developed recognizable IPs such as "Oh Zai," "MIMI," and "R3NA," gaining traction among young consumers [1] - The collaboration is expected to facilitate the full release of future production capacity and exploration of new fields [1] Group 3: Global Expansion and Production Capacity - Yuanfei Pet is advancing its global production layout, having established a mature management team in Cambodia, where existing production bases are operating at full capacity [1] - New production capacity is expected to be released in 2026, while the construction of a production base in Bangladesh is progressing steadily, which will enhance global supply chain resilience [1] - The trend of overseas business development is positive, and the impact of tariff adjustments on product profits is expected to be limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of tungsten has surged significantly, leading to a bullish trend in the metal market, with Jaxin International (03858) being recognized as a key player benefiting from this price increase [1][2]. Group 1: Tungsten Price Dynamics - Tungsten prices have increased by 12%-18% weekly, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 200%, making it one of the most aggressively rising metals expected to continue this trend into 2025 [1][2]. - Key tungsten products have reached new highs, with black tungsten concentrate priced at 430,000 CNY per standard ton (up 15.3% week-on-week), ammonium paratungstate (APT) at 650,000 CNY per ton (up 17.1% week-on-week), and tungsten powder surpassing 1,030 CNY per kilogram (up 13.2% week-on-week) [2][3]. - The price surge is driven by tight supply and structural demand growth, with domestic mining quotas decreasing and limited overseas production to fill the gap [2][3]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - Demand for tungsten is increasing across various sectors, particularly in photovoltaics, military, and high-end manufacturing, with significant projected growth in tungsten usage for solar applications and military hard alloys [3]. - The implementation of export restrictions on tungsten products in China is expected to further elevate overseas prices [3]. Group 3: Jaxin International's Position - Jaxin International is recognized as the "elastic king" in the tungsten market due to its substantial open-pit tungsten mine and strategic partnerships with state-owned enterprises, ensuring efficient production and market positioning [4][5]. - The company has a significant resource base with 107 million tons of ore and a tungsten resource of 227,300 tons, making it the largest open-pit tungsten mine globally [5]. - Jaxin's production capacity is set to increase significantly, with targets of 1.205 million tons of tungsten concentrate in 2025 and 1.37 million tons by 2027, alongside a projected reduction in production costs [6][7]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - Jaxin International's stock has seen a remarkable increase, with a historical high of 44.38 HKD per share, reflecting a 306% rise from its IPO price of 10.92 HKD [1][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross profit of 5.5 to 6 billion CNY by 2027, based on projected production and price levels, indicating strong potential for future profitability [8][9]. - The market anticipates that Jaxin's stock could replicate the tenfold growth seen by Zijin Mining in 2021, driven by resource value reassessment and production capacity realization [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation [2] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to experience intensified range-bound fluctuations, with a focus on capital movements and attention to marginal changes in supply and demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will halt production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, resuming around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others plan to stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the contracted area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, affected by domestic lithium mine production dynamics, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 108,600 yuan/ton, up 7.97%. Trading volume increased by 93.9% to 1.1586 million lots, with a slight 0.4% increase in positions. The net short position of the main contract continued. The spot price was 97,050 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 11,570 yuan/ton, indicating a significant premium of futures over spot [1] - The overall trading activity does not match the price increase, mainly supported by the rigid demand of a small number of enterprises [1] - On the supply side, raw material prices rose slightly, with a significant YoY increase, strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate was 51.29%, a 0.27% MoM increase, and output was 21,998 tons, a 0.33% MoM increase. The spodumene process was the main growth driver [2] - On the demand side, the production of cathode materials slightly declined, and inventory continued to be depleted. The processing fee of some lithium iron phosphate products will be uniformly increased in 2026 [2] - In the terminal market, in November, the production of new - energy vehicles and automotive lithium - ion batteries increased by 17% and 32.7% YoY respectively. As of December 7, new - energy vehicle sales increased significantly YoY, and the penetration rate increased MoM [2] - As of December 11, the weekly inventory continued to be depleted, and the overall inventory remained tight, supporting prices [2] - Macroeconomic policies such as the Fed's potential interest rate cut, Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference have positive impacts on the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate [3] - Due to factors like the tight supply - demand balance, overseas resource/复产 news, and domestic lithium mine production dynamics, capital speculation has intensified. Considering future capacity release and the net short position of the main contract, short - term price fluctuations may widen [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core View - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a sideways and consolidating manner, with its focus shifting downward and showing a weak performance. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner, with the market focusing on capital games and marginal supply - demand changes [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also have production affected. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2][3] - The price of finished steel continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [2][3] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the main lithium carbonate contract LC2605 closed at 100,600 CNY/ton, with a 1.4% decrease in trading volume, increased open interest, and a continued net - short position of the main force. The basis of the main contract narrowed to - 4,750 CNY/ton, with increased upstream selling willingness and decreased downstream purchasing enthusiasm [2] - Supply - side raw material prices rose slightly year - on - year, strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 51.29%, a 0.27% increase, and the output was 21,998 tons, a 0.33% increase. The lithium spodumene process was the core growth driver, with new projects being launched. The potential cancellation of Jiangte Motor's Shiziling mining right strengthened short - term bullish sentiment, and the commissioning of Xikeng and Inner Mongolia Veraste projects clarified long - term production capacity release [3] - On the demand side, the output of cathode materials decreased slightly and inventory continued to decline. Some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers will raise processing fees in 2026. In the terminal market, the output of new energy vehicles and automotive lithium - ion batteries increased by 17% and 32.7% year - on - year in November, and new energy vehicle sales increased significantly year - on - year as of December 7, with short - term adjustments but long - term resilience [3] - As of December 11, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample continued to decline, with the overall inventory remaining tight, which supported price [3] - Macroeconomic policies such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference provided long - term support for lithium carbonate's supply - demand pattern. Market sentiment was affected by supply - demand balance and various production - capacity news, leading to intensified long - short games. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify due to long - term production capacity release and the net - short position of the main force [4]

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：市场情绪高涨 聚焦资金博弈与供需边际 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 16 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂主力合约 LC2605 较上一交易日上涨 3.42%至 10.16 万元/吨，成交和持仓量持续放量，主力净空格局延续，资金博弈加剧价格 波动，盘面价格中心持续上移。截至收盘，SMM 数据显示电碳均价 95，150 元/吨，主力合约基差扩大至-6，450 元/吨，期现背离加剧。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2 ...