撰 文 / 张霖郁 设 计 / 琚 佳 来 源 / New York Times、CNBC 作者：Agnes Chang, Lazaro Gamio and Pablo Robles 惊心动魄的10天。 从美国当地时间4月2日特朗普（Donald J. Trump）对全球贸易伙伴加征关税开始，再到中国政府的 强势回应，目前的结果是美国共新增对华关税145%，其中125%为特朗普定义的对等关税，而之前 分别于2月以及3月两次增加的10%关税，他称是针对中国向美出口芬太尼的处罚性关税。 同时，美国时间4月11日，特朗普政府突然又对来自于中国的手机、电脑等电子产品进行了关税豁 免，对等关税125%不再加收。 中国方面，我们在4月11日作出回应，对美商品加增至125%，并且指出"鉴于在目前关税水平下， 美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性，如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税，中方将不予理 会。 " 这场贸易战，给依赖中国供应商的美国企业以及依赖对美出口的中国企业带来了巨大的不确定性。 两国近期的报复性措施甚至导致关税成本高于商品本身价格。 但贸易律师、报关行和进口商表示，由于贸易规则不断变化，并非所有产品都会被征收天价 ...

实施细则公布。 海关总署4月9日发布公告称，根据国务院关税税则委员会相关公告，自2025年4月10日12时01分起，对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础 上加征84％关税；2025年4月10日12时01分之前，货物已从启运地启运，并于2025年4月10日12时01分至2025年5月13日24时进口的（以下称"在途货物"）， 不加征本次加征的关税。 海关总署公告显示，对2025年4月10日12时01分起申报进口原产于美国的所有货物，在现行征税方式、适用关税税率（现行适用的最惠国税率或暂定税率与已 实施的加征关税税率之和）基础上加征本次加征的关税。 对"在途货物"，进口企业可申请不加征本次加征的关税。进口企业应自行核实原产于美国进口货物的运输情况，确认装载有关货物的运输工具已于2025年4月 10日12时01分之前从启运地启运，且相关货物于2025年5月13日24时前申报进口。申请不加征本次加征关税的"在途货物"，应在装载该货物的运输工具申报进 境后申报进口；对自海关特殊监管区域、保税监管场所等出区内销和区外加工贸易内销等贸易方式下进口货物，申请不加征本次加征关税的，应在2025年5月 13日24时 ...

来源：中国基金报 中国对美国的新一轮反制，来了！ 01 强硬反制！ 中方对原产于美国的所有进口商品再加征50%关税 美国东部时间4月8日，美方将此前宣布的对中国输美产品加征34%所谓"对等关税"，进一步提高50%至84%。 国务院关税税则委员会今天发布公告，自4月10日12时01分起，调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税的公告》（税委会公告 2025年第4号）规定的加征关税税率， 原产于美国的所有进口商品的加征关税税率由34%提高至84% 。 02 将12家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单 商务部今日发布公告，将12家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单，禁止向其出口两用物项： 1. 美国光子公司（American Photonics） 2. 诺沃特公司（Novotech, Inc.） 3. 埃科达因公司（Echodyne） 4. 马文工程公司（Marvin Engeering Company, Inc.） 5. 埃克索维拉公司（Exovera） 6. 特励达·布朗工程公司（Teledyne Brown Engineering, Inc.） 7. BRINC无人机公司（BRINC Drones, ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product daily report on cotton and cotton yarn, dated April 8, 2024 [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 closed at 13,160 with a decline of 180, trading volume of 10,879 (increase of 5,541), and open interest of 23,961 (increase of 2,345) [3] - CF05 closed at 12,835 with a decline of 255, trading volume of 463,019 (increase of 103,741), and open interest of 439,624 (decrease of 26,520) [3] - CF09 closed at 13,000 with a decline of 250, trading volume of 322,506 (increase of 94,241), and open interest of 321,806 (increase of 35,642) [3] - CY01 closed at 19,840 with no change, trading volume of 0, and open interest of 6 [3] - CY05 closed at 18,935 with a decline of 230, trading volume of 5,324 (increase of 1,344), and open interest of 2,331 (decrease of 737) [3] - CY09 closed at 18,965 with a decline of 265, trading volume of 484 (increase of 208), and open interest of 630 (decrease of 78) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 14,815 yuan/ton [3] - Cot A was priced at 76.70 cents/pound, down 2.90 [3] - CY IndexC32S was priced at 20,830 yuan/ton, down 240 [3] - FCY IndexC33S was priced at 22,073 yuan/ton, up 65 [3] Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was 325, up 75; 5 - 9 month spread was -165, down 5; 9 - 1 month spread was -160, down 70 [3] - Cotton yarn 1 - 5 month spread was 905, up 230; 5 - 9 month spread was -30, up 35; 9 - 1 month spread was -875, down 265 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,680, up 180; CY05 - CF05 spread was 6,100, up 25; CY09 - CF09 spread was 5,965, down 15 [3] - 1% tariff inner - outer cotton spread was 1,520, up 15,067; sliding - duty inner - outer cotton spread was 652, up 14,965; inner - outer yarn spread was -1,243, down 305 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - From March 27 to April 2, 2025, India's cotton - growing areas (92.4%) had a weekly rainfall of 0.6mm, 0.4mm lower than normal and 0.6mm lower than last year. Cumulative rainfall from March 1 to April 2 was 3.8mm, 3.1mm lower than normal [4] - As of April 8, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 4%, 1 percentage point lower than last year and 2 percentage points lower than the five - year average. Texas' planting speed was also slow [6] - As of April 7, 2025, Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone's total cotton inventory was 50,400 tons, up 1.42% week - on - week. Bonded cotton was 47,300 tons, down 0.10%; non - bonded cotton was 3,100 tons, up 32.49%. The proportion of US cotton decreased by 0.19 percentage points, Brazilian cotton by 0.06 percentage points, and Australian cotton by 0.45 percentage points, while other regions increased by 0.69 percentage points. Net inbound inventory was 524.23 tons [6] - On April 8, the Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned the US threat to impose an additional 50% tariff on China [7] Trading Logic - The US will impose a 10% benchmark tariff globally on April 5 and additional taxes on about 60 countries with large trade deficits. China will be subject to a 54% tariff this year. The minimum tariff exemption will end on May 2. The market is trading on macro - risk events, which are expected to have a negative impact on cotton prices [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Be bearish, hold short positions as the fundamentals are weak [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Consider selling call options or buying put options [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Affected by tariffs, Zhengzhou cotton prices dropped sharply, market confidence was hit, new orders for pure cotton yarn were scarce, and prices may fall [9] - After the sharp drop in the futures and stock markets, market sentiment was cautious, trading weakened, and prices are expected to decline. As the market stabilizes, weavers may start to purchase [9] Group 4: Options - On April 8, 2025, for CF509C14000.CZC, the closing price was 118.00, down 9.2%, implied volatility was 14.1% [11] - For CF509P13600.CZC, the closing price was 776.00, up 41.3%, implied volatility was 13.1% [11] - For CF509P13200.CZC, the closing price was 505.00, up 46.8%, implied volatility was 12.7% [11] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 9.7765, slightly lower than the previous day [11] - The PCR of the main contract's open interest was 0.5247, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.9622. Both call and put trading volumes increased, indicating a bearish sentiment [12] - Options strategy: Consider selling call options or buying put options [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant market downturn triggered by China's retaliatory measures against the U.S., leading to widespread declines in various financial markets and commodities. Market Reactions - U.S. stock index futures experienced a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq futures dropping over 3% and the S&P 500 futures down by 3.02% [3][4] - The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield fell nearly 5%, marking its lowest level since September 2022 [4] - European stock markets also faced severe declines, with Italy's FTSE MIB index dropping nearly 7% and other major indices like Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 also experiencing significant losses [7][8] Commodity Market Impact - International oil prices saw a substantial drop, with WTI crude oil prices decreasing by as much as 9% [11][12] - Precious metals like copper and silver also faced declines, with prices dropping nearly 2% during trading [9] Chinese Government Actions - The Chinese government announced a 34% tariff on U.S. imports, effective from April 10, as a countermeasure to U.S. tariffs [13][21] - The Ministry of Commerce listed 11 U.S. entities as unreliable and imposed export controls on 16 U.S. companies [14] - Investigations into anti-dumping practices on medical CT tubes from the U.S. and India were initiated [15] - Export control measures were implemented on seven categories of rare earth elements [16] - Six U.S. companies had their qualifications to export products to China suspended [18]

每周思考总第620期 《 新高如期兑现，首次左侧预警 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至3 月16日累计收益7.79%。 中小市值板块择时观点： 短期交易中的政策窗口期尾声阶段，同步于主板开启谨慎博弈策略，自1月 翻多后首次建议重回 中等仓位 ，风格建议转向均衡； 短期动量（趋势）模型建议关注行业：无。 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 中仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 中仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 观点简述： 上周市场如期上行创出本轮新高，沪深300指数涨幅1.59%，上证综指周涨幅1.39%，中证500指 数周涨幅1.43%。上周我们标题观点提示"A股仍在政策窗口期"，实际A股上周五大涨重要催化因素也 是周四央行关于降准降息的最新强调表态。 基本面上，中国经济仍只是温和企稳。 国内方面，上周发布的2月货币供应数据整体喜忧参半， 社融同比回升而M1同比回落，表明国内经济仍在底部夯实状态而非强劲反转走强， 重申留意三月美 国全球关税加征后对中国外需的更显著冲击，在此阶段央行重提"年内择 ...

美国宣布给中国所有商品增加10%的关税的消息公布之后，恒生指数节后首日更是以下跌超2%的态 势开盘，美元指数也是暴涨，离岸人民币大幅贬值，差点创了2024年12月31日创造的7.369的新低。 作者 | RAYYYY 编辑 | 小白 A股于2月5日正式开市，在春节假期期间，有一大利空和一大利好，分别是美国加征关税以及DeepSe ek横空出世。 不过好消息是，港股仅用两天便扛住了美国关税的利空，Choice数据显示，过节期间，恒生指数上涨 2.8%，恒生国企上涨3.5%，受DeepSeek消息面影响，恒生科技指数上涨5.4%。 | 过节期间境外主要指数涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 时间段 | 指数名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 2025/2/3-2025/2/4 | 恒生指数 | 2.8 | | 恒生国企指数 | | 3.5 | | 恒生科技指数 | | 5.4 | | 2025/1/29-2025/2/4 | 纳斯达克 | -1.7 | | 道琼斯工业平均 | | -0. 9 | （来源：Choice数据，市值风云APP制表） 由此看来，尽管特朗普政府对华加征10%关税短期 ...