利率路径仍然是下行的，但下行的幅度和速度更加不确定。 英国央行行长贝利：不会对六月份的利率决策做出任何预测。 ...

贸易动荡影响的不确定性上升。 新西兰联储在应对全球形势发展方面处于有利位置。 新西兰联储助理主席Silk：新西兰联储需要更多时间来决定利率路径。 ...

1、美联储对利率路径的讨论情况。 2、美联储对关税问题的讨论，包括对美国经济、就业、通胀等的影响。 3、美联储对金融市场（美元、美债、美股等）的看法。 4、美联储对政策框架评估相关事宜的讨论。 ...

Group 1 - The central bank of Israel will determine the interest rate path based on inflation trends towards its target, the stability of financial markets, economic activity, and the state of fiscal policy [1]

欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩：公布一个有条件的利率路径将会令人感到尴尬。 ...

在对美国经济前景的展望上，鲍威尔指出，通胀略高于2%的目标，但"核心通胀状况良好"，就业市场 也接近充分就业，因此美联储目前"无需仓促行动"，政策工具也"准备充足"。不过他也警告，如果特朗 普政府宣布的大规模加征关税最终落地，可能会推高通胀、拖累经济增长，并导致失业上升。 在被问及经济当前面临的风险时，鲍威尔坦言，目前通胀与失业的上行风险"双双上升"，美联储需要在 两者之间进行权衡。他强调，美联储将密切关注两项关键变量(通胀与就业)，并在必要时作出政策调 整，"如果我们看到就业市场显著恶化，当然会采取支持行动。" 近期数据显示，美国4月失业率为4.2%，仍处于主流估算的"最大就业"范围之内。但与去年相比，美联 储已显现出更高的容忍度，允许就业市场一定程度上的放缓，以对抗持续偏高的通胀。 面对市场对降息的高度关注，鲍威尔表示，美联储当前采取"观望"策略，并不会因预期经济放缓而预先 调整利率。他指出，由于贸易政策、关税等变量仍存在极大不确定性，美联储"无法提前判断数据如何 演变"，因此将"静待更清晰的数据指引再决定政策走向"。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席鲍威尔周三在新闻发布会上表示，美联储在货币政策制定上将继 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：在某些情况下今年降息是合适的，在某些情况下降息是不合适的，我不能自信地说 我知道合适的利率路径。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's potential guidance on interest rate paths is under discussion [1] - There is an ongoing discussion regarding President Trump's tariff policies and their potential inflation risks [2] - The Federal Reserve may disclose progress related to its policy framework assessment during the research meeting scheduled for May 15-16 [3] Group 2 - Discussions are taking place regarding labor supply and demand, including factors such as Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) promoting federal layoffs and Trump's immigration policies [4] - The Federal Reserve's perspective on financial markets, including U.S. Treasury bonds and the stock market, is being evaluated [5] - The Federal Reserve's views on the U.S. debt ceiling issue are also being considered [6]

5月6日国内金价快报：国内各大金店金价在五一假期期间跌下千元大关，但今日重新上涨，再创历史新 高。今日六福金店价格上涨28元/克，最新标价1026元/克，与周大福等金店同为最高价金店。上海中国 黄金价格不变，还是报价969元/克，为最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差57元/克，价差再次扩大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年5月6日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1022 | 元/克 | 31 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1026 | 元/克 | 28 | 涨 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1026 | 元/克 | 28 | 涨 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1026 | 元/克 | 28 | 涨 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1026 | 元/克 | 28 | 涨 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1025 | 元/克 | 27 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1022 | 元/克 | 28 | 涨 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 102 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For finished products, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price center of gravity continues to move downward. The market sentiment is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish with limited price support. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [2][3]. - For aluminum ingots, it is expected that the price will fluctuate within a short - term range. The downstream is at the stage of alternating between peak and off - peak seasons, and the inventory is still being depleted. Attention should be paid to the support of subsequent inventory performance on prices, as well as macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Production Shutdown Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are mostly from mid - January, with resumption expected from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January. Some individual steel mills may shut down after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - **Market Situation**: The finished products continued to fluctuate downward yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. 3.2铝锭 (Aluminum Ingots) - **Production Situation**: In April 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.6% year - on - year and decreased by 2.9% month - on - month. In May, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to start in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. Recently, some enterprises have carried out capacity maintenance, which has little impact on the supply side [3]. - **Demand Situation**: Before the festival, the start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.6% from the previous week and decreased by 2.8 percentage points year - on - year. Except for the aluminum cable industry, the start - up rates of other sectors have declined to varying degrees. The traditional peak season for aluminum downstream is coming to an end, and the seasonal decline in terminal demand and overseas trade frictions will put double pressure on the downstream start - up rate [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 636,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous Monday [3]. - **Macro Situation**: The domestic macro - environment has a positive atmosphere, while overseas, Trump's policy attitude is changeable, and there are many uncertainties in the tariff war, which puts pressure on the market [4].