Group 1: Employment Data - The June non-farm payroll report shows an increase of 206,000 jobs, slightly above expectations but with previous values significantly revised down from 272,000 to 218,000, indicating overestimation of prior employment strength [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, the highest level since October 2021, marking three consecutive months above 4.0% [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, with the growth rate continuing to slow down, suggesting a significant and comprehensive slowdown in the labor market [3] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the employment data release, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from around 70% to 98%, indicating strong market consensus on the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The market is currently pricing in two rate cuts (50 basis points) for the year, with a greater than 50% chance of a third cut [4] Group 3: Asset Class Implications - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to reshape asset class dynamics, benefiting gold as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [5] - U.S. equities, particularly technology growth stocks, are likely to benefit from lower financing costs and increased valuations due to reduced discount rates [5] - The U.S. dollar is expected to face pressure, providing relief for non-U.S. currencies such as the euro, yen, and yuan [6] - Improved liquidity expectations and rising risk appetite are generally favorable for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [7] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors should focus on adjusting their portfolios to increase exposure to interest rate-sensitive assets in light of the anticipated rate cuts [8] - Caution is advised against excessive buying, with a strategy to utilize market volatility for gradual positioning [9] - A global macro perspective is essential as shifts in U.S. dollar liquidity will impact global markets [10] Group 5: Conclusion - The non-farm report may serve as a critical factor for the Federal Reserve's policy shift, providing sufficient rationale to initiate a rate-cutting cycle [11] - While the market anticipates easing policies, the ultimate decision-making power remains with the Federal Reserve [11]

Core Insights - The international gold price has seen a significant increase this week, reaching a high of $3,578 per ounce, driven by strong market performance in the first three days of the week [1] - The release of the "small non-farm" employment data for August showed an increase of 54,000 jobs, which was below the expected 65,000, indicating a noticeable weakness in the employment market [1] - The previous month's data was revised upward from 104,000 to 106,000, suggesting a trend of declining small non-farm employment data throughout the year [1] Employment Data Analysis - The small non-farm data is considered to be closer to the actual employment situation, as it measures the non-farm employment numbers in the private sector [1] - The consistent downward trend in small non-farm data throughout the year highlights ongoing challenges in the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a pullback as investors anticipate potential adjustments following significant gains, particularly in the technology sector, leading to profit-taking behavior [1][4]. Market Performance - The technology sector, especially semiconductor-related companies, is seeing significant outflows, with various sectors experiencing declines, such as: - Communication Equipment: -5.38% - Components: -5.09% - Other Power Equipment: -4.60% - Electronic Chemicals: -4.34% [2]. Investor Behavior - There is a phenomenon of "self-fulfilling expectations," where widespread anticipation of market adjustments leads to actual sell-offs, as seen with investors preemptively cashing out [1][4]. - Despite the overall market decline, leading companies in the technology sector, such as "Hanwang," have not dropped and even experienced slight gains, indicating resilience [2]. Volume and Liquidity - The market continues to show strong liquidity, with a trading volume of 2.87 trillion, suggesting that funds are still actively participating despite the pullback [5]. Gold Market Insights - The gold market is reaching new highs, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is positively impacting gold stocks [6]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook remains bullish, with the Shanghai Composite Index not breaking below critical support levels, indicating that the overall upward trend is still intact despite recent adjustments [9]. Sector Focus - Attention is drawn to specific sectors, such as electricity, where there is noticeable capital inflow, suggesting selective investment opportunities amidst broader market adjustments [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by institutional trading rather than fundamental changes in the market, with a focus on emotional trading and speculative movements [1][3]. Market Sentiment - Current market attention is on upcoming non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate minutes, with many betting on a rate cut in September, which has amplified bullish sentiment [3]. - The rise in gold prices to 3489 is attributed more to speculative trading rather than a significant influx of safe-haven funds [3]. Technical Analysis - The recent price action is characterized by a pattern of "low-level oscillation—bullish breakout—high-level tug-of-war" [4]. - Key support levels are identified at 3460, 3456-3450, 3438-3430, and extreme levels at 3415-3400 [5]. - Key resistance levels are noted at 3480-3483, 3489, 3493-3496, with a psychological barrier at 3500, which could lead to a push towards 3520 if breached [6]. Market Dynamics - The market is significantly influenced by institutional control, leading to a decrease in the reliability of conventional technical signals [8]. - The current trading environment resembles a "washout—breakout—inducement" scenario, making the effectiveness of key levels more critical than traditional indicators [8]. Trading Strategies - For bearish positions, consider light shorting around 3480-3483, targeting 3470-3460, and monitor for a breakdown below 3456-3450 [9]. - For bullish positions, only consider short-term buys in the 3456-3450 range, aiming for 3460-3470, while avoiding chasing prices at high levels [9]. - In extreme scenarios, if prices drop below 3438-3430, refrain from bottom-fishing as further declines to 3415-3400 may occur; conversely, if prices break above 3500 to 3520, consider light shorting with strict stop-loss measures above 3525 [9].

Group 1: Market Outlook - U.S. stock market may decline if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium [1] - Investors are optimistic about potential Fed rate cuts to support a weak labor market and alleviate U.S. debt burdens, leading to inflows into various risk assets [1] - The S&P 500 index has reached a historical peak, driven by tech giants, despite mixed inflation data affecting rate cut expectations [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and Investment Trends - Record inflows into cash, stock, and bond funds were reported, with cash funds attracting $33 billion, stock funds $26.4 billion, and bond funds $25.9 billion [2] - Cryptocurrency and gold also saw significant inflows, with $4.5 billion and $2.6 billion respectively [2] - Global stock funds attracted over $26 billion in a week, with a total inflow of $576 billion this year, potentially marking the third-highest inflow year [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The current rate cut cycle is the fastest since 2020, with 88 cuts made by global central banks this year [2] - Discussions around the Fed's independence and inflation targets suggest a weakening dollar, which may benefit gold, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets [2] Group 4: Energy Market Insights - Oil and gas prices have dropped by 41% since March, reflecting geopolitical tensions [3] - Trump's geopolitical stance aims to lower U.S. energy costs, which may contribute to a bearish energy market [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown volatility, recently bouncing back to $3,400 after dipping to $3,268, indicating a fluctuating market sentiment and the ongoing struggle between bullish and bearish investors [1] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has cooled significantly compared to the first quarter, with many investors waiting for gold prices to drop to around $700 to buy in, similar to those who previously waited for prices to reach $600 and $500 [1] Investor Behavior - Short sellers are actively seeking reasons to justify their positions, believing that if the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts, gold prices will plummet due to the principle of "buy the rumor, sell the news" [1]

Group 1 - The anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike is influencing global foreign exchange markets, with potential opportunities and challenges for traders [1][2] - Historically, the dollar index tends to rise significantly before and after the initiation of an interest rate hike cycle, exerting pressure on a basket of major currencies [2] - The market is currently digesting the year-end rate hike expectations, highlighting the need to be cautious of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon [2] Group 2 - Different currencies are experiencing significant divergence under the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, with major currencies like the euro and yen facing pressure due to ongoing domestic easing policies [2] - Emerging market currencies are under threat from capital outflows, which may lead to sharp declines in their exchange rates [2] - The Chinese yuan is showing resilience, with onshore markets remaining stable and offshore yuan fluctuations being manageable [2] Group 3 - IEXS is committed to empowering traders by providing comprehensive support in the complex market environment created by the interest rate hike [2][3] - The company offers deep market insights, real-time analysis of Federal Reserve policies, and economic data to anticipate market sentiment shifts [2] - IEXS provides a dual-direction mechanism for trading, allowing traders to capitalize on both rising and falling dollar scenarios [2][3] Group 4 - The company emphasizes the importance of professional analysis and robust tools to help traders navigate the heightened volatility and identify trends [3] - IEXS offers a smart risk control system that includes real-time alerts and automated profit and loss management tools to ensure capital safety [2][3] - The trading experience is enhanced by a stable, low-latency trading system that ensures precise execution during critical market movements [2][3]

Group 1 - Michael Hartnett's prediction of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" has partially materialized, with the S&P 500 index surging 5% following the announcement of a trade agreement framework [1] - Hartnett identifies the best and worst performing assets for 2025, with oil expected to decline by 12% and gold projected to rise by 21% [1] - Key levels to watch include a 5% yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries, a 100-point level on the dollar index, and a 5000-point level on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) [1] Group 2 - A potential combination of rising bond yields and a declining dollar could lead to a sell-off in U.S. equities, with 5% yield seen as a critical threshold [2] - Emerging market stocks are predicted to be the core engine of a new bull market, supported by a weaker dollar, peaked bond yields, and a boost from the Chinese economy [2] - The "Riyadh Agreement" driven by Trump is key to lowering oil prices, facilitating increased production from Saudi Arabia and Russia in exchange for sanctions relief [2] Group 3 - Hartnett warns that bond yields will reveal the ultimate outcome of U.S. policy, with a preference for a scenario of declining yields and deflation by 2025 [3] - The removal of the AAA rating by Moody's has cast a shadow over the long-term bond market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the skepticism of Michael Hartnett, a prominent strategist at Bank of America, regarding the sustainability of the stock market rebound despite ongoing trade negotiations. He emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors and potential risks associated with asset price de-leveraging [1][2][4]. Group 1: Key Trading Strategies - Hartnett suggests three key trading strategies: buying the expectation and selling the fact post-trade agreement, maintaining a short position on the dollar until the Federal Reserve is forced to cut rates, and going long on 5-year U.S. Treasuries until the Republican budget confirms future tax cuts/extensions [2][7]. - He believes that the market's upward momentum will likely be driven by three macro factors: the China deal, global rate cuts, and strong consumer demand [3][8]. Group 2: Market Risks - The primary risk for a bear market stems from the de-leveraging effect on asset prices, particularly if the combination of Trump and Powell leads to a loss of control over long-term interest rates. This could result in rising rates and increased pressure on debt chains [4][9]. - Hartnett warns that if investors stop buying long-term Treasuries, it could lead to a significant market correction, especially given that global debt reached a record high of $324 trillion in the first quarter of this year [4]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Outlook - Hartnett's long-term investment outlook includes a preference for bonds over stocks, international stocks over U.S. stocks, and gold over the dollar, based on the conflict between excessive positioning in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative and new populist policies [6]. - He anticipates a structural shift in asset allocation from the traditional 60/40 stock-bond mix to a more diversified approach involving cash, gold, stocks, and bonds [10][17]. Group 4: Economic and Political Context - The article highlights that the 2020s are witnessing a macro shift characterized by the end of excessive monetary and fiscal expansion, a reversal of globalization, and rising populist pressures, which could impact capital and labor dynamics [11]. - Historical parallels are drawn to significant economic events, suggesting that the current environment may lead to similar structural transformations [12]. Group 5: Artificial Intelligence Outlook - Despite a generally cold economic environment, Hartnett remains optimistic about artificial intelligence, viewing it as a transformative force that could support earnings through productivity gains [15]. - However, he notes potential risks associated with AI, including the possibility of increased unemployment or pressure for wealth taxes if productivity gains do not translate into job security [16].

Market Performance - On May 9, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.29% and a weekly decline of 0.16%, the S&P 500 down 0.07% with a weekly decline of 0.47%, and the Nasdaq flat with a weekly decline of 0.27% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel up 2%, while Nvidia, Netflix, Google, and Meta experienced slight declines [2] Investment Trends - According to Bank of America analysts, the rebound in the US stock market may have ended, as investors are in a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phase, making further increases unlikely [5] - In the past four weeks, US stock markets saw redemptions totaling $24.8 billion, the largest in two years [5] Notable Stock Movements - Lyft surged over 28%, marking its best single-day performance since February 2024, while Insulet Corp. rose nearly 21%, its best performance since November 2022 [2] - Tesla's stock increased by 4.72%, closing at $298.26, with a market capitalization of $960.68 billion, adding $43.3 billion in value overnight [2] Currency and Commodity Updates - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2399, appreciating by 51 points from the previous trading day [12] - Gold prices rose, with spot gold up 0.60% to $3,325.49 per ounce, and New York gold up 0.77% to $3,331.46 per ounce [12] - International crude oil futures settled up over 1%, with WTI crude oil rising by $1.11 to $61.02 per barrel, and Brent crude oil up $1.07 to $63.91 per barrel, both showing weekly gains of over 4% [15] Trade Agreements - On May 8, President Trump announced a new trade agreement with the UK, partially retracting tariffs in specific sectors and expanding market access for certain products [17] - The agreement includes a 10% tariff on the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US, with a 25% tariff on any excess [17] - Trump indicated that if the trade agreement is combined with tax cuts, it could be a good time to invest in stocks [18]