Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced a significant drop of nearly $100 from its recent high due to profit-taking after the U.S. government reopened, indicating a decline in speculative sentiment [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming December meeting, with the probability of a rate cut now slightly above 49%, showing a notable decrease [3]. - The geopolitical situation is expected to remain relatively calm in the last one and a half months of the year, as Trump's tariff policies face challenges and may require reassessment [3]. - The holiday season in December is likely to reduce trading activity and liquidity in the market [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Despite maintaining a long-term upward trend, the international gold price has seen two rapid increases that have exhausted buying momentum, particularly the surge from September to October [4]. - The consecutive declines after October 21 have impacted bullish confidence, which may take time to recover, especially in the absence of significant fundamental stimuli [4]. - If the year-end market is driven by technical trends, gold prices may continue to fluctuate around the $4000 per ounce mark, with a potential drop to the support level of $3750 per ounce if previous lows are breached [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the unexpected decline in the ADP employment data for September has intensified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October [1][6][12] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 50,000 jobs, and a revision of previous data showed a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs over the past year [6][8] - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by a slowdown in the labor market and rising inflation, creating a challenging scenario for the Federal Reserve to balance economic growth and inflation control [7][8] Group 2 - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, which has raised concerns in the market, particularly affecting the release of economic data that the Federal Reserve relies on for decision-making [9][10][11] - The shutdown has led to the suspension of various public services and the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal employees, which could further complicate the economic outlook [10][11] - Analysts suggest that if the government shutdown continues, it may lead to a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, potentially maintaining the guidance from September [12]

来源：中国黄金网 基本面方面，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，完全支持美联储9月议息会议的25个基点降息。展望未来，可能需要进一步调整货币政策，以在恢复物价稳定的 同时，为劳动力市场提供必要支持。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比警告称，不应匆忙开启一系列降息，并表示就业市场的放缓并不预示着美国经济衰退即将来临。市场定价表明投资者预计美联储 今年还将再进行两次25个基点的降息。美联储最新的经济预测显示，微弱多数的美联储官员支持今年再进行两次或更多次降息。 日内数据重点关注美国第二季度实际国内生产总值年化季率终值、核心个人消费支出物价指数年化季率终值、8月耐用品订单月率等经济数据。此外，美 联储多位官员仍将陆续发表讲话，投资者需密切关注。 从技术上看，国际金价或高位震荡，高点至3791美元/盎司后小幅回落，周线随机指标严重超买，且乖离率偏大，行情有回调需求，本周多空分水岭为 3673美元/盎司，目前在分水岭上方运行，说明当前市场仍是多头占有一定优势，但须谨防多头获利了结出现回调走势。上行方面，关注3790~3800美元/ 盎司区间的压力。下行方面，支撑位先关注3710美元/盎司附近，若有效跌破该位置，支持则调整至3690美元/盎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since 2025 and signaling the start of a new monetary easing cycle globally [2][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Rate Cut - The rate cut is primarily due to the persistent weakness in the U.S. labor market since May, reflecting a "preventive rate cut" characteristic as the Fed seeks to balance deteriorating employment and inflation pressures [5][6]. - The August non-farm payroll data showed only 22,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a sharp decline in job growth [5][6]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a possibility of two more rate cuts before the end of the year, with the Fed's dot plot indicating potential cuts in October and December, each by 25 basis points [7][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding inflation trends may complicate the rate cut process in the following year [7]. Group 3: Impact on China - The Fed's rate cut expands the space for monetary policy adjustments in China, indirectly affecting the Chinese stock and real estate markets through domestic macro policy changes [5][12]. - The potential for a passive appreciation of the RMB is noted, as the Fed's actions may reduce the extent of the U.S.-China interest rate differential [12][17]. Group 4: Global Market Implications - The rate cut is expected to support U.S. equities by reducing corporate financing costs, although the immediate impact may be limited due to prior market expectations [11][12]. - The global bond market is likely to benefit from increased liquidity, although the domestic bond market in China may not see significant changes due to its focus on local economic factors [15][16]. Group 5: Gold Market Outlook - The Fed's rate cut is viewed positively for international gold prices, which have already risen approximately 40% this year, with expectations of continued upward pressure due to geopolitical risks and the future trajectory of the U.S. dollar [19][20]. Group 6: Monitoring Future Economic Indicators - Key indicators to watch include U.S. inflation trends and China's export performance, which may influence future policy decisions and potential new stimulus measures [20].

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $3637 per ounce, showing a slight decline, with a previous peak of $3674 earlier in the week [2] - The international gold price saw a minor increase of 0.26%, closing at $3643.21 per ounce, driven by signals of a weak U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of the year [2] - Analysts remain generally bullish on gold, with expectations of a high-level consolidation this week, particularly on Monday and Tuesday, before potential volatility around the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday and Thursday [2][3] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, gold has shown a lack of clear directional movement since peaking at $3675, with alternating daily closes indicating a consolidation phase under a bullish trend [3] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3600 and $3500, with a breach of $3600 potentially indicating a shift in market strength [3] - The domestic gold market is also experiencing high-level consolidation, with support levels at 830 for Shanghai gold and 820 for accumulated gold, suggesting potential rebounds if these levels hold [3]

上周国际油价上涨 原油期货方面，上周，以色列在卡塔尔首都多哈发动针对哈马斯的突袭，以及俄罗斯无人机进入波兰领 空等事件，一度引发市场对中东和东欧潜在供应风险的担忧，助推国际油价上涨。上周，纽约油价累计 上涨1.33%，布伦特油价上涨2.27%。 来源：央视财经 【#金价一周三个交易日创历史新高#，#超级央行周来了#】上周，意外低于预期的美国8月通胀数据以 及持续疲软的就业数据，巩固了市场对于美联储即将开启降息的预期，叠加芯片股和AI概念股显著上 涨，推动美国三大股指上周集体上涨。其中，道指累计上涨0.95%，标普500指数上涨1.59%，纳指上涨 2.03%。 本周，全球金融市场迎来"超级央行周"。从周三开始，美联储以及英国、日本、加拿大等多个主要经济 体央行将陆续公布最新利率决议，各国货币政策方向呈现分化态势。 最受市场关注的无疑是美联储利率决议。近期，美国劳动力市场的疲软迹象以及通胀反弹的趋势，给美 联储开启新一轮降息铺平道路。市场人士认为，美联储在当地时间本周三的会议上宣布降息25个基点将 会是大概率事件。而投资者更为关注的是，美联储将在本次会议上发布的美国经济展望中，如何描述美 国经济现状和通胀前景。 ...

美国8月份"小非农"录得5.4万人，低于预期的6.5万人，前值从10.4万人上修至10.6万人。 国际金价本周涨幅属实不小，总体而言在本周前三天市场强势拉升，不断的突破历史前高，并且创出了 3578美元每盎司的高价，这样的走势，临近非农数据，市场已经公布了小非农数据进行参考，那么小非 农透漏出了那些信息，这些信息我们应该如何理解，这将有助于我们今天对美国劳工部数据的分析。 这是昨晚市场公布的小非农数据，显然就业市场的疲软已经比较明显了。这是从今年以来小非农数据， 几乎都是呈现一路下行的，小非农数据在我看来更加接近真实性，毕竟数据统计衡量美国私营部门非农 就业人数 ...

Group 1: Oil Market - International oil prices experienced the largest weekly decline since late June, with U.S. oil dropping by 5.12% and Brent oil by 4.42% last week [3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical factors, including the anticipation of a potential meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders, which raised hopes for a peace agreement in Ukraine, leading to a reduction in geopolitical risk premium [3] - Additionally, the "OPEC+" group is expected to increase production in September, further contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices [3] Group 2: Gold Market - International gold prices rose by 2.69% last week, driven by multiple factors including the U.S. government's nomination for a vacant Federal Reserve board position, which has increased market optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [6] - Tariff policies have also impacted the gold market, with two Swiss gold refining companies reducing or halting gold exports to the U.S., contributing to the upward movement in gold prices [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the price of gold in Shanghai on July 28, 2025, which is 769.11 CNY per gram, slightly higher than the international gold price of 768.09 CNY per gram by 1.02 CNY [1] Group 2 - The article mentions the current status of spot gold, indicating its relevance in the market [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that on July 24, 2025, the morning gold price in Shanghai was 777.76 CNY per gram, which is lower than the international gold price of 778.47 CNY per gram by 0.71 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the current status of spot gold prices [3]