2025年全年，CPI与上年持平，PPI同比下降2.6%，物价运行总体呈现低位温和回升态势。 国家统计局发布最新数据显示，2025年12月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨 0.8%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨 0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 2025年12月份，CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%。国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，环 比上涨主要受除能源外的工业消费品价格上涨影响。扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨0.6%。提振消费 政策效果持续显现，叠加元旦临近，居民购物娱乐需求增加，通信工具、母婴用品、文娱耐用消费品、 家用器具价格均有上涨，涨幅在1.4%至3.0%之间。食品价格上涨0.3%。 CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高。董莉娟表示，同比涨 幅扩大主要是食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。食品价格上涨1.1%，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月增加约0.17个 百分点。 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以上。"这充分说明，以CPI为 表征的 ...

上周，美联储降息并启动购买短期美债，投资者谨慎看待AI行业高估值前景的同时，看好降息对实体 经济的提振作用，资金多日从高估值的科技股流出，流向对利率波动敏感的金融、工业等周期股，板块 轮动使得美国三大股指上周走势分化。从全周来看，道指累计上涨超1%，标普500指数下跌约0.6%，纳 指下跌超1.6%。 上周国际金价与银价均上涨 贵金属方面，美联储降息叠加扩表，推动美债收益率下行以及美元走软，国际金价上周上涨约2%。白 银期价上周屡创新高，背后受到供应短缺、库存紧张以及工业需求猛增等因素推动。尽管上周五单日大 跌约4%，但从全周来看，白银期价上周仍上涨5%。 上周国际油价显著下跌 原油期货方面，投资者上周主要聚焦俄乌谈判进展，部分投资者看好俄乌达成和平协议的前景，因而陆 续减仓，以应对俄罗斯石油重返国际市场的可能，国际油价上周显著下跌。从全周来看，纽约原油期货 主力合约价格下跌4.39%，布伦特原油期货主力合约价格下跌4.13%。 本周英国央行与欧洲央行将公布最新利率决议 本周，全球多个发达经济体的央行将陆续公布最新利率决议，其中，英国央行与欧洲央行的货币政策最 受关注。 英国方面，由于经济增长的疲软态势比预期 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest level since March 2024, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a significant increase in vegetable prices, which turned from a decline of 2.9% in October to an increase of 0.2% in November, contributing positively to the CPI [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year in November, indicating a continued upward trend [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, attributed to seasonal demand increases and rising prices in certain industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline rate widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, influenced by high comparison bases from the previous year [4][5] - The prices in key industries such as coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showed a narrowing decline, indicating improvements in market competition and capacity management [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The economic outlook suggests that core CPI will continue to rise steadily, supported by coordinated policy efforts to boost consumption and improve living standards [3][6] - The PPI is expected to decline by approximately 0.5% year-on-year in 2026, with a significant narrowing of the decline, driven by ongoing "anti-involution" policies and the rapid development of emerging industries [6]

今日内容 周二国际金价震荡收涨，开盘报4190.11美元/盎司，最高上行至4221.40美元/盎司，最低下探至4169.85 美元/盎司，最终报收于4206.59美元/盎司。 周二在岸人民币对美元收盘报7.0693，较上一交易日涨20个基点。人民币对美元中间价报7.0773，较上 一交易日调贬9个基点。美元指数涨0.14%报99.2407。 央行周二开展1173亿元7天逆回购操作，当日有1563亿元7天逆回购到期，因此单日净回笼390亿元。 经济数据方面，美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）最新数据显示，截至11月22日的四周内，美国私营雇主 平均每周新增4750个就业岗位，结束了此前连续四周的就业流失。另外，美国10月JOLTS职位空缺767 万人，远超预期的711.7万人。宏观事件方面，美国总统特朗普表示，他将把支持立即大幅降息作为选 择新任美联储主席的"试金石"，并称可能通过调整关税政策帮助降低部分商品价格。此外，哈塞特称美 联储有充足空间大幅降息，市场宽松预期推动下，国际金价震荡收涨。 风险提示：近期国际金价波动较大，市场不确定性较高，请投资者注意风险管理。 图一：伦敦现货黄金与上金所Au9999收盘价 图 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced a significant drop of nearly $100 from its recent high due to profit-taking after the U.S. government reopened, indicating a decline in speculative sentiment [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming December meeting, with the probability of a rate cut now slightly above 49%, showing a notable decrease [3]. - The geopolitical situation is expected to remain relatively calm in the last one and a half months of the year, as Trump's tariff policies face challenges and may require reassessment [3]. - The holiday season in December is likely to reduce trading activity and liquidity in the market [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Despite maintaining a long-term upward trend, the international gold price has seen two rapid increases that have exhausted buying momentum, particularly the surge from September to October [4]. - The consecutive declines after October 21 have impacted bullish confidence, which may take time to recover, especially in the absence of significant fundamental stimuli [4]. - If the year-end market is driven by technical trends, gold prices may continue to fluctuate around the $4000 per ounce mark, with a potential drop to the support level of $3750 per ounce if previous lows are breached [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the unexpected decline in the ADP employment data for September has intensified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October [1][6][12] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 50,000 jobs, and a revision of previous data showed a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs over the past year [6][8] - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by a slowdown in the labor market and rising inflation, creating a challenging scenario for the Federal Reserve to balance economic growth and inflation control [7][8] Group 2 - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, which has raised concerns in the market, particularly affecting the release of economic data that the Federal Reserve relies on for decision-making [9][10][11] - The shutdown has led to the suspension of various public services and the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal employees, which could further complicate the economic outlook [10][11] - Analysts suggest that if the government shutdown continues, it may lead to a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, potentially maintaining the guidance from September [12]

Group 1 - The San Francisco Fed President Daly fully supports the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, indicating that further adjustments may be needed to restore price stability while supporting the labor market [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warns against hasty rate cuts, stating that a slowdown in the job market does not necessarily indicate an impending recession for the U.S. economy [1] - Market pricing suggests that investors expect the Federal Reserve to implement two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year, with a slight majority of Fed officials supporting additional cuts in their latest economic forecasts [1] Group 2 - Key economic data to watch includes the final annualized GDP growth rate for Q2, the final annualized core personal consumption expenditures price index, and the monthly durable goods orders for August [1] - Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, and investors are advised to pay close attention to their remarks [1] Group 3 - Technically, international gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations, having peaked at $3,791 per ounce before a slight pullback, with the weekly stochastic indicator showing severe overbought conditions [1] - The market is currently above the critical support level of $3,673 per ounce, indicating a slight bullish advantage, but caution is advised regarding potential profit-taking leading to a pullback [1] - Resistance levels to watch on the upside are between $3,790 and $3,800 per ounce, while initial support is around $3,710 per ounce, with further support at $3,690 per ounce if the former is breached [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since 2025 and signaling the start of a new monetary easing cycle globally [2][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Rate Cut - The rate cut is primarily due to the persistent weakness in the U.S. labor market since May, reflecting a "preventive rate cut" characteristic as the Fed seeks to balance deteriorating employment and inflation pressures [5][6]. - The August non-farm payroll data showed only 22,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a sharp decline in job growth [5][6]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a possibility of two more rate cuts before the end of the year, with the Fed's dot plot indicating potential cuts in October and December, each by 25 basis points [7][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding inflation trends may complicate the rate cut process in the following year [7]. Group 3: Impact on China - The Fed's rate cut expands the space for monetary policy adjustments in China, indirectly affecting the Chinese stock and real estate markets through domestic macro policy changes [5][12]. - The potential for a passive appreciation of the RMB is noted, as the Fed's actions may reduce the extent of the U.S.-China interest rate differential [12][17]. Group 4: Global Market Implications - The rate cut is expected to support U.S. equities by reducing corporate financing costs, although the immediate impact may be limited due to prior market expectations [11][12]. - The global bond market is likely to benefit from increased liquidity, although the domestic bond market in China may not see significant changes due to its focus on local economic factors [15][16]. Group 5: Gold Market Outlook - The Fed's rate cut is viewed positively for international gold prices, which have already risen approximately 40% this year, with expectations of continued upward pressure due to geopolitical risks and the future trajectory of the U.S. dollar [19][20]. Group 6: Monitoring Future Economic Indicators - Key indicators to watch include U.S. inflation trends and China's export performance, which may influence future policy decisions and potential new stimulus measures [20].

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $3637 per ounce, showing a slight decline, with a previous peak of $3674 earlier in the week [2] - The international gold price saw a minor increase of 0.26%, closing at $3643.21 per ounce, driven by signals of a weak U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of the year [2] - Analysts remain generally bullish on gold, with expectations of a high-level consolidation this week, particularly on Monday and Tuesday, before potential volatility around the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday and Thursday [2][3] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, gold has shown a lack of clear directional movement since peaking at $3675, with alternating daily closes indicating a consolidation phase under a bullish trend [3] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3600 and $3500, with a breach of $3600 potentially indicating a shift in market strength [3] - The domestic gold market is also experiencing high-level consolidation, with support levels at 830 for Shanghai gold and 820 for accumulated gold, suggesting potential rebounds if these levels hold [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by weaker-than-expected inflation and employment data, which has led to a rise in gold prices and stock indices [1][2][3]. - International gold prices increased by 0.91% last week, with three trading days reaching historical closing highs, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut [2]. - The upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" will see major central banks, including the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, announce their latest interest rate decisions, with market focus on the Fed's potential 25 basis point cut [3][4]. Group 2 - The U.S. stock indices collectively rose last week, with the Dow Jones up 0.95%, the S&P 500 up 1.59%, and the Nasdaq up 2.03%, influenced by the performance of chip and AI stocks [1]. - Oil prices also saw an increase, with New York oil prices rising by 1.33% and Brent oil prices by 2.27%, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe [1]. - The Bank of England is expected to maintain its interest rates amid conflicting internal opinions, while the Bank of Japan is likely to keep rates unchanged but may consider a rate hike later this year [3][4].