Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and potential investment opportunities in copper, referred to as the "Doctor of Commodities," highlighting its significance as a major commodity second only to gold in the context of a changing global landscape [3]. Group 1: Copper's Properties and Uses - Copper (Cu) is a transition metal with a long history of use in various applications, including tools and currency in ancient China [4][5]. - Its excellent conductivity and malleability make it essential in modern industries, particularly in electrical wiring and electronic components [5][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper is primarily driven by the power industry, making it a key indicator of economic health [6][9]. - Current trends show a tightening supply due to concentrated production in countries like Chile, which accounts for 28% of global copper output, and a lack of significant new discoveries in the past decade [12][17]. - From 2024 onwards, global copper reserves are projected to decline, indicating increasing scarcity [16]. Group 3: Demand Growth Factors - Demand for copper is expected to remain strong due to the growth of renewable energy sectors, including lithium batteries, solar power, and wind energy [18][20]. - Industrialization in countries like India is contributing significantly to copper consumption, with a reported average annual growth of 21% in demand from 2021 to 2024 [18][21]. - The return of manufacturing to the U.S. and Europe, along with military expenditures, is also driving copper demand, with military consumption projected at 167,000 tons in 2024 [21]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investing in copper mining stocks is suggested as a more viable option for individuals, with a focus on companies with strong production capacity, reserves, and cost efficiency [24]. - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a leading player in the copper sector, known for its large reserves and low costs, while other companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Jinchuan Group are noted for their growth potential [24].

Core Viewpoint - Africa is poised for significant growth opportunities driven by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is expected to enhance regional integration and boost demand for consumer goods, industrial products, and infrastructure [4][6]. Economic Overview - Africa's GDP growth from 2018 to 2023 has been stagnant at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4%, matching global growth rates [5]. - The economic structure remains largely unchanged, with agriculture, industry, and services contributing 15%, 39%, and 46% to GDP respectively in 2023 [5]. - Africa's integration into the global value chain is low, with merchandise trade accounting for only 2.8% of global trade in 2022, down from 3.5% in 2012 [5]. Trade and Industry - AfCFTA has led to a CAGR of 11.8% in intra-African trade from 2021 to 2023, but intra-African trade still only accounts for 15% of total trade, significantly lower than Europe and Asia [6]. - The internal trade of Africa is characterized by a high proportion of intermediate and manufactured goods, which could foster industrial development and regional capacity integration [6]. - Africa's foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow in 2023 was only 4.0% of global FDI, indicating a need for improvement in attracting investment [20]. Resource Potential - Africa possesses vast mineral resources, holding approximately 8% of the world's oil reserves and over 90% of platinum group metals [7][41]. - The reliance on resource extraction can lead to economic vulnerabilities, as seen in countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has become overly dependent on mining [49][50]. - Botswana serves as a positive example, successfully utilizing diamond revenues to diversify its economy and improve social welfare [52]. Infrastructure Challenges - Africa faces significant infrastructure deficits, with an estimated investment gap of $1.7 trillion by 2040, representing 1.2% of cumulative GDP [8][59]. - Transportation costs in Africa are high, accounting for about 40% of final goods prices, due to inadequate road networks and high logistics costs [8][63]. - The energy infrastructure is also lacking, with nearly half of the population lacking access to electricity, despite Africa having 60% of the world's solar resources [8][60]. China-Africa Relations - China's direct investment in Africa reached approximately $4 billion in 2023, accounting for 2.2% of China's total outbound investment and 7.6% of Africa's FDI [9][10]. - China is Africa's largest trading partner, with trade volume expected to reach about $295.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a growing economic relationship [10][37]. - The trade pattern continues to be characterized by Africa exporting primary products in exchange for manufactured goods from China [39].

中国经济正处于新旧动能的转换期，因此市场上对经济中长期问题的讨论很多，且多数都聚焦在内部。但笔者认为，在探讨"内"的同时，也应该看到"外"。实 际上，外的潜在空间更大，且内、外实际上是一体、互为促进的，如何打好这张"外"的牌可能对我国中长期发展的影响更深远。 改革开放以来，中国经济的高增长得益于"三化"——"工业化、城镇化、国际化"。 建国初期的三十年为工业化奠定了坚实的基础。以此为基础，随着改革开 放的推进，工业化进程迅速加快。一方面，这为农村劳动力向城市转移创造了条件；另一方面，城镇化的推进伴随着居民收入的提高，进一步刺激了商品的生 产。与此同时，快速发展的工业化使中国深度融入全球分工体系，凭借低成本要素与全球产业链紧密融合，不仅提升了全球生产效率，也反过来推动中国工业 的迭代升级和持续发展。经过40多年的快速发展，中国已经成为全球第一大工业制造国和货物贸易国，第二大经济体。中国的工业体系不仅大，而且全——是 全世界唯一拥有联合国产业分类当中全部工业门类的国家。 随着经济从高速增长阶段进入高质量发展阶段，"三化"也在进入新的阶段。 当发展阶段变化时，"三化"也在从旧模式、旧视角转为新局面，而在此过程中则蕴 ...