培养一个健全的人格，获得如何生活的方向，这更为重要而根本。 【编者按】当 AI 能写出工整的论文，当短视频吞噬深度思考的时间，文化的根脉该往何处延伸？ 95岁史学大家许倬云将一生对教育、文化与未来的思考凝结成《以远见超越未见》。这部遗作深度剖析 当今时代教育、大学、国学、传统与现代等66个热门话题，为当代青年指明方向，提供新的思考维度。 经出版社授权，第一财经节选《全球化时代的教育与文化》，以飨读者。 谈论当今时代的教育，我们首先必须讨论教育的基本问题。我们该如何定义教育？教育当然不只是"上 课"而已，教育代表的是一种制度。我们的孩子，这种人类的幼体，从生物体转变成社会体，转变成文 化体的一部分，需要经由教育才能实现。也就是说，在其成长过程中，我们要把资讯输入他的头脑之 内，让他逐渐懂得如何获取资讯，怎样累积、解释资讯，让他终于可以经由资讯作为通道，与他人沟 通、交换，并参与到社群或者文化、体育活动的运作中。 资讯是原材料，也就是我们所谓的"知识"；往上一层，不同的知识累积起来，亦即"学术"；更高一层， 就上升为"智慧"了。所以严格而论，出生时空白一片的小孩子，其实就像一张张"白纸"，教育是"给这 些白纸染上 ...

Core Argument - The article argues that population movement in early modern England is multifaceted, encompassing both "standard" long-distance migration that supports urbanization and "non-standard" short-distance migration that does not directly contribute to urban growth [1][3][8]. Group 1: Types of Population Movement - "Standard" population movement refers to long-distance, orderly migration from rural areas to small towns and then to larger cities, which has historically driven urbanization in England [1][4]. - "Non-standard" population movement involves short-distance, disorderly migration primarily occurring between villages, which has been undervalued in academic discourse despite its prevalence [2][3][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Data - Prior to the Industrial Revolution, the urban population in England never exceeded 25%, with only about 15% in the early 16th century, indicating that less than 20% of rural populations integrated into cities through permanent migration [4][5]. - Over 80% of the population engaged in non-standard movement, with most residents moving within a distance of approximately 10 miles, often for seasonal work [4][5]. Group 3: Societal Implications - Seasonal migration has deep historical roots, with evidence of frequent movement among villagers during agricultural busy seasons, reflecting a long-standing pattern of labor mobility [5][6]. - The interconnectedness created by various forms of population movement facilitated the exchange of labor, resources, and ideas, contributing to the formation of a unified national market [6][8]. Group 4: Political and Social Consequences - The phenomenon of excessive mobility and downward social mobility among migrants led to governmental attempts to restrict migration, particularly during the Tudor and Stuart periods, due to the social unrest it caused [7][8]. - The influx of "livelihood migrants" into urban areas exacerbated social tensions and contributed to political radicalization, setting the stage for the English Civil War and the subsequent bourgeois revolution [7][8].

中华人民共和国成立尤其是改革开放以来，我们国家迅速从农耕社会进入工业社会，从农耕文明进入城 市文明，创造了经济快速发展和社会长期稳定的举世瞩目两大奇迹。其中最显著的特征，是我国用30多 年快速工业化与城市化"双轮驱动"，走过西方国家用了200多年的里程，将一个传统的农耕国塑造成工 业化与城市化协同发展的现代国家，实现了人类社会文明形态的成功跨越，极大改变了中华民族的命 运。进入新时代，迈上新征程，中国式现代化建设就是要在工业化、城市化基础上，锚定本世纪中叶建 国百年目标，把我国建设成为社会主义现代化强国。 工业化与城市化齐头并进"神话" 从大历史观视野理解人类社会文明形态进程，具有从农耕文明演进到工业文明、再由工业文明进入现代 文明的内在逻辑。农耕文明是以土地等为生产资料，包括农业生产技术及相应的生产关系，以及由此产 生的思想观念、生活礼俗、民族心理等构成的社会文明形态；工业文明是以工业化为重要标志、机械化 大生产占主导地位、城市化为基本支撑的一种社会文明形态；现代文明是从传统经济向现代经济、传统 社会向现代社会、传统政治向现代政治、传统文明向现代文明等实现转型的社会文明形态。 依据形成共识的人类文明进步形态 ...

12月16日，在"国是论坛：2025年会"上，北京大学国家发展研究院副院长黄卓结合经济产业视角，回顾 过去20年中国实体经济的三大机遇，并预判未来20年企业出海、新消费、人工智能将成为驱动经济发展 的新机遇。 黄卓指出，个人与企业的成功离不开对经济趋势的把握。回溯过去20年，中国实体经济的三大机遇深刻 影响了发展进程。其一为全球化机遇，自改革开放尤其是2001年加入世贸组织后，中国深度融入全球分 工，企业借力学习先进技术与管理经验，生产效率提升，"世界工厂"地位确立，这一趋势也使得"国 际"类专业在早年成为热门选择。 其二是城市化趋势，人口向城镇、大城市聚集推动城市化率攀升，房地产行业崛起，地方政府通过土地 出让金完善基建、招商引资，形成良性循环，买房决策也成为影响一线城市居民发展的关键变量。 第二，人口结构变化催生的新消费机遇。黄卓认为，消费对中国经济的贡献仍有巨大提升空间，中央经 济工作会议将提振消费置于重要位置。扩大消费需政府与企业协同发力：政府需提高居民收入、完善公 共服务与社保，破除消费堵点；企业则需精准对接新消费趋势。 当前中国消费市场呈现"K形"结构，既存在对性价比消费的偏好，如商场地下一层餐饮 ...

Core Insights - The report by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs predicts that by 2050, two-thirds of the global population growth will occur in urban areas, primarily in Asia and Africa [1][2] - It highlights a systematic relationship between urbanization levels and national income, indicating that higher urban population ratios correlate with increased economic productivity and income levels [2][3] Urbanization Trends - The proportion of the global population living in urban areas increased from 20% in 1950 to an expected 45% in 2025, with the number of megacities (over 10 million inhabitants) rising from 8 in 1975 to 33 in 2025, over half of which will be in Asia [1][2] - The report identifies that over half of the urban population growth from 2025 to 2050 will come from seven countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia [1] Economic and Social Implications - Urbanization is seen as a fundamental driver of economic development, enhancing labor market activity and providing better access to healthcare, education, and employment opportunities [2][3] - However, rapid urban population growth can lead to significant urban pressures, including housing shortages, traffic congestion, and strained public services [3] Challenges of Urban Expansion - The report warns that unplanned urban expansion has outpaced population growth, leading to increased infrastructure costs, longer commuting times, and the encroachment on agricultural land, threatening food security and ecosystems [3] - Approximately 1 billion people live in informal settlements lacking basic services such as clean water and sanitation [3] Policy Recommendations - The report advocates for comprehensive urbanization strategies at national and city levels, emphasizing the need for coordinated governance to manage urban growth sustainably [4][5] - It suggests prioritizing compact city development to reduce land consumption and emissions while protecting ecosystems, and integrating urban and rural governance to enhance connectivity and reduce disparities [4][5] Addressing Future Challenges - To tackle issues related to population growth, aging, and informal settlements, the report recommends improving housing, transportation, and sanitation facilities in rapidly urbanizing areas [5] - It also calls for the development of "age-friendly cities" and climate-resilient infrastructure to better prepare for climate risks [5]

Core Insights - The United Nations report indicates that over 80% of the global population now lives in urban areas, a significant increase from 55% in 2018, highlighting the importance of sustainable urban environments for health and the planet [1][2] Group 1: Urbanization Statistics - The report establishes new criteria for defining urban areas, requiring a minimum population of 50,000 and a density of at least 1,500 people per square kilometer [1] - Current estimates show that 45% of the global population lives in cities, with 36% in towns, leading to a total of 81% urban residents [2] - Projections suggest that by 2050, 83% of the global population will reside in urban areas, with rural populations peaking in the 2040s before declining [2] Group 2: Drivers of Urbanization - Urbanization drivers vary by region: in East and South Asia, it is primarily due to rural-to-urban migration for education and job opportunities; in Europe and North America, international migration plays a larger role; while in sub-Saharan Africa, higher birth rates in cities contribute to growth [2] Group 3: Environmental and Health Impacts - Urban expansion can lead to increased carbon emissions if public transport is poorly planned, while effective planning can result in more energy-efficient transportation systems [3] - Urban residents face health risks from air pollution and extreme temperatures, but cities also provide better access to healthcare and social opportunities [3] - The report emphasizes the need to enhance urban livability through increased green spaces to improve health outcomes [3]

Summary of SKF Capital Markets Day 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: SKF (OTCPK:SKFR.Y) - **Event**: Capital Markets Day 2025 - **Date**: November 11, 2025 - **Focus**: Separation into two distinct businesses: Industrial and Automotive [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments Separation and Value Creation - SKF is splitting into two focused businesses: Industrial and Automotive, to unlock value and enhance growth potential [6][7] - The separation is expected to allow both businesses to thrive independently, akin to two trees that will grow better when spaced apart [16][19] - The automotive sector is undergoing significant transformation due to electrification, while the industrial sector focuses on shorter contracts and smaller batches [17] Financial Targets Post-Separation - **Industrial Business**: Targeting growth of over 4% annually, with an adjusted operating margin expected to exceed 19% in the long term [20][21] - **Automotive Business**: Aiming for high single-digit operating margins and growth ahead of the automotive market [22] Strategic Framework and Historical Context - SKF has implemented a strategic framework called "Intelligent and Clean Growth" since 2022, focusing on regionalization, automation, and portfolio management [7][12] - The company has faced challenges, including eight consecutive quarters of negative organic growth, partly due to self-inflicted portfolio management decisions [13][14] Growth Opportunities in Industrial Sector - SKF is focusing on four megatrends: digitalization, decarbonization, urbanization, and geopolitical tensions, which are expected to drive demand in various industries [48][50] - Key industries benefiting from these trends include industrial mobility and defense, which accounted for 27% of SKF's OEM sales last year [51][52] Specialized Industrial Solutions - SKF is restructuring its industrial business into two segments: Bearing Solutions (75% of net sales) and Specialized Industrial Solutions (25% of net sales) [29][30] - The company aims to enhance profitability in specialized solutions before pursuing aggressive growth [33] Innovation and Customer-Centric Approach - Innovation is emphasized as a key driver for staying competitive, with a focus on co-creating solutions with customers [35][36] - SKF is enhancing its service offerings, which currently account for over 50% of sales, to improve customer relationships and capture aftermarket opportunities [79][80] Commercial Excellence and Pricing Strategy - SKF is transitioning to a value-based pricing model to better reflect the value provided to customers [76][77] - The company has reduced its product portfolio by 25% to simplify operations and enhance customer focus [74] Aftermarket and Service Business - SKF's service and intelligent solutions business has seen a 10% CAGR, with a focus on condition monitoring and predictive maintenance [87] - The company is expanding its service offerings to enhance customer value and operational efficiency [84][85] Future Outlook - SKF is confident in its operational readiness to list the automotive business by mid-2026, with no significant red flags reported [19][18] - The company is committed to leveraging its strengths in both industrial and automotive sectors to achieve long-term growth and profitability [41][42] Additional Important Insights - The company has a strong global footprint and capabilities in manufacturing and R&D, which will support its growth strategies [24] - SKF is focusing on building a robust data-driven supply chain to improve operational effectiveness [37][39] - The company plans to pursue small bolt-on acquisitions to drive growth in the future [34] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during SKF's Capital Markets Day, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial targets, and growth opportunities in both the industrial and automotive sectors.

Group 1: Global Copper Supply and Production - Global copper mine production is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025, revised down from a previous forecast of 2.3%, primarily due to significant accidents at Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa (Democratic Republic of Congo) impacting output [1] - Growth in copper production is mainly attributed to increased output from Kamoa (pre-accident), the expansion project at Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), and ramp-up at the new Malmyzmine mine (Russia) [1] - For 2026, production growth is projected to rise to 2.3%, driven by new capacity releases in several countries, expected improvements in output from Chile, Peru, and Zambia, and recovery in Indonesia's operational rates [1] Group 2: Refined Copper Production - Global refined copper production is anticipated to grow by approximately 3.4% in 2025, supported by ongoing capacity expansion in China and new capacities coming online in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, India, and Indonesia, along with improved operational rates in Zambia [2] - Overall, primary refined copper production is expected to increase by 3%, while secondary refined copper production (from scrap) is projected to grow by 4.5% [3] - In 2026, global refined copper production is expected to see a slight increase of 0.9%, with growth in primary electrolytic refined copper production limited by tight concentrate supply [3] Group 3: Global Refined Copper Consumption - Global refined copper apparent consumption is expected to grow by about 3% in 2025, with China's consumption projected to increase by approximately 3.3% and other regions by 2.5% [4] - In 2026, the growth rate for global refined copper consumption is expected to slow to about 2.1%, primarily due to a decrease in China's consumption growth rate to 1% [5] - Asia is expected to remain the main driver of global growth, while demand in other major copper-consuming regions, particularly the EU and Japan, is expected to remain weak [6] Group 4: Market Balance and Forecast - The global refined copper balance predicts a surplus of approximately 178,000 tons in 2025, followed by a shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026 [7] - The shift from surplus to shortage is attributed to refined copper production falling below previous expectations, constrained by reduced copper concentrate supply [7] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) acknowledges that actual market balance results may differ from forecasts due to unforeseen developments [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of diversifying investments across different asset classes, including both RMB and foreign currency assets, as well as stocks and bonds [2] - It highlights the significance of USD bond funds as a crucial component of investment diversification [2] - A free course is offered to provide systematic knowledge on investing in USD bond funds, along with supplementary materials like course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - The article explains why the long-term profitability of listed companies tends to increase, attributing this to two main factors [5] - The first factor is inflation, where companies can raise prices of their goods and services to counteract inflation, leading to overall revenue and profit growth [6] - The second factor is the improvement in production efficiency, driven by technological advancements and urbanization, which enhances overall societal efficiency and productivity [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that listed companies experience long-term profit growth, which is a primary driver for the upward trend in the stock market [7][10]. Group 2 - The first explanation for long-term profit growth is the inflation theory, where inflation leads to an increase in the money supply and general price levels, allowing companies to raise prices for their goods and services [7][9]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to measure inflation, reflecting the price changes of a basket of 268 basic consumer goods [8]. Group 3 - The second explanation for profit growth is the improvement in production efficiency driven by technological innovation, urbanization, and globalization, which collectively enhance the long-term profitability of listed companies [10]. - Data indicates that technological innovation contributes to over 80% of economic growth, and urban areas with populations over 1 million exhibit approximately 50% higher production efficiency compared to smaller regions [10].