宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 开启"投资于人"新一环——房地产新动 向的信号意义 研究结论 风险提示 每位负责撰写本研究报告全部或部分内容的研究分析师在此作以下声明： ⚫ 产业转型过程中，大城市劳动密集型行业占比减少，技术密集型行业占比增加，可 能会制约劳动者的增加以及地产需求的扩大。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 05 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.c ...

2025年我省重点民生实事"成绩单" 提升就业服务保障能力 开展职业技能培训方面,完成职业技能培训284.1 万人次,新增高技能人才(取证)73.5万人 促就业服务平台方面,累计举办6222场专场招聘 会,组织4.5万名大学生开展就业见习;新建1个省 级综合性零工市场和4个市级、79个县级零工市 场;累计新改建2359个零工驿站和618个"家门 口"就业服务站 开展幼儿园、中小学校园安全能力提升工程 共排查 4.2 万所学校在消防设施和安保器材方面的短 板不足;对3576 所学校实施了校园安全能力提升 提升农村道路和客货邮物流配送服务质效 累计新改建农村公路 7603.2公里;累计新改建 标准化"一点多能"物流快递服务点2122个,新 增客货邮融合线路241条 提升农村普惠养老服务能力 实现1054个乡镇敬老院转型为区域养老服务中心 推进充电基础设施建设 累计开展宫颈癌筛查 84.59万人、乳腺癌筛查 86.69 万人;免费产前筛查覆盖率达到84.89%,新生儿"两 病"筛查率达到99.05%,新生儿听力筛查率达到 98.51%;对4.9万名残疾儿童开展康复救助 开展青少年心理健康服务进村(社区)行动 为2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shifts in fiscal policy and revenue structures in China, highlighting three key transitions: debt expression, tax direction, and expenditure structure, which may influence investor perceptions for 2026 [2][4][11]. Group 1: Fiscal Transitions - The debt expression transition indicates a shift from counter-cyclical to cross-cyclical adjustments, with the narrow deficit rate increasing by 1 percentage point to 4% and new government debt reaching 11.86 trillion yuan, a 2.9 trillion yuan increase from the previous year [4][18]. - By the end of 2025, the focus will shift to maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, moving away from previous increases [5][18]. - The capital market's focus is expected to shift towards fiscal revenue, particularly tax revenue, in 2026 [6][18]. Group 2: Tax Direction Transition - In 2025, both revenue accounts are projected to fall short of budget targets, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, compared to a 2% decline in 2024, primarily due to significant drops in land sales and non-tax revenues [7][21]. - Tax revenue quality is expected to improve, with tax revenue showing a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, contrasting with a 3.4% decline in 2024, leading to a rise in tax revenue's share of public fiscal income to 81.6%, the highest since 2000 [7][21][22]. - Nearly 90% of regions are expected to see revenue growth in 2025, with local public budget revenue projected at 12.21 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase from 2024 [8][22]. Group 3: Expenditure Structure Transition - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure is expected to align more closely with nominal GDP growth, projected at 3.7% for 2025, compared to 2.7% in 2024 [11][31]. - A significant shift in expenditure structure is noted, moving from material investments to human investments, with social welfare and health expenditures increasing by 4.5% and 4.8% respectively, while infrastructure spending is expected to decline by 7.8% [11][12][31]. - The proportion of new special bonds used for non-project investments has risen sharply to 30% in 2025, compared to less than 5% in previous years, indicating a shift in funding priorities [12][32].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the newly implemented childcare subsidy policy in China has received widespread praise and is seen as a significant support for families, marking a major step in direct cash assistance for public welfare [1][2] - As of now, over 30 million infants have received the childcare subsidy, with the national basic standard set at 3,600 yuan per child per year [1][2] - The total budget allocated for the childcare subsidy program in 2025 is approximately 100 billion yuan, with 90.4 billion yuan coming from the central government [2] Group 2 - The implementation of the childcare subsidy is part of a broader strategy to enhance social welfare and stimulate consumption, reflecting a commitment to "investing in people" [3] - The Ministry of Finance is taking practical measures to ensure the effective rollout of the childcare subsidy, including optimizing the application and distribution processes [2][3] - The government aims to strengthen financial support for the subsidy program and improve the management mechanisms to safeguard the funds intended for childcare [3]

陈吉宁感谢世界技能组织给予上海筹办第48届世界技能大赛工作的支持和指导。他说，今年是中 国"十五五"开局之年，在沪举办第48届世界技能大赛意义深远。我们正按照习近平主席重要指示要求， 全力以赴、精益求精推进世赛各项筹办工作，努力办成一届富有新意、影响广泛的世界技能大赛。以举 办世赛为契机，聚焦"投资于人"，把培养技能人才摆在更加突出的位置，更好顺应科技变革和就业结构 变化，加强人力人才资源开发利用，在学科设置、职业培训、技能提升上下更大功夫，推动更多青年充 分感受技能魅力、踏上技能成才之路，为高质量发展提供坚实人力人才保障。愿与世界技能组织加强沟 通对接，更好发挥世赛等平台作用，深化技能国际交流合作，共同开创技能事业发展新未来。 弗朗西斯·乌汉、大卫·霍伊表示，对第48届世界技能大赛充满期待、充满信心。在各方卓有成效的 工作和共同努力下，本届世赛必将在世界范围内、技能发展史上、广泛人群中产生持久而深远的影响。 希望通过在上海举办世赛并开展一系列技能交流推广活动，更好开启和推动世界技能"2035愿景"规划， 更好分享各国促进世界技能发展的创新思路和做法，携手推动世界技能事业不断向前发展。 市领导华源、陈杰参加会 ...

供给强、需求弱，是当前制约我国经济运行最突出的矛盾。2025年，我国经济顶压前行，实现5%的增 长殊为不易。但在下半年，社会消费品零售总额增速逐月回落，固定资产投资增速转负，显示出一段时 期以来需求不足的短板仍未得到实质性解决，经济增长后劲偏弱。加力破解供强需弱矛盾，十分紧要。 拆解总需求偏弱这一问题，可以发现内需不足、消费不振是症结所在。相较于外需，2025年内需对经济 增长的贡献率较过去4年均值有所下降。看内需结构，投资与消费相互影响。短期内，投资需求被消费 不足、行业"内卷"、化债压力等因素拖累；而在长期，随着我国工业化和城镇化步入下半场，传统基建 的空间在缩减，投资增速放缓是趋势，消费对整个国民经济的基础性、带动性作用，以及对总需求的影 响都将更加突出。 2025年消费增速的回落除了与上年同期基数较高有关，居民消费信心和意愿不够充足也是重要原因。在 我国，居民消费率偏低不是个新问题，其背后是国民收入分配、社会保障体系等仍有待完善。只有百姓 就业稳了、腰包鼓了、社会保障水平高了，消费的底气才会更足，宏观统计和微观体感之间的"温差"才 能进一步弥合。 打好政策"组合拳"是抓手。2026年，"两新"政策、" ...

实施扩大内需战略是保持我国经济长期持续健康发展的需要，促进消费是扩大内需的重要方面。"十五 五"规划建议对"建设强大国内市场"作出重要部署，要求"坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，坚持惠民生和促 消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投资、 供给和需求良性互动"。如何坚持投资于人，更好推动消费扩容提质，是落实扩大内需战略、畅通国内 大循环的一个重要课题。 二是加大教育培训力度。重点是推动新增劳动力供给与经济发展需求相匹配。要适应新一轮科技革命和 产业变革趋势，加强在岗人员教育培训，健全终身职业技能培训制度，增强现代化产业体系就业协同 性。完善重点群体就业支持体系，加强求职就业、技能培训等服务，拓宽劳动者就业增收空间。 三是优化公共消费支出。增加教育、医疗、养老、托育等方面的公共消费支出，提升民生领域公共服务 质量。顺应居民日益增长的绿色、健康、休闲等消费需求，增加公共卫生、文化、体育、公园等方面的 公共消费性投资。加强消费制度环境建设，完善提振消费的体制机制，为消费者提供安全放心的消费环 境。 四是适度增加消费者闲暇时间。引导全社会正确认识休假的重要性，更好落实带薪休假等 ...

Group 1 - The core issue affecting China's economic operation is the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand, with a projected growth of 5% in 2025 being challenging to achieve [1] - The decline in the growth rate of retail sales and negative fixed asset investment growth indicates that the shortfall in demand has not been substantively addressed, leading to weak economic growth momentum [1] - Internal demand, particularly consumption, is identified as a critical factor in the weak demand scenario, with a decrease in the contribution rate of internal demand to economic growth compared to the average of the past four years [1] Group 2 - The low consumer confidence and willingness to spend, alongside the high base from the previous year, contribute to the slowdown in consumption growth in 2025 [1] - The structural issues in internal demand, such as insufficient consumer spending and the impact of debt pressure, are affecting investment demand in the short term [1] - The need for improved income distribution and social security systems is emphasized as essential for boosting consumer confidence and spending [1] Group 3 - The article suggests that addressing the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand requires a shift in public resource allocation from production-focused to people-oriented investments [2] - It highlights the importance of enhancing social security and promoting income growth as key strategies to stimulate consumption and investment [2] - The need for a combination of hard investments in major projects and soft investments in public services is outlined as a strategy to expand consumption and stabilize investment [3] Group 4 - The article advocates for a policy "combination punch" to effectively expand consumption and stabilize investment, emphasizing the importance of a conducive market environment for supply-demand circulation [3] - It calls for systematic removal of unreasonable restrictions on consumption and encourages localities to pursue development through differentiated competition [3] - The potential for China's economy to resolve its internal contradictions and achieve stable growth is highlighted, with a focus on combining policy support with reform innovation [3]

税收收入同比转负，投资于人重要性凸显 固定收益研究团队 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：财政部公布 2025 年 12 月财政数据，1-12 月全国一般公共预算收入同比下 降 1.7%（前值为+0.8%，下同），支出同比增长 1.0%（+1.4%）；1-12 月全国政府 性基金预算收入同比下降 7.0%（-4.9%），支出同比增长 11.3%（+13.7%）。 2026 年 02 月 02 日 ——2025 年 12 月财政数据点评 12 月财政数据的关注点 税收收入同比转负，非税收入降幅扩大。12 月税收收入同比下降 11.5%（+2.8%）， 同比转负，结束连续 8 个月的正增长，12 月企业所得税回落或为当月税收收入 增幅放缓的主要原因。12 月证券交易印花税同比下降 4.8%，增幅在 12 月权益市 场震荡调整与 2024 年同期基数回升影响下转负。非税收入降幅的扩大或因 2024 年一次性安排中央单位上缴专项收益抬高基数。 在投资于 ...

Group 1: Economic Development and Innovation - The "Su Super" football league in Jiangsu has generated significant consumer spending of 38 billion yuan, showcasing the economic impact of local events and cultural initiatives [1] - Jiangsu's foreign trade reached a record high of nearly 6 trillion yuan, reflecting resilience through market structure optimization and the rise of new business models [2] - A "de-involution" movement is underway in various industries, including solar energy and automotive, aimed at curbing unhealthy competition and enhancing resource allocation [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The development of "embodied intelligent robots" is gaining momentum in Jiangsu, with nearly 300 companies forming an innovation alliance to enhance technological capabilities [4] - Jiangsu is focusing on "characteristic advantageous industries," identifying over 200 such industries across 95 counties to promote targeted development and modernization [5] - The rise of One Person Companies (OPC) is being supported through a comprehensive ecosystem that encourages micro-innovation and entrepreneurship [6] Group 3: Service Industry Growth - The revenue growth rate of the productive service industry in Jiangsu reached an average of 11.3%, significantly contributing to the overall service sector growth [7] - A new "dual high collaboration" mechanism is being implemented, linking high-tech zones with universities to foster innovation and address real industry challenges [9] Group 4: Human Capital Investment - The concept of "investing in people" has been incorporated into government reports, emphasizing the transformation of human resources into human capital, with significant funding directed towards social welfare and education [10] Group 5: Scene Innovation - Scene innovation is becoming a key focus in Jiangsu, with 93 projects launched across various sectors, highlighting the role of artificial intelligence in driving technological commercialization [11]