宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 开启"投资于人"新一环——房地产新动 向的信号意义 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 产业转型过程中，大城市劳动密集型行业占比减少，技术密集型行业占比增加，可 能会制约劳动者的增加以及地产需求的扩大。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 05 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 刘姜枫 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 开启"投资于人"新一环——房地产新动 向的信号意义 研究结论 风险提示 每位负责撰写本研究报告全部或部分内容的研究分析师在此作以下声明： ⚫ 产业转型过程中，大城市劳动密集型行业占比减少，技术密集型行业占比增加，可 能会制约劳动者的增加以及地产需求的扩大。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 05 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.c ...

Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting on December 8 emphasized the need to firmly guard against risks and actively and steadily resolve key area risks, continuing the approach outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - In the real estate sector, short-term policies include ensuring the delivery of homes and optimizing financial policies, while long-term policies focus on establishing a new development model to alleviate accumulated risks [1] - As of the end of September, loans for "white list" projects exceeded 7 trillion yuan, supporting nearly 20 million housing units, an increase from over 16 million units in early May [1] Group 2 - The "6+4+2" debt resolution strategy is progressing steadily, with the scale of debt resolution funds exceeding the initially set target of 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating that local government debt risks are gradually being controlled [2] - The focus of debt resolution efforts in the coming year will be on building a standardized mechanism, with stronger coordination among debt resolution tools [2] - Financial regulatory authorities are supporting local governments in resolving risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions through various methods, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of high-risk small banks since 2019 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to focus on stabilizing expectations, markets, and preventing risks in the context of a declining real estate market and reduced investment and land transfer revenues [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Measures - The meeting is likely to introduce measures to optimize purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and reduce home buying costs to stabilize demand [1] - Short-term growth may come from revitalizing existing assets, with policies continuing to emphasize high-quality urban renewal as mentioned in this year's urban work conference [1] - Potential initiatives such as a real estate stability fund and the acquisition of affordable housing are expected to be proposed to alleviate inventory pressure and stabilize liquidity for real estate companies [1] Group 2: Long-term Structural Reforms - In the medium to long term, reforms in the household registration system, land system, and the establishment of a dual housing system (rent and purchase) are anticipated to become key components of a long-term mechanism for the real estate sector [1]

Supply Side - In August, the number of new housing projects for sale continued to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% in 60 cities [1] - The number of unsold new housing projects remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.6% month-on-month [1] Demand Side - The online housing search heat index for new homes in 60 key cities was 57.1, a decrease of 0.3 points compared to July [1] - The heat index for first-tier, new first-tier, second-tier, and third-fourth tier cities were 61.3, 61.6, 56.8, and 52.3 respectively [1] Price Trends - The average online asking price for new homes in 60 key cities was 19,383 yuan/m², showing a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.5% [2] - Among the 60 cities, 20 cities saw an increase in new home prices, 2 cities remained stable, and 38 cities experienced a decline [2] Policy Developments - In August, the central government emphasized the establishment of a long-term mechanism for real estate development, focusing on high-quality urban development [3] - Key policies included measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote urban renewal, with a focus on improving housing quality and meeting diverse housing needs [3] - Local policies included the relaxation of purchase restrictions and adjustments to housing fund policies in cities like Beijing and Shanghai [4][5] Market Dynamics - The supply of new housing projects continued to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% in August, indicating a slowdown in new supply [10] - The overall inventory pressure remained controllable, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% in unsold projects, reflecting a stable market adjustment [13] Housing Search Trends - The housing search heat index in August showed a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, indicating ongoing adjustments in market demand [17] - The demand structure remained stable, with the 90-120 square meter unit size being the most sought after, accounting for 29.4% of the market [21] Regional Price Variations - The price trends varied across different city tiers, with first-tier cities experiencing a slight increase of 0.5%, while second and third-fourth tier cities saw a decrease of 1.2% [25] - Cities like Huizhou and Qingdao reported significant price increases, while Xiamen experienced the largest decline at 6.8% [23][33]

New Housing Market Overview - In July, the number of new housing projects for sale in 60 cities decreased by 1.4% month-on-month, with a total of 10,729 projects available, down by 151 from June [1][9] - The online search heat index for new homes in key 60 cities was 57.4, a decrease of 1.6 points from June, indicating lower demand [1][16] - The proportion of searches for small-sized units (below 70 square meters) increased from 6.1% in June to 6.5% in July, while the 70-90 square meter category rose from 9.4% to 9.6% [1] Price Trends - The average price of new homes in the key 60 cities was 19,479 yuan per square meter, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% month-on-month [2] - Among the 60 cities, 27 saw price increases while 33 experienced declines [2] Key Policies in July - The central government introduced several policies aimed at urban development, including the promotion of rental regulations and the enhancement of housing protection measures [3] - A significant meeting was held by the Central Political Bureau emphasizing stability in employment, enterprises, and markets, with a focus on high-quality urban renewal and risk mitigation in local government debt [4] Local Policy Adjustments - Local governments implemented targeted measures such as adjustments to housing provident fund policies and home purchase subsidies to stimulate the housing market [5][6] - Various cities introduced specific policies, including lowering down payment ratios and increasing loan limits for second homes [7][8] Market Dynamics - The number of unsold housing projects showed a slight decrease of 0.7% in July, indicating a relatively stable supply situation [12] - The average transaction area in key cities decreased from 31.7 million square meters in June to 27.9 million square meters in July, reflecting a downward trend in market activity [14]

Core Viewpoint - Shenyang has decided to abolish eight real estate-related documents issued between 2017 and 2022, reflecting a flexible and timely adjustment of policies in response to market conditions [1][2]. Summary by Category Tightening Policies - The abolished documents include policies that imposed strict controls on housing prices and land sales, such as "limit housing prices, bid for land prices" [3]. - Policies that required a minimum down payment of 30% for first-time homebuyers and 50% for second homes were also part of the tightening measures [3]. Loosening Policies - The documents also included policies aimed at encouraging home purchases, such as subsidies for students and easing restrictions for non-local residents buying homes [3][4]. - The current down payment requirement for second homes has been standardized to 15%, aligning with national standards, indicating that previous policies were outdated [4]. Future Policy Focus - The focus of future policies will shift towards long-term mechanisms, emphasizing supply-side reforms and increasing the supply of affordable and high-quality housing [5]. - There will be a transition from broad subsidies to more targeted support, particularly for urban renewal and specific demographics [5]. Market Trends - In June, Shenyang's new residential sales prices saw a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%, while year-on-year prices decreased by 1% [5]. - The market is experiencing significant differentiation, with core areas showing stable transaction volumes and prices, while suburban areas face high inventory pressure [5].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery due to ongoing policy adjustments and market dynamics, with both new and second-hand housing transactions increasing significantly in major cities [1][2][3]. Market Activity - In the first half of the year, major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou reported substantial increases in new housing transactions, with Shanghai's daily sales averaging about 10,000 square meters, a 38% year-on-year increase [2]. - The second-hand housing market is also active, with Beijing's transaction volume averaging around 35 deals per weekend in July [2][3]. - Nationally, the second-hand housing transaction volume has increased, with Chengdu reporting a 19.8% year-on-year growth in the first half of the year [3]. Policy Impact - Various local governments are implementing policies to stimulate the housing market, such as reducing down payment ratios and providing financial incentives for families [3][4]. - The introduction of "带押过户" (mortgage transfer) policies in cities like Chengdu has facilitated smoother transactions in the second-hand market [3]. Supply and Demand Balance - There is a concerted effort to increase the supply of affordable housing, with significant projects underway in cities like Ningbo and Beijing, aiming to meet the growing demand for rental properties [4]. - The construction of high-quality housing is being prioritized, with local governments providing financial support to developers to enhance housing quality [5]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the ongoing urbanization process and the influx of new residents will continue to drive demand in the real estate market, indicating substantial growth potential [7][8]. - The central government is advocating for a new model of real estate development that emphasizes structural reforms in land supply and housing demand forecasting [8].