南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——产地降雨分布不均，部分地区或有偏干旱困扰 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月15日 本周重要气象提示 1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，10月开始南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，厄尔尼 诺指数截至11月底为-0.55，拉尼娜现象已经形成，预计将持续到2026年初，但其强度偏弱，目前对棕榈油产 地影响有限。 2、本周天气来看，马来群岛降雨依旧分部不均匀，同时各产区降雨量都有所下降。降雨依然集中东马地区及 印尼的西部大部分地区和卡里曼丹岛中部，卡里曼丹岛土壤湿度整体有所提升。印尼的南苏门答腊岛和北苏 门答腊岛、廖内地区土壤湿度落后于历年同期；马来半岛降雨量整体落后于近20年均值水平，土壤湿度也较 为落后；东马虽然降雨也不多，但土壤湿度保持较好，后续需要留意马来半岛的干旱问题。 3、短期灾害性天气扰动不足，但需关注土壤湿度落后地区，如持续不能好转，或影响明年产量。 厄尔尼诺指数 厄尔尼诺指数（NOAA） 15/12 17/12 19/1 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 内外政策与南北美产地博弈加剧 ---2026 年美豆期货分析展望 报告导读： 从新周期的定价框架来看，全球大豆价格的驱动逻辑已从"单一主产种植利润主导"转向"多极因 子协同共振"，核心驱动维度呈现三大转变：一是供给端从"美豆单一供给"转向"全球主产区产能互 补"，南美天气扰动、美豆种植进度、中美大豆贸易流量等多区域供需变量形成联动；二是流通端从 "CBOT 定价"转向"区域分化"，巴西物流效率、巴拿马运河通行成本、各国贸易关税政策等成为价格 区域传导的关键变量；三是需求端从"饲用需求单一拉动"转向"多场景需求分化"，生物柴油政策驱动 的工业需求、饲用消费的区域结构变化、高蛋白大豆的定制化需求等，赋予价格更强的结构性波动特 征。在此框架下，美豆已从全球大豆价格的"制定者"退化为"参与者"，其国内供需仅为全球多因子体 系中的重要变量而非决定性因素。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 谢义钦 从业资格号：Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com | 1. 2025 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 美玉米收割步入出口旺季，阶段性供应压力较高。且全球及美玉米供需仍然相对宽松，压制国际玉米市场 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格。不过，USDA将2025/26年度美玉米结转库存预测值从上月的21.54亿蒲式耳下调至20.29亿蒲式耳， | | | | | 观点总结（ | 低于分析师预期的21.24亿蒲式耳，对美玉米价格有所支撑。国内方面，东北产区进入12月储备库的收购力 | | | | | 玉米） | 度加大，收储库点持续增多，轮换玉米的采购量也在增加，部分粮库提高收购价，对市场底部构成支撑。 | | | | | | 不过，阶段性高价限制了用 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the current La Niña state in China, which is characterized by a significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific. The article highlights that while China has entered a La Niña state as of October, this does not equate to a La Niña event, which requires the NINO 3.4 index to remain below -0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive months [1][4][19] - The article explains that a "double La Niña" refers to the occurrence of La Niña events in consecutive winters, rather than two events within the same year. The probability of a double La Niña event occurring this winter is considered low, although the ongoing La Niña state will still impact China's climate [4][19][21] - The direct impact of La Niña includes the development of a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea, leading to prevailing northeast winds that suppress moisture transport. This is expected to result in below-average precipitation in eastern and southern China, with predictions of winter-spring droughts in regions like East and South China [6][19] Group 2 - The article provides a detailed explanation of freezing rain, a common winter weather phenomenon that occurs when supercooled water droplets freeze upon contact with surfaces below 0 degrees Celsius. The formation of freezing rain requires two key conditions: sufficiently low temperatures near the ground and the presence of precipitation [7][11] - It distinguishes between freezing rain and rime ice, noting that while freezing rain is a specific type of precipitation, rime ice is a result of freezing rain. The potential for freezing rain to cause damage is significantly higher than that of rime ice due to its weight and the conditions under which it forms [12][14] - The article identifies Guizhou as the province most affected by freezing rain in China, with the highest frequency and severity of occurrences. It notes that the winter months from December to February are peak periods for freezing rain, and despite the La Niña state, the probability of widespread freezing rain in Guizhou this winter is expected to be relatively low [16][21]

Group 1: La Niña Phenomenon - The La Niña phenomenon refers to the significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, with China entering a La Niña state in October this year [1] - A La Niña state does not equate to a La Niña event; a La Niña event is recognized only when the NINO 3.4 index remains below -0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive months [1] - The probability of a double La Niña event occurring this winter is low, despite the ongoing La Niña state having some impact on China's climate [1] Group 2: Impact on Weather Patterns - La Niña directly influences weather by generating a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, leading to prevailing northeast winds that suppress moisture transport to eastern and southern China [2] - This suppression may result in below-average precipitation in regions such as East and South China, with predictions indicating potential winter-spring droughts in these areas [2] Group 3: Freezing Rain and Its Effects - Freezing rain is a hazardous winter weather phenomenon where liquid rain freezes upon contact with surfaces below 0 degrees Celsius, creating ice that poses risks to transportation, power supply, and daily life [3] - The formation of freezing rain requires two key conditions: sufficiently low temperatures near the ground and the presence of precipitation, typically occurring when a warm layer exists above freezing temperatures [5] - Freezing rain can lead to significant hazards, including power line breakage and damage to vegetation, with rain ice (凇) being more destructive than fog ice (雾凇) due to its weight [7] Group 4: Regional Analysis of Freezing Rain - Guizhou Province experiences the highest frequency of freezing rain in China, with the peak season from December to February, although this winter's probability of widespread freezing rain is relatively low [10] - The average temperature in Guizhou is expected to be 7.1 degrees Celsius this winter, with a lighter incidence of freezing disasters compared to historical averages [10] - The distribution of freezing rain in Guizhou is influenced by its unique topography and stable weather systems, with higher occurrences in the western and central regions due to lower temperatures at higher altitudes [11]

央视网消息：拉尼娜现象是指赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现象。国家气候中心监 测显示，今年10月，我国已经进入拉尼娜状态。这会对气候造成什么样的影响呢？ ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 生猪 豆类 | 日报 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 11 日 豆类日报 近强远弱持续 豆类油脂冲高回落 核心观点 12 月 11 日，豆类油脂期价冲高回落。豆一期价涨幅超 1%，期价反弹至多 条均线上方，伴随增仓 7000 手；豆二期价涨幅超 2%,期价延续前一日反弹趋 势，资金变化不大；豆粕期价低位震荡，期价承压于 5 日均线压力，资金继续 移仓远月 05，资金小幅流出；菜粕期价冲高回落，期价承压于 5 日均线压力， 形态整体偏弱，伴随增仓 1.1 万手。油脂期价冲高回落，豆油期价承压于 10 日均线压力，伴随增仓 2.5 万手；棕榈油期价震荡偏强，期价承压于 30 日均 线压力，最终收于 5 日均线下方，伴随增仓 2.4 万手；菜籽油期价涨幅超 1.5%， 期价承压于 30 日均线压力，资金变化不大。 近期豆类市场延续 "近强远弱"分化格局。核心驱动在于紧现货与弱预 期之间的博弈。美豆延续低位震荡，出口销售报告成关键变量，但阿根廷关税 下调挤压美豆市场份额，叠加南美巴西丰产预期，远月进口成本支撑下移。国 内市场呈现结构性矛盾： ...

Summary of Agricultural Products Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The agricultural products market is expected to experience a cyclical upturn in 2026 after bottoming out in 2025, following a period of supply-demand mismatch and geopolitical risks post-pandemic [1][2] - The market has shown signs of supply-side contraction since 2022, with reduced planting areas for soybeans and cotton, and a decrease in pig production [1] Key Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Price Trends**: Agricultural product prices have returned to levels seen in 2018-2019, indicating a potential upward trend compared to the 2012-2016 cycle. The current market is viewed as the beginning of a new upward cycle, especially if oil prices remain stable [1][5] - **Soybean Market Dynamics**: The global soybean market is in a tight balance, with expected slight declines in production and ending stocks for the 2025-26 season. U.S. soybean exports are affected by U.S.-China trade tensions, but domestic consumption is increasing, leading to a projected price range of 1,050-1,250 cents per bushel in 2026 [1][9] - **Corn Market Outlook**: The U.S. corn market is projected to see record global production in 2025, with strong demand and exports reaching a five-year high. Domestic corn prices are expected to fluctuate between 2,050-2,450 yuan per ton in 2025 [3][11][12] - **Pork Industry Transition**: The pork industry is undergoing a cyclical transformation, with effective capacity reduction. The Ministry of Agriculture aims to limit the hog population to 39 million by year-end, with price expectations ranging from 10.08 to 14.50 yuan per kilogram [3][13] Additional Important Considerations - **Climate Impact**: The potential return of La Niña could negatively affect soybean yields in North America, necessitating close monitoring of geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and weather patterns [4][7][8] - **Investment Opportunities**: Current market conditions present a favorable entry point for investors, as demand is expected to stabilize and grow with the recovery of the global economy and increased bioenergy needs [5] - **Supply Chain Risks**: South American soybean production is crucial for China, and any adverse weather conditions could impact supply chains and domestic prices for soybean meal [10] Conclusion - The agricultural products market is poised for a gradual recovery, with key factors such as climate conditions, trade policies, and supply chain dynamics playing critical roles in shaping future price movements and investment opportunities [1][4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - A La Nina phenomenon has formed and is expected to last until early 2026, but its intensity is weak and currently has limited impact on Southeast Asia [1] - This week, the rain belt moved counter - clockwise from the southwest to the northeast of the Malay Archipelago with uneven rainfall distribution. The overall rainfall in the Malay Peninsula decreased compared to last week, and the heavy rain at the end of November has basically returned to normal [1] - There is a lack of short - term catastrophic weather disturbances, but attention should be paid to areas with lagging soil moisture, as continuous poor conditions may affect next year's production [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Weather and Climate Index - Since October, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1, and as of the end of November, the El Nino index was - 0.55, indicating the formation of a La Nina phenomenon [1] Precipitation Forecast - Rainfall in Indonesia has started to decline, and rainfall in Malaysia next week will be greater than this week [3] Soil Moisture - In December, the overall soil moisture in Indonesia has eased, but parts of the Malay Peninsula are relatively dry [9] Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - Jambi: Rainfall has decreased and is less than the same period last year [21] - West Kalimantan: The heavy rain situation has improved, and soil moisture has increased [29] - Central Kalimantan: The soil is relatively moist, and the rainfall situation is optimistic [33] - East Kalimantan: There is abundant precipitation, and the soil is moist [41] - Riau: Rainfall decreases at the end of the year, and soil moisture lags behind the same period in previous years [47] - South Sumatra: Soil moisture lags behind the same period in previous years [53] - North Sumatra: Although there was a flood disaster at the end of November, the rainfall has returned to normal recently [60] Malaysian Palm Oil Producing Areas - Johor: Precipitation is relatively low compared to the same period, and soil moisture is lower than the 20 - year average [67] - Pahang: Rainfall has returned to a low level, and soil moisture has not increased sufficiently [72] - Perak: Soil moisture is relatively normal, but overall rainfall is low [78] - Sabah: Although rainfall decreased in December, the soil is relatively moist [85] - Sarawak: Rainfall has decreased, and soil moisture is the same as last year [92]

研究所 农产品研发报告 10 月以来马来 CPO 现货价震荡偏弱运行，截止到 12 月 3 日价格维持在 4100 林吉特/ 吨，精棕从 1100 美元震荡回落至 1000 美元附近，近日有所上涨至 1040 美元，马印价差降至 15 美元附近，随着棕榈油逐渐进入减产季，产地现货价下跌空间将较为有限，或继续震荡 小幅上涨。 第二部分 基本面情况 | 研究员：张盼盼 | | 棕榈油洪水冲击与偏高库存下的博弈 | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货从业证号： | | | | F03119783 | | | | 投资咨询证号： | | 第一部分 目录 | | Z0022908 | 一、 | 马棕四季度产量表现较好，库存偏高去库缓慢 | | 联系方式： | 二、 | 四季度印棕增量空间有限，印棕库存持续偏低 | | : zhangpanpan_qh@chinastock.c | 三、 | 印尼生柴政策预期偏好，销区存采购增量 | | om.cn | 四、 | 总结 | 一、 马棕四季度产量表现较好，库存偏高去库缓慢 专题报告 2025 年 12 月 01 日 1 / 10 研究所 农产品研发报告 整体 ...