投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-9-12 天胶短期下方支撑偏强 逻辑：天胶盘面昨日大部分时间延续横盘窄幅震荡走势，午后受商品影响 小幅反弹。短期来看基本面现实端依旧偏强，所以我们也认为盘面进一步 下调幅度有限。当前天胶逐渐进入季节性上涨时间，自身炒作题材不断， 如抛储后的收储预期、柬埔寨对外劳人员召回的消息、以及产区尚未明显 好转的天气情况。虽然这些炒作题材自身强度有限，但在即期基本面尚可 的支撑下，胶价的上涨也并不意外。而即便胶价转弱，就短期基本面来 看，我们也不认为该品种的即期基本面会拖拽盘面就此快速下行回到7月 初的位置。从基本面的角度来看，短期船货到港量有限，而需求刚性维 持，在价格回落后下游采购积极性回升。叠加产区的强降雨预期，供给上 量的时间点可能还需后移。策略上，胶价已经偏强运行了近一个月，从时 间节点来看9月中下旬相对重要，若还是难以对前高形成有效突破，暂时 或难以继续维持偏多对待。 展望：宏观情绪尚可，基本面短期同样有支 撑，胶价短期走势预计震荡偏强。 ⻛险因素：宏观对商品超预期的扰动，天⽓。 油脂： USDA报告发布在即，关注油脂下方支 ...

Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report offers a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, key fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking, covering various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight closing prices and price changes of multiple futures contracts, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products, are presented [1]. - Exchange rate information for multiple currencies is provided, including the US dollar index and various currency pairs [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are provided, along with CNF quotes for imported soybeans [2]. 03 Key Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from September 16th to 20th indicates higher - than - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation in the west [3]. - The frost risk in the US Midwest has decreased by mid - September due to rising temperatures, and the distribution of rainfall and temperature in the Midwest is detailed, along with its impact on crops [5]. - The CPC predicts a 71% probability of a La Nina event from October to December [6]. International Supply and Demand - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 3.17% compared to the same period last month, with a 2.70% decrease in yield and a 0.09% decrease in oil extraction rate [7]. - Malaysia's 2025 oil palm planting area is expected to be 5.64 million hectares, slightly higher than 2024 [7]. - Analysts expect Malaysia's September palm oil inventory to increase by 6% to 2.3 million tons [7]. - In July, global soybean oil exports reached 1.2 million tons, and the export and import situations of major countries are detailed [8]. - As of September 9th, 22% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought [8]. - As of September 4th, US soybean export sales increased by 622,500 tons [8]. - As of September 4th, US soybean meal export sales increased by 357,500 tons, and US soybean oil export sales decreased by 6,400 tons [9]. - Analysts predict that US soybean crushing in August may decline [10]. - CONAB predicts Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production, planting area, yield, and export volume [11]. - IBGE predicts Brazil's 2025 soybean planting area and production [11]. - Brazilian soybean, soybean meal, and corn export data for last week and this week are provided [11]. - As of September 3rd, Argentine farmers' soybean sales data and export sales registration data are provided [12]. - India's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to decline by 12% [13]. - Canada's 2025 July and 2024/25 rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal export data are provided [13]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On September 11th, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 28% compared to the previous trading day [15]. - On September 11th, the trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the opening rate of oil mills decreased [15]. - On September 11th, the agricultural product wholesale price index and the prices of various agricultural products increased [15]. 04 Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and October is provided [17]. - US initial jobless claims, CPI data, and OPEC's monthly report on global crude oil demand and production are presented [17]. - The Eurozone's central bank interest rates are provided [17]. Domestic News - On September 11th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased, and the Chinese central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 7.94 billion yuan [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On September 11th, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 25.502 billion yuan, including 3.777 billion yuan in commodity futures, 21.101 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 579 million yuan in treasury bond futures [22]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No specific content is provided in the given text for this section.

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 10, cup rubber is priced at 52.55 THB/kg, down by 0.40 THB, while latex is at 56.00 THB/kg, unchanged [1] - In Yunnan, the purchase price for rubber water is 14,500 CNY/ton, while in Hainan, the private sector price is 15,900 CNY/ton, down by 400 CNY [1] - In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, the price for Thai standard rubber is 1,860 USD/ton, and Thai mixed rubber is at 15,000 CNY/ton, both unchanged [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.92%, down by 4.05 percentage points month-on-month and down by 12.98 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for Chinese all-steel tire sample enterprises is 60.74%, down by 4.15 percentage points month-on-month and down by 1.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Shandong, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.85 days, down by 0.29 days month-on-month and up by 10.04 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 38.88 days, down by 0.34 days month-on-month and down by 3.99 days year-on-year [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Côte d'Ivoire's rubber export volume reached 1.05 million tons in the first eight months of 2025, a 14.4% increase from 0.92 million tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - The export volume in August alone increased by 14.8% year-on-year but decreased by 8.9% month-on-month [2] - The overall supply situation is supported by a slight decline in overseas raw material prices, while inventory continues to decrease [2] - As enterprises resume operations, production capacity utilization is expected to improve, although some companies are still facing production constraints [2] Price Outlook - The price range for natural rubber contracts is expected to be between 15,000 and 16,500 CNY, with attention on the main production areas and potential impacts from La Niña on supply [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International aspects: Optimistic expectations for China-US trade negotiations have cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the export demand for US soybeans is under pressure. The August USDA report is bullish, with the planting area of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reduced by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, the yield per acre estimated at 53.6 bushels, and the ending inventory dropping to 290 million bushels. Recent low precipitation in the production areas has led to a significant decline in the good and excellent rate. Attention should be paid to the yield adjustment in the September report. The Ministry of Commerce has issued an anti-dumping investigation ruling on imported Canadian rapeseed, with a deposit ratio of 75.8% and an extended investigation period, strengthening the expectation of tightened rapeseed imports. The meteorological organization has reported that the La Nina phenomenon may return in September, and the soybean sowing work in South America is about to begin. Track the changes in weather [3][71]. - Domestic aspects: In terms of the ship - booking progress, the booking progress for November is 14%, 1.5% for December, and sporadic for January. The overall progress is slow. Market rumors suggest that 3 - 6 million tons of imported reserve soybeans will be released in November to ease the tight supply situation. The purchase of Argentine soybean meal is limited and there are quality problems. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The arrival of soybeans from August to September is sufficient, the crushing operation rate is high, and the supply of soybean meal is still available. Feed enterprises purchase on a spot - as - needed basis, and the purchase of basis positions has increased under the expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The提货 demand is good, and there is support on the demand side [3][71]. - Recently, the dry conditions in the production areas have led to a significant decline in the good and excellent rate of US soybeans, and there is a large variable in the final yield. Last year, due to continuous low precipitation in the production areas from August to September, the yield continued to decline. The sowing season in South America has begun, and attention should be paid to the impact of the return of La Nina. The Brazilian premium is running strongly, providing support for import costs. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the fourth quarter. The short - term arrival of Brazilian soybeans is still dragging down the upward rhythm. It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will mainly fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise [3][72]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - Since August, soybean meal has first risen and then fallen, showing a range - bound operation. At the end of August, the 01 contract of soybean meal rose 19 to close at 3055 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. The spot price of soybean meal in South China rose 70 to close at 2940 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.44%. The main contract of CBOT US soybeans rose 62.75 to close at 1053 cents/bushel, an increase of 6.34%. In early August, the price steadily increased, mainly supported by the extension of the China - US tariff agreement as scheduled and the strengthening of the expectation of tight supply in the distant future. In the middle of August, it rose sharply and then fluctuated, mainly driven by the unexpectedly bullish USDA report. In late August, the price of soybean meal continued to decline and adjust, mainly due to the news of the release of imported reserve soybeans in November and the expectation of a positive outcome in the China - US trade negotiation [9]. 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the August USDA report, the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 426.39 million tons, a decrease of 1.29 million tons from the previous month's estimate. The global crushing demand is 367.7 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous month's estimate. The ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 124.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.17 million tons from the previous month's estimate, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 29.38% [12]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The August USDA report is bullish. In the 2024/2025 season, the export demand for US soybeans increased by 10 million bushels to 1.875 billion bushels, and the crushing demand increased by 10 million bushels to 2.43 billion bushels. In the 2025/2026 season, the planting area of US soybeans decreased by 2.5 million acres, mainly due to the increase in the behavior of US farmers switching to corn planting under the influence of China - US tariff frictions. The yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels/acre to 53.6 bushels/acre, but the overall production estimate decreased to 4.292 billion bushels. As of now, due to the high tariffs on US soybean imports, China has not made any purchases, and the export demand for US soybeans has decreased by 40 million bushels to 1.705 billion bushels. The ending inventory has dropped to 290 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 6.66%, indicating an expectation of tightening supply [15]. 2.3 US Soybean Production Area Weather - As of the week of August 24, 2025, the good and excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. As of the week of August 26, about 11% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas in the next 15 days will be 30 - 35mm, lower than the average level. The eastern production areas are relatively dry. The 2025 Pro Farmer inspection report shows that the development of this year's soybean crops is better than that of the same period last year. The final yield is estimated to be 53 bushels/acre, and considering the dry weather in August, the estimated yield may be slightly adjusted downward [21][22]. 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - The data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) shows that the US soybean crushing volume in July was 195.699 million bushels, higher than the market average expectation of 191.59 million bushels. The cumulative crushing volume from September 2024 to July 2025 was 2.114335 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.70%. As of the week of August 22, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.99 dollars/bushel [24]. 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week of August 21, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market season were - 189,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 50.87 million tons. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week were 1.373 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 7.23 million tons. China has not purchased new - season US soybeans [27]. 2.6 Brazilian Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - According to the USDA report, the Brazilian soybean balance sheet has basically not been adjusted. In the 2025/2026 season, the Brazilian soybean production remains at 175 million tons, the export demand is 112 million tons, the crushing demand is 58 million tons, the ending inventory is 36.96 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 21.21%. In July 2025, the Brazilian soybean export volume was 12.26 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) data shows that the estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in August is 8.94 million tons [31][39]. 2.7 Argentine Soybean Situation - The August USDA report shows that in the 2024/2025 season, the Argentine soybean production increased by 1 million tons to 50.9 million tons, the import volume increased by 300,000 tons to 6.8 million tons, the crushing demand increased by 500,000 tons to 42.6 million tons, and the ending inventory was 24.95 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, the Argentine soybean production is expected to be 48.5 million tons, the export demand increased by 800,000 tons to 5.8 million tons, the crushing demand remains at 43 million tons, and the ending inventory is 24.65 million tons [41]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Situations - According to customs data, in July 2025, China's soybean import volume was 11.67 million tons. In terms of the ship - booking rhythm, as of August 19, the purchase progress for November - January is relatively slow. The estimated arrival volume of soybeans in August - September is about 10 million tons each month [47]. 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventory - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.8253 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, and the unexecuted contract was 4.9174 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 8.898 million tons. As of the week of August 29, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal in the week was 149,540 tons, the daily average 提货 volume was 193,580 tons, the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, and the feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days were 8.87 days [51]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by feed enterprises is 33.1%, and the proportion of soybean meal in the compound feed and concentrated feed is 14.1% [63]. 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - International aspects: Optimistic expectations for China - US trade negotiations have cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the export demand for US soybeans is under pressure. Pay attention to the yield adjustment in the September USDA report, the tightening of rapeseed imports, and the impact of the possible return of La Nina [71]. - Domestic aspects: The ship - booking progress is slow, and the release of imported reserve soybeans in November may ease the tight supply situation. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The current supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the demand side has support [71]. - It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will mainly fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price is oscillating due to factors such as inventory changes, OPEC+ production decisions, and market expectations [1] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC are also expected to oscillate, with their trends depending on various factors including cost, supply, demand, and market sentiment [2][4][5][6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices fell. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US commercial crude and SPR inventories, a decrease in gasoline inventory, and an increase in distillate inventory. US domestic crude production and refinery processing volume decreased. OPEC+ meeting agenda is yet to be set, and some members may increase production. The oil price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the fuel oil futures prices fell. The Chinese refinery operating rate increased. The inflow of low-sulfur fuel oil from the West is expected to decrease, and the high-sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may also decline. However, the overall demand for high and low sulfur fuel oil remains weak. The prices of FU and LU have some upward momentum but depend on the oil price [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the asphalt futures price fell. The domestic asphalt shipments increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt decreased. In September, the demand in the north may increase, but the supply in North and Northeast China may limit the price increase. The overall supply pressure is limited, and the price may rise further [2] - **Polyester**: On Thursday, the TA futures price fell, and the EG futures price rose. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume increases. The terminal demand is weak, and the demand in the peak season is under test. The EG spot liquidity is tight, but the inventory may increase in the future [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the RU and NR futures prices rose, and the BR futures price fell. The weather in the producing areas may be affected by La Nina. The raw material prices fluctuate slightly, and the demand is stable domestically and weak externally. The heavy truck sales are good, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The rubber price is expected to oscillate [4][5] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the methanol spot price is stable. The MTO device may resume production due to improved profits, and the demand in September is expected to pick up. The supply increment is limited, and the price is expected to enter a bottom area [5] - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the polyolefin prices are stable. In September, the supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is gradually transferred to the downstream. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly [5] - **PVC**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices are adjusted. The real estate construction is weak, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The export is expected to decline due to the anti-dumping tax. The PVC price in September is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on September 4th and 5th, 2025 [7] Market News - The EIA inventory report shows the changes in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, as well as domestic production and refinery processing volume [9] - OPEC's oil production in August may increase, mainly due to the output growth of the UAE and Saudi Arabia. OPEC+ is accelerating the relaxation of production cuts, while some members are required to make additional cuts [9] Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [11][13][15][17][19][21] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [23][25][29][31][33][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [37][39][42][45][48][49][52] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [54][59] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the cash flow and production profit trends of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [62][64] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [67][68][69][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is currently in a weak position as the restocking phase has ended, but the decline after the new grain harvest is expected to be less than last year. Short - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; long - term, consider low - buying when the futures price falls below cost [1][2]. - The oil market may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but is likely to strengthen in the medium term due to factors such as increased demand for palm oil and soybean oil from overseas biodiesel, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [6]. - The protein meal market will continue to fluctuate within a range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises should buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7]. - The pig market is in a low - level oscillation. Before the National Day, the inventory will be gradually released, and the spot and near - month prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract is supported by the expectation of capacity reduction, presenting a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - The natural rubber market has no obvious short - term drivers and will maintain range - bound trading, with a short - term upward bias [12]. - The synthetic rubber market will maintain range - bound trading, and the short - term price is expected to rise slightly and the market may be strong [13]. - The cotton market has support but lacks upward drivers. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. - The sugar market is in a downward trend. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new season, the price is expected to be weak; in the short term, it will fluctuate within the range of 5550 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market has unclear core drivers and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - The log market is in a weak oscillation. Technically, it is in a downward trend, but the supply will ease in the future, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oil**: Due to pessimistic demand expectations, US soybeans fell on Tuesday while US soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market continued to fluctuate. Factors such as the US soybean's reduced excellent - rate, the impact of Sino - US trade relations on export demand, and the expected increase in US biodiesel demand for soybean oil were considered. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, and the inventory increase of Malaysian palm oil in August may be limited. The short - term outlook is for continued oscillation and adjustment, and the medium - term outlook is for a strong trend [6]. - **Protein Meal**: International soybean prices are affected by weather and Sino - US trade relations. The US soybean excellent - rate has decreased, and the 9 - month supply - demand report may lower the yield per unit. The domestic market has limited room for price decline, and the demand is expected to increase steadily. The outlook is for range - bound trading [7]. - **Corn/Starch**: The domestic corn price is generally stable. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The wheat substitution may decrease. The short - term outlook is to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and the long - term outlook is to consider low - buying [1][9]. - **Pig**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. The demand is affected by temperature changes, and the inventory is gradually being released. The market shows a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. There are some positive factors such as the approaching seasonal rise period, but the short - term upward space is limited [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows the natural rubber market and is supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. The short - term price is expected to rise slightly [13]. - **Cotton**: The current low - inventory and improving - demand situation provides support for the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar supplies are increasing, and the price is under downward pressure. The long - term outlook is for a weak trend, and the short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [16]. - **Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the core driver of the futures is unclear. The price is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **Log**: The spot price is falling, and the market is in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure will ease in the future, and the market may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the monitored varieties including oilseeds, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided [21][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for the expected price trends of varieties, including strong, oscillating - strong, oscillating, oscillating - weak, and weak, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed slight increases on September 3, 2025 [172]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 3, 2025, the agricultural product index had a daily decline of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 0.13%, a 1 - month decline of 0.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.74% [174].

Report Core View - Ukraine has increased export taxes on soybeans and rapeseed, and the export tax will last until January 1, 2030, then decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5% [1] - Two cold fronts are expected to sweep across the United States this week, bringing scattered showers, and the temperature will drop again after the cold fronts pass. As of the week ending August 31, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than expected [1] - The possibility of La Nina occurring in Brazil in spring has increased, which may lead to drought in the south and affect soybean production. Brazilian farmers have sold less than 20% of the new-season soybeans, slower than in previous years [1] - In August, India's palm oil imports increased by 16% month-on-month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% to 355,000 tons, hitting the lowest level in six months [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports grew strongly in August, with different data sources showing growth rates of 30.53%, 15.37%, and 10.2% respectively [2] Summary by Directory Soybean and Rapeseed Meal and Oils - Ukraine has imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed, which will be adjusted in the future [1] - Cold fronts in the US may affect soybean growth, and the current good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans is lower than expected [1] - The possibility of La Nina in Brazil may affect soybean production, and Brazilian farmers are delaying soybean sales [1] Palm Oils - India's palm oil imports increased significantly in August, while soybean oil imports decreased. The total edible oil imports increased by 3.6% [2] - Indian traders predict that palm oil and soybean oil imports in September will remain at relatively high levels [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports showed strong growth in August [2]

Core Viewpoint - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates a potential return of the La Niña phenomenon starting from September, which may influence global weather and climate conditions in the coming months, despite many regions still experiencing above-average temperatures [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **La Niña Phenomenon**: The La Niña phenomenon, characterized by a significant cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, may re-emerge from September 2023 [1] - **Current Conditions**: Since March 2025, neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) have persisted, with a low probability of El Niño occurring between September and December [1] - **Temperature Expectations**: Despite the potential return of La Niña, temperatures in many areas of the Northern Hemisphere and a large part of the Southern Hemisphere are expected to remain above average from September to November [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, fund flows, and potential arbitrage opportunities in the agricultural and energy sectors. It also presents data on international and domestic supply - demand dynamics and macro - economic indicators both internationally and domestically [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and daily/overnight price changes of multiple futures contracts, such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, and US soybeans, are presented. Currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index and various currency pairs, are also provided [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions are reported. Additionally, CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are given [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather Conditions - The future weather outlook (September 7 - 11) for major US soybean - producing states shows mostly lower - than - normal temperatures and uneven precipitation. The possible return of La Niña from September may affect global weather patterns and crop production, with a 55% chance of equatorial Pacific sea - surface temperatures dropping to La Niña levels from September to November [3][5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month, while its export volume showed an increase. Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28%. EU imports of palm oil, soybeans, and other agricultural products in the 2025/26 season decreased compared to the previous year. Ukraine has started winter sowing and imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed. The Baltic Dry Index dropped to a more than one - week low [7][8][10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On September 2, the total trading volume of domestic oils increased significantly. The开机 rate of domestic oil mills decreased, and the port inventory of soybean oil increased. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased slightly [13][14]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 90.5%. US manufacturing PMI and construction spending data were released. Argentina's finance ministry will intervene in the foreign exchange market. Eurozone CPI data for August was announced [16]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On September 2, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased, and the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital withdrawal. The central bank also announced the liquidity injection of various tools in August [18]. 3.5 Fund Flows - On September 2, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 20.739 billion yuan, with 1.087 billion yuan in commodity futures (including a net outflow of 757 million yuan in agricultural product futures, an inflow of 45 million yuan in chemical futures, an outflow of 472 million yuan in black - series futures, and an inflow of 2.271 billion yuan in metal futures) and 19.651 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Internationally, the high excellent rate of US corn in the early growth stage keeps the output outlook high, continuously pressuring international corn prices. Domestically, with the continuous auction of imported corn, the transaction rate and premium have decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. The high - temperature weather in summer is unfavorable for grain storage, increasing traders' shipping enthusiasm and slightly increasing market grain sources. Wheat has an obvious feed substitution advantage, reducing corn feed demand. Corn futures prices have recently fallen from high - level oscillations, showing overall weakness [2]. - **Corn Starch**: Affected by continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years, significantly reducing supply pressure. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and downstream demand has entered the traditional off - season, with slightly slower downstream pick - up. Supply and demand remain loose. Recently, starch has also shown overall weak oscillations due to the decline in corn prices [2][3]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2302 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2647 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. - Corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 64 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (9 - 11) is 38 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. - Corn futures holding volume (active contract) is 1017804 hands, down 13096 hands; corn starch futures holding volume (active contract) is 255773 hands, up 7909 hands. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 13789 hands, up 17113 hands; for corn starch are - 13753 hands, down 4247 hands. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 194126 hands, down 2353 hands; for corn starch are 18899 hands, down 3080 hands. - The spread between the main CS - C contracts is 345 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 412.25 cents/bushel, down 4.25 cents. - CBOT corn total holding is 1498964 contracts, up 297 contracts. - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 141762 contracts, up 13764 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2417.45 yuan/ton, down 4.12 yuan. - The factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The average import cost of imported corn is 1884.32 yuan/ton, down 1.15 yuan. - The international freight for imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the main corn contract is 115.45 yuan/ton, down 0.12 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 53 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons. - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports is 88.6 tons, down 15.5 tons; deep - processing corn inventory is 443.6 tons, up 8.2 tons. - The monthly import volume of corn is 353.19 tons, down 17 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, up 4.06 tons. - The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons. - The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.7 tons, up 2.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The average feed corn inventory days of samples is 31.58 days, down 0.38 days. - Deep - processing corn consumption is 115.78 tons, down 1.85 tons. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42.96%, down 1.92%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.14%, down 1.06%. - The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 105 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; in Hebei is - 8 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; in Jilin is - 73 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.58%, down 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.02%, down 0.01%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.02%, down 0.3%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.02%, down 0.3% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - US President Trump announced on the 9th that starting from August 1st, a 50% tariff will be imposed on all goods imported from Brazil, which will have a major impact on the agricultural product trade between the two countries. - Brazilian agricultural meteorological agency Rural Clima said that due to the prediction of a possible La Nina phenomenon by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on July 10th, Brazil's new crop sowing season may be affected by La Nina, but the climate may return to a neutral state after spring. - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than the market - expected 73%, 73% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year [2].