南非气象局警告说，降雨可能对水资源和农业产生积极影响，但局部地区发生洪涝的风险也会增 加。 拉尼娜现象是指赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现象。（完） 新华社开普敦12月19日电（记者王晓梅 王雷）南非气象局18日说，受弱拉尼娜现象影响，预计南 非部分地区未来几个月降雨量将偏高，发生洪涝灾害的风险上升。 南非气象局18日发布了涵盖2025年12月至2026年4月整个夏季的最新季节性气候预测报告。报告 称，南非正进入弱拉尼娜状态，全国各地降雨量和气温都将受到影响。气候模型预测结果显示，南非中 部和东部的夏季降雨量将高于正常水平。此外，预计南非大部分地区这个夏季的最低气温将高于正常水 平。 ...

南非气象局18日说，受弱拉尼娜现象影响，预计南非部分地区未来几个月降雨量将偏高，发生洪涝灾害 的风险上升。 南非气象局18日发布了涵盖2025年12月至2026年4月整个夏季的最新季节性气候预测报 告。报告称，南非正进入弱拉尼娜状态，全国各地降雨量和气温都将受到影响。气候模型预测结果显 示，南非中部和东部的夏季降雨量将高于正常水平。此外，预计南非大部分地区这个夏季的最低气温将 高于正常水平。 南非气象局警告说，降雨可能对水资源和农业产生积极影响，但局部地区发生洪涝的 风险也会增加。 拉尼娜现象是指赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现象。(新华社) ...

农产品事业部 大豆、双粕年度报告 2026 ANNUAL REPORT 弘业期货 2026 大豆、双粕年度报告 弘业期货 2026 大豆、双粕年度报告 农产品事业部 大豆、双粕年报：国际环境多变，豆系走势分化 摘要： 供应方面：国内种植结构调整接近完成，大豆种植面积逐渐趋稳，大 豆单产水平增长放缓，大豆产量持续增加。新豆销售较快，但品质分化， 东北高蛋白豆受欢迎。进口大豆持续创纪录，尽管此前中美贸易摩擦，进 口美豆暂停，但南美取代替位，贸易和谈后进口美豆或恢复常态。从全球 供需来看，美豆播种面积相对稳定，新季度产量下降，出口下降，但其压 榨增加，期末库存止升转降；南美巴西大豆产量及出口均持续增加，阿根 廷降税等措施促进其大豆出口，弱拉尼娜预期对南美新季大豆产量预计影 响有限；全球大豆期末库存仍在高位。 需求方面：国内油厂大豆库存充足，且明年 1 季度美豆补充，油厂开 机率高于去年，豆粕产量高，豆粕库存较高；压榨需求或好于预期。下游 畜禽高存栏支撑豆粕饲料需求，但养殖长期大幅亏损或加速后期去产能步 伐，且政策上饲料豆粕使用减量、替代，饲企对豆粕需求并不迫切。 技术方面：豆系均处于熊市底部，但豆一有企稳迹象，豆粕 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current La Niña phenomenon in China, its implications for winter weather, and the potential for drought conditions in the winter and spring seasons [1][5][7]. Group 1: La Niña Status and Events - La Niña is characterized by a significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific [1][3]. - The La Niña state is defined by the Niño 3.4 index falling below -0.5°C for at least five consecutive months to be classified as a La Niña event [3]. - La Niña phenomena occur every two to seven years, with increased frequency in recent years attributed to complex global warming mechanisms [3]. Group 2: Weather Predictions and Impacts - The current La Niña state is expected to lead to reduced precipitation in southern China, particularly in December, with a higher likelihood of cold air events causing temperature fluctuations [5][8]. - Experts predict a low probability of a double La Niña event this winter, which refers to consecutive winters experiencing La Niña conditions [3][7]. - The article highlights that while La Niña can influence winter temperatures, it is not the sole determinant, as other factors like Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation also play significant roles [8][9]. Group 3: Specific Regional Impacts - The likelihood of winter drought conditions in East and South China is noted, with potential for significant impacts on agriculture and water resources [7][10]. - In regions like Guizhou, which frequently experiences freezing rain, the probability of widespread low-temperature rain and snow events this winter is expected to be relatively low [12]. - The article emphasizes the need for preparedness against low-temperature and freezing rain disasters, particularly in high-risk areas [10].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The La Nina phenomenon is strengthening, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also intensifying, increasing the probability of rainfall in Indonesia and its surrounding areas [1]. - High - latitude rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the dry season, which will affect rubber production [1]. - Weather conditions such as rainfall and temperature in various rubber - producing areas around the world will impact the progress of rubber tapping and production. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Important Weather Warnings - **Climate Dynamics** - The Nino3.4 index is - 0.7 (- 0.2), and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is + 2.7. The La Nina phenomenon is strengthening, and it may last until December 2025 to February 2026 and transition to ENSO neutral from January to March 2026 [1]. - The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is - 0.63 (- 0.17), indicating a strengthening of the IOD and an increased probability of rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - The Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to be in Phase 1, with little effect on the growth of rain clouds in Indonesia, and it will develop towards the East Indian Ocean by the end of the month [1]. - **China's Producing Areas** - Yunnan: Affected by cooling, it is approaching full suspension of tapping. Output in the northern part will be limited by low - temperature, and the southern part will have a slight temperature increase but limited output [1]. - Hainan: The temperature is currently suitable. There has been sporadic rainfall recently, and the dry content of glue has decreased. Tapping is expected to gradually stop in late December. There will be less rain and a temperature increase in the next week, followed by another temperature drop [1]. - **Indochina Peninsula Producing Areas** - Thailand: The north and northeast have less rain, and the south has significantly less rain in December compared to November, with little impact on raw material output. The north and northeast will cool down at the end of the month, and some areas may gradually stop tapping [2]. - Vietnam: Precipitation in November was higher than average. The south will have less rain, and the central - east will be slightly affected by showers [2]. - Cambodia: Precipitation in November increased year - on - year. There will be less rain in the future, but the temperature drop at the end of the month may reduce output [2]. - Myanmar: There will be less rain in the future, and the surface soil moisture in the south is low. There will be a significant temperature drop at the end of the month [2]. - Laos: It is currently in the peak - production period. Less rain and a temperature drop will slightly affect output [2]. - **Malay Archipelago Producing Areas** - Indonesia: The La Nina phenomenon and the Indian Ocean Dipole are strengthening, increasing the probability of rainfall. The first half - week will have mostly cloudy to light rain, with heavy rain possible in some areas, and the rain will weaken in the second half - week. The impact of rainfall on tapping in December is moderate, weaker than in November [4]. - Malaysia: The Malay Peninsula is in the peak of the rainy season. Rainfall from November to early December affected tapping, and the rain has weakened in the past two weeks but still has an impact [4]. - Philippines: Rainfall in November was slightly higher than the historical average. Rainfall in December decreased, and the temperature is suitable for tapping [4]. - **South Asian Producing Areas** - India: There was intermittent rain in southern Kerala last week due to a tropical depression. Areas in the southwest and northeast had little rain. Low temperatures in Maharashtra and the northeast may lead to a gradual stop of tapping [5]. - Sri Lanka: Floods have receded, and production is recovering [5]. - **West African Producing Areas** - Cote d'Ivoire: It is gradually emerging from the secondary rainy season. Cumulative precipitation in November increased year - on - year and is approaching normal levels. There were local showers in the past week, slightly affecting tapping [5]. 3.2 Summary of Rainfall Data in Producing Areas - The report provides monthly cumulative precipitation, year - on - year changes, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly differences, and forecast precipitation for the current and next weeks in major natural rubber producing areas. For example, in Yunnan's Xishuangbanna, the monthly cumulative precipitation is 0.1 mm, a year - on - year decrease of 98% [6]. 3.3 Monitoring of Sudden Disasters in Producing Areas - There is a tropical depression disturbance in western Indonesia, which may increase rainfall in Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula [8]. - The weather in southern Thailand has improved, and the impact of floods has subsided. Short - term heavy rainfall in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra in Indonesia requires attention to secondary disaster risks [9]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - The report presents precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, as well as various meteorological indicators such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomalies, temperature comparisons, and average wind speed for each major rubber - producing area [11][17][38]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas** - About 80% of the world's natural rubber is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and Vietnam. Thailand accounts for about 1/4 of the planting area and over 30% of the global output, while Indonesia accounts for about 1/5 of the planting area and 15% of the output. Cote d'Ivoire accounts for over 10% of the output [198]. - **Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber Trees and the Impact of Weather** - The phenological period of rubber trees includes "leaf - falling period - budding period - bronze period - light - green period - stable period (aging period)". New leaves are sensitive to weather and disasters before maturity, which can affect the tree's latex - producing ability. Short - term supply is affected by weather, and long - term supply depends on planting area and tree - age structure [207]. - **Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas** - Global natural rubber supply is seasonal, with a high - production period from September to November and a low - production period from February to March. The tapping and non - tapping times vary by latitude, with higher - latitude areas having earlier tapping starts and shorter tapping periods [209].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China has entered a La Niña state as of October 2023, which may have significant impacts on the climate and weather patterns in the region [1][3][6] - La Niña is characterized by a significant cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, with the NINO 3.4 index dropping below -0.5 degrees Celsius [3][4] - The occurrence of La Niña is not equivalent to a La Niña event; a La Niña event is defined by the NINO 3.4 index remaining below -0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive months [3][5] Group 2 - La Niña phenomena typically occur every two to seven years, but their frequency has increased in recent years, which is closely related to the complexities of global warming [4] - The current La Niña state may lead to reduced precipitation in southern China during the winter, with a higher probability of drought conditions in the winter and spring [6][7] - The article notes that while La Niña can influence winter temperatures, it is not the sole determinant, as other factors such as Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation also play significant roles [6][7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current La Niña phenomenon, which indicates a significant cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, with China entering a La Niña state as of October this year [2][3]. - La Niña status is defined by the NINO 3.4 index falling below -0.5°C, while a La Niña event requires this condition to persist for five consecutive months [5][6]. - The article highlights that La Niña can lead to increased climate anomalies, with historical occurrences of "double La Niña" events noted in 2000, 2011, and 2021, which have been linked to extreme weather patterns [7]. Group 2 - Experts predict that while a double La Niña event is unlikely this winter, the ongoing La Niña status may still influence China's climate, particularly with a higher probability of reduced precipitation in southern regions [8][10]. - The article mentions that La Niña is often associated with colder winters, but this year may not follow that trend, as the overall temperature is expected to be close to or slightly above normal, with significant fluctuations [11]. - The potential for winter-spring droughts in eastern and southern China is highlighted, with predictions of increased cold air activity leading to temperature swings [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A La Nina phenomenon has formed and is expected to last until early 2026, but its intensity is weak and currently has limited impact on palm oil-producing regions [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains unevenly distributed, with a decrease in rainfall in each producing area. Rainfall is still concentrated in East Malaysia, most of western Indonesia, and central Kalimantan. Soil moisture in Kalimantan has generally increased. Soil moisture in South Sumatra, North Sumatra, and Riau in Indonesia lags behind the same period in previous years. Rainfall in the Malay Peninsula is overall lower than the average of the past 20 years, and soil moisture is also relatively low. Although rainfall in East Malaysia is also scarce, soil moisture is well-maintained. Attention should be paid to the drought problem in the Malay Peninsula [1] - There is currently insufficient short - term disruptive impact from disastrous weather, but attention should be paid to areas with low soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect next year's production [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 El Nino and Southern Oscillation Index - Since October, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1. As of the end of November, the El Nino index was - 0.55, indicating the formation of a La Nina phenomenon [1] 3.2 Rainfall and Soil Moisture in Producing Areas 3.2.1 Indonesia - **Jambi**: Soil moisture at the end of the year has improved compared to the same period [19] - **West Kalimantan**: Soil moisture has increased, but cumulative precipitation is lower compared to the same period [28] - **Central Kalimantan**: Soil moisture level is higher compared to the same period [33] - **East Kalimantan**: Precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [41] - **Riau**: Rainfall at the end of the year is limited, and soil moisture is significantly behind the same period in previous years [47] - **South Sumatra**: Soil moisture lags behind, but is expected to exceed last year's level at the end of the year [52] - **North Sumatra**: Rainfall at the end of the year is limited, and soil moisture is still relatively low [59] 3.2.2 Malaysia - **Johor**: Cumulative precipitation is insufficient, and soil moisture is lower than the 20 - year average [65] - **Pahang**: Rainfall has returned to a lower level, and the increase in soil moisture is insufficient [71] - **Perak**: Rainfall is scarce, and soil moisture has decreased [77] - **Sabah**: Although rainfall decreased in December, the soil is relatively moist [85] - **Sarawak**: Rainfall has decreased, and soil moisture is the same as last year [91]

2025 年 12 月 15 日 内外政策与南北美产地博弈加剧 ---2026 年美豆期货分析展望 报告导读： 从新周期的定价框架来看，全球大豆价格的驱动逻辑已从"单一主产种植利润主导"转向"多极因 子协同共振"，核心驱动维度呈现三大转变：一是供给端从"美豆单一供给"转向"全球主产区产能互 补"，南美天气扰动、美豆种植进度、中美大豆贸易流量等多区域供需变量形成联动；二是流通端从 "CBOT 定价"转向"区域分化"，巴西物流效率、巴拿马运河通行成本、各国贸易关税政策等成为价格 区域传导的关键变量；三是需求端从"饲用需求单一拉动"转向"多场景需求分化"，生物柴油政策驱动 的工业需求、饲用消费的区域结构变化、高蛋白大豆的定制化需求等，赋予价格更强的结构性波动特 征。在此框架下，美豆已从全球大豆价格的"制定者"退化为"参与者"，其国内供需仅为全球多因子体 系中的重要变量而非决定性因素。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 谢义钦 从业资格号：Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com | 1. 2025 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 美玉米收割步入出口旺季，阶段性供应压力较高。且全球及美玉米供需仍然相对宽松，压制国际玉米市场 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格。不过，USDA将2025/26年度美玉米结转库存预测值从上月的21.54亿蒲式耳下调至20.29亿蒲式耳， | | | | | 观点总结（ | 低于分析师预期的21.24亿蒲式耳，对美玉米价格有所支撑。国内方面，东北产区进入12月储备库的收购力 | | | | | 玉米） | 度加大，收储库点持续增多，轮换玉米的采购量也在增加，部分粮库提高收购价，对市场底部构成支撑。 | | | | | | 不过，阶段性高价限制了用 ...