Group 1 - Oil stocks are under pressure, with PetroChina down 2.47% to HKD 7.1, CNOOC Services down 1.93% to HKD 6.6, CNOOC down 1.71% to HKD 18.95, and Sinopec down 1.71% to HKD 4.03 [1] - Oil prices fell significantly due to indications that OPEC+ may decide to increase production again in November during the October meeting, with WTI crude oil futures dropping 4%, marking the largest decline since June [1] - WTI crude oil futures closed down USD 2.27, a decrease of 3.45%, at USD 63.45 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures fell USD 2.16, down 3.08%, to USD 67.97 per barrel [1] Group 2 - Reports indicate that the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, is considering increasing production beyond the planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day for next month [1] - Increased supply pressure and easing geopolitical concerns are contributing to downward pressure on oil prices, alongside rising risks of a government shutdown in the U.S. due to unsuccessful spending agreement negotiations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The optimism of international oil giants at the beginning of the year has dissipated due to low oil prices, leading to job cuts and spending reductions as companies enter a "contraction" mode [1] Industry Overview - The oil industry has experienced a significant shift in sentiment over the past six months, with companies that previously expressed confidence in maintaining operations at $60 per barrel now facing challenges [2] - The U.S. shale oil sector is undergoing its largest wave of layoffs since 2022, with a cumulative oil price drop of 12.5% this year contributing to a pessimistic outlook [2] - ConocoPhillips announced plans to cut up to 25% of its workforce globally, indicating potential struggles within the company and the industry [2] - Chevron also announced similar layoffs earlier in the year, attributing them to both falling oil prices and the need to cut costs following an acquisition [3] Spending and Investment Trends - U.S. oil companies have collectively reduced spending by $2 billion, reflecting a broader trend of cost-cutting measures in response to market conditions [4] - Wood Mackenzie forecasts a 4.3% decline in global oil and gas exploration capital expenditure this year, marking the first decrease since 2020 [5] - If Brent crude prices fall below $60 per barrel, international oil giants may struggle to maintain current capital expenditure plans and fulfill dividend commitments to shareholders [5] Market Predictions - Analysts predict that Brent crude prices could drop below $60 per barrel within the year, with some forecasts suggesting prices may stabilize around $50 per barrel in the coming years if demand remains weak [4] - Historical patterns indicate that oil price rebounds can occur with a single variable shift, such as lower-than-expected growth in U.S. shale oil production [5] - Recent data shows a decline in U.S. shale oil production, with output falling to 13.4 million barrels per day in late August, down from 13.6 million barrels per day in December [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Group 2: Price Data Crude Oil and Related Products - **Price Changes from September 9 - 15, 2025**: WTI increased by $0.61 to $63.30, BRENT by $0.45 to $67.44, DUBAI by $0.54 to $70.74 [3] - **Other Products**: SC increased by 12.80 to 488.10, OMAN decreased by 0.39 to 69.71 [3] Other Oil - Related Products - **Price Changes**: Japan Naphtha CFR - related data had a 6.70 change in the differential with BRT, Singapore Fuel Oil 380 CST had a - 0.85 change in its differential [3] Group 3: News and Events Conflict - Related - Israel destroyed Gaza's tallest residential building, carried out large - scale night air strikes on Gaza City, and attacked a Hezbollah headquarters in Lebanon [3] - Israel's military launched a ground offensive on Gaza City on Monday, aiming to eliminate Hamas [3] Iran - Related - Iran is pushing the International Atomic Energy Agency to pass a resolution condemning the US - Israeli nuclear facility attack in June [3][5] - Iran's top nuclear official warned of chaos if a related proposal is vetoed [5] Other News - Goldman Sachs said that due to strong supply growth, oil prices may fall further next year, but multiple factors could lead to an earlier rebound [5] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals - **US Data (09/05 Week)**: US crude exports decreased by 113.9万桶/日 to 274.5万桶/日, domestic production increased by 7.2万桶 to 1349.5万桶/日 [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Commercial crude inventory (ex - SPR) increased by 393.9万桶 to 4.25 billion barrels, SPR inventory increased by 51.4万桶 to 4.052 billion barrels [5] - **Domestic China (9/5 - 9/11)**: Mainland refinery operating rates had minor fluctuations, Shandong refinery operating rates rose slightly, domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory increased [5] Group 5: Weekly View - **Price Movement**: Oil prices rose this week, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news [5] - **Fundamentals**: The global oil market is in a state of inventory accumulation, with US EIA commercial crude and refined product inventories rising, and global refinery profits falling [5][6] - **Forecast**: In the fourth quarter, the oil price central level is expected to fall to $55 - 60/barrel, and the mid - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [6]

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is experiencing a downturn, leading to concerns among oil-exporting countries regarding budget deficits due to declining oil prices [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The average oil price for 2023 is projected at $85.5, with a decrease to $77 in 2024, and the average price for the first nine months of this year is approximately $63 [1] - Oil prices have recently dropped from the $67-$68 range to the $65 range ahead of the OPEC+ meeting [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Prices - Two main reasons for the decline in oil prices are tariff policies and uncertainties in global economic growth, along with OPEC+ members increasing supply beyond demand [1] - Predictions from consulting firms like Goldman Sachs indicate that oil prices could fall below $60 in the winter of 2025 and 2026 unless there are significant changes such as increased U.S. sanctions, lower interest rates, or improved global economic growth [1] Group 3: Impact on Oil-Exporting Countries - Current oil prices are causing concern among oil-exporting countries, as most budgets are based on an oil price of $75, while Iran's budget is based on €65 [1] - The decline in oil prices is likely to result in budget deficits and reduced investments in oil-exporting countries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in oil prices has significantly impacted the U.S. oil industry, leading to the largest job cuts in three years, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements through mergers and reduced drilling activities [1][4]. Employment Impact - In August, the employment rate in the oil and gas sector fell by 1.7%, with a loss of 6,000 jobs in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, marking a return to the low employment levels seen in 2022 [5][6]. - The Texas oil and gas upstream sector saw a decrease of 1,400 jobs in July compared to June, with a total of 4,300 jobs added in the year to date [10]. Price Trends and Industry Response - Oil prices have dropped approximately 12% this year, with analysts predicting a potential oversupply by the fourth quarter, which could lead to further price declines [6]. - U.S. oil producers are reducing capital expenditure budgets and focusing on enhancing efficiency from existing drilling operations to maintain production levels [6][9]. Corporate Actions - Chevron's acquisition of Hess for $53 billion will result in a 20% workforce reduction, including 800 jobs in the Permian Basin [6]. - ConocoPhillips plans to cut up to 25% of jobs following its acquisition of Marathon Oil, aiming to streamline operations and reduce costs [7]. Industry Outlook - Despite the job losses, industry associations maintain an optimistic outlook for the future of the oil sector, citing ongoing projects and infrastructure developments that could stabilize the job market [8][10]. - The Energy Workforce & Technology Council reported a decrease in total employment in the energy services sector to 628,062, down by 6,021 jobs from July [11].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that China will accelerate its crude oil reserves this year and by 2026, driven by falling prices and concerns over energy security [1] Group 1: Oil Inventory Projections - Goldman Sachs' oil research head Daan Struyven forecasts that China's oil inventory will increase by 500,000 barrels per day over the next five quarters, significantly exceeding recent estimates of China's storage efforts [1] - Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Genscape, estimates that China's inventory has increased by approximately 200,000 barrels per day in recent months [1] Group 2: Market Impact and Price Predictions - Participants at the Asia-Pacific Oil Conference noted that China's buying activity has supported demand and boosted oil prices, although the outlook for oversupply casts a shadow over the global market [1] - Goldman Sachs still expects Brent prices to fall to the mid-range of $50-60 per barrel next year [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for the scale of oversupply expected in 2026 to a record high, as OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries increase production [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil price has unexpectedly entered a "stagnation" phase, with a significant downward trend emerging despite initial predictions of a rise [3][5]. Price Adjustments - The latest adjustment resulted in a price stagnation for refined oil, with 92 gasoline prices hovering around the 7 yuan mark [3]. - As of September 11, the expected price reduction reached 55 yuan per ton, translating to a decrease of approximately 3 to 4 cents per liter [3]. Market Dynamics - International oil prices, including WTI and Brent crude, have shown slight increases, reported at $63.28 and $67.01 per barrel respectively [3]. - The U.S. government is navigating a complex situation, balancing the restriction of Russian energy exports while managing domestic inflation [3][5]. Supply and Demand Factors - OPEC is steadily advancing its production increase plans, contributing to rising global oil inventories, which suppress upward price movements [3]. - Market traders anticipate a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate oil demand [3]. Regional Price Overview - Gasoline prices vary across regions, with 92 gasoline prices in different areas ranging from 6.90 to 7.20 yuan [6].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - The unemployment rate in August reached 4.3%, matching market expectations and marking the highest level since October 2021 [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is at 88.3%, with a 0% chance of maintaining the current rate [1][2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market - Spot gold prices reached a historical high of $3,600.15 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 37% [1] - The rise in gold prices is driven by expectations of a rate cut, a weakening dollar, and increased market demand for safe-haven assets [4][5] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased from 953.1 tons at the beginning of August to 981.9 tons by September 4, reflecting strong investment interest [4] Group 3: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ to consider restoring more oil production to regain market share, leading to a drop in international oil prices [3] - Brent crude oil fell below $65 per barrel, marking a new low since August 18, while WTI crude dropped to $61.3 per barrel, the lowest since June [3]

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ to consider restoring more oil production to regain market share amid weak global demand, with a video meeting scheduled to discuss the handling of the currently suspended 1.66 million barrels per day supply [1][5]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Strategy - Saudi Arabia aims to accelerate the planned increase in oil supply before the end of next year to counteract the impact of falling prices and reclaim market share previously ceded to competitors like U.S. shale oil producers [5]. - OPEC+ has already resumed 2.2 million barrels per day of previously halted production over the past five months and is now faced with the decision on how to manage the remaining 1.66 million barrels per day of suspended supply [5]. Group 2: Market Impact and Price Pressure - Further production increases could exacerbate the anticipated oversupply in the fourth quarter, putting additional downward pressure on oil prices [5]. - Despite concerns about the market's ability to absorb extra oil, the market has not collapsed since OPEC+ began restoring production [5]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that non-OPEC supply growth (excluding the U.S.) will lead to a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day by 2026, potentially pushing Brent crude prices down to $50 per barrel by the end of that year [5].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that due to a surge in global crude oil inventories, Brent crude prices may fall to just above $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 [1] - Starting from Q4 2025, a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day is expected in the global oil market, leading to an accumulation of nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [1] - OECD countries are projected to contribute about one-third of the inventory increase, reaching 270 million barrels, coinciding with a decline in oil demand from these countries, further pressuring oil prices [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices may remain near current forward contract levels in 2025, but this balance is expected to break in 2026 [1] - The "fair value" of Brent crude is anticipated to decrease from the current range of $70 to the $50 range, especially as inventories continue to accumulate in 2026 [1]