Core Viewpoint - The domestic oil prices in 2025 have experienced a significant decline, with the cumulative drop being the highest in three years, reflecting a "3 increases, 4 decreases, and 2 stasis" pattern since the beginning of the year [1] Price Adjustments - Since the start of 2025, gasoline prices have been reduced by 425 yuan per ton, and diesel prices by 410 yuan per ton, translating to a decrease of 0.34 to 0.36 yuan per liter [1] - Filling a 50-liter tank now saves consumers 17 to 18 yuan compared to the beginning of the year, and over 35 yuan compared to the peak at the end of January [1] Recent Trends - The current price adjustment cycle began on May 6, influenced by a significant drop in international oil prices during the "May Day" holiday, with a decrease exceeding 300 yuan per ton in the first five days [1] - As of May 13, the reference crude oil change rate was -6.66%, indicating an expected reduction of 290 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, equating to a decrease of 0.22 to 0.25 yuan per liter [1] Future Expectations - Despite a narrowing of the reduction in the last two days, the industry anticipates that the current round of price cuts is likely to proceed, with the expected reduction range narrowing to 250 to 280 yuan per ton, still exceeding the 50 yuan per ton threshold [1] - The 10th oil price adjustment of 2025 is set to commence on May 19, with projections indicating that the average price of 92-octane gasoline will fall below 7 yuan per liter, entering the "6 yuan era" [1] Current Pricing - The latest prices for 92, 95, and 98-octane gasoline, as well as 0-octane diesel, have been updated, with some provinces not implementing a uniform pricing policy [1]

据彭博社12日报道，受美国政府关税政策和油价下跌的双重打击，美国石油行业正苦苦挣扎，尤其是规 模较小的生产商处境愈发艰难。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The net profits of the five major oil companies in Europe and the U.S. are projected to decline significantly in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to falling crude oil prices, raising concerns about further deterioration in future performance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the combined net profit of the five major oil companies reached $20.531 billion, a 29% decrease compared to the same period last year [1]. - Individual company performances include: ExxonMobil with $7.71 billion (down 6%), Shell with $4.78 billion (down 35%), Chevron with $3.5 billion (down 36%), TotalEnergies with $3.85 billion (down 32.7%), and BP with $0.69 billion (down 69.6%) [1]. - The net profits of these five companies have declined for eight consecutive quarters [1]. Group 2: Oil Price Impact - The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures in Q1 2025 was approximately $75 per barrel, down about 10% from $82 per barrel in the same period last year [1]. - The Brent crude oil futures price also fell by 10% compared to the previous year [1]. - The decline in oil prices is partly attributed to the policies of the Trump administration, which included calls for OPEC to lower prices and tariffs that increased global recession expectations [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market analysts predict that the performance of these oil companies may worsen in Q2 2025, with WTI futures dropping below $70 per barrel and currently trading at just over $60 per barrel [2]. - A study by the Dallas Federal Reserve indicates that developing new U.S. oil requires a WTI price of about $65 per barrel, suggesting that if prices fall below $60 per barrel, oil production may begin to decline due to unprofitability [2]. - Despite the Trump administration's encouragement for increased U.S. oil production, companies are still facing pressure on profit margins due to low oil prices and rising material costs [2].

《财富》杂志提到，据联邦政府估计，美国石油产量接近每天1350万桶，其中近一半来自得克萨斯州西 部和新墨西哥州东南部的二叠纪盆地。响尾蛇能源公司作为二叠纪盆地的最大石油生产商之一，其发展 动态对整个行业具有重要意义。斯蒂斯的警告无疑给行业内尚未察觉这一趋势的人敲响了警钟。 【环球时报记者 李萌 环球时报驻美国特约记者 卓然】编者的话："美国石油行业已经'见顶'。"据美国 《财富》杂志6日报道，美国石油生产商表示，石油行业在特朗普政府滥施关税和油价下跌的重压下苦 苦挣扎，已经开始衰退。这不仅可能动摇美国作为全球最大化石燃料生产国的地位，也将威胁该国能源 安全。随着经济放缓趋势蔓延到各个行业，美国石油生产商正调整策略，减少钻井平台数量，并削减成 本。 油服三巨头股价大跌 特朗普竞选期间经常把"钻吧，宝贝，钻吧"（drill，baby，drill）挂在嘴边，以显示其对石油和天然气 等传统能源的支持。加拿大"能源结构"网站报道称，特朗普在上任第一天就签署了支持石油和天然气行 业发展的行政命令。然而，在他执政100多天后，美国石油企业发布的季度财报并不乐观。美国两大石 油公司收入下滑，埃克森美孚利润同比下降6%，仅为7 ...

Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips has reduced its spending forecast by 3.5% to $12.45 billion due to falling oil prices, which have dropped below $60 per barrel, while maintaining its production outlook [1] Group 1: Company Actions - ConocoPhillips announced a 3.5% reduction in its spending forecast, bringing it down to $12.45 billion based on the midpoint of its guidance range [1] - The company has kept its production expectations unchanged despite the spending cuts [1] Group 2: Market Context - WTI crude oil prices have decreased by approximately 18% this year and are currently below $60 per barrel [1] - A survey conducted by the Dallas Federal Reserve indicated that U.S. oil executives believe an average oil price of $65 is necessary for profitability [1] Group 3: Management Commentary - CEO Ryan Lance expressed confidence in the company's differentiated portfolio, strong balance sheet, and disciplined capital allocation framework, which prioritize shareholder returns [1]

新华财经莫斯科5月8日电（记者包诺敏）在欧佩克+连续第二个月加速增产的利空打压下，本周初，国 际油价低开重挫，布伦特原油一度跌破每桶60美元关口。 国际油价持续低位运行对俄罗斯财政体系构成直接压力。在油价高度不确定性的背景下，俄罗斯财政部 近期更新了预算预期，将2025年联邦预算收入预期由40.3万亿卢布下调至38.5万亿卢布，赤字规模预期 则从1.1万亿卢布扩大至3.7万亿卢布，赤字率占GDP比重调整为1.7%。 分析认为，多重利空因素叠加，导致国际油价持续低位运行的态势仍将延续。这对于作为全球重要能源 出口国的俄罗斯而言，意味着财政体系将面临一定的压力。 俄罗斯总统国民经济与公共管理学院副教授伊利亚·索科洛夫称，从第二季度起，低油价对预算收入的 拖缓将逐步显现。俄罗斯能源与金融研究所能源部主任阿列克谢·格罗莫夫直言："即便俄罗斯按欧佩克 +配额增产，在当前油价下仍难以弥补收入损失，未来税收政策或被迫收紧。" 另一方面，全球需求疲软是油价下跌的重要原因。2025年第一季度，全球经济增速放缓，叠加美国所 谓"对等关税"政策引发的贸易战阴云，国际能源署、欧佩克等主要能源机构不断下调对今明两年的石油 需求增速预期 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices have dropped by $12 per barrel since early 2025, potentially reducing Asia's oil burden from 3.1% to 2.3% of GDP if the trend continues [1][5] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to both demand and supply factors, with demand forecasts being continuously revised downwards and OPEC's plans to increase production impacting supply [2][5] - Asia's oil burden has already fallen below the pre-pandemic long-term average of 3.6% since 2023, with predictions that it could further decrease if Brent crude prices average $61 per barrel over the next 12 months [5] Group 2 - A sustained drop in oil prices by $10 per barrel could lead to a 0.4 percentage point decrease in overall inflation rates across Asia, with nearly 90% of economies currently within their central banks' comfort zones for inflation [7][10] - The overall current account balance in Asia could improve by 0.4 percentage points of GDP with each $10 drop in oil prices, benefiting countries like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines that have long-standing current account deficits [10][12] Group 3 - The combination of weaker oil prices, a softening dollar, and trade tensions suggests that Asian central banks may implement more interest rate cuts, with the potential for cuts exceeding current market expectations [12][14] - Countries such as Thailand, South Korea, India, and Japan are expected to benefit more from falling oil prices, while Malaysia and Australia, as net exporters, may not see similar advantages [14]

| | | | 甲醇日评20250506:面临油价利空冲击 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/4/30 | 2025/4/29 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2316.00 | 2341.00 | (絕对圓) -25.00 | (相对值) -1.07% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2440.00 | 2425.00 | 15.00 | 0.62% | | | 甲醇期货价格 (收盘价) | MA05 MA09 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 2311.00 2251.00 | 2355.00 2278.00 | -44.00 -27.00 | -1.87% -1.19% | | 期现价格 及基差 | 甲醇现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2450.00 | 2475.00 | -25.00 | -1.01% | | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2400.00 | 2445.00 | -45.00 | -1.8 ...

特朗普称随着油价下跌，普京更希望解决俄乌冲突 金十数据5月6日讯，美国总统特朗普表示，莫斯科和基辅希望解决乌克兰冲突，而在最近油价下跌后俄 罗斯总统普京更倾向于和平。"现在的油价已经下跌，我认为我们处于和解的有利位置，俄罗斯想和 解，乌克兰也想和解，"特朗普周一在美国总统办公室对记者表示。"我们已经走了很长一段路，可能会 发生一些事情，希望会发生。正如你们所知，普京总统刚刚宣布停火三天，这听起来并不多，但如果你 们知道我们的出发点，这就意义重大了。这是一场本不该发生的战争。" ...

油价下跌对于即将进入暑假的美国司机来说是个好消息 金十数据5月6日讯，GasBuddy的数据显示，美国汽油价格中位数为每加仑2.99美元，比上周上涨了3美 分，而平均价格为3.12美元，比上周上涨了2美分。GasBuddy石油分析主管Patrick DeHaan表示，原油价 格下跌通常会导致汽油价格下跌，虽然会有一定的滞后性。De Haan中称，"尽管由于炼厂持续维修，汽 油库存一直在收紧，这限制了汽油价格因油价下跌而下跌的幅度，但炼厂产量料将很快上升。炼油厂的 维护工作将在短期内结束，这将增加汽油供应，并导致全国平均汽油价格跌至3美元以下。"油价下跌对 于即将进入暑假的美国司机来说是个好消息。摩根大通估计，消费者因油价下跌而节省下来的钱中，约 有80%花在了其他地方，油价的波动每年可以转化为数百亿美元的消费支出。 ...