Group 1 - The main contract for lithium carbonate has increased by 6% in a single day, currently priced at 79,160 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average. In June 2025, production was 78,090 tons, and next - month's production is forecasted to be 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase. June's import volume was 17,698 tons, and next - month's is forecasted to be 22,000 tons, a 24.31% increase [8][9]. - Demand - last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,046 tons, a 0.99% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,323 tons, a 1.57% increase. Next - month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decrease [8][9]. - Cost - the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate is 67,813 yuan/ton, a 0.72% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,688 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 72,868 yuan/ton, a 0.48% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,992 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [9][11]. - Market Outlook - lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 68,300 - 70,460 yuan/ton. The overall situation shows an intensifying supply surplus, with the main logic being that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [9][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: last week's production was 19,115 tons, up 1.60% week - on - week. June 2025 production was 78,090 tons, and next - month's forecast is 81,150 tons, up 3.92%. June's import volume was 17,698 tons, and next - month's forecast is 22,000 tons, up 24.31% [8][9]. - Demand: last week, lithium iron phosphate sample enterprise inventory was 95,046 tons, up 0.99% week - on - week, and ternary material sample enterprise inventory was 16,323 tons, up 1.57%. Next - month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decrease [8][9]. - Cost: the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. Externally purchased spodumene concentrate cost is 67,813 yuan/ton, up 0.72% daily, with a profit of 1,688 yuan/ton. Externally purchased lithium mica cost is 72,868 yuan/ton, up 0.48% daily, with a loss of 4,992 yuan/ton [9][11]. - Market Outlook: lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the 68,300 - 70,460 yuan/ton range [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Data: the previous day's futures closing prices showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 3.36% - 4.80%. The basis showed an increase, with the increase rate ranging from 128.31% - 218.75%. The number of registered warrants was 10,754, a 6.59% increase. Upstream prices such as lithium ore and lithium mica increased slightly, while some products like anhydrous iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [17]. - Supply - Side Data: weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different trends. Monthly production and import volume are expected to increase. The production cost of spodumene and lithium mica increased slightly, and the production profit of spodumene increased significantly [20]. - Demand - Side Data: the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased, while the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased [20]. - Inventory Data: the total inventory was 142,620 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Smelter inventory was 58,039 tons, a 0.95% decrease, and downstream inventory was 41,271 tons, a 1.24% increase [10][11]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: the price of lithium ore showed an upward trend, and the price of 6% spodumene increased by 1.08% [17]. - Production: the production of domestic spodumene mines and lithium mica showed an upward trend [27]. - Import: the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, with a 17.25% decrease in June 2025 compared to the previous month [20]. - Self - Sufficiency Rate: the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends [27]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate: the weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different trends [33]. - Production: the monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, with a 8.34% increase in June 2025 compared to the previous month [20]. - Import: the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased, with a 16.31% decrease in June 2025 compared to the previous month [20]. - Recycling: the monthly recycling volume of waste lithium batteries showed different trends [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization: the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide showed different trends [40]. - Production: the monthly production of lithium hydroxide decreased, with a 4.09% decrease in June 2025 compared to the previous month [20]. - Export: the export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Spodumene: the cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate increased, and the production profit increased [45]. - Lithium Mica: the cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate increased, and the production profit decreased [45]. - Recycling: the cost and profit of recycling different types of waste lithium batteries showed different trends [48]. - Purification and Carbonization: the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate and the carbonization profit of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [48]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate: the weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate showed different trends [53]. - Lithium Hydroxide: the monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: the price of lithium batteries showed different trends [57]. - Production: the monthly production of power cells and energy - storage cells increased [57]. - Loading: the monthly loading volume of power batteries increased [57]. - Shipment: the monthly shipment volume of power cells increased [57]. - Export: the export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: the price of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - Cost and Profit: the cost and profit of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - Capacity Utilization: the capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - Production: the monthly production of ternary precursors increased [63]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: the price of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - Cost and Profit: the cost and profit of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - Operating Rate: the weekly operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - Production: the monthly production of ternary materials increased [69]. - Export and Import: the export and import volume of ternary materials showed different trends [71]. - Inventory: the weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends [71]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price: the price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73]. - Cost and Profit: the cost and profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73]. - Capacity: the capacity of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed an upward trend [73]. - Operating Rate: the monthly operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73]. - Production: the monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium increased [76]. - Export: the monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium decreased [76]. - Inventory: the weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium increased [78]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: the production of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [81]. - Export: the export volume of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [81]. - Sales: the sales volume of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [81]. - Penetration Rate: the sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends [82]. - Retail - to - Wholesale Ratio: the retail - to - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles showed different trends [85]. - Inventory Index: the monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index showed different trends [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being the main issue due to capacity mismatch, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [8][11]. - The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,900 - 73,860 yuan/ton [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the high and stable supply from ore and salt lake sources and the weak willingness of the power battery sector to purchase [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased week - on - week [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 1.09% day - on - day, with a profit of 833 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica increased by 1.45% day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 5,969 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On July 22, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 3,780 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory was 142,620 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 of the market chart is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: In June 2025, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 81,150 physical tons next month, a 3.92% increase. The import volume is expected to decrease by 2.22% month - on - month. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased day - on - day but is lower than the historical average, and the degree of over - supply has intensified [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of various contracts have increased to different extents, with the 09 contract increasing by 2.24% [13]. - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts has changed, with the 09 contract showing a 15.24% change [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products have changed. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.64%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.62% [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore** - Price: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time [20]. - Production: The production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines has shown different trends in different years [20]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table showing the relationship between demand, production, import, and export [20][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) has changed over time [26]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table [26][30]. - **Lithium Hydroxide** - Production: The production capacity, utilization rate, and output of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) have changed [33]. - Import and Export: There is a supply - demand balance table for lithium hydroxide, showing the relationship between demand, production, import, and export [35]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycling different types of lithium - containing materials for lithium carbonate production have changed over time [38][41]. - The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate have also changed [38][41]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including monthly and weekly inventory by source (downstream, smelter), has changed over time [46]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery** - Price: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time [50]. - Production: The monthly production of battery cells has changed, including power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries [50]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [50]. - **Ternary Precursor** - Price: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time [56]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table [56][59]. - **Ternary Material** - Price: The price of ternary materials has changed over time [62]. - Production: The production capacity, output, and export volume of ternary materials have changed [62][64]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium** - Price: The price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [66]. - Production: The monthly production and export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [66][69]. - **New Energy Vehicles** - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed over time [74]. - Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed [75].

碳酸锂主力合约涨超5%，现报69760元/吨。 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: July 17, 2025 [1] - Report title: Lithium Carbonate: Warehouse Receipts Continue to Decline, Focus on Substantial Changes in Supply [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a neutral market sentiment [4] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - 2509 contract: The closing price was 66,420, down 240 from the previous day; the trading volume was 478,114, down 285,914; the open interest was 340,618, down 1,528 [2] - 2511 contract: The closing price was 65,840, down 260 from the previous day; the trading volume was 52,548, down 34,089; the open interest was 108,026, down 606 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The warehouse receipt volume was 10,655 hands, down 548 from the previous day [2] Basis - Spot - 2509: -1,470, up 290 from the previous day [2] - Spot - 2511: -890, up 310 from the previous day [2] - 2509 - 2511: 580, up 20 from the previous day [2] Raw Materials - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China): 685, up 4 from the previous day [2] - Lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%): 1,450, unchanged from the previous day [2] Lithium Salts - Battery - grade lithium carbonate: 64,950, up 50 from the previous day [2] - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate: 63,350, up 50 from the previous day [2] Other Products - Lithium iron phosphate (power type): 31,345, up 15 from the previous day [2] - Ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type): 106,300, up 30 from the previous day [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,779 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3] - In June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. Domestic sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Production was 1.268 million vehicles, up 26.4% year - on - year; sales were 1.329 million vehicles, up 26.7% year - on - year; exports were 205,000 vehicles, down 3.6% month - on - month and up 140% year - on - year [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,640 - 64,920 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a 3% month - on - month increase and 80% higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 physical tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,110 tons, a 0.48% month - on - month increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,071 tons, a 1.38% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 62,979 yuan/ton, a 0.07% daily increase, with a loss of 104 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 68,253 yuan/ton, remaining the same daily, with a loss of 6,907 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, while the cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with a high profit margin and sufficient production motivation [8]. - **Market indicators**: The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,750 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is - 530 yuan/ton, indicating spot discount. The smelter inventory is 58,598 tons, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 40,765 tons, a 0.66% month - on - month increase; other inventories are 41,430 tons, a 6.34% month - on - month increase; the total inventory is 140,793 tons, a 1.77% month - on - month increase, all higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other related products showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of lithium ore decreased by 0.16% - 0.71%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.16% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: Supply - side data shows changes in indicators such as weekly and monthly operating rates, processing costs, and production volumes. Demand - side data shows changes in indicators such as monthly production, export volume, and inventory of lithium iron phosphate and other products [17]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.15% to 674 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 0.50% to 516,747 tons. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows that the demand is high, and the balance is mostly negative [14][17][25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends. The monthly production, import, and export volumes also changed. The supply - demand balance shows that there are periods of surplus and shortage [28][33]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide all showed corresponding changes [36][39]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost - profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the cost - profit of lithium hydroxide processing, purification, and export, all showed different trends over time [42][45][48]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, showed different degrees of changes, and most of them were higher than the historical average [50]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, shipment volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries all showed corresponding changes. The production and shipment volume of power batteries and energy - storage batteries showed different trends [53][56]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors all showed corresponding changes [59][62]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials all showed corresponding changes [65][68]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium all showed corresponding changes [70][73]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles all showed corresponding changes [78][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On July 7, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures remained flat at 63,660 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 250 yuan/ton to 62,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose 250 yuan/ton to 60,950 yuan/ton. However, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 57,520 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5,481 tons to 15,555 tons [3]. - In July, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons. But due to maintenance and technological upgrades of some upstream enterprises, the weekly output has slowed down, which may lead to a certain downward adjustment of the expected output. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile from May to June were basically flat, and it is expected that the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July will change little month-on-month. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and currently, the inventory of lithium salts and lithium ore is high, approximately equivalent to 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - In the current market, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipt level remains low, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension, maintenance, and technological upgrades, and there are many disturbances in market news. In the short term, the market may still run strongly. However, in the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is relatively high. Opportunities for short selling after the sentiment turns can still be monitored. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of prices, and the prices may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3] Summary by Directory Research Views - Price changes: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures remained flat, while the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory: July supply is expected to increase, but weekly output has slowed. Imports are expected to change little. Demand has a slight month - on - month increase, and inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - Market outlook: Short - term strength due to various factors, but future hedging pressure exists, and prices may oscillate widely [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract increased by 380 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 1 US dollar/ton, while the prices of various types of lithium mica and lithium phosphate aluminum stone remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium carbonate and hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 250 yuan/ton, the prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles and micro - powder) fell by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained unchanged [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged, and the prices of various precursors, cathode materials, and battery cells mostly had small increases or remained unchanged [5] Chart Analysis - Ore prices: There are charts showing the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, different types of lithium mica, and lithium phosphate aluminum stone over time [6][8] - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [11][13][15] - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related price differences [18][19][20] - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide [22][25][28] - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [30][32] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links [35][37] - Production cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials [39] Team Member Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: Holds a science master's degree, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, etc. Has over a decade of commodity research experience and the team has won many awards [43] - Wang Heng: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [44] - Zhu Xi: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [44] Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone [47] - Company phone: 021 - 80212222, fax: 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979, postal code: 200127 [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unilateral and inter - period trends of lithium carbonate deviate from the short - term fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the position - holding risks. The market attributes the rebound of the absolute futures price to the change of the demand and production schedule expectation for July from negative to positive. After the strengthening of the unilateral futures price, the basis of trade and long - term contracts has strengthened significantly, while the inter - period spread has weakened significantly, which is inconsistent with the continuous large - scale cancellation of futures warehouse receipts. [3] - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to go short on rallies after the willingness of long - position holders to take delivery becomes clear, and the price of the 2507 contract is expected to range from 55,000 to 63,000 yuan per ton. [3][4] - For inter - period trading, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage (except for the 8 - 9 contract, which maintains the positive arbitrage idea) after the willingness of long - position holders to take delivery becomes clear at the end of June. [5] - For hedging, it is recommended to conduct short - hedging, and the short - hedging ratio is suggested to be increased to 70%. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Price Trends - The main contracts of lithium carbonate rebounded significantly. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan per ton, up 3,420 yuan per ton week - on - week; the 2509 contract closed at 63,300 yuan per ton, up 4,400 yuan per ton week - on - week; the spot price rose 750 yuan per ton to 61,150 yuan per ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2507 contract) weakened by 2,670 yuan per ton to - 2,090 yuan per ton, and the Fubao trader's premium and discount quote was + 400 yuan per ton, up 400 yuan per ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 60 yuan per ton, down 980 yuan per ton month - on - month. [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - The production of lithium carbonate continued to increase, and the operating rate improved. The price of spodumene concentrate rose by 9 US dollars per ton to 629 US dollars per ton this week. The production of salt lakes increased, and there will be new projects in Qinghai put into production in July. This week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,767 tons, an increase of 305 tons from last week, with a growth rate of 1.65%. [2] 3.2.2 Demand - Driven by the better - than - expected performance of Xiaomi's large orders, the market expects the demand for power batteries to continue to be released. According to the statistics of consulting firms, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate battery cells in July increased by 6% month - on - month, and that of ternary battery cells increased by 4% month - on - month; the production schedule of cathode materials increased by 2% month - on - month. The market expects that the demand in the off - season of lithium batteries in July may be better than previously expected. [2] 3.2.3 Inventory - The total social inventory continued to increase. The inventory of lithium carbonate was 136,837 tons, an increase of 1,936 tons month - on - month. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased to 21,998 tons. [2] 3.3 Market Data - The report provides a series of charts and tables showing the price trends, production, inventory, and other data of lithium carbonate and related products in the lithium industry chain, including the spot and futures price differences of lithium carbonate, the inter - period price differences of lithium carbonate futures, the price trends of lithium ore, lithium salt products, and lithium batteries, etc. [8][10][11][13][15][17]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年6月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为18767吨 环比增长1 ， | 65% 高于历史同期平均水平 。 . , | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为86570吨 | 环比增加0 54% 上周三元材料样本 ， . , | | | | | | 企业库存为15298吨 ， | 环比增加2 97% 。 . | | | | | | | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为60506元/吨 | 日环比增长0 60% 生产所得为 ...

2025 年 6 月 20 日 无序产能清退期，成本曲线的失真与团雾 ---2025 年碳酸锂期货半年度行情展望 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 报告导读： 研 究 我们的观点：2025 年下半年，我们预计碳酸锂价格依然以偏弱震荡格局为主，价格运行区间预计为 5 万元/吨-6.5 万元/吨。 所 我们的逻辑：锂盐供应逆势增长，需求受贸易摩擦影响下修，锂盐过剩之况愈发严峻。2025 年锂盐供需过剩 29.9 万吨，产量 预计达 178.3 万吨，需求预计 148.4 万吨，供应增速 34%远超需求增速 21%。2025 下半年过剩幅度略低于上半年，三季度过剩 体量环比预计进一步放大，从 7 月持续过剩至 10 月。四季度与历年同期的缺口市场有所不同，历年 11-12 月为年末新能源车 和储能冲量时刻，而 2025 年 11-12 月预计将较去年同期增量表现更为疲弱和低迷。 中国自有+权益资源的自主化突破，海外矿商溢价能力减弱。2025 年中国锂供应实现关键跨越，通过自有资源深耕+海外权益 布局，已基本实现 76.0 万吨的供应规模，占全球供应量的 42.6%。 ...