2025 年 11 月 19 日 品 研 究 碳酸锂：短期或有回调 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 93,520 | -1,680 | 6,980 | 14,960 | 17,740 | 16,580 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 1,487,724 | 120,805 | 585,234 | 511,746 | 1,184,122 | 1,362,496 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 484,357 | -78,597 | -42,136 | 26,983 | 212,499 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of lithium carbonate showed that last week's production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The demand side indicated that the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises decreased by 0.92% week - on - week to 104,738 tons, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises decreased by 1.74% week - on - week to 19,211 tons. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 85,482 yuan/ton, a 1.35% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 543 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite was 89,096 yuan/ton, a 1.98% daily increase, with a loss of 6,327 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation. - Overall, the fundamentals were neutral, the basis was bearish, the inventory situation was neutral, the disk was bullish, the main position was bearish, and the market of lithium carbonate 2601 fluctuated greatly, suggesting cautious operation [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased slightly week - on - week, and downstream inventory decreased. In October 2025, production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month was 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October was 22,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month was 27,000 tons, a 22.73% increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene and lepidolite increased, resulting in losses. The cost of the salt lake end was low, with sufficient profit margins [9]. - **Market Indicators**: The basis was negative, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The overall inventory decreased, and the disk showed a bullish trend, while the main position was net short with a reduction in short positions [9]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Positive factors included the production cut plan of lepidolite manufacturers and the decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile. Negative factors were the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Under the tight balance of supply and demand, the market was affected by sentiment fluctuations caused by news [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of upstream lithium minerals, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 1.79% to $1,024/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.17% to 86,150 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 75.34%. The daily production cost of spodumene increased by 1.35% to 85,482 yuan/ton, and the monthly production cost decreased by 0.83% to 20,410 yuan/ton. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased by 6.35% and 10.54% respectively [18]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly operating rate and production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased. The monthly export of lithium iron phosphate increased by 54.57%. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.93% to 104,738 tons [18]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of smelters decreased by 7.96% to 28,270 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 6.22% to 48,772 tons, other inventory increased by 5.34% to 43,430 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 2.80% to 120,472 tons [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Tables**: The supply - demand balance tables of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different supply - demand situations in different months. For example, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was - 13,025 tons [27][34][38].

准确 快速 权威 专业 7x24h电报 头条新闻 VIP资讯 实时盯盘 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 碳酸锂期货主力合约触及涨停，涨幅9%，报95200元/吨。 碳酸锂主连 3 17 lcm 广期所 ▼ 95040 今开 87700 最高 95200 最低 87700 51753 8.82% 7700 总手 131.7万 持仓 56.85万 日增 结算 童务 (7 当前碳酸锂主力合约为碳酸锂2601(Ic2601) 详情> 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 周K | 月K | 电名▼ 均线▪ MA5:88680↑10:85114↑20:82830↑ DK点 , 95200 95200-> 86000 76800 67600 58400 ...

碳酸锂期货主力合约涨超7%，现报93580元/吨。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the price of lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillation with potential upward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 86,400 yuan, with a change of 1,480 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 360, down 189 from T - 1, and the open interest was 411, down 173 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 87,840 yuan, up 1,260 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 1,106,011, down 39,318 from T - 1, and the open interest was 536,514, up 7,548 from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 27,508 hands, down 779 from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2511 was - 2,050 yuan, down 430 yuan from T - 1; spot - 2601 was - 3,490 yuan, down 210 yuan from T - 1; 2511 - 2601 was - 1,440 yuan, up 220 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,001 yuan, up 17 yuan from T - 1; lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,280 yuan, up 35 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,350 yuan, up 1,050 yuan from T - 1; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan, up 900 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Related Products in the Industrial Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 36,960 yuan, up 355 yuan from T - 1; ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 154,325 yuan, up 1,000 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 84,472 yuan/ton, up 1,244 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,350 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan/ton from the previous working day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the lithium carbonate output was 21,545 tons, an increase of 11 tons from last week. The industry inventory was 120,472 tons, a reduction of 3,481 tons from last week [2]. - **Power Battery Loading**: In October, the domestic power battery loading volume was 84.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 16.5 GWh, accounting for 19.7% of the total loading volume, with a month - on - month increase of 19.8% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 67.5 GWh, accounting for 80.3% of the total loading volume, with a month - on - month increase of 8.6% and a year - on - year increase of 43.7% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current inventory of lithium carbonate is continuously decreasing, and consumption has certain support. The resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to gradually resume production in the future. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and the mine end resumes production, the inventory may change from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the market may decline at that time [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 13, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 86,500 yuan/ton and closed at 87,840 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.39% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,106,011 lots, and the open interest was 536,514 lots. The previous day's open interest was 528,966 lots. The current basis was -3,370 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 27,508 lots, a change of -779 lots compared to the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,100 - 86,600 yuan/ton, a change of 1,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,500 - 82,500 yuan/ton, a change of 900 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,050 US dollars/ton, a change of 30 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with the operating rates of both the spodumene end and the salt lake end maintained above 60%. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [2]. - In the demand aspect, both commercial and passenger new - energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight [2]. - As of November 13, 17 mainstream automobile brands have launched a purchase tax support plan [2]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production increased by 11 tons to 21,545 tons. The total inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,472 tons. The consumption end has strong support recently [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude in the short term. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with supply outstripping demand due to capacity mismatches, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [13]. - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 86,540 - 89,140 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, with the former rising 0.70% to 105,719 tons and the latter 3.51% to 19,553 tons [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses in production. The cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral; Basis: On November 13, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,350 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 3,490 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures, which is bearish; Inventory: The overall inventory decreased by 2.80% to 120,472 tons, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 7.96% to 28,270 tons and the downstream inventory decreasing by 6.22% to 48,772 tons, which is neutral [9]. - Market Outlook: Bullish factors include manufacturers' production reduction plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports; bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline and weak acceptance willingness at the power battery end [11][12]. 3.2 Market Overview - The prices of most lithium - related products increased. For example, the price of 6% lithium spodumene increased by 1.73% to 1,001 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.26% to 84,350 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium ore increased, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica showed different trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 10.61% to 571,500 tons, and the import volume from Australia increased significantly [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, with the monthly production reaching 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase. The weekly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends [17]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide increased to 29,220 tons, a 6.37% increase. The monthly net export volume also increased by 13.60% to 5,053.18 tons [17]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - Lithium Battery: The monthly production, shipment, and installation volume of lithium batteries increased. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased by 21.60% to 76,000 GWh, and the installation volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries also increased [17]. - Ternary Precursor: The monthly production of ternary precursors increased, and the price showed different trends. The 523 - type and 622 - type products had price increases [59]. - Ternary Material: The price of ternary materials increased, and the weekly and monthly production and inventory showed different trends [65]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The price of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased, and the monthly production and export volume also increased [69]. - New Energy Vehicles: The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, with the production volume reaching 1,772,000 vehicles, a 9.59% increase, and the sales volume reaching 1.604 million vehicles, a 14.98% increase [17]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Lithium Carbonate: The overall inventory decreased, with the smelter inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory also decreasing [9]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide showed different trends for different sources [50]. - Ternary Precursor: The monthly inventory of ternary precursors showed different trends [59]. - Ternary Material: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends [67]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [74].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures main contract increased by 2% during the day, currently priced at 88,400 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures has shown a significant price movement, indicating potential market volatility and investor interest [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current futures market shows high - level volatility, with continuous inventory reduction and good support from the consumer side. However, after the price increase, spot trading has weakened, and the downstream's acceptance of high prices is relatively limited. The resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to gradually resume production. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and the mine resumes production, the inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and the futures market may decline [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On November 11, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 87,700 yuan/ton and closed at 86,540 yuan/ton, with a 1.38% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 902,490 lots, and the open interest was 526,493 lots, a decrease from the previous trading day. The current basis is - 4,800 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 2,8099 lots, a change of 608 lots from the previous day [2]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,600 - 84,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,550 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 79,600 - 80,600 yuan/ton, also with a change of 1,550 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,013 US dollars/ton, a change of 18 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The downstream material factories are cautiously waiting and only making rigid - demand purchases, and the market transactions are mainly based on post - pricing. The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November will be roughly the same as that in October. The power market and the energy storage market are both growing [3]. - Ganfeng Lithium announced that the PPGS lithium salt lake project in Argentina has obtained the "Environmental Impact Assessment Report", and it plans to submit an application to the Argentine government in the first half of 2026. The project has about 15.07 million tons of LCE proven + controlled resources and uses direct lithium extraction technology and solar evaporation pond technology [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices. - There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bullish trend in the lithium carbonate market is clear, but considering the recent rapid price increase, it is necessary to be vigilant against the resistance at the 90,000 yuan/ton mark and guard against potential subsequent correction risks [5]. - The core contradiction lies in the supply - demand mismatch. The arrival of more lithium concentrate at ports this month can ease the tight situation at the lithium ore end. The release of salt lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. The demand is currently strong, with the prices of core battery materials rising, and the downstream production schedule in November remaining highly prosperous [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 73,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 35.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 59.0% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: For the lithium carbonate futures, the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the main contract and weighted contract have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the closing price of the main contract is 86,540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 700 yuan (-0.80%) and a weekly increase of 7,980 yuan (10.16%) [8]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different contracts such as LC2601 - LC2603, LC2601 - LC2605, and LC2603 - LC2605 also show daily and weekly changes [8]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 28,099 lots, with a daily increase of 608 lots (2.21%) and a weekly increase of 1,609 lots (6.07%) [8]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotations**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminite have daily and weekly increases. For example, the latest average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 2,220 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (1.83%) and a weekly increase of 105 yuan (4.96%) [24]. - **Carbonate/Hydroxide Lithium Prices**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, as well as different grades of lithium hydroxide, have daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 80,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,550 yuan (1.97%) and a weekly increase of 1,400 yuan (1.78%) [27]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The spreads such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, and the difference between CIF prices in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide also show changes [31]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes have different daily price changes [32][33]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The basis of the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate and the basis quotations of different brands show different values and changes [35][37]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 28,099 lots, with an increase of 608 lots compared to yesterday. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [40]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (including lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), import profit, and theoretical delivery profit are presented in the form of time - series charts [42][44]. Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises worried about cost increases, strategies include buying far - month futures contracts (40% recommended hedging ratio), selling LC2601 - P - 73000 (20% recommended hedging ratio), and using option combination strategies (20% recommended hedging ratio). For those worried about inventory impairment after procurement, strategies include selling the main futures contract (20% recommended hedging ratio) and using combination option strategies (10% recommended hedging ratio) [2]. - **Sales Management**: For enterprises worried about profit reduction due to price drops during sales, strategies include selling corresponding futures contracts (20% recommended hedging ratio), selling LC2601 - C - 90000 (10% recommended hedging ratio), and using combination option strategies (10% recommended hedging ratio) [2]. - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory worried about inventory depreciation, strategies include selling the main futures contract (20% recommended hedging ratio) and selling LC2601 - C - 90000 (10% recommended hedging ratio) [2].