人民财讯12月15日电，11月重磅金融数据公布：前11月社融增量超33万亿元；中央财办：明年将根据形 势出台实施增量政策；国务院国资委：靠前推动一批重大项目落实落地，以增量投入支撑扩大内需；央 行：继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，坚定维护金融市场平稳运行；三部门联合发文推11条举措，促消费 政策"组合拳"再加码，加强商务金融协同，更大力度提振消费；金融监管总局：支持稳定房地产市场， 助力构建房地产发展新模式；证监会：依法严厉查处私募基金违法违规活动；中国光伏行业协会："多 晶硅产能整合收购平台"正式落地；2025年我国电影票房突破500亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to maintain stable economic growth, employment, and price stability in 2024, while promoting synchronized growth in residents' income and the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Policy - The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [2] - There will be a focus on the consistency and effectiveness of macro policies, integrating both existing and new policies to drive economic stability [2] - Incremental policies will be introduced based on changing circumstances, leveraging the combined effects of existing and new policies to promote economic improvement [2] Group 2: Consumer and Income Growth - The government plans to implement a consumption boost initiative and a rural resident income increase plan, while continuing to raise basic pensions for urban and rural residents [3] - There is an emphasis on adapting to changes in consumption structure by expanding the supply of quality goods and services, and optimizing the implementation of new policies [3] - The potential for inbound consumption growth will be explored, with efforts to enhance the inbound consumption environment and promote the "Buy in China" brand [3] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - The government will increase central budget investment and optimize the management of local government special bonds to support major projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] - A sustainable investment and financing model will be established to promote high-quality urban renewal and stimulate private investment [4] Group 4: Risk Management - The government will focus on stabilizing the real estate market through targeted measures, encouraging the acquisition of existing housing for reasonable uses, and reforming the housing provident fund system [5] - Efforts will be made to address local government debt risks, ensuring proactive debt management and preventing the creation of hidden debts [5] - There will be a strong emphasis on resolving corporate accounts receivable issues to prevent the recurrence of payment delays [6] Group 5: Market Regulation - Progress has been made in building a unified national market, with plans to further advance this initiative and establish regulations for market access and fair competition [7] - The government will continue to regulate local government economic promotion behaviors and address issues related to overdue payments to businesses [7]

（文章来源：中国证券报） 王一鸣表示，2026年经济发展面临四大机遇：一是我国会在产业发展、科技创新、基础设施建设，特别 是新型基础设施建设、公共服务等领域展开一系列布局；二是我国完整的产业链优势，人才资源优势； 三是将实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，地方化债逐步推进将提高地方政府支出能力，有利于国家宏观政 策落地，此外，美联储降息为货币政策提供了一定空间；四是微观主体资产负债表正在改善，高科技板 块积累了一定的财富效应，有利于改善居民和企业的资产负债表。 王一鸣认为，在扩大内需方面，要重点发展服务消费，提供差异化供给。同时，要继续稳定房地产市 场，稳定预期。 ...

王一鸣表示，2026年经济发展面临四大机遇：一是我国会在产业发展、科技创新、基础设施建设，特别 是新型基础设施建设、公共服务等领域展开一系列布局；二是我国完整的产业链优势，人才资源优势； 三是将实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，地方化债逐步推进将提高地方政府支出能力，有利于国家宏观政 策落地，此外，美联储降息为货币政策提供了一定空间；四是微观主体资产负债表正在改善，高科技板 块积累了一定的财富效应，有利于改善居民和企业的资产负债表。王一鸣认为，在扩大内需方面，要重 点发展服务消费，提供差异化供给。同时，要继续稳定房地产市场，稳定预期。（中证报） 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core focus for 2026 is to "insist on demand-led growth and build a strong domestic market," marking a strategic shift from merely stimulating consumption to creating a virtuous cycle of "investment + income growth + consumption" [4][5][25] - The emphasis on "clearing overdue corporate accounts" is a new addition to the tasks for 2026, which is crucial for improving cash flow for companies, particularly benefiting construction, materials supply, and service sectors [7][8][29] - The real estate market is set to receive significant attention, with strategies to stabilize the market, control inventory, and reform the housing provident fund system, indicating potential for major policy shifts [9][30] Group 2 - The education sector will see adjustments in resource allocation, with plans to increase the supply of ordinary high school places and undergraduate admissions at quality universities, aligning educational resources with demographic changes [10][31][32] - The annual core economic meeting serves as a government work guide for the upcoming year and reflects China's proactive approach to shaping development dynamics and new patterns amid global changes [14][34][36]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Financial Regulatory Bureau emphasizes the importance of risk prevention and control in the financial sector, focusing on both existing and new risks while supporting the stability of the real estate market [1] Group 1: Risk Management - The meeting calls for effective and orderly prevention and resolution of key area risks [1] - There is a strong commitment to prioritize risk prevention, focusing on resolving existing risks and firmly curbing new risks [1] - The goal is to maintain a "no explosion" bottom line regarding financial risks [1] Group 2: Financial Sector Reform - The meeting aims to consolidate and expand the achievements of reform and risk mitigation [1] - There is an emphasis on promoting the reduction and quality improvement of small and medium-sized financial institutions [1] Group 3: Real Estate Market Support - The meeting supports stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing the role of urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms [1] - There is guidance for banking and insurance institutions to actively resolve financial debt risks associated with local government financing platforms based on market-oriented and legal principles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the National Financial Supervision Administration emphasizes the importance of supporting the achievement of the 2026 economic and social development goals, while effectively managing financial risks and stabilizing the real estate market [1] Group 1: Economic Development Goals - The meeting aims to provide strong financial support for the successful initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - There is a focus on ensuring orderly prevention and resolution of risks in key areas [1] Group 2: Risk Management - The administration is committed to prioritizing risk prevention, addressing existing risks, and preventing new risks from emerging [1] - A strict adherence to the principle of not allowing any major financial failures is emphasized [1] Group 3: Support for Real Estate Market - The meeting highlights the need to stabilize the real estate market and enhance the role of urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms [1] - There is a call to assist in constructing a new model for real estate development [1] Group 4: Financial Institutions - Guidance is provided for banking and insurance institutions to actively resolve financial debt risks associated with local government financing platforms, following market-oriented and legal principles [1]

Report Title - "2025.12.12 Weekly Report on Shanghai Tin Market: Macroeconomic Improvement Boosts Sentiment, Anticipating Strong Adjustment in Tin Prices" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai tin market is expected to undergo a short - term strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance at the 345,000 level [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main Shanghai tin contract continued to rise significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.88% and an amplitude of 8.76%. The closing price of the main contract was 333,000 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, and various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, resolve local government debt risks, and boost consumption [5] - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline [5] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers show purchasing interest when tin prices decline, but rising prices suppress transactions. Inventory has increased slightly [5] - **Technical - level**: There is a significant increase in trading volume and open interest, and the market sentiment is bullish [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 332,720 yuan/ton, up 4.98% from December 5. As of December 11, the closing price of LME tin was 41,880 US dollars/ton, up 3.31% from December 5. The basis of Shanghai tin was 0 yuan/ton, down from 150 yuan/ton last week [10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.86, an increase of 0.16 from December 5. As of December 11, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.61, a decrease of 0.17 from December 4 [14] - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1960 lots, an increase of 2168 lots from December 8. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 118,433 lots, an increase of 10,033 lots or 9.26% from December 5 [19] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 103,020.65 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. The refined tin production in October was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Processing Fees**: On December 12, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, and that for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from December 11 [31] - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 11, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 2,471.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,186.86 yuan/ton from December 5. In October, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75% [34][35] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,695 tons, an increase of 520 tons or 16.38% from December 4. As of December 12, the inventory of Shanghai tin was 7,391 tons, an increase of 526 tons or 7.66% from last week [43] - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On December 11, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,411.48, an increase of 2.71% from December 4 [46] - **Integrated Circuit Output**: From January to October 2025, the integrated circuit output was 386.6 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [47] - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. The export volume was 222,589.82 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.63% [50]

Group 1: Economic Confidence and International Trade - The central government shows increased confidence in international trade, with China's trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in 2025[6] - China's export share reached 15.1% in the 12 months leading up to July 2025, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating a recovery in global competitiveness[6] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The focus remains on expanding domestic demand, with a shift towards service consumption and innovative products in subsidy policies for 2026[8] - The meeting emphasized the need to optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, indicating a potential shift in consumption subsidies towards sectors like elderly products and smart vehicles[9] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - The meeting highlighted the need to stabilize investment, with measures including increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage[9] - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced to stimulate private investment, with a focus on digital economy and urban renewal projects[10] Group 4: Macro Policy Adjustments - The macro policy direction has shifted to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," indicating a more cautious approach compared to last year's focus on stability[12] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to remain at 4% for 2026, with an increase in special bonds to support key projects[12] Group 5: Real Estate Market Stability - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by controlling supply and encouraging the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing[16] - Reforms to the housing provident fund are proposed to broaden its usage and improve access for first-time buyers[17] Group 6: Supply-Side Optimization - The meeting acknowledged the prominent contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand, emphasizing the need for supply-side reforms[19] - The focus on "anti-involution" aims to stabilize market expectations and prevent rapid price declines in key industries[20]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The new energy vehicle industry in China has shown strong growth, with production and sales approaching 15 million units from January to November this year, a year-on-year increase of over 30%, and exports reaching 2.315 million units, doubling year-on-year [1]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes innovation - driven development, aiming to cultivate new growth drivers, and proposes measures for the real - estate market, including risk control, inventory reduction, and supply optimization [1]. Industry Overview Upstream - Copper prices in the non - ferrous sector are continuously rising; egg prices in the agricultural sector are rebounding; and liquefied natural gas prices in the energy sector are continuously falling [2]. Midstream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of PX and PTA are stable at a low level, while those of urea and polyester are continuously declining; power plant coal inventories are low, and coal consumption is continuously increasing; the asphalt production for road construction is at a low level [2]. Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities are continuously warming up; the number of domestic and international flights is decreasing [3]. Price Index Tracking - As of December 11, 2025, the prices of some products such as corn, eggs, and copper have increased year - on - year, while the prices of palm oil, aluminum, and WTI crude oil have decreased year - on - year [39].