Core Viewpoint - The domestic sugar market is experiencing fluctuations due to changes in production, import volumes, and international market conditions, with a potential rebound in the second half of 2025 depending on import dynamics and global supply factors [1][35]. Domestic Market Situation - Sugar production for the 2024/2025 season reached 11.1621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.03% [4]. - Cumulative sugar sales amounted to 8.1138 million tons, up 23.07% year-on-year [4]. - The sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 71.85%, an increase of 5.39 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. - The sugar import volume in May 2025 was 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 33,000 tons year-on-year [7]. - Industrial sugar inventory as of May 2025 was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 32.21% year-on-year, indicating lower sales pressure for sugar factories [12]. International Market Situation - Global sugar production is projected to increase from 180.75 million tons in 2024/2025 to 189.31 million tons in 2025/2026, a growth of 4.73% [26]. - The USDA forecasts a total global sugar demand of 177.92 million tons for 2025/2026, up 1.4% from the previous year [26]. - Brazil's sugar production is expected to be affected by adverse weather conditions, with a significant decrease in sugar output anticipated [28]. - India's sugar production is expected to recover significantly, with estimates ranging from 31.6 million to 35 million tons for the 2025/2026 season [31]. Summary of Market Dynamics - The overall supply-demand balance in the domestic market appears loose, with projected sugar production of 11.16 million tons and imports of 5 million tons against a consumption of 15.8 million tons [35]. - The import pace in the second half of the year will be crucial for determining sugar price trends, with expectations of reaching 2.4 million tons from June to September [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic demand for white sugar is recovering, and the performance of domestic futures prices is stronger than that of the external market. With multiple factors at play, the overall trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption. For now, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for white sugar is 5,834 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan; the main contract position is 332,040 lots, a decrease of 2,120 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,098, a decrease of 261. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -8,305 lots, a decrease of 5,767 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan [2] Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) is 5,693 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar is 5,772 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 133 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for white sugar is 7.46%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 7.45%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.33%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.03%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall. On Tuesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.61%, while the white sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.15%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply has been weighing on raw sugar prices [2]

Industry Overview - As of the end of June, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 first quarter (April to June) was reported at 12.249 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3% [1] - The domestic sugar supply and demand forecast for the 2025/26 season remains consistent, with an expected slight increase in production to 11.2 million tons [1] Market Insights - According to Minmetals Futures, the domestic market is currently experiencing the best import profit window in the last five years, with potential increased import pressure in the second half of the year [2] - The current valuation of Zheng sugar's September contract is relatively high compared to other contracts, with a likelihood of continued price decline unless there is a significant rebound in external prices [2] Production and Pricing Trends - Hualian Futures reported that due to continuous rainfall, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of June was 4.424 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, with sugar production down 9.8% to 2.95 million tons [3] - Domestic sugar production and sales are progressing rapidly, with industrial inventory at historically low levels, supporting relatively strong spot prices [3] - The traditional consumption peak in the third quarter may lead to tight local inventory conditions in October, suggesting a potential upward trend in sugar prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is approaching its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase. The raw sugar market is predicted to remain volatile in the long - term, with short - term trends influenced by production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output. Domestically, the fast sales pace may support sugar prices, but the upcoming large - scale import of sugar may drag prices down. In the short term, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. - Raw sugar is affected by the global supply - demand relaxation expectation and is likely to remain weak in the short term, with potential buying support at lower levels. In contrast, the faster domestic sales rhythm supports spot prices. However, due to the short - term weakness of raw sugar, the rising profit of out - of - quota imports, and the upcoming processing sugar supply pressure, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the raw sugar price fluctuations [4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - International: With Brazil's approaching supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to accumulate. Raw sugar will generally maintain a volatile trend, and short - term trends depend on production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase [3]. - Domestic: The fast sales pace may support sugar prices, but the large - scale import of sugar may drag prices down. Short - term sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar will passively follow raw sugar and remain volatile [5]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. - Options: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - 24/25 Northern Hemisphere production increase was less than expected. In the 25/26 season, the Northern Hemisphere is expected to have a restorative increase, and attention should be paid to Brazil's crushing situation [7]. Brazil's Situation - The crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil is lower than the same period last year. Factors such as weather - affected sugarcane yield, lower sugar content, and higher sugar - making ratio should be noted. The sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region remains high [9][10][12]. Other Countries' Situations - Thailand is expected to have a slight increase in production in the new season. In the 24/25 season, sugar production was 10.14 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons), and exports from January to April 2025 were 2.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58 million tons. The 25/26 season is expected to have a slight increase [18][21]. - In India, attention should be paid to the impact of ethanol volume on sugar supply and demand. The 25/26 season may see a restorative increase. In the 24/25 season, sugar production was about 26 million tons. As of May 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5% [22][23]. Domestic Situation - In the 25/26 season, domestic sugar production is expected to have a restorative increase. In the 24/25 season, the sales - to - production ratio was relatively high, and inventory was at a low level. In the 25/26 season, domestic sugar is in an increasing cycle, with an expected increase to about 11 million tons (subject to weather changes) [25]. - The rising import profit drives a strong import expectation, and import volume is expected to increase [28][31]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data on Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume, sugar production, and sugar - making ratio; the relationship between crude oil and raw sugar prices; Brazil's monthly sugar exports and inventory; India and Thailand's double - week sugar production; and China's monthly sugar production, sales, inventory, and sugar imports [35][42][46][47][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global inventories are expected to enter a stockpiling phase. The selling pressure after the start of Brazil's new sugar - crushing season has dragged down the raw sugar price center, and the expected increase in Brazil's production and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere are suppressing raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase [4]. - Domestically, the fast production and sales speed is expected to support sugar prices. However, the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may drag down sugar prices. Coupled with the recent weak trend of raw sugar, sugar prices will maintain a weak trend in the short term [4]. - Raw sugar has fallen recently due to the expected increase in global supply. The change in Brazil's sugar production remains an important indicator for the market. In China, the faster - than - expected production and sales rhythm supports spot prices. But considering the short - term weak operation of raw sugar, the profit from out - of - quota imports has risen again, and the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the raw sugar price fluctuations in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: For SR2511, the closing price is 5,775, down 32 with a decline of 0.56%, the trading volume is 190,361 with an increase of 0.80%, and the open interest is 309,811 with a decrease of 0.82%. For SR2507, the closing price is 5,790, down 20 with a decline of 0.34%, the trading volume is 218 with a decrease of 80.64%, and the open interest is 10,034 with a decrease of 1.11%. For SR2509, the closing price is 5,653, down 35 with a decline of 0.62%, the trading volume is 17,336 with a decrease of 5.00%, and the open interest is 53,130 with an increase of 1.89% [3]. - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the prices are as follows: 6150 in Liuzhou, 5895 - 6090 in Kunming, 6175 in Zhanjiang, 6160 in Nanning, 6420 in Bayuquan, 6420 in Rizhao, and 6420 in Xi'an [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR07 - SR11 spread is 137 with a change of 15, the SR09 - SR11 spread is 122 with a change of 15, and the SR07 - SR09 spread is 241 with a change of 15 [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the ICE main contract price is 16.19, the premium is - 0.06, the freight is 36.25, the in - quota price is 4342, the out - of - quota price is 5548, the spread with Liuzhou is 602, the spread with Rizhao is 612.00, and the spread with the futures disk is 242. For Thai imports, the ICE main contract price is 16.19, the premium is 0.83, the freight is 18, the in - quota price is 4378, the out - of - quota price is 5595, the spread with Liuzhou is 555, the spread with Rizhao is 565.00, and the spread with the futures disk is 195 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: It is expected to maintain a sideways trend in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Take profit on the 9 - 1 spread [7]. - **Options**: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10]. 3.3 Relevant Attached Figures - The attached figures include Guangxi's monthly inventory, Yunnan's monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, the cumulative production and sales rate of domestic sugar, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, the spot price spread between Liuzhou and Kunming, the September basis of white sugar, and the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou sugar [11][13][16][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - International factors such as the approaching monsoon season improving the outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries with expected production recovery and increased Brazilian sugar supply are suppressing raw sugar prices. In China, the sugar import volume in May 2025 reached 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. The opening of the import window has increased import pressure and suppressed sugar prices. However, as the summer consumption peak approaches, the food and beverage industry has stocking demand, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices, resulting in a slowdown in the decline and a short - term adjustment trend. Later, attention should be paid to sugar arrivals and summer consumption [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,710 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 349,073 lots, down 4,726 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 24,762, down 2,572; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 63,693 lots; the total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 0; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,450 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; and that of Thai sugar was 4,460 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) was 5,653 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar was 5,665 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning it was 6,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; and in Liuzhou it was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales ratio was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 2.2566 million tons, an increase of 704,000 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 1,470 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar was 1,460 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; outside the quota (with a 50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar was 267 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; and for Thai sugar it was 255 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.54 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 11.36%, up 2.59 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.57%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility was 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points [2] Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat data showed that Brazil exported 2,103,033.83 tons of sugar in the first three weeks of June, with an average daily export volume of 150,216.7 tons, a 6% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of the whole of June last year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Internationally, the improved outlook and expected recovery in production of major Asian sugar - producing countries, along with increased supply from Brazil, are suppressing sugar prices. Domestically, the opening of the import window and rising import pressure are weighing on sugar prices. However, approaching the summer consumption peak, the demand for inventory replenishment in the food and beverage industry and the seasonal recovery of cold - drink consumption provide some support for prices, slowing down the decline. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption boosts [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5658 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the main contract position is 384,680 lots, up 12,863 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 28,279, down 120; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 62,173 lots, down 6,170 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4446 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4468 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5647 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5676 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5855 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 6020 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and 6100 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1072 million tons, up 360,100 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 7.2446 million tons, up 1.2488 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.8626 million tons, down 889,500 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 9.43 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 130,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil are 2.2566 million tons, up 704,000 tons. The price differences between imported Brazilian/Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) are 1452 yuan/ton and 1430 yuan/ton respectively, up 45 yuan/ton; outside the quota (50% tariff), they are 251 yuan/ton and 222 yuan/ton respectively, up 54 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 3.9%, up 0.9 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call/put options for sugar is 11.36%, up 2.54 and 2.59 percentage points respectively. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of sugar are 5.57% (unchanged) and 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points respectively [2] Industry News - According to Williams, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 80 to 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased from 2.9104 million tons to 2.8539 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. In the short - term, the market is affected by production data, and in the long - term, Brazil's production progress and actual increase need attention [4]. - Domestically, the fast sales rate may support sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may drag down sugar prices. Short - term sugar prices are expected to remain weak [4]. - Raw sugar has declined due to expected global supply increases. In China, summer stocking demand is delayed, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short - term [5]. - For trading strategies, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see for arbitrage, while considering out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options for options trading [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR2511 closed at 5,679 with a decrease of 12 (-0.21%), trading volume of 190,971 (-9.53%), and open interest of 371,817 (0.68%); SR2507 closed at 5,732 with a decrease of 8 (-0.14%), trading volume of 2,847 (-12.35%), and open interest of 14,281 (-6.06%); SR2509 closed at 5,588 with a decrease of 14 (-0.25%), trading volume of 25,009 (3.21%), and open interest of 51,362 (-0.07%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In regions like Liuzhou, Kunming, and Zhanjiang, spot prices ranged from 5,865 - 6,410 yuan/ton. The price in Liuzhou was 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: SR07 - SR11 spread was 144 with an increase of 6; SR09 - SR11 spread was 91 with an increase of 1; SR07 - SR09 spread was 180 with an increase of 5 [3]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 4,373 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5,589 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 4,425 yuan/ton, and the out - quota price was 5,657 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **International**: With Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to increase. Short - term prices are affected by production data, and long - term trends depend on Brazil's production [4]. - **Domestic**: Fast sales may support prices, but imported sugar and weak raw sugar may lead to price drops. Short - term sugar prices are expected to be weak [4]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - Raw sugar prices have declined due to expected supply increases, and China's summer stocking delay and raw sugar weakness have increased out - of - quota import profits. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar prices [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term, following raw sugar fluctuations [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It's recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options Trading**: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative sales rate, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, sugar September basis, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread [11][13][16]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - Internationally, the improved outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries with expected restorative production increases and increased supply from Brazil are suppressing sugar prices. Domestically, the opening of the import window and rising import pressure are weighing on sugar prices. However, approaching the summer consumption peak, the food and beverage industry's inventory demand and the recovery of seasonal consumption such as cold drinks are providing some support, slowing down the price decline. Attention should be paid to arrivals at ports and summer consumption boosts [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5679 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 371,817 lots, up 2,505 lots. The sugar warehouse receipt quantity is 28,399 sheets, down 187 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 56,003 lots, down 2,195 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,446 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,468 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,647 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,676 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,865 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,040 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,110.72 million tons, up 36.01 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 724.46 million tons, up 124.88 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 386.26 million tons, down 88.95 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 9.43 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 130,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. Brazil's monthly sugar export volume is 2.2566 billion tons, up 704,000 tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,452 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,430 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar is 251 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; for Thai sugar it is 222 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3.9%, up 0.9 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.82%, down 0.05 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.77%, down 0.11 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.57%, up 0.39 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.58%, down 0.37 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons. From January to May, the cumulative sugar import volume was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50.1% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint - Internationally, the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia have improved, with expectations of a recovery in production, which restrains sugar price performance. Domestically, the import window has opened, increasing the later - stage import pressure and pushing sugar prices down. Near the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory - building needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks may recover, which may provide some support for future prices. Later, attention should be paid to the arrival of imports and the boost from summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5667 yuan/ton, with a环比 increase of 3; the main contract position is 370572 hands, with a环比 increase of 2346. The number of warehouse receipts is 28586 sheets, with a环比 decrease of 150; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 48085 hands, with a环比 decrease of 3469. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4476 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 39; that of Thai sugar is 4498 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 39 [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5835 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6020 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6130 yuan/ton, unchanged. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5686 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 51; that of Thai sugar is 5715 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 50 [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1407 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 4; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1385 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 4. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 197 yuan/ton, with a环比 increase of 8; that of Thai sugar is 168 yuan/ton, with a环比 increase of 7 [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, with a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1110.72 million tons, with an increase of 36.01 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 724.46 million tons, with an increase of 124.88 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 386.26 million tons, with a decrease of 88.95 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, with an increase of 9.43 percentage points [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 130000 tons, with an increase of 60000 tons. The total monthly sugar export volume from Brazil is 225.66 million tons, with an increase of 70.4 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, with an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3.9%, with an increase of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.87%, with a环比 decrease of 0.96; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.88%, with a环比 decrease of 0.94. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.27%, with an increase of 0.31; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.94%, with a环比 decrease of 0.05 [2]. Industry News - In May, the quantity of raw sugar exported from Brazil to China exceeded 500000 tons, and the cumulative amount from January to May reached over 900000 tons [2].