交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年5月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美联储会议前，欧洲贸易谈判态度强硬，金价再度上涨；美国三大股指 全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.53%报99.27，离岸人民币直 线大幅震荡报7.2080；美债收益率全线走低，10年期美债收益率跌4.87个基点报 4.2946；COMEX黄金期货涨3.60%报3441.80美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注国务院新闻发布会、美联储议息会议、法国3月贸易帐。美联储 会议前，关税不确定性依旧高涨，风险偏好降温，金价再度走高，早间中美会面消 息，另风险偏好再度升温，金价明显回落。沪金 ...

20250430棉系月报： 国内植棉进入苗期 关注后市关税政策调整 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 时间：2025年4月30日 周度综述：摘要 | | | | | | | 棉花供需平衡表(4月) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标(万吨) | | | 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 | | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (3月) | 2024/25 (4月) | 月度调整 | 年度同比 | | | 中国 | 597.7 | 644.5 | 583.5 | 668.4 | 595.4 | 691.2 | 696.6 | 5.4 | 101.2 | | | 印度 | 620.5 | 598.7 | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 544.3 | 544.3 | 0.0 | -8.7 | | | 巴西 | 283 | 300 | 235.6 | 255.2 | 317.2 | ...

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货4月30日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计959689千克，今日仓单较上一 日增加28365千克。 此外，未来收入前景在五年来首次转为负面，悲观情绪进一步蔓延至股市。调查显示，48.5%的人预计 未来12个月股价将下跌，这是自2011年10月以来的最差数据。通胀预期也显著上升，明年的通胀预期达 到7%，为2022年11月以来的最高水平。 沪银主力短线还是继续看回落，今日白银期货开盘报8259元/千克，最高触及8295元/千克，最低触及 8172元/千克，截止收盘报8182元/千克，日内跌幅0.41%。 推动这种悲观情绪的主要因素是对关税的担忧，该担忧在调查中达到了历史最高水平。同时，经济衰退 的预期也攀升至两年来的高点。 【基本面消息】 地区 仓库 期货 增减 上海 中储吴淞 112171 0 外运华东虹桥 114247 5199 中工美供应链 454927 25232 合计 681345 30431 广东 深圳威豹 278344 -2066 总计 959689 28365 随着美国经济数据持续疲软，市场普遍预期美联储将于年中重启降息周期。目前，交易员预计到2025年 底，联邦基金利率 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250429 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美债利率持续回落，A 股节前避险情绪浓厚 海外方面，美国"软数据"继续恶化，4 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数大幅低于预期，创 下 2020 年 5 月来新低，关税引发的"滞涨"预期仍在发酵。美财政部上调二季度举债规模 预期至 5140 亿美元，针对债务上限问题的"X 日"将于近期公布。美国财长：首笔贸易协 议可能最早在本周或下周达成，印度或是首批之一。美元指数失守 99 关口，10Y 美债利率 下行至 4.2%、创三周新低，金价、铜价收涨，油价回落。 国内方面，发改委：我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措；将建立 实施育儿补贴制度，定向增发购车指标。常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备。央行：将适时 降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具。A 股继续缩量下跌，两市成交额回落至 1.08 万 亿，假期前夕避险情绪浓厚，风格上北证 50、小微盘股跌幅较大， ...

4月份政治局会议落地，加紧加快已有政策中长期应对关税冲击 ——择机改适时宽松落地触发点看国内，短债走势或继续弱于长债 2025 - 4 - 2 7 中泰期货研究所宏观团队 李荣凯 从业资格号：F3012937 交易咨询从业证书号： Z0015266 TEL：13361063969 01 逻辑与策略（P3-4） 目 录 CONTENTS 02 宏观主要资产资金流向变化（P5-6） 03 近期宏观数据分析与回顾（P7-13） 04 资金面分析与债券期现指标监控（P14-24） 05 权益宽基指数基本面、流动性与期现指标监控（P25-29） 06 宏观经济中期基本面跟踪监控（P30-46） 07 宏观经济长波基本面跟踪监控（P47-48） 逻辑与观点：择机改适时宽松落地触发点看国内，短债走势或继续弱于长债 返回目录 ◆ 宏观数据与逻辑：当周国内公布规上工业企业利润数据，3月份当月同比增速明显回落+1-3月份累计增速回升，贡献项主要是有色金属、专用设备、电气机械和器材，库存形态变化不明显。宏观方 面看企业利润未来会处于缺乏弹性状态，库存形态反映了企业层面补库意愿弱+库存也无力度的结论。海外市场方面，美国经济数据有明显 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported a GAAP net loss of $10.6 million or $0.15 per share, with a book value of $14.44 per share, down approximately 2% from the prior quarter [4][13] - Distributable earnings for the quarter were $17 million or $0.25 per share, aligning with the dividend payout [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed four loans totaling $376 million, primarily secured by Class A multifamily properties, with a weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) of 69% and a coupon of SOFR plus 277 basis points [11] - Repayments in the quarter amounted to $184 million, contributing to net fundings of $222 million [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The pipeline reached a record high of over $30 billion, indicating strong market demand despite increased spreads in various loan sectors [10] - Warehouse financing and senior loan spreads widened by approximately 10 to 15 basis points, while transitional loan sector spreads increased by 15 to 20 basis points [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a defensive posture while actively seeking new investment opportunities, particularly in the European lending market [7][11] - The strategy includes diversifying the portfolio and adding duration, with a strong emphasis on high-quality assets [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about market volatility and recession expectations but believes real estate is better positioned compared to past cycles [6] - The company anticipates that repayments will exceed $1 billion this year, tracking well above previous expectations [10] Other Important Information - The company has no corporate maturities until February 2030 and has ample liquidity of over $700 million [7][18] - The CECL reserve increased to $144 million due to two loan downgrades, but 90% of the loan portfolio remains risk-rated three or better [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about macro issues and dividend policy - Management is monitoring both macroeconomic conditions and specific portfolio risks, noting that while there is heightened awareness, no specific asset is of particular concern [25][30] - Regarding the dividend policy, management feels comfortable with the current level and will evaluate it quarterly, considering the potential for future earnings growth from REO assets [32][33] Question: Originating in Europe and leveraging repayments - The company has been actively originating in Europe and expects to close deals soon, focusing on Western Europe and the UK [40] - Management indicated that while leverage is currently at 3.9 times, they are tracking repayments ahead of schedule and will focus on origination to maximize earnings [42][44] Question: Downgrade of Raleigh multifamily loan - The downgrade was due to the inability to drive rents in the submarket, with the property being on the watch list for some time [50][51] Question: Life Science sector outlook - Management believes that the life science sector has long-term positive fundamentals but faces cyclical headwinds, with expectations for a recovery depending on the economic environment [54][80] Question: New lending opportunities and market conditions - The current opportunity set allows for lending at lower valuations, with a shift towards more stabilized assets rather than transitional ones [60][62] - The company is seeing a significant amount of refinancing activity, with around 70% of the pipeline focused on refinancing rather than new acquisitions [67] Question: Portfolio growth expectations - Management anticipates some incremental growth in the portfolio but is approaching the upper limit of target leverage [76]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The global trade friction has entered a tough - on - tough stage after Trump announced the reciprocal tariff policy on April 2nd. Market panic has soared to a new high since 2020, and the precious metals market is in a dual - game situation of safe - haven demand and liquidity pressure. The market volatility is expected to remain high in the near future, and attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between countries and the US and the performance of US economic data [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: During the day, the outer - market precious metals rose slightly. London gold temporarily reclaimed the $3000 mark and was trading around $3004, while London silver was fluctuating around the $30 mark and was trading around $30.1. Affected by the outer - market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.37% at 719.22 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.26% at 7683 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Dollar index: The dollar index fluctuated sideways and was trading around 103.1 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds gave back part of yesterday's gains and was trading around 4.14% [4]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to weaken and was trading around 7.336 [5]. Important Information - Trump administration: On the 7th, Trump said he would not suspend reciprocal tariff measures and rejected the EU's proposed mutual tariff exemption policy; Trump's team considered an export tax credit policy; seven Republican senators supported a bill to limit Trump's tariff power; the White House denied the rumor of suspending tariffs for 90 days; US Treasury Secretary said it was unlikely to reach a trade agreement with any country before April 9th, and nearly 70 countries were seeking negotiations; the US plans to increase the tariff on Canadian timber from 14.4% to 34.45% [6]. - Other countries' tariff measures: The EU proposed to impose a 25% tariff on some US products starting from April 15th in two steps, and the second part will start on May 15th; the Japanese Prime Minister said Japan would not retaliate against the US [6]. - Fed's view: Fed Governor Kugler said ensuring inflation does not rise is a priority [7]. - Fed's observation: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 43%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 20.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 49.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut is 29.9% [8][10]. Logical Analysis The reciprocal tariff policy has led to market concerns about counter - measures from other countries, and the market is trading the recession expectation again. The precious metals market is affected by both the liquidity pressure of other markets and its own safe - haven property, with certain support below. High market volatility is expected to continue [11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Try to go long on dips and pay attention to the effectiveness of the support near the previous low [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Collar call option strategy [14]. Data Reference - Multiple data charts are provided, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, spot - futures trends, domestic - foreign spreads, ETF holdings, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [16][19][21] etc.

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250408 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 海外方面，在对等关税落地生效前，关税博弈牵动全球市场。特朗普称不会暂停对等关 税措施，拒绝欧盟提议的互免关税政策，但对谈判持开放态度；若中国不取消上周对美国产 品加征的 34%关税，威胁对华再额外加征 50%关税。美盘市场波动加剧、避险交易暂时缓 和，美元指数回升至 103.5，10Y 美债利率从 3.87%回升至 4.2%，纳指震荡收涨，金价下跌 1.8%、伦铜创下 16 个月新低、油价创下近 4 年新低。 国内方面，A 股在假期贸易冲突升级、全球衰退预期下补跌，上证指数跌破 3100 关口 （-7.3%），中证 1000、创业板指、北证 50 跌幅分别为 11.4%、12.5%、18%，两市成交额 回升至 1.6 万亿，行业上仅在中国出口反制下的农业板块收涨。特朗普威胁对华再加征 50% 关税，在幅度上对贸易影响边际减弱，但意味着中美贸易脱钩缓和余地在骤降，隔夜美股止 跌但中概股跌幅调整超 5%，短期国内风险 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 农产品 | ★★★★ | 农产品：此次美国对全球加征对等关税是历史性的大事件;加征幅度超预期;各国大概率会不同 程度反制，不确定性极高。由于这一次是对全球加征关税，因此不能完全用 2018 年的思路 去看待。农产品方面,美国大豆、玉米和棉花出口占全球出口份额比较高，大豆 27%、玉米 33%、棉花 26%，美国出口下降预期已经推高巴西现货升水，对销区的成本上升的影响较大， 且大概率是持续性的影响。大豆方面，虽然榨利较高，但是下游仍有养殖利润，承接力度较 强，囤库意愿较高。风险:全球高关税带来的经济衰退预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 短线或继续大跌，长线关注超跌反弹机会 观点分享： 外盘油价较上周五累计暴跌近 14%，内盘跌停概率较大。短期市场极度恐慌，其中 Brent 或继续交易衰退考验 55 美元/桶，中长期关注企稳筑底后的多配机会。理由：第一， 短期看，市场交易主要大国、经济体之间关税互征引发的通缩，恐慌情绪 ...

首席点评： 对等关税落地，利空暂时兑现 据央视报道，美国白宫发表声明称，特朗普将对所有国家征收10%的"基准关税"，该关税将 于美国东部时间4月5日凌晨0时01分生效。此外，特朗普将对美国贸易逆差最大的国家征收 个性化的更高"对等关税"，该关税将于美国东部时间4月9日凌晨0时01分生效，所有其他国 家将继续遵守原有的10%关税基准。声明表示，一些商品将不受"对等关税"的约束，其中包 括已经受第232条关税约束的钢铝制品、汽车和汽车零部件、可能受未来第232条关税约束的 商品以及美国没有的能源和其他某些矿物。此外，金条、铜、药品、半导体和木材制品也不 受"对等关税"的约束。声明还表示，对于加拿大和墨西哥，符合《美墨加贸易协定》的商品 将继续获得豁免。 重点品种： 股指、原油、黄金 股指： 特朗普全面征收关税，美股盘后大幅下跌，A50跟跌，上一交易日股指涨跌分化，纺织服饰板块 领涨，国防军工板块领跌，全市成交额0.99万亿元，其中IH2504下跌0.18%，IF2504下跌0.08%，IC2504 上涨0.24%，IM2504上涨0.50%。资金方面，4月1日融资余额减少47.64亿元至19027.99亿元。4月 ...