Core Viewpoint - The recent discourse around "Qing Dynasty bonds" by some U.S. media and politicians, claiming that China owes $1.6 trillion in "old debts," is fundamentally flawed and politically motivated, disregarding international law and historical context [1][5]. Group 1: Nature of the Bonds - The so-called "Qing Dynasty bonds" were issued during the late Qing Dynasty for purposes such as railway construction and war reparations, but due to regime changes and turmoil, they have become unclaimed historical artifacts [1]. - According to international law's "clean slate" principle, the new Chinese government established in 1949 is not obligated to inherit the foreign debts of the previous regime [3]. Group 2: Legal Validity - Many of these bonds have become collectibles over the past century, with original holder information obscured and many replicas in circulation, failing to meet basic legal evidence requirements [3]. - In the 1987 case "Jackson v. People's Republic of China," a U.S. federal court ruled that China is not liable for Qing Dynasty debts, establishing a legal precedent that remains valid [3]. Group 3: Political Motivations - The U.S. is currently facing high inflation, rising fiscal deficits, and a debt ceiling crisis, leading some politicians to use the "China owes debt" narrative to divert domestic attention and create a victim narrative [5]. - Politicians like Senator Blackburn and Congressman Vance are promoting "debt justice" proposals, which appear to be more about political maneuvering than factual accuracy [5]. Group 4: Implications for U.S. Creditworthiness - If the U.S. were to attempt to offset legitimate U.S. debt with these invalid old debts, it would undermine its own creditworthiness, potentially leading to a loss of global investor confidence and destabilizing the dollar's international standing [5]. - The Bank for International Settlements reports that over 60% of global central bank foreign exchange reserves are denominated in dollars, indicating that any breach of trust could have long-lasting repercussions [5]. Group 5: China's Position - China maintains a clear stance that it does not inherit Qing Dynasty debts, supported by international law and U.S. judicial precedents, and emphasizes that its holdings of U.S. debt are legitimate market transactions [7]. - The ongoing "old debt farce" reflects the political anxieties within the U.S. and highlights the shortsightedness of certain politicians, as true leadership involves adhering to contractual obligations and international rules [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. fiat currency system is facing structural risks, with stablecoins being positioned as a key mechanism to rebuild the credibility of the dollar system [1][2] - Long-term industrial hollowing has led to a high dependence of the U.S. economy on global capital inflows, while rising inflation and interest rates have increased fiscal burdens, creating significant debt rollover pressure [1] - A large proportion of current U.S. fiscal revenue is allocated to servicing national debt interest, indicating a declining ability for fiscal self-balancing and increased volatility in dollar and U.S. Treasury asset values [1] Group 2 - The stablecoin legislation is viewed as a systematic response to the challenges faced by the dollar system, with stablecoins essentially being "dollar cash" on the blockchain, backed by compliant assets, primarily U.S. Treasuries [1] - This design transforms the demand for stablecoins in the blockchain market into real purchasing power for U.S. Treasuries, thereby introducing new external support for the imbalanced dollar credit system [1] - Recent global financial market recognition of the institutional logic behind stablecoin legislation has led to a balance in the buying and selling forces in the U.S. Treasury market, with significant recovery in U.S. stock and crypto asset prices [2]

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Overview - As of July 2025, the total market capitalization of stablecoins reached $260 billion, with over 98% being dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT and USDC[2][15] - Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) dominate the market, accounting for approximately 86% of the total stablecoin market[12][15] - The stablecoin market has shown strong growth, with a 22% increase in the first half of 2025 alone[15] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Treasury Bonds - Stablecoins have created new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, particularly short-term bonds, with Tether being the seventh-largest U.S. Treasury buyer globally, holding over $120 billion[3][21] - The "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoin issuers maintain a 1:1 reserve with high-quality liquid assets, primarily short-term U.S. Treasury securities[3][17] - The focus on short-term bonds may exacerbate the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as stablecoins have minimal impact on long-term bonds[3][37] Group 3: Strengthening the Dollar's Position - Stablecoins have not undermined the dollar's global dominance; instead, they have enhanced its efficiency and usage, particularly in high-inflation countries[4][51] - The regulatory framework in the U.S. and Hong Kong supports the growth of stablecoins, with the latter allowing multi-currency pegging, potentially challenging the dollar's supremacy[5][62] - Stablecoins facilitate cross-border transactions, significantly reducing costs and increasing the speed of transfers compared to traditional banking methods[58] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The reliance on stablecoins poses risks, including potential loss of control over the dollar's monetary policy and vulnerabilities highlighted by events like the Silicon Valley Bank incident[4][60] - The long-term credit risk of the U.S. dollar remains a concern, as increasing national debt could undermine confidence in stablecoins[5][60] - Regulatory changes and market volatility present ongoing risks to the stability and growth of the stablecoin market[68]

Group 1 - The article highlights the weak performance of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - Gold prices are rising in the Asian market, approaching the previous high of 3375, suggesting a bullish trend [1] - There is speculation about whether the current rebound in gold prices will reach a peak or continue to rise [1]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index remained flat last Friday, with Federal Reserve Governor Waller's comments on interest rate cuts boosting U.S. Treasury bonds, while oil prices slightly declined and gold and industrial metals increased [1] - Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party faced historic losses in the Senate elections, but Prime Minister Kishida stated he would continue to govern [1] - After visiting Japan, Bessenet expressed optimism about a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan following a meeting with Prime Minister Kishida [1] Group 2 - U.S. consumer confidence reached a five-month high, with significant declines in inflation expectations [1] - China's Vice Minister of Finance, Liao Min, reported that the balance of China's economy is good, with domestic consumption's share of GDP continuously rising; more proactive fiscal policies and high-level opening-up will be implemented in the second half of the year [1] - Reports indicate that NVIDIA's H20 inventory is limited, and there are no plans for production resumption; CEO Jensen Huang sold NVIDIA shares worth approximately $12.94 million [1] Group 3 - Bank of America’s Hartnett noted that all sell signals for U.S. stocks have been triggered, but the real selling catalyst may not be in the stock market but in the bond market [1] - A reminder was issued that China's July LPR will be announced today [1]

Core Insights - The GENIUS Act is expected to create significant demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, as stated by Trump's AI and cryptocurrency advisor, Sacks [1] Group 1 - The GENIUS Act aims to enhance the integration of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency within the financial system, potentially leading to increased investment in U.S. Treasury securities [1] - Sacks emphasizes that the legislation will not only foster innovation but also stabilize the financial markets by driving demand for government bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around stablecoins is gaining traction, with varying interpretations of their purpose and implications, particularly in the context of U.S. debt management and financial strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Purpose of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are designed to address the limitations of traditional cryptocurrencies by being pegged to real assets, specifically the U.S. dollar, at a 1:1 ratio, enhancing their liquidity and payment functionality [3]. - The introduction of stablecoins is not merely a hasty response to U.S. debt issues but part of a broader strategy to reclaim monetary authority and strengthen the U.S. government's financial management capabilities [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Debt and Financial Leadership - Stablecoins aim to mitigate the risk of U.S. debt defaults and increase demand for both the dollar and U.S. Treasury securities, although they do not resolve long-term debt challenges [3]. - The U.S. seeks to reinforce its financial leadership position globally, which has been somewhat weakened in recent decades, by leveraging stablecoins and their inherent financial attributes [3][4]. Group 3: Competitive Dynamics - The decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies is utilized to undermine the competitiveness of rival sovereign currencies, reflecting the intensifying competition in international trade and finance [4]. - The trend towards stablecoins is becoming irreversible, as evidenced by the increasing adoption of existing stablecoins like Tether and Circle, prompting other nations to reconsider their stance on cryptocurrencies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department's May International Capital Flow Report indicates a significant increase in foreign investment in U.S. securities, highlighting ongoing demand for U.S. Treasury bonds despite recent geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Foreign Investment in U.S. Securities - As of May, foreign investors held a total of $9.0458 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, marking the second-highest level in history [1]. - In May, foreign investors net increased their holdings of U.S. securities by $311.1 billion, reversing a net reduction of $50.6 billion in April [1][4]. - The top three foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds as of May are Japan, the UK, and China, with China holding $756.3 billion, a decrease of $0.9 billion from the previous month [1][8]. Group 2: Changes in Long-term Securities - In May, foreign investors transitioned from a net reduction of $50.6 billion in long-term securities in April to a net increase of $318.5 billion, primarily driven by private foreign investments [4]. - Adjusting for stock swaps, foreign investors net reduced their holdings of U.S. long-term securities by $259.4 billion in May, a significant increase from the previous month's reduction of $7.8 billion [4]. Group 3: Trends in U.S. Treasury Holdings - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for three consecutive months, maintaining a level below $1 trillion since April 2022 [6][7]. - Other countries, including Luxembourg and the Cayman Islands, have increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with Canada notably increasing its holdings by $61.7 billion in May [8].

Summary of Conference Call on Stablecoins and Global Monetary Changes Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the global monetary changes and the emergence of stablecoins as a significant financial instrument in the evolving monetary landscape [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Nature of Money**: Money is defined as a social consensus accounting symbol, which does not necessarily need to be issued by centralized entities. The key is the belief and trust in its value [4][5]. 2. **Evolution of Gold Pricing**: Since 2022, the pricing framework for gold has changed significantly, making it unlikely to revert to previous models based on real interest rates [1]. 3. **Emergence of Stablecoins**: Stablecoins have gained attention due to regulatory developments in the US and Hong Kong, emerging as a product of the global monetary changes and the trend towards decentralization [2][3]. 4. **Trust and Credit**: The trust in stablecoins is primarily based on the credit of fiat currencies, particularly the US dollar, which underpins most stablecoins [6][9]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: The stablecoin market has seen significant growth, with a total market cap of approximately $245 billion, representing about 7% of the total new currency market [20]. 6. **Types of Stablecoins**: Stablecoins can be categorized into three types: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins, each with different mechanisms for maintaining value stability [17][18]. 7. **Impact on US Dollar**: The development of stablecoins is seen as enhancing the dominance of the US dollar rather than undermining it, as they facilitate access to dollar liquidity in regions with unstable currencies [10][27]. 8. **Regulatory Environment**: Recent US regulations require that for every dollar of stablecoin issued, there must be an equivalent dollar in compliant assets, which aims to enhance trust and stability in the market [25][26]. 9. **Short-term Debt Market**: While stablecoins may increase demand for short-term US debt, their overall impact on interest rates is limited, as the Federal Reserve primarily influences these rates [11][28]. 10. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term development of stablecoins is expected to be significant, particularly in cross-border payments, but their growth will depend on the underlying trust in the US dollar and the broader economic context [14][29]. Other Important Insights - **Global Trade and Monetary Systems**: The interconnectedness of global trade and monetary systems means that changes in one area can significantly impact the other, particularly regarding trust in currencies [3][13]. - **Emerging Markets**: Stablecoins are becoming increasingly important in emerging markets, where they provide a means for individuals and businesses to access stable currency alternatives [24]. - **Misconceptions about Stablecoins**: Common misconceptions include the belief that stablecoins weaken the dollar and that all currencies can issue stablecoins, which is not the case as most are dollar-pegged [15][19]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding stablecoins and their role in the evolving global monetary landscape.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Senate version of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the federal budget deficit by an additional $95 billion over 10 years (from fiscal year 2025 to 2034) compared to the House version, intensifying the US fiscal balance pressure. The Trump administration will mainly rely on tariffs and cuts in government discretionary spending to balance the deficit [3][11]. - If the Trump administration significantly raises tariffs, it may face more domestic resistance and cause greater inflation uncertainty, potentially exacerbating the US government's financing difficulties. The Fed may restart interest rate cuts in October after observing the impact of tariffs on inflation from June to August [3][12]. - In July, US tariff policies will reach two critical junctures. On July 9, the tariff grace - period for most trading partners expires. A significant tariff increase may benefit gold and harm US Treasuries, while a reduction in trade friction has the opposite effect. Around the end of July, the US Federal Appellate Court will hold a hearing on a tariff ruling. If the court does not support the Trump administration, it may increase concerns about US fiscal balance and harm US Treasuries [3][14]. - From June 30 to July 5, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.75% week - on - week and decreased by 16.16% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 2.26% week - on - week, but the year - on - year decline widened to 9.35%. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.20% week - on - week and decreased by 5.23% year - on - year [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The Senate version of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the federal budget deficit by an additional $95 billion over 10 years compared to the House version. The Trump administration will mainly rely on tariffs and cuts in government discretionary spending to balance the deficit. After the bill passes, the US fiscal balance pressure increases, and there is uncertainty about future fiscal policies [11]. - If the Trump administration significantly raises tariffs, it may face more domestic resistance and cause greater inflation uncertainty, potentially exacerbating the US government's financing difficulties. The Fed may restart interest rate cuts in October after observing the impact of tariffs on inflation from June to August [12]. - In July, US tariff policies will reach two critical junctures. On July 9, the tariff grace - period for most trading partners expires. A significant tariff increase may benefit gold and harm US Treasuries, while a reduction in trade friction has the opposite effect. Around the end of July, the US Federal Appellate Court will hold a hearing on a tariff ruling. If the court does not support the Trump administration, it may increase concerns about US fiscal balance and harm US Treasuries. The risk of the US unilaterally escalating tariffs in the short - term is relatively high [14]. - The report provides week - on - week and year - on - year data on various high - frequency indicators such as food, energy, and metals, including the average wholesale price of pork, vegetable prices, and crude oil prices [17][18]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators - The document shows the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators through multiple charts, and the data sources are mainly Wind and BOC Securities [22]. Key High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report presents US and European high - frequency indicators through charts, including US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, and the data sources are mainly Wind, Bloomberg, and BOC Securities [77][80][81]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through charts, and the data sources are mainly Wind and BOC Securities [90]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen through charts, and the data source is Wind [141][143].