Group 1 - The international spot gold price declined on August 11, 2025, primarily due to weakened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a stronger dollar, and a rebound in global risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule for 2025 has led to a stronger dollar index, reducing the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [2] - If core inflation in the U.S. remains sticky, a prolonged high interest rate environment may continue to suppress gold prices [2] Group 3 - A rebound in global risk appetite, driven by strong performance in equity markets (such as U.S. and A-shares) or easing geopolitical tensions, may lead to a shift of funds from gold to risk assets [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美元指数回落，有色板块反弹 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-8-11 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | ...

Group 1: Core Views - Recent leveraged funds continue to flow in, with the total margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion this week. The market sentiment remains optimistic, but the increase in the ratio of margin trading to market capitalization is limited. The 2 trillion mark has stronger signaling meaning than practical meaning and may trigger reverse trading, weakening risk appetite [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", creating credit demand for banks through monetary structured tools, supporting the manufacturing industry, and stimulating a rapid rebound in the banking sector [2]. - US employment data released last week plunged, increasing market bets on interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has continued to decline to around 98, and foreign capital has replenished A - share positions, supporting the sentiment in the mainland market after the A - share index correction [2]. - This week's total A - share trading volume slightly decreased compared to last week, with daily trading around 1.6 trillion. Most broad - based indices recovered last week's losses, with small - and medium - cap stocks remaining strong. The CSI 1000 rose more than 2%, and together with the CSI 2000 and micro - cap stock indices, reached new highs for the year. Large - cap broad - based indices rose slightly more than 1% this week [2]. - The downward support for basis has weakened, and the intraday structured divergence in trends among varieties has increased. The risk appetite shown in the futures market has declined, and there is a need to guard against the risk of a slowdown in the index's upward rate or even a continuous adjustment [2]. - As of Friday, the annualized basis of each variety was basically the same as last week, with the annualized discounts of IC and IM still around 10% and 11% respectively [2]. Group 2: Weekly Forecast - The model's judgment on the movement direction of the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week is: strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rebound in spot gold prices, nearing $3,400 per ounce, is primarily influenced by the Chinese central bank's continuous increase in gold reserves for foreign exchange hedging rather than a bullish outlook on gold itself [1] - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves reached 73.96 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from June, marking nine consecutive months of gold accumulation by the central bank [1] - The decline in the US dollar index is negatively correlated with gold prices, leading to an increase in gold prices as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve grow, alongside concerns about a potential economic recession in the US [1] Group 2 - International investment banks, such as Citigroup, have recently shifted their stance to a bullish outlook on gold, raising their price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, indicating potential upward price movement [2] - Despite the optimistic price targets of $3,500 to $3,600 per ounce, the overall expectation suggests a narrowing of upward space for gold prices, indicating a likely continuation of range-bound trading without significant new capital inflows [4] - For individual investors holding gold-related assets, maintaining positions is crucial, while new purchases should be approached with caution, as significant price fluctuations are not anticipated in the near term [4]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - Copper prices have been mainly fluctuating recently. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized. In the short term, it's hard to see LME copper prices continuously higher than COMEX copper prices. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The sharp decline led by COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets, and investors should be wary of the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,460 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - When finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it's recommended to short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - When raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it's recommended to long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US and other countries have reached an agreement on tariff policies - The US dollar index has declined due to employment data - There is obvious support at the lower level [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand has decreased due to tariff policies - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy has led to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5][6] Copper Market Data Futures Market - Shanghai Copper main contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan, 0.23% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract: 78,440 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - LME 3M copper: 9,670.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars, - 0.04% daily change - Shanghai - London ratio: 8.15, unchanged, 0% daily change [6] Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 78,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, 0.19% daily change - Shanghai Wumaomao: 78,465 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan, 0.17% daily change - Guangdong Southern Reserve: 78,330 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan, 0.18% daily change - Yangtze Non - ferrous: 78,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan, 0.13% daily change [7] Refined - Scrap Spread - Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 660.43 yuan/ton, down 173.61 yuan, - 20.82% daily change - Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 1,483.2 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan, - 0.19% daily change - Price advantage (tax - included): - 822.77 yuan/ton, down 170.81 yuan, 26.2% daily change [9] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts: total 20,145 tons, down 201 tons, - 0.99% daily change - LME copper inventory: total 156,000 tons, down 125 tons, - 0.08% daily change - COMEX copper inventory: total 263,296 tons, up 5,381 tons, 2.09% weekly change [13][15][18] Import and Processing - Copper import profit and loss: - 141.8 yuan/ton, up 120.22 yuan, - 45.88% daily change - Copper concentrate TC: - 41 US dollars/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change [19]

Group 1 - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $329.22 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion from the end of June, representing a decline of 0.76% [1] - The decline in foreign exchange reserves was influenced by macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and expectations from major economies, leading to an increase in the US dollar index [1][2] - The US dollar index rose by 3.4% in July, reaching a peak of 100.1042 on July 31, the highest since May 23, contributing to the depreciation of non-US currencies [1] Group 2 - The fluctuation in foreign exchange reserves was also affected by the performance of global financial assets, with the US stock indices reaching new highs, providing some support to the reserves [2] - China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with long-term supportive conditions for maintaining stable foreign exchange reserves [2] - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves increased to 7.396 million ounces, up by 60,000 ounces from the end of June, marking nine consecutive months of gold accumulation by the People's Bank of China [2] Group 3 - The international gold price continued to fluctuate in July, while China's central bank maintained a steady pace of gold accumulation [3] - In the medium term, uncertainties in global trade and geopolitical factors are expected to drive central banks and investors to increase gold investments [3] - The long-term strategy of diversifying international reserves and dynamically adjusting gold reserves will remain unchanged, with a continued focus on increasing gold holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, reflecting a decrease of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The decline in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to factors such as macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and expectations from major economies, leading to fluctuations in global financial asset prices [1] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange indicated that despite the decrease, the long-term supportive conditions and fundamental trends for maintaining foreign exchange reserves remain unchanged due to China's strong economic foundation, advantages, resilience, and potential [1]

Group 1 - The latest statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that as of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $329.22 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion from the end of June, representing a decline of 0.76% [1] - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.2 trillion for 20 consecutive months, indicating stability in the reserves despite fluctuations in global financial asset prices [1] - The appreciation of the US dollar and depreciation of non-US currencies have contributed to the decrease in foreign exchange reserves when calculated in dollar terms [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves consistently for nine months, with the official gold reserves reaching 7.396 million ounces by the end of July, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month [1] - The monthly increase in gold reserves has been maintained at around 60,000 to 70,000 ounces since April, reflecting a strategic balance between optimizing reserve structure and controlling acquisition costs [2] - It is anticipated that countries will continue to increase their gold reserves in the medium term, with a long-term strategy of diversifying international reserves and dynamically adjusting gold holdings [2]

Group 1 - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $329.22 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion from the end of June, representing a decline of 0.76% [1] - The decline in foreign exchange reserves was influenced by macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and expectations from major economies, leading to an increase in the US dollar index and a mixed performance in global financial asset prices [1][2] - The US dollar index rose by 3.4% in July, reaching a peak of 100.1042 on July 31, marking the highest level since May 23 [1] Group 2 - The depreciation of non-US currencies against the dollar resulted in a negative valuation effect on foreign exchange reserves, as the reserves are denominated in dollars [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7.396 million ounces as of the end of July, adding 60,000 ounces since the end of June, continuing a trend of increasing gold holdings for nine consecutive months [2] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to its advantages in hedging against risks, inflation, and maintaining value, with central banks expected to continue increasing gold investments amid global uncertainties [3]

当天更新的官方储备资产数据显示，2025年7月末，中国官方黄金储备为7396万盎司，较上月末增加6万盎司。目前，中国央行已连续9个月增持黄金。 外储继续站稳3.2万亿美元 外汇储备是外汇资产，以美元作为记账货币。过去一个月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数上涨，全球金融资产价格涨跌互 现，我国外汇储备规模环比下降。 受当月美国与海外多个发达经济体达成贸易协议推动，以及市场对美联储降息预期下降等因素影响，7月美元指数明显回升，结束了此前连续5个月的下跌走势。美 元指数的回升也导致非美元货币在7月集体贬值。"由于外储以美元计价，非美货币贬值减少了经汇率折算后的外汇储备规模。"民生银行首席经济学家温彬对证券时 报记者说。 美联储降息预期的降温则进一步影响到全球资产价格，7月以来全球主要股指普遍上涨，对外储形成支撑。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，我国外储中的全球 金融资产价格总体上涨，在很大程度上对冲了美元升值带来的影响。 国家外汇管理局（下称外汇局）8月7日发布的最新统计数据显示，截至2025年7月末，中国外汇储备规模32922亿美元，较6月末下降252亿美 元，降幅为0.76%。目前 ...