智通财经APP获悉，上周，众议院预算委员会以21:16的投票结果否决了特朗普力推的全面减税法 案"One Big, Beautiful Bill"，虽然后续投下反对票的强硬保守派议员中有四位选择了"弃权"，使得法案 最终以17：16的投票结果通过，但摩根大通认为，这暴露出共和党内部在财政政策优先级和立法时间表 上的深刻分歧。 法案核心内容与争议焦点 摩根大通在一份报告中表示，该法案旨在落实特朗普竞选承诺，核心内容包括： 税收政策：永久降低个人和企业税率，临时取消小费和加班费征税，将州和地方税收(SALT)抵扣上限 从1万美元提高至3万美元(适用于年收入低于40万美元的家庭)，并计划将债务上限提高4万亿美元。 财政紧缩：拟削减约1.5万亿美元开支，主要来自医疗补助(Medicaid)削减，预计未来十年可节省超9000 亿美元，但可能导致2034年至少860万人失去医疗保险。 经济影响：联合税收委员会(JCT)预测，法案未来十年将增加3.7万亿美元联邦债务;税收基金会则认为， 这对长期GDP增长的推动作用仅为0.6%，远低于2017年税改法案的 1.7%。负责任联邦预算委员会 (CRFB)进一步指出，如果法案中的 ...

周四（5月8日）亚盘早盘，英镑兑美元暂报1.3345，涨幅0.44%，昨日收盘报1.3287。英国央行今日预 计降息25个基点，将基准利率降至4.25%，累计降息幅度达100个基点。 关注焦点转向英国央行是否会暗示未来几个月加快降息步伐。贸易战争风险已显现，财政政策路径也要 求货币政策进行对冲，这意味着未来降息速度可能更快、幅度更大。英国央行此前强调"渐进和谨慎"的 降息方式，但贸易战争和财政风险表明需要改变这一策略。市场已从预期季度降息转向连续降息， SONIA数据显示市场已完全定价5月降息，并且6月、8月、9月和11月降息的可能性也较高。经济前景 仍不明朗，尽管增长风险偏向下行，但英国央行内部可能仍需看到更多证据才会发出明确的降息信号。 无论贸易战争、财政紧缩还是全球增长放缓，英国经济增长可能进一步放缓，这将推动更快的通缩，从 而增加连续降息的风险。如果不加快降息速度，预计降息周期将延续至2026年，终端利率可能降至 2.75%。6月更有可能成为英国央行转向鸽派立场的时间点，届时可能确认连续降息的开始。 英镑兑美元日线图上，布林带指标显示上轨位于1.3580，中轨位于1.3154，下轨位于1.2728，当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new round of tariffs announced by Trump has led to a significant decline in global stock markets, with Vietnam and Japan experiencing the largest drops, while gold prices reached new highs [1][2]. Tariff Details - The new tariff policy consists of a baseline tariff increase of 10% effective from April 5, which is lower than market expectations. The retaliatory tariffs, effective from April 9, are significantly higher than anticipated, with China facing a 34% tariff (totaling 54%), the EU 20%, Japan 24%, Vietnam 46%, India 26%, and South Korea 25% [3][6]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, stock markets globally fell, with Vietnam's market plummeting by 7% and Japan's by 3%. The A-share and H-share markets also continued to adjust, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.24% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.52%. The Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.35 against the US dollar [3][6]. Reasons for Tariff Increases - The Trump administration's rationale for increasing tariffs includes addressing trade imbalances, national security concerns, domestic political factors, and economic benefits. The administration believes that unfair trade practices by China contribute to the trade deficit and that tariffs can protect U.S. industries and generate government revenue [6][7]. Economic Implications - The tariffs pose a risk of "stagflation" for the U.S. economy, as consumers may face higher costs leading to reduced demand and increased economic pressure. The tariffs are expected to raise price levels and create upward pressure on inflation in the short term. Consumer inflation expectations have surged, with a significant increase noted in March [9]. The Federal Reserve may find it challenging to lower interest rates in the short term due to these economic pressures [9].

Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何看待近期美股市场调整 ？ 3. 美国经济发生深度衰退的可能性很低。受益于过去几年的财政扩张，居民和企业部门的资产 负债表目前非常健康，财政紧缩可能使美国经济受到一定冲击，但演变为深度衰退的可能性很 低。 总的来看，我们倾向于美国本轮下跌调整（跌幅10-15%）的概率大于熊市（跌幅20%）的概 率。后续市场走势一方面取决于特朗普政府财政紧缩和关税等方面的实际动作，更重要的是观 察特朗普政府主要官员对股市评论措辞的变化，观察政策期权何时出现。 免责声明 2. 财政紧缩预期压制增长前景。马斯克主导的政府效率部DOGE冻结了大量政府外包合同，计 划大规模削减联邦雇员，其影响已经在2月美国挑战者裁员报告等数据上开始显现。 3. 政策叙事转向"经济排毒论"。特朗普政府官员近期频繁提及"美国经济需要转型期"，财长贝 森特称"过去依赖财政扩张、移民红利和全球化红利的增长模式不可持续"。这种叙事转变动摇 了市场对"高增长-高估值"逻辑的信仰。 但从现实来看，美国经济恶化速度并没有那么快。 1. 关税对消费影响有限。据测算，美国进口消费品仅占私人消费支出的4%，即便对墨、加、中 全面加征25%关税，受影 ...

Economic Outlook - The GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed predicts a significant drop in the US GDP growth rate to -1.5%, marking the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [1][2] - This prediction has been revised down from nearly 4% just a month ago, indicating a sharp decline in economic expectations [1] - The impact of trade tariffs and fiscal tightening under the Trump administration is raising concerns about future economic growth [2] Real Estate Market - In February, Guangzhou's new residential property sales surged by 59% year-on-year, with a total of 36.27 million square meters sold [3][4] - The second-hand housing market also showed strong performance, with a 29.04% increase in transactions, indicating a recovery in market confidence [3][4] - The increase in sales is attributed to a rise in market activity post-Spring Festival and a favorable policy environment [4] Corporate Developments - Alibaba plans to invest at least 380 billion yuan (approximately 53 billion USD) in cloud computing and AI infrastructure over the next three years, marking the largest investment in this sector by a private company in China [6] - BYD announced a rapid placement of 1.298 billion H-shares at a price of 335.2 HKD per share, raising approximately 435 billion HKD, aimed at R&D and international expansion [7][8] - Hema is shifting focus from its X membership stores to expanding its fresh food stores, planning to open nearly 100 new locations [9][10] Technology Sector - IBM has officially shut down its China investment company, marking a significant reduction in its R&D presence in the country [11][12] - This move reflects IBM's struggle to keep pace with competitors in the AI and cloud computing sectors, leading to a strategic retreat from the Chinese market [12] Market Stability Proposals - A proposal has been made to establish a 10 trillion yuan stock market stabilization fund to support the Chinese economy and boost market confidence [13][14] - The establishment of a real estate stabilization fund is also suggested, although its implementation may face challenges due to liquidity issues in the housing market [14]