2025年白银大涨的核心驱动力，如今已经是公开的秘密。和其他贵金属一样，白银也搭上了"货币贬值交易"的东风，同时还受益于 低利率、居高不下的通胀、地缘局势动荡、美元走弱、各国央行的购金需求，以及光伏、电动汽车等行业带来的强劲工业需求。 2025年白银价格暴涨近130%，涨幅几乎是黄金的两倍，这让部分分析师不禁怀疑，这轮涨势是不是已经过头了。 2025年多个时段还出现了白银现货短缺的情况，这也是助推银价多次大幅跳涨的原因之一。 富国银行投资研究所的萨米尔·萨马纳（Sameer Samana），以及独立研究机构Spectra Markets的布雷特·唐纳利（Brett Donnelly）都 认为，白银后续想要继续上涨会难上加难，在经历了这场创纪录的大涨之后，它也该歇歇脚了。 尽管有上述种种利好，唐纳利却认为，白银的涨幅已经远超基本面的支撑。 他表示："这轮上涨大多是靠市场情绪冲动推动的，和现实中的供需、经济情况几乎没什么关系。"他指出，近几个月白银价格一路 高歌猛进，但美国的财政赤字并没有出现实质性变化，股票这类同样属于"货币贬值"的对冲工具，却早已失去了上涨势头。 唐纳利并不建议现在就做空白银，但他想传递的核心 ...

How would you you follow this obviously, at a granular level. How would you sum up the year in gold. There's been a remarkable year.It's kind of been one of those periods of time when gold, I think, has managed to punch its way into the mainstream of kind of the the debate in financial markets. And I think that has been mostly just a reflection of its price. You know, it's set it's up about 63% now or something like that, which, as you say, is its best year since 1979.And then I think as well as that, I thi ...

过去靠信仰，看准一个方向，单压一类资产就能躺赢的时代，或许真的已经走远。 深夜看似平静，资金却在暗涌。 当市场还在惊叹白银凌厉的涨势——年内飙涨近120%，直逼1979年以来最强表现。周五，一盘冷水就迎头浇下，COMEX白银自高位跳水5%。而早在11 月，市场就已流传摩根大通【囤积白银，空美元信用】的传言。风暴，从来不是突然降临。 黄金触及4386美元高位后急速回落100美元，率先修复的道指、罗素2000刷新历史高点后集体跳水。 AI赛道更是抛售重灾区：业绩超预期的博通暴跌11%，被爆出"数据中心建设推迟竣工"鬼故事的甲骨文再跌4%，较高点已回撤42%…… 黄金、白银、美股全线跳水的背后，资金的抛售情绪骤然浓郁，市场究竟在恐惧什么？ 草蛇灰线，伏脉千里。 与其被杂音干扰：一会儿"流动性紧张"，一会儿"鹰派降息"，一会儿"日本央行加息"，一会儿"AI泡沫"——不如回归最诚实的语言：K线。 真金白银画出的走势里，埋藏着当下全球市场几个关键变量。 1 10月高点后，谁在悄悄收复失地？ 从10月高点算起，不同资产的复苏节奏已经悄然分化： 最先收复失地的是白银、LME铜、日本东证指数、道指和罗素2000。标普500、C ...

Group 1 - The German Finance Ministry canceled the planned issuance of commemorative silver coins due to the significant rise in silver prices, which exceeded the face value of the coins [1] - Silver prices surged to $63.86 per ounce, nearly double from the previous year, significantly outpacing gold's nearly 60% increase [1] - The recent price increase of silver is reminiscent of historical surges in the late 1970s and 2008, but it has not been accompanied by a collapse in stock or bond markets [1] Group 2 - The rise in silver prices is driven by a mix of greed and fear, with industrial demand increasing, particularly from electric vehicles and computing chips, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [2] - The U.S. government's designation of silver as a strategic commodity has raised concerns about potential tariffs, exacerbating the supply issues and leading to hoarding in the domestic market [2] - There are reports of financial players exploiting price discrepancies between markets, reminiscent of speculative distortions seen in the past [2] Group 3 - Retail investor enthusiasm is growing, driven by a "fear of missing out" on investments in AI, gold, and cryptocurrencies, leading some to turn to silver due to its practical uses [3] - Concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's actions, including interest rate cuts and bond purchases, are causing investors to view silver and gold as hedges against currency devaluation [3][4] - The unusual pattern of rising long-term interest rates during a Fed rate-cutting cycle is prompting some investors to consider precious metals as a safeguard against inflation and sovereign default risks [4] Group 4 - The uncertainty surrounding potential actions by President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve and tariffs is intensifying the prevailing atmosphere of fear and greed in the market [5] - The canceled commemorative coin symbolizes the current market climate, where excitement and anxiety coexist, reflecting broader economic concerns [5]

12月6日，随着资金持续涌入，黄金交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）的持仓量在月末攀升至历史新高，进一步助推了金价的炽热涨 势。 根据世界黄金协会（WGC）的数据，全球黄金ETF在11月底的总持仓量升至3932吨，连续第六个月增长。其中，2025年新增买入就 超过700吨，使得今年有望成为黄金ETF史上持仓增幅最大的一年。 在主要经济体财政赤字引发担忧之际，这种"货币贬值交易"使得贵金属和比特币等资产受益。随着美联储展示出更愿意降息的态度， 较低的借贷成本也为黄金等无收益资产提供了顺风。 StoneX Financial市场分析主管Rhona O'Connell表示："在过去四到六个月里，ETF投资者是价格的塑造者，而非跟随者。" 她补充说，鉴于当前市场正普遍回流至包括黄金在内的硬资产，近期的资金流入仍可能持续。 WGC也在周四发布的报告中预测，"美债收益率下行、地缘政治风险高企叠加显著增强的避险需求，将为黄金提供极为强劲的顺 风。" "在这一情景下，金价有望从当前位置再上涨15%到30%。" WGC数据还显示，除了5月份外，今年每个月ETF黄金持仓在美元价值和吨数上都录得增长。亚洲是11月资金流入的主要来源，其 ...

交易所交易基金（ETF）的黄金持仓量攀升至月底峰值，这表明投资者资金的持续流入正在给热得发烫的金价再添一把火。 FXTM高级研究分析师Lukman Otunuga表示："市场押注美联储将在下周降息，这在一定程度上提振了金价。" 无论是按美元价值还是按吨位计算，今年除5月外，ETF持仓量每个月都在上涨。亚洲是11月资金流入的主要推动力，其中中国是增长的最大单一贡献者， 这主要是受到股市疲软和地缘政治紧张局势的驱动。WGC数据显示，印度也已录得连续六个月的净流入。 此外，在截至周四的短短四天内，白银ETF的持仓增量就已经超过了自7月以来任何一个完整周的总和。 自2022年底以来，金价一直稳步上涨，但这股涨势在今年急剧加速。作为避险资产，黄金正迈向1979年以来最好的年度表现，投资者为了规避风险，纷纷撤 离主权债券和货币，转而涌入另类资产。 出于对主要经济体财政赤字的担忧，这种所谓的"货币贬值交易"让贵金属受益匪浅。此外，随着美联储表现出更强的降息意愿，投资者也被黄金吸引，因为 借贷成本降低对黄金这种非收益资产来说是个顺风车。 StoneX Financial Ltd.的市场分析主管Rhona O'Connell表 ...

来源：@央视财经微博 【#美元走弱推高金价银价# #2026年金银价格还会涨吗#】当地时间周一，在市场对美联储降息预期升 温的带动下，国际金价升至六周新高，国际银价也连续第二个交易日刷新历史纪录。[话筒]美联储降息 预期升温叠加美元走弱，推高贵金属价格。CME联邦利率期货显示，目前市场押注美联储12月降息25 个基点的概率约是87%，接近九成，这也导致隔夜美元指数下跌至两周左右的低点。利率走低，利好贵 金属这类无息资产。此外，有分析人士形容，近期这种贵金属齐上涨的走势是一种"货币贬值交易"。 [话筒]供应趋紧，白银涨幅超越黄金。此外，市场还担心美国未来可能会对白银和铜征收关税。这也促 使大量白银和铜提前流入美国市场，可能会进一步加剧其他地区供应紧张。[话筒]德意志银行预计，明 年投资者对白银需求有望进一步走强，而工业端供应可能继续收紧。另有分析指出，市场预期下一任美 联储主席可能相比鲍威尔会更偏鸽派，这也将支撑金银的价格。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 来源：@央视财经微博 【#美元走弱推高金价银价# #2026年金银价格还会涨吗#】当地时间周一，在市场对美联储降息预期升 温的带动下，国际金价升至六 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have recently reached record highs, indicating strong demand and market interest in the precious metal [1] - The debasement trade, which has significantly contributed to the rally in gold prices this year, remains active and influential [1] Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices has been sustained for over two weeks, reflecting ongoing investor confidence [1] - The debasement trade is characterized by a strategy where investors seek to hedge against currency devaluation, which continues to support gold's appeal [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio emphasizes that gold is a form of currency that is least likely to depreciate or be confiscated, reinforcing its historical role as a stable monetary asset [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Significance - Throughout history, currencies have either been backed by hard assets or have been fiat currencies, with the former allowing fixed exchange rates to convert paper money into tangible assets [3]. - The collapse of currency systems often occurs when there is significant debt, leading to either a deflationary depression or inflationary pressures depending on whether governments adhere to or abandon gold convertibility [3]. - Since the shift to a pure fiat currency system in 1971, historical analysis of previous fiat systems during debt excess has become increasingly relevant, with central banks typically resorting to significant money supply increases, driving inflation and gold prices higher [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Risk Considerations - While other currencies can store wealth effectively, holding cash can yield higher returns when interest rates sufficiently offset depreciation risks, suggesting a strategic approach to asset allocation based on market conditions [4]. - Gold's low confiscation risk is a significant advantage, as it does not rely on third-party payment promises and is immune to cyber attacks, making it a preferred asset during financial crises and geopolitical tensions [4][5]. - In times of monetary, debt crises, and wars, the value of gold tends to rise significantly due to increased confiscation risks, highlighting its role as a fundamental currency that has proven its value over millennia [5].

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent rise in gold prices is geopolitical tensions leading to significant increases in global central bank gold reserves and the efficiency of market participation through gold ETFs [1][2] - Historical data shows that gold prices have experienced two major upward cycles from 1970-1980 and 2000-2010, with central banks projected to purchase 1136 tons, 1037 tons, and 1045 tons of gold from 2022 to 2024, marking one of the fastest accumulation rates in modern history [1][2] - China's central bank has resumed gold purchases since November 2024, increasing its holdings for 11 consecutive months, while global central bank net gold purchases in Q1 2025 reached 244 tons, indicating a slowdown in buying speed [1][2] Group 2 - The recent significant drop in gold prices below the $4000 mark is attributed to its safe-haven properties, asset allocation diversification benefits, and market sentiment, with expectations of a new interest rate cut cycle emerging due to weak U.S. employment data and manageable inflation [2][3] - The ongoing high debt levels in major economies are prompting investors to prepare for "currency devaluation trades," thereby maintaining the long-term logic supporting gold prices [3]