贵金属日报 | 2025-06-24 特朗普称以伊将达成停火协议 原油大幅走低 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日特朗普在Truth Social上表示，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致，将会有一个完全和彻底的停火。（从现在开始 大约6个小时，当以色列和伊朗已经结束并完成他们正在进行的最后任务！）在12小时后，战争将被视为结束。伊 朗将先启动停火，到第12小时后，以色列将开始停火，24小时后，世界将向这场12天战争的正式结束致敬。在每 次停火期间，双方将保持和平和尊重。而伊朗高级官员也确认，德黑兰已同意由卡塔尔斡旋的、美国提出的与以 色列的停火协议。原油价格出现大幅回落。贵金属价格波动相对有限。此外，国内方面，工信部等九部门发表声 明称，目标到2027年，黄金资源量增长5%~10%，黄金、白银产量增长5%以上。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-23，沪金主力合约开于 777.26元/克，收于 781.30元/克，较前一交易日收盘 0.35%。当日成交量为 158979手，持仓量为 152462手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 782.00 元/克，收于 786.10 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.56%。 2025-06- ...

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 6 月 19 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1 / 8 大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，受昨日议息会议影响，贵金属继续小幅回调，伦敦 金当前交投于 3369 美元附近，伦敦银当前交投于 36.4 美元附近。受外盘驱动， 沪金主力合约收跌 0.49%，报 781.24 元/克，沪银主力合约收跌 1.91%，报 8819 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数持续反弹，当前交投于 98.9 附近。 3.美债收益率：休市。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率高位盘整，当前交投于 7.187 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.美联储 6 月议息会议：①连续第四次维持利率不变，②点阵图显示今年降息 两次，但预计今年不降息 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with the overall market sentiment affected by rising geopolitical risks and domestic economic conditions [9][10] - As of June 16, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3377.00, down 0.75%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.10% and 1.13% respectively [2][6] Economic Indicators - In the first five months of 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 18.63 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [18][19] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 2025 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 13, 2025, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% [20][21] Industry Dynamics - The State Council is optimizing drug and consumable procurement policies, which is expected to stabilize the operational expectations of pharmaceutical companies [28][30] - AMD and OpenAI have jointly launched new AI chips, significantly enhancing AI computing performance, with inference performance improved by 35 times [31][32] - In May 2025, the domestic energy storage EPC/system bidding reached 16.9 GWh, maintaining a similar scale to the previous month [34][35] - The prices of photovoltaic main materials continue to decline, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow in the future [37] Company Updates - Xiangyu Medical (688626.SH) plans to implement an employee stock ownership plan for 2025, targeting a performance growth rate in revenue and medical device registrations [39] - Huamin Co., Ltd. (300345.SZ) intends to invest up to 1 billion yuan to acquire approximately 8% of TianTai Company, a specialized robotics firm [41]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is struggling to maintain the 3400-point level, with significant support from major financial institutions such as banks, brokerages, and insurance companies [1] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with trading volumes not keeping pace, leading to increased volatility and sector rotation among hot sectors like innovative drugs, CPO, IP economy, precious metals, rare earth permanent magnets, and automotive parts [1] Key News - Ant Group concept stocks surged in Hong Kong, with Yunfeng Financial rising by 100% at one point and closing up approximately 60%, following news that Ant Group plans to apply for stablecoin licenses in Singapore and Hong Kong [2] - The innovative drug sector continues to rise, with stock prices increasing while price-to-earnings ratios are decreasing, indicating a potential value reassessment as corporate earnings growth outpaces stock price increases [2][4] Precious Metals - Gold stocks in A-shares experienced a sudden surge, with Hengbang Co. and Chaohongji both hitting the daily limit, driven by heightened demand for gold as a safe haven amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4] - Platinum and silver have also seen significant price increases, with platinum rising nearly 40% this year, surpassing gold's performance, and silver reaching a 13-year high above $36 per ounce [4][5] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand structure for platinum shows that 40% is used in automotive catalysts, 25% in jewelry, 20% for industrial purposes, and 9% for investment [6] - Silver's demand structure indicates that industrial demand accounts for 58.5%, jewelry for 17.9%, investment for 16.4%, and other uses for the remainder [7] - The supply-demand gap for platinum is expected to widen, with the World Platinum Investment Council projecting the lowest total supply in five years by 2025, while investment demand is significantly increasing [8] - The global industrial demand for silver is anticipated to exceed 55% by the end of 2025, with a projected supply gap of 8,800 tons, driven by the energy revolution and technological advancements [8] Investment Implications - The rise of white metals like silver and platinum is expected to boost the precious metals sector, with companies involved in the silver and platinum supply chain likely to benefit from this trend [8]

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/12 | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | - | - | - | 1062.00 | 68.15 | 9777.50 | | 变化 | - | - | - | -7.00 | 3.17 | 48.00 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 98.65 | 1.15 | 1.35 | 144.59 | - | | | 变化 | -0.41 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.31 | - | | 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | ...

Core Insights - Precious metals have been a symbol of wealth and power throughout history, and they play a crucial role in various modern industries, including technology, healthcare, and electronics [1] Group 1: Characteristics of Precious Metals - Precious metals are defined as rare, high-density metals with significant economic value, including Ruthenium (Ru), Rhodium (Rh), Palladium (Pd), Osmium (Os), Iridium (Ir), Platinum (Pt), Silver (Ag), and Gold (Au) [1] - The abundance of these metals in the Earth's crust is extremely low, with concentrations measured in grams per ton: Silver 0.1, Palladium 0.01, Gold and Platinum 0.005, and Rhodium, Iridium, Ruthenium, Osmium 0.001 [1] - Silver excels in electrical and thermal conductivity, while Gold ranks third, and Platinum group metals are known for their thermal stability in electronic applications [3] - Gold and Silver possess exceptional malleability, with 1 gram of Gold capable of being drawn into a wire measuring 3420 meters [3] Group 2: Applications of Precious Metals - Precious metals are ideal for jewelry due to their aesthetic qualities, with Silver reflecting white light most effectively and Gold reflecting infrared light strongly [4] - The ability of precious metals to absorb gases like oxygen and hydrogen makes them valuable in catalytic reactions and gas purification processes [6] - Precious metals exhibit high corrosion resistance, with Iridium being the most resistant, making them suitable for use in harsh chemical environments [7] - Palladium catalysts can enhance organic reaction rates by up to 1 million times, playing a vital role in automotive emissions control and petroleum refining [9] Group 3: Industry Impact - In the electronics industry, Gold, Silver, and Platinum are used for their excellent conductivity and stability, with Gold ensuring stable electronic signal transmission [13] - Platinum and Palladium are increasingly in demand for automotive catalytic converters due to stricter environmental regulations [14] - In aerospace, precious metals are used in high-temperature alloys for critical engine components, capable of withstanding extreme conditions [15] - Precious metals are essential in the chemical industry for processes like nitric acid production and petroleum reforming, improving reaction efficiency and reducing costs [18] Group 4: Financial and Economic Role - Historically, Gold and Silver served as currency and continue to influence monetary value, with central banks holding significant Gold reserves to enhance currency credibility [19] - The precious metals market is vast, with Gold being the largest segment, and prices are influenced by various factors, including economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [21] - Platinum and Palladium prices are closely tied to the automotive industry, with demand driven by vehicle sales and environmental regulations [21] Group 5: Future Outlook - Precious metals are positioned as key players in future technological advancements and sustainable development, serving as catalysts in energy and life sciences [22]

贵 金 属 比 价 贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/05 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3364.60 34.35 1058.00 1005.00 62.85 9634.50 变化 29.85 0.10 -13.00 41.00 -0.56 89.50 | 交 易 数 据 | | --- | | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | - | 1087.21 | 935.65 | 14552.37 | 1396.61 | 1 | 2 | | 变化 | - | 18.36 | 0.00 | 135.72 | 0.00 | -1.00 | 1.00 | 升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 以上图表数据来源：彭博、永安源点资讯、万得 免责声明 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Developments - The potential for a US-Canada trade agreement may be reached next week, with Canada prepared to retaliate if negotiations fail [2] - EU trade officials indicate that negotiations with the US are progressing in the right direction [2] - The UK Prime Minister expresses confidence in reducing US tariffs in a short timeframe [2] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - The US ADP employment report for May shows an increase of 37,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000 [3] - The ISM non-manufacturing index for May drops to 49.9, indicating contraction for the first time in nearly a year, down from 51.6 [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 95.6%, with a 4.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Galaxy Futures suggests that the cooling US economy is boosting precious metals, which are expected to maintain a strong position in the short term [4] - The weak ADP data and ISM services PMI have diminished market confidence in the US economic outlook, leading to renewed expectations for Fed rate cuts [4] - Concerns over the US fiscal situation, highlighted by Trump's comments on the debt ceiling and the CBO's deficit projections, are providing support for precious metals [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to show a rebound trend, with significant performance in the consumer sector [4][6] - The overall market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6503.28 billion, with a PE ratio of 11.95 and a PB ratio of 1.24 [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index has a market capitalization of 2159.63 billion, with a PE ratio of 19.92 and a PB ratio of 2.10 [3] Industry Dynamics - The global first humanoid robot, the ZhiYuan Expedition A2, has received certifications from China, the EU, and the US, marking a significant milestone in the robotics industry [27][28] - The market for 3C digital lithium battery PACK equipment in China is expected to reach nearly 1.3 billion by 2027, driven by a projected 13.9% increase in total shipments of digital lithium batteries in 2024 [30][31] - Several city commercial banks have followed suit in lowering deposit rates, which is expected to reduce financial institutions' liability costs and stabilize net interest margins [32] Company Updates - Marubi Biotechnology Co., Ltd. announced a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per share, totaling 200.5 million yuan, based on a total share capital of 401 million shares [36][38] - Muyuan Foods has repurchased shares amounting to 2.1 billion yuan, with a total of 52.54 million shares repurchased, representing 0.96% of the total share capital [39][40] - Delong Technology plans to invest approximately 300 million yuan in a new lithium battery project, enhancing its competitiveness in the automotive parts market [41][42]

回顾5月市场，整体冲高回落为主，宏观冲击对市场的影响开始逐渐消退，政策资金仍在托底，市场风 险偏好与交易情绪回落。5月成交额相较4月继续回落，全月日均成交额回到了12，147亿元，上周周内 市场日均成交额约10，939亿元。风格上，整体成长优于价值，小盘跑赢大盘；行业上，环保、医药生 物、国防军工等表现靠前，汽车、电力设备、有色金属等表现靠后。 宏观展望：海外关税风险不确定性加大 市场展望：关注红利、机器人、贵金属、国防军工等 往后展望，6月市场或进入宏观事件真空期（除了可能的关税冲击之外）。在新一轮冲击来临之前，市 场基本面或难以显著改善，下行风险高于上行风险，因此短期内进行防御性配置或是更合适的选择。复 盘过去三年6-7月的市场，调整幅度普遍在7%左右，但今年的政策预期和流动性预期较往年更强，因此 本轮市场调整幅度也可能明显更窄。从6月宏观事件来看，不排除关税政策加码的可能性，因此在不考 虑去追现有热点（核电、新消费、无人驾驶、数字货币等）的情况下，自主可控与大盘防御值得重点关 注。 从更长期视角来看，海外关税政策具有较大的不确定性，更多关注国内7月政治局会议窗口期，可能会 决定下半年市场的走势。虽然短期 ...