美国4月零售销售对照小组 -0.2%，预期0.3%，前值由0.40%修正为0.5%。 ...

不过该行也提醒，这一预测并非高置信度，因其主要基于季节性因子的预期差异，而非消费者支出的实 质性疲软。 过去一个月市场的剧烈波动是否影响了消费？为解答这一问题，美银经济学家研究了截至5月3日的四周 消费同比增速——这一时段涵盖了4月2日关税宣布后的大部分时期。如果股市动荡抑制了支出（或反弹 提振了支出），理论上高收入群体的消费变化会更明显。然而数据显示，三个收入分位组的消费增长基 本一致。事实上，收入前1%人群的消费增速在截至5月3日的四周内最为强劲，几乎与市场反弹同步飙 升。 关于关税前置消费的假设又如何？如果消费者预期价格飙升（密歇根大学调查显示民主党人尤其如 此），他们理应抓紧囤货。对此，美银同样通过截至5月3日的四周同比消费增速分析发现，在线电子产 品和日用百货的支出自关税宣布后加速最为显著。中高收入群体及前5%人群似乎比低收入群体和前1% 人群更积极地提前购买了电子产品。 正如美国银行经济学家团队所警告的，尽管电子产品消费出现前置现象，但4月整体支出仍将"疲软"。 根据该行计算，4月美银汇总的信用卡和借记卡数据显示，家庭总消费同比增长1.0%，但经季节性调整 后环比持平。其中，航空、服装和家居装修等 ...

Group 1 - The easing of tensions in the US-China trade war has led to a significant rebound in global risk assets, with US stock markets experiencing substantial gains [3][5][6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged approximately 1000 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rose over 3.5% and 2.7% respectively [1][6] - Market optimism is driven by hopes for a broader agreement between the two largest economies, resulting in a decline in gold and safe-haven currencies [3][5] Group 2 - The reduction of tariffs between the US and China exceeded expectations, with a framework for ongoing dialogue established, which is positively viewed by the stock market [5][7] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet announced that both countries agreed to lower "reciprocal" tariffs by 115% within 90 days, reducing US tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods to 10% [7] - UBS expects that the uncertainty surrounding trade has peaked, predicting that by the end of the year, the actual tariff levels in the US will gradually decrease to around 15% [8] Group 3 - Major technology stocks saw significant increases, with Apple rising nearly 6% as it considers raising prices for its upcoming iPhone series while avoiding attributing the price hike to US tariffs [8][9] - Individual stock performances included Micron Technology up 8.57%, Amazon up 7.54%, and Tesla up 6.79%, reflecting a strong rally in the tech sector [9] - The Chinese stock index also rose over 4%, and the Chinese yuan appreciated by 400 points, indicating a positive market response in China as well [9]

美联储理事库格勒：零售销售显示出一些提前消费的迹象，未来消费者支出可能会出现一定程度的回 调。 ...

欧元区3月零售销售同比 1.5%，预期 1.6%，前值 2.3%。 ...

意大利3月零售销售环比 -0.5%，预期 0.2%，前值 0.1%。 ...

日本3月零售销售环比 -1.2%，预期 -0.7%，前值 0.5%。 ...

美国3月零售销售(除汽车)环比 0.5%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of key economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence, and inflation metrics, which are crucial for understanding the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities [5][6][11]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to be released this week includes the March preliminary PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, as well as various consumer confidence indices and housing data [2][3][4][12][13]. Group 2: Recent Economic Data and Events Review - In the US, the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate, aligning with market expectations, and slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction [5][10]. - February retail sales in the US were below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.6% [5][10]. - Industrial production in the US exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [5][10]. - The US housing market showed resilience with February's existing home sales at an annualized rate of 4.26 million units, surpassing the expected 3.95 million [5][10]. - Eurozone's February CPI was slightly below expectations at 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI remained stable at 2.6% [6][11]. - Japan's CPI for February was higher than expected at 3.7% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [6][11]. Group 3: High-Frequency Data Review - The US economic activity index showed a slight decline, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week of March 15, down from 2.59% the previous week [5][13]. - In Germany, the economic activity index improved, with the WAI index rising to 0.3% [5][13]. - Retail sales in the US showed a minor year-on-year decline, with the Redbook retail sales index at 5.2% [7][16]. - Global flight numbers decreased by 3.1% compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in travel demand [7][19]. - The US mortgage rate remained stable at 6.67%, with a slight decline in mortgage application indices [7][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - Initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations at 223,000, indicating stable employment conditions [7][24]. - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1% [7][27]. - US gasoline prices remained stable at $2.94 per gallon, reflecting minimal fluctuations in fuel costs [7][27]. Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with indices rising to 0.301 and 1.381 respectively [7][29][31]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed signs of easing, with slight narrowing in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][32]. - Long-term bond yield spreads indicated a narrowing between US and Japanese bonds, while spreads between US and Eurozone bonds widened [7][35].