Core Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index for August is reported at 50.3%, indicating a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, and remains above the critical point, suggesting continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1] Industry Summary - The non-manufacturing sector continues to show signs of growth, as evidenced by the increase in the business activity index, which is a positive indicator for economic activity [1]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from last month, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index remains in expansion at 50.5%, with manufacturing production activities continuing to grow [1] Group 2 - The main raw materials purchasing price index and the factory price index are at 51.5% and 48.3%, respectively, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points from last month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing market price levels [1] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion and strong resilience against shocks, driven by robust market demand and policy support [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI is at 50.3%, showing that high-end equipment manufacturing is also maintaining expansion [1] Group 3 - Large enterprises show a good production and operational status, with production index and new orders index at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, both remaining in the expansion zone for three consecutive months [2] - The production and business activity expectation index for July is at 52.6%, up by 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also remains in expansion, with the business activity expectation index rising by 0.6 percentage points from last month, reflecting optimism among service industry enterprises [2]

Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, yet remaining above the critical point [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations due to extreme weather, production activities maintained expansion, indicating a solid foundation for economic recovery [3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, while the production index was at 50.5%, still in the expansion zone for three consecutive months [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion in high-end equipment manufacturing [1] - The consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points, while the high-energy-consuming industries PMI improved slightly to 48%, up 0.2 percentage points [1] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was at 48.3%, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials in sectors like petroleum and coal processing, as well as black metal smelting, showed significant recovery [2] Business Activity by Company Size - In July, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, with production and new orders indices at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating sustained good operational conditions [2] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, showing continued improvement in business sentiment [2] - The PMI for small enterprises was 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points, reflecting weaker business conditions [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, with construction activity slowing due to adverse weather conditions [4] - The business activity index for the service sector was 50%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, while sectors related to travel and consumption showed strong performance with indices above 60% [4] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintained stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating positive outlooks for the second half of the year [4]

Group 1 - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index and new orders index were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, with declines of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production but a slowdown in market demand [1][2] Group 2 - Extreme weather conditions in July, including heatwaves and floods, hindered outdoor construction and daily life, impacting market demand [2] - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was 48.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an improvement in overall market price levels [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, while the consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index was 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still within the expansion range, indicating overall stability [3] - The summer holiday effect positively impacted sectors related to consumer travel and spending, with indices for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [3]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decline in China's manufacturing PMI in July, the overall economic output remains in the expansion zone, supported by non-manufacturing indices above 50% [1][2]. Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first decline in four months [1][2]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both still indicating expansion despite slight declines [1]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, including the traditional off-peak season during the flood season and high temperatures [1][2]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - In July, the new orders index for manufacturing fell into the contraction zone, primarily due to short-term factors such as extreme weather conditions [3]. - The new export orders index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, reflecting weakened overall demand due to various factors including previous over-exporting and tariff uncertainties [3]. - Despite weak demand, the production index remains in the expansion zone, indicating resilience in manufacturing activity [3]. Price Trends - The purchasing price index and the factory price index increased to 51.5% and 48.3%, respectively, with the purchasing price index rising above the critical point for the first time since March [3]. - The recent "anti-involution" policies are believed to have positively influenced price recovery, although they may cause temporary production slowdowns [4]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI, while showing a decline, remain in the expansion zone, indicating ongoing structural optimization and high-quality development [4]. - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises saw a decline to 46.4% [5]. Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises despite overall PMI weakness [5]. - The "anti-involution" actions are expected to positively impact business expectations, although the sustainability of these effects depends on demand recovery [5]. Economic Outlook - The central government emphasizes the need for stable and flexible policies to support economic growth, aiming for a 5.0% growth target for the year [6].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July showed a short-term fluctuation, dropping to 49.3%, while the overall economic output remains in an expansion phase, supported by non-manufacturing indices above 50% [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, and the new export orders index was 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points [1]. - Despite weak market demand, the production index was at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion for the third consecutive month [1]. Key Industries - The equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 1.1 percentage points but still in the expansion zone; high-tech manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, maintaining expansion for six months [2]. - Large enterprises showed stable expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [2]. Price Indices - The raw material purchase price index for manufacturing was 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone after four months below 50% [2]. - The factory price index was 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [2]. Market Expectations - The manufacturing production and operation activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, with the service sector at 50% and construction at 50.6%, both remaining in the expansion zone [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index was 55.8%, reflecting optimism among most non-manufacturing enterprises [3]. Future Outlook - It is anticipated that construction activities will rebound as the rainy season ends, supported by policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [4].

Group 1 - The non-manufacturing business activity index for July is 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in the sector [9] - The comprehensive PMI output index for July is 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, yet remains above the critical point, suggesting that overall production and business activities in China are maintaining expansion [4] - The manufacturing PMI for July has slightly decreased to 49.3%, remaining below the critical point, indicating ongoing economic downward pressure [7] Group 2 - The new orders index in the manufacturing PMI has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, entering the contraction zone, reflecting a potential weakening in market demand [8] - The production index stands at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating mixed signals in manufacturing activity [7] - The construction activity index for July is 50.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, influenced by adverse weather conditions affecting construction activities [9] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the decline in manufacturing PMI is primarily due to weakened external demand and a slowdown in domestic consumption growth, particularly in the real estate market [8][10] - The prices of major raw materials have shown improvement, with the purchasing price index rising to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [8] - The overall economic outlook indicates a need for increased macroeconomic policy adjustments to counteract the downward pressure observed in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [10][11]

一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 7月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.3%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业 PMI为46.4%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临 界点。 生产指数为50.5%，比上月下降0.5个百分点，仍高于临界点，表明制造业生产延续扩张。 新订单指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所放缓。 投入品价格指数为50.3%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，表明非制造业企业用于经营活动的投入品价格总体水平有所上涨。分行业看，建筑业投入品价格指数 为54.5%，比上月上升6.2个百分点；服务业投入品价格指数为49.6%，比上月下降0.6个百分点。 销售价格指数为47.9%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，表明非制造业销售价格总体水平较上月下降。分行业看，建筑业 ...

国家统计局赵庆河：受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响 制造业景 气水平较上月回落 金十数据7月31日讯，国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读2025年7月中国采购经理指数， 7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，PMI降至49.3%，上月 下降0.4个百分点制造业景气水平较上月回落。7月份，非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别 为50.1%和50.2%，比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点，均持续高于临界点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 ...

Core Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index for July is reported at 50.1%, indicating a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, yet remains above the critical threshold [1] Group 1 - The non-manufacturing sector shows a slight decline in business activity, reflecting potential challenges in the industry [1] - The index value of 50.1% suggests that the sector is still expanding, as it is above the neutral level of 50% [1]