Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the stock market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with an overall upward - trending oscillation. The three major indices all closed higher on the monthly line. The ChiNext Index rose by over 12% this month, reaching a new high in more than three years, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose by over 11%, hitting a new high in nearly four years. The domestic stock index futures market also oscillated upward as a whole. The market risk preference significantly recovered, and small - and medium - cap varieties outperformed the weighted contracts [5][25]. - From a macro perspective, the manufacturing PMI data in September continued to rise, indicating continuous improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non - manufacturing business activity index was at the critical point, and the comprehensive PMI output index continued to be above the critical point, showing that the overall expansion of China's enterprise production and business activities continued to accelerate [7][9][12]. - Looking forward to the future, the continuous improvement of the economic fundamentals provides strong support for the market. The continuous rise in manufacturing prosperity has enhanced investors' confidence. It is recommended to maintain a neutral position and focus on the expected policy orientation. The market is expected to still show structural characteristics, but technical adjustment pressure should be vigilant [26]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: In September, the domestic stock index futures market oscillated upward. The IC showed strong performance. The monthly price increases of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 2.56% (115.4), 0.35% (10.4), 4.40% (307.0), and 0.71% (52.4) respectively [5]. - **Bond Futures**: In September, the 10 - year and 5 - year treasury bond futures rose, while the 30 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell. The monthly price changes of the main contracts of 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures were - 2.28% (- 2.66), 0.02% (0.025), 0.11% (0.115), and - 0.05% (- 0.048) respectively [6]. b. Fundamental Analysis - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level continued to improve. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business volume was generally stable. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of China's enterprise production and business activities continued to accelerate [7][9][12]. c. Valuation Analysis - As of September 30, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 14.22 times, the percentile was 87.65%, and the PB was 1.48 times. The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.75 times, the percentile was 88.63%, and the PB was 1.28 times. The PE of the CSI 500 Index was 35.23 times, the percentile was 84.31%, and the PB was 2.34 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 47.98 times, the percentile was 76.27%, and the PB was 2.54 times [13]. - As of September 30, the dividend yield of the Shanghai Composite Index was 2.48%, corresponding to a price - earnings ratio of 16.6 times; the dividend yield of the Hang Seng Index was 2.24%, corresponding to a price - earnings ratio of 12.3 times; the dividend yield of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index was only 0.56%, corresponding to a price - earnings ratio of 32 times; the dividend yield of the Nasdaq Index was 0.3%, corresponding to a price - earnings ratio of 44 times [26]. d. Other Data - As of September 30, 2025, the quantile of the current "total market value/GDP" in historical data was 88.27%, and the quantile in the latest 10 - year data was 88.47% - 92.26% [24]. e. Comprehensive Analysis - The stock index futures market showed an upward - trending oscillation pattern in September, with small - and medium - cap varieties outperforming the weighted contracts, and the market risk preference significantly recovered. The improvement in manufacturing prosperity, especially in key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods, provided fundamental support for the stock index, especially small - and medium - cap varieties. The improvement in the business climate of small enterprises also enhanced market confidence in the quality of economic recovery. The non - manufacturing business activity index was at the critical point, which was in line with the current market's structural market [25]. f. Operation Suggestions - **Unilateral**: Buy on dips, but beware of valuation risks. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to cross - variety spread opportunities and note style - switching signals. - **Options**: Use covered call writing to increase returns or buy put options to hedge against volatility risks [27]

Economic Overview - In September, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of increase [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stability in the non-manufacturing sector [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the production index at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion zone for five consecutive months [1] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stabilization in market demand [1] - The new export orders index was 47.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a narrowing decline in export demand [1] New Growth Drivers - In September, the PMIs for equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods were 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all significantly above the manufacturing average [2] - Large enterprises showed stable growth with a PMI of 51.0%, while small enterprises improved slightly with a PMI of 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index was 54.1%, indicating positive market expectations among manufacturers [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50%, despite a slight decrease from the previous month [3] - The service sector PMI was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, reflecting seasonal trends and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [3][4] - Financial services showed strong performance with a business activity index above 60%, indicating robust support for the real economy [4] Future Outlook - The third quarter average manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, indicating a consolidation of economic recovery compared to the second quarter and the same period last year [3] - Expectations for the fourth quarter include increased macroeconomic policies to boost market confidence and demand, driven by holiday consumption and infrastructure projects [3][4] - The non-manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by seasonal effects and ongoing macroeconomic adjustments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from August, marking two consecutive months of recovery, while the non-manufacturing business activity index remains stable at 50% [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown a slight increase, reflecting the effectiveness of various growth-stabilizing policies [2] - Among the 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, and procurement volume index have risen, while order-related indices remain below the threshold, indicating persistent demand challenges [2][3] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors show rising purchasing price indices above 50%, suggesting increased raw material costs, while the basic raw materials sector faces pressure due to weak real estate investment [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50%, indicating stability, with the financial sector's index exceeding 60%, providing a favorable environment for economic recovery [4][5] - New momentum industries, such as telecommunications and internet services, are performing well, with significant increases in business activity indices [5] - The construction sector remains weak, with indices below 50%, highlighting the need for improved project execution and funding [5] Economic Outlook - The third quarter saw a slight improvement in manufacturing PMI, averaging 49.5%, indicating a consolidation of economic recovery compared to previous quarters [6] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stability, with an average business activity index of 50.1% for the third quarter [6] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, macroeconomic policies are expected to strengthen, with anticipated boosts in consumer demand and infrastructure projects driving economic activity [6][7] - Manufacturing firms exhibit increased optimism for the fourth quarter, with the production activity expectation index rising to 54.1% [7]

Group 1 - The manufacturing sector's economic sentiment is influenced by ongoing reforms [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for September stands at 50.0%, indicating a critical point [4] - The comprehensive PMI output index for September is at 50.6%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating expansion; medium-sized enterprises have a PMI of 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small enterprises have a PMI of 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points, but still below the critical point [4] - The production index is at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating accelerated production expansion; the new orders index is at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting improved market demand [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The non-manufacturing business activity index for September is 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating overall stability in non-manufacturing business volume [7] - The construction business activity index is at 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points; the service industry index is at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, with certain sectors like postal and financial services showing strong performance [9] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing is at 46.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand; the input prices index is at 49.0%, down 1.3 percentage points, suggesting a decrease in input costs [14] Group 3: Employment and Expectations - The employment index for manufacturing is at 48.5%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating improved hiring sentiment in manufacturing [5] - The employment index for non-manufacturing is at 45.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in hiring sentiment; the construction sector's employment index is particularly low at 39.7% [15] - The business activity expectations index for non-manufacturing is at 55.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, but still indicates optimism among most non-manufacturing enterprises [15] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The comprehensive PMI output index for September is 50.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in production and business activities across sectors [15]

Group 1 - The manufacturing sector's economic climate is undergoing significant reforms [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for September stands at 50.0%, indicating a critical threshold [4]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September is reported at 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from August, marking two consecutive months of recovery [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50%, reflecting stable overall operations [1][4] - The composite PMI output index continues to show expansion, suggesting positive effects from growth stabilization policies [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production index, new orders index, and several other indices have shown increases, indicating a recovery in production and procurement activities [2] - However, order indices remain below the threshold, highlighting persistent challenges in market demand [2][3] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors show rising purchasing price indices, while the basic raw materials sector faces pressure due to weak demand and price declines [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remains stable at 50%, with the financial services index exceeding 60%, indicating a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [4][5] - New momentum industries, such as telecommunications and internet services, continue to perform well, contributing to economic vitality [4] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, driven by increased macro policies, holiday consumption, and optimistic business expectations [1][6] - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to see sustained growth in production activities, supported by favorable market prices and completion of annual business targets [6][7] - The construction and service sectors are expected to experience a rebound in activity due to year-end effects and holiday demand [7]

Group 1 - The manufacturing sector's prosperity level continued to improve in September, indicating a positive trend in production activities [1] - The non-manufacturing business volume remained generally stable, reflecting resilience in the service sector [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index was sustained above the critical point, suggesting an overall acceleration in business operations across enterprises [1] Group 2 - The comprehensive PMI output index for September was reported at 50.6%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 49.8% in September, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 50.0%, reflecting a slight slowdown in non-manufacturing activities [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index increased to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for five months [4] - The purchasing volume index rose to 51.6%, indicating improved procurement activities [4] - New orders index reached 49.7%, showing a stabilization in market demand [4] - The export new orders index improved to 47.8%, suggesting a narrowing decline in export demand [4] - The manufacturing purchase price index was 53.2%, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating mixed price trends across sectors [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with the construction index at 49.3% and the services index at 50.1% [8] - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing remained above 55%, indicating stable optimism among enterprises [8] - The postal industry showed significant growth, with indices above 60%, reflecting active online shopping [8][9] Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector is expected to see continued growth in Q4, driven by macro policies and seasonal demand [5] - Non-manufacturing activities are anticipated to stabilize and recover, supported by year-end effects and holiday demand [10]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Manufacturing Sector - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be strengthened and implemented, with the manufacturing PMI showing a slight recovery to 49.8% in September, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing policy effects [1] - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for five months, while the new orders index increased to 49.7%, suggesting a stabilization in market demand [4] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a seasonal peak in production and sales, with procurement activities and employment showing positive trends [4] Group 2: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The purchasing price index for manufacturing decreased to 53.2%, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating a mixed price trend across different industries [5] - There is an expectation of improved market conditions in the fourth quarter, driven by holiday demand and infrastructure projects, which will likely boost consumption and production activities [5] - The manufacturing production expectation index rose to 54.1%, reflecting increased optimism among manufacturers regarding market developments [6] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with slight declines in the service sector and construction industry, indicating a mild slowdown [9] - The postal industry showed significant growth, with business activity and new orders indices rising over 5 percentage points, reflecting strong online shopping trends [9][10] - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize and recover in the fourth quarter, supported by seasonal effects and ongoing macroeconomic policies [10]