Market Overview - The US stock market opened lower on November 18, with the Dow Jones down 1.01%, Nasdaq down 1.26%, and S&P 500 down 0.85% [1] - The technology sector saw a significant decline, with major semiconductor stocks like Micron Technology dropping over 5% and TSMC down over 2% [3] Technology Sector Performance - The "Magnificent Seven" index of major tech stocks fell nearly 2%, with Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, and Facebook all declining over 2% [3] - Specific stock performances included Apple down 0.15%, Amazon down 2.41%, and Nvidia down 2.55% [4] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks also faced declines, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.15%. Notable drops included JinkoSolar down over 7% and Daqo New Energy down over 6% [4][5] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant losses, with Bitcoin dropping below $90,000 and Ethereum down over 2%. Over the past 24 hours, more than 170,000 traders were liquidated, totaling $800 million [5][6] Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - Recent weakness in the US stock market, particularly in tech stocks, is attributed to investor concerns over high valuations of AI stocks, tightening liquidity, and delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in December has fallen to 48.6% [6][7] - Analysts warn of extreme overvaluation in many asset prices, suggesting that investors should allocate about 20% of their portfolios to cash to mitigate risks of significant market corrections [7] Upcoming Events - Nvidia is set to release its third-quarter earnings report after the market closes on November 19, which could influence market sentiment depending on the results [7]

A global outage across Cloudflare's internet services led to a number of crypto front ends facing downtime on Tuesday. Toncoin is suffering a "major outage" alongside Abritrum block explorer Arbiscan, with several other sites including social media platform X and data platform DefiLlama flashing intermittent "internal server errors." "Cloudflare is aware of, and investigating an issue which impacts multiple customers: Widespread 500 errors, Cloudflare Dashboard and API also failing," the company wrote at ...

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has not responded positively to recent institutional interest and regulatory clarity, leading to a disconnect between potential and actual market performance [3][8] - The market's current valuation of cryptocurrencies, particularly altcoins, appears to be based on speculative trading rather than sustainable economic value [15][23] Market Dynamics - Despite significant developments such as the launch of ETFs and increased institutional participation, the market has not seen corresponding price increases, indicating that positive news may already be priced in [3][6] - The total market capitalization of altcoins is approximately $1.5 trillion, but their underlying narratives are considered weaker compared to Bitcoin, which has a market cap of about $1.9 trillion [4][5] Valuation Concerns - Ethereum's market cap is around $400 billion, with annual revenue from fees and MEV estimated at $1-2 billion, leading to a price-to-sales ratio of 200-400 times, which is deemed unsustainable [13][14] - Solana, with a market cap of approximately $75-80 billion, generates over $1 billion in annual revenue, resulting in a more reasonable price-to-sales ratio of 20-60 times [13][14] Revenue Sustainability - The income generated by major Layer 1 blockchains is characterized as highly cyclical and speculative, akin to casino revenues, rather than stable, predictable cash flows [10][14] - The industry must transition from speculative trading to generating real, recurring economic value to justify current valuations [15][23] Future Outlook - The cryptocurrency sector is still in its early stages, but there is a pressing need to focus on real user adoption and sustainable business models rather than speculative trading [17][21] - The next decade may see significant opportunities in integrating cryptocurrency technology into established businesses, provided it can demonstrate cost efficiency and improved functionality [20][22]

比特币正经历自由落体式下跌，交易员正在为更大规模的跌势做准备。 周二，比特币一度跌破9万美元，创七个月新低。 过去六周内，加密货币总市值暴跌超过1.2万亿美元。 期权市场数据显示，交易员对9万美元、8.5万美元和8万美元等下行点位的保护性需求大幅飙升，押注11月底到期的看跌合约规模已超过7.4亿美元。 专注去中心化金融的Ergonia研究总监Chris Newhouse表示： 随着过去六个月累积头寸的买家发现自己已经严重套牢，基于信念的多头需求正变得越来越疲软。 数据分析平台CoinMarketCap编制的情绪指数显示加密货币参与者陷入"极度恐慌"状态。市场上挤满了投资者，他们亏损太深，无法继续买入，但又不愿止 损。 以太坊非常容易受到这种趋势的影响，因为目前最大的数字资产财库公司都处于亏损状态。 世界第二大加密货币以太币跌至2975美元，自10月初以来跌幅达24%，表现尤为疲弱。 宏观因素施压风险资产 更广泛的经济力量也在拖累市场情绪。美联储政策预期和人工智能泡沫讨论成为年底前加密货币和风险资产面临的两大阻力。 研究机构Kaiko的分析师Adam McCarthy表示： 我认为美联储和AI泡沫讨论是年底前加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Bitcoin sell-off is impacting global risk appetite, leading to a broader market sell-off and potentially triggering forced liquidations by leveraged investors, creating a negative feedback loop of "decline-sell-off-further decline" [1][5]. Group 1: Market Impact - Bitcoin has fallen below the $90,000 mark, reaching a seven-month low, which has intensified a comprehensive market sell-off [2]. - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index dropped over 2%, marking its largest decline in a month, with nearly all Asian markets experiencing downturns as investors flocked to government bonds for safety [2][4]. - The sell-off in cryptocurrencies is spilling over into traditional assets, with analysts warning of a self-reinforcing downward mechanism taking shape [5][7]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The decline in Bitcoin has shaken investor expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, shifting focus to upcoming earnings reports, particularly from Nvidia [4]. - Analysts express concerns that the ongoing cryptocurrency sell-off could trigger forced selling among retail investors, who may need to liquidate other assets to meet margin requirements, potentially leading to a feedback loop across markets [7]. - Market sentiment is deteriorating, with Bitcoin acting as an indicator of bearish panic levels, as traders react to earnings and macroeconomic data releases [8].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both dropping over 6%, leading to a total market capitalization loss exceeding $1 trillion since October 7. Analysts suggest that the bearish trend may continue as traders are increasingly pessimistic in the options market [1][10][12]. Cryptocurrency Market Performance - Bitcoin fell to approximately $89,501.3, erasing all gains made in 2023, while Ethereum dropped to $2,986.19. Other cryptocurrencies like XRP, Solana, and Cardano also saw declines, with XRP down nearly 6% and Solana over 4% [4][5]. - In the last 24 hours, the total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached $10.15 billion, affecting 183,500 traders, with long positions accounting for $7.24 billion of the liquidations [6][8]. Market Sentiment and External Factors - The market sentiment has turned negative as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have diminished, leading to a broader sell-off in risk assets. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is now at 42.9%, with a 57.1% chance of maintaining current rates [8][12]. - Analysts indicate that the recent sell-off is a result of profit-taking by long-term holders, outflows of institutional funds, macroeconomic uncertainties, and the liquidation of leveraged long positions [10][13]. Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a growing concern that the cryptocurrency sell-off could force retail investors to liquidate other assets to meet margin calls, potentially creating a feedback loop of selling across different markets [1][10][13]. - The options market shows a significant increase in protective bets against further declines, with traders focusing on downside levels of $90,000, $85,000, and $80,000, indicating a bearish outlook [12][13].

Bullish是一家由亿万富翁科技投资者彼得・蒂尔支持的加密货币交易所，计划于11月19日发布第三季度 财报。该交易所第二季度调整后营收为5700万美元，较去年同期的6700万美元有所下滑；净利润为 1.083亿美元，而去年同期净亏损1.164亿美元。 方舟投资今年一直在积极调整其加密货币相关持仓。上周四，该公司就曾买入728万美元的Bullish股 份，同时还购入了1556万美元的Circle股票和886万美元的BitMine股票。 根据方舟投资周一的交易报告，方舟创新ETF（ARKK）买入191,195股Bullish股票，方舟下一代互联网 ETF（ARKW）购入56,660股，方舟金融科技创新ETF（ARKF）也增持了29,208股Bullish股份。 此次方舟投资增持之际，Bullish股票在纽约证券交易所走低，周一收盘下跌4.5%，报36.75美元。 来源：环球市场播报 "木头姐"凯西・伍德旗下的方舟投资（Ark Invest）周一通过三只ETF斥资1020万美元买入加密货币交易 所Bullish的股份，持续扩大在加密货币相关领域的持仓敞口。 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin price has dropped below $90,000 for the first time since April, marking a nearly 30% decline from its all-time high of $126,272 reached on October 7, 2023, and has erased all gains for the year [1] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has decreased from $4.38 trillion to $3.28 trillion within a week, indicating a surge in market panic as the Fear and Greed Index fell to 11, the lowest since the 2022 bear market [1] - The market has experienced significant volatility, with major cryptocurrency exchanges facing operational issues during this period, leading to Binance announcing a compensation of approximately $300 million to affected users [1] Market Dynamics - The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has plummeted from 95% to 44.4%, tightening liquidity in the banking system and increasing financing costs, which has triggered a sell-off in risk assets [2] - The narrative of support for cryptocurrencies from the Trump administration is losing traction, and increasing global regulatory scrutiny is challenging the perception of "absolute safety" in crypto assets [2] - Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-day moving average, forming a "death cross," and has breached the critical support level of $93,700, triggering algorithmic trading and liquidation of leveraged positions, resulting in over $800 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours [2] Investor Sentiment - Options traders are predominantly betting on further declines in Bitcoin, with a significant demand for put options at strike prices of $85,000 and $80,000 [2] - Despite the current extreme pessimism in the market, some analysts suggest that this correction aligns with typical mid-cycle adjustments in Bitcoin bull markets, with historical average pullbacks around 22% [2] - The structure of institutional holdings has not fundamentally collapsed, and if the Federal Reserve shifts towards a more accommodative policy and ETF fund flows stabilize, the market may find a technical bottom in the $86,000 to $88,000 range [2]

来源：江南都市报 11月18日，比特币价格七个月来首次跌破9万美元关口。 持续一个月的下跌态势已抹去该加密货币2025年的所有涨幅。 此次逆转行情出现之际，正值经济逆风加剧，包括市场对利率政策再度产生担忧，以及投机市场估值过高。期权交易员押注比特币将进一步下跌，近期对 8.5万美元和8万美元行权价的看跌期权保护需求占据主导。 ...

11月18日，比特币盘中一度跌破9万美元，持续一个月的下跌态势已抹去该加密货币2025年的所有涨幅。 | # = | 名称: | 价格: 涨跌(24H): | 涨跌(7日): | 0 市值: | 6 成交量(24H): | 0 交易份额: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 (6) | 比特币 | $90.722.9 -4.99% | -15.42% | $1.80T | $101.35B | 45.34% | | BTC | | | | | | | | 2 @ | 以太坊 | $3,014.33 -5.07% | -17.94% | $359.21B | $43.61B | 20.60% | | ETH | | | | | | | | 3 4 4 交通 1 | | $1.0024 +0.09% | -0.05% | $183.89B | $163.84B | 78.17% | | USDT | | | | | | | | A ARP | XRP | $2.1487 -4.80% | -16.61% | $127.65B | $6.38B | 3 ...