Group 1 - The U.S. government is heading towards a shutdown due to disagreements between Democrats and Republicans over funding issues, particularly regarding healthcare subsidies and tax cuts [1][2] - Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer stated that significant differences remain between the parties, and the President could avoid a shutdown by accepting some Democratic demands [1][2] - Senate Republican leader John Thune criticized the Democrats for refusing to approve a short-term spending bill, equating it to "taking hostages" [1][2] Group 2 - The potential government shutdown could delay the release of key economic indicators, including the monthly non-farm payroll report, and result in federal employees being furloughed or working without pay [2][3] - The Labor Department announced that it would not release economic data during a potential shutdown, leading to a decline in U.S. stock market gains [3] - If a shutdown occurs, it would be the first since the 2018-2019 period, which lasted five weeks [4] Group 3 - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries indicated that Democrats would not accept promises of future cooperation on healthcare policy in exchange for support of a short-term spending bill [7] - Democrats are advocating for a $350 billion extension of tax credits under the Affordable Care Act for middle-class families to prevent premium increases [7] - The Democratic agenda includes reversing cuts to medical research and blocking the White House from rescinding previously allocated funds [7]

Market Review - Spot gold prices have surpassed $3840 per ounce, reaching a new high [6] - On September 29, US major stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.15% at 46316.07 points, S&P 500 up 0.26% at 6661.21 points, and Nasdaq up 0.48% at 22591.15 points [6] - European stock indices also saw minor increases, with Germany's DAX up 0.02% at 23745.06 points, France's CAC40 up 0.13% at 7880.87 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.16% at 9299.84 points [6] International Macro - US President Trump met with congressional leaders on September 29 to discuss avoiding a government shutdown, with significant disagreements noted by Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer [7] - The US federal government is set to run out of funding by midnight on September 30, risking a government shutdown if no agreement is reached on funding legislation [7] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced that it will halt data collection and not release planned reports, including the monthly non-farm payroll report, if funding is interrupted [7] Corporate News - On September 29, DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp model was officially released and open-sourced on the Hugging Face platform, introducing a sparse attention mechanism for improved efficiency in training and inference of long texts [8] - OpenAI plans to release the new Sora 2 video generator as a standalone application, which may generate videos containing copyrighted content unless rights holders opt out [8] Institutional Views - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that global stock markets are likely to continue rising until the end of the year, supported by strong US economic performance and favorable stock valuations [9] - The team led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann has upgraded the global stock market allocation rating to "overweight" for the next three months, suggesting that stocks typically perform well in the later stages of economic slowdown with strong policy support [9]

抛售高达1.6万亿美元的美债，美联储站上风口浪尖；政府即将关门，80万人或将停薪，国会迟迟无法 达成协议；特朗普亲自出马，准备与四大领袖摊牌。 白宫下令联邦机构起草大规模裁员计划，一场制度与市场的双重崩塌悄然逼近。 拨款僵局中的停摆装置 国会拨款案在 2025 年 9 月中旬进入紧张对峙期。 参议院否决一项短期拨款延续法案，令联邦政府运营面临断裂边缘。财政资金将在 9 月 30 日午夜枯 竭。立法与行政之间的裂痕迅速暴露。 国会两党纷纷将责任归咎对方。共和党议员强调必须先通过短期法案以防止政府关闭；民主党阻击，仅 愿在法案中加入医疗补贴与社会项目条款。参议院多数票标准高企，使得短暂方案难以通过。 白宫预算办公室发出内部通告，要求联邦各部门启动拨款中断应对方案。多部门被指向编制"裁员或人 员缩减"预案，以应付可能的运营中断。这在过去几次停摆中少见。政府机构内部紧急动员，清点优先 任务、暂停新项目、压缩支出。 航空、交通、司法、科研、公共卫生、社保、政府补助等多个功能区进入预警状态。部分联邦合同将被 暂缓履行。机场、交通枢纽等涉及联邦资助的基础设施部门暗中评估人员短缺风险。若停摆发生，最先 被感知将可能是这些公共 ...

Group 1: Market Indices - Major global stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 46,316.07, up by 68.78 points or 0.15% [1] - The Nasdaq increased by 107.08 points, reaching 22,591.15, a rise of 0.48% [1] - The S&P 500 rose by 17.51 points to 6,661.21, reflecting a 0.26% increase [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown - President Trump met with congressional leaders to discuss avoiding a government shutdown, with a funding deadline approaching [3] - Senate Democratic leader Schumer indicated significant divisions, stating that the decision on a shutdown depends on the Republican Party [3] - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau warned that a government shutdown would halt data collection and release, affecting upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI reports [4] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices reached a historic high of $3,824.5 per ounce, pushing the value of U.S. gold reserves to over $1 trillion for the first time [6] - The increase in gold prices, which have risen 45% this year, is driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [6] - Switzerland proposed a new gold refining plan to negotiate a reduction in U.S. import tariffs, with gold prices remaining stable at high levels [7] Group 4: Film Industry - President Trump announced a 100% tariff on films produced overseas, claiming that the U.S. film industry is being undermined by foreign competition [5] - This decision has caused turmoil in the film industry, with experts warning of increased production and ticket costs, potentially leading to retaliatory measures from other countries [5] Group 5: International Relations - A coalition of eight countries, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, expressed support for Trump's ceasefire plan in Gaza, emphasizing its significance for Palestinian statehood [8] - The plan aims to establish a temporary governance structure in Gaza and prevent further conflict [8] Group 6: Technology and AI - OpenAI announced a partnership with Etsy and Shopify to introduce a direct checkout feature for U.S. users, boosting stock prices for both companies [11] - Anthropic launched a new AI model, ClaudeSonnet4.5, claiming it to be the best coding model globally, with significant performance metrics [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Labor is preparing for a potential government shutdown, which would impact the release of key employment reports and other economic data [1] Group 1: Government Shutdown Implications - The Department of Labor is seeking to ensure orderly suspension of plans and operations in the event of a shutdown while continuing limited activities that are permitted [1] - If the government shuts down, the Department of Labor will not release the critical employment report expected this week, which is vital for understanding economic trends [1] - The federal government funding is set to expire at midnight on September 30, leading to a renewed risk of a government shutdown [1] Group 2: Political Negotiations - Bipartisan leaders in Congress expressed significant divisions after a meeting with Trump, indicating minimal progress in negotiations [1]

Market Overview - Alibaba shares rose by 4.6%, JD.com increased by 3.3%, Baidu by 2.7%, NetEase by 2.5%, and Pinduoduo by 0.6% [1][4] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by over 2% [4] - Nvidia shares rose by 2.0%, Amazon by 1.1%, and Tesla by 0.6%, while Meta, Oracle, Apple, and Google saw slight declines [3] - Electronic Arts (EA) shares surged by 4.5% following a $55 billion acquisition announcement, marking the largest leveraged buyout attempt in history with a 25% premium [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. housing market showed a surprising 4% increase in existing home sales in August, reversing a 0.3% decline in July, attributed to falling mortgage rates [6] - Oxford Economics indicated that as 30-year fixed mortgage rates approach 6%, the housing market is expected to stabilize and improve significantly [6] Commodity Prices - International gold prices reached a historic high, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery rising by 1.18% to $3,820.90 per ounce [5] - Crude oil prices fell significantly, with WTI crude dropping by 3.45% to $63.45 per barrel and Brent crude down by 3.08% to $67.97 per barrel, influenced by increased global oil supply [4]

Core Points - The Labor Department is preparing for a potential government shutdown, which would lead to a suspension of operations and a significant impact on economic data releases [1][2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will halt all operations, meaning scheduled economic data releases will not occur during the shutdown [2] - Key reports that may be affected include the monthly nonfarm payrolls report and the initial jobless claims report, both critical for assessing job growth trends [2] - The consumer price index, a vital inflation indicator, is scheduled for release on October 15, which is the last reading before the Federal Reserve's meeting on October 28-29 [3]

Core Point - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will suspend all operations and will not release economic data in the event of a government shutdown [1] Group 1 - The BLS is responsible for providing key economic data, which will be halted during a government shutdown [1]

Core Points - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown as funding is set to run out at midnight on September 30, with bipartisan negotiations ongoing to avert this crisis [2] - President Trump is scheduled to meet with key congressional leaders to discuss funding issues, highlighting the urgency of the situation as the deadline approaches [2] Group 1 - The meeting will include House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Republican Leader John Thune, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries [2] - Schumer urged Thune to facilitate the meeting with Trump due to the impending deadline for government funding [2] - The White House has instructed federal agencies to prepare layoff plans in anticipation of a possible government shutdown, indicating a serious approach to the situation [2]

Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 28 September 2025 | 8:01PM EDT Economics Research US Daily: Q&A on the Potential Government Shutdown (Phillips/Walker) Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Pe ...