Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a weak and volatile trend on the weekly chart, with a weekly decline of 1.94% and an amplitude of 6.13%. The closing price of the main contract was 61,800 yuan/ton [5]. - Macroscopically, the State Council emphasized strengthening the domestic cycle. Fundamentally, overseas lithium mines' price - holding sentiment weakened, and lithium ore transaction prices declined. The supply was excessive with high inventory due to insufficient production cuts by domestic smelters and arriving imported lithium carbonate. The demand was weak as downstream battery material processing enterprises had sufficient inventory and were cautious in purchasing [5]. - Overall, the lithium carbonate market remained in a situation of excessive supply with high - level industrial inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light position under a weak and volatile trend and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate main contract was weak and volatile on the weekly chart, with a closing price of 61,800 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.94%, and an amplitude of 6.13% [5]. - **Macro - situation**: The State Council emphasized strengthening the domestic cycle to promote stable economic development [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas lithium mines' price - holding sentiment weakened, lithium ore prices declined. Supply was excessive with high inventory, and demand was weak [5]. - **Strategy**: Trade with a light position under a weak and volatile trend and control risks [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of May 16, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 61,800 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,220 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 860 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 260 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Price**: As of May 16, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,500 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 2,700 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 470 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Upstream Market - **Lithium Concentrate**: As of May 16, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 753 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 22 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.2132, a weekly decline of 0.31% [19]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of May 16, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 1,811 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 83 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,340 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 110 yuan/ton [24]. 4. Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,125.49 tons, an increase of 5,797.53 tons (47.03%) from February, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.82%. The monthly output was 43,180 tons, an increase of 7,490 tons (20.99%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 14.78%. The monthly export volume was 220.031 tons, a decrease of 197.1 tons (47.25%) from February, and a year - on - year decrease of 31.68%. The monthly start - up rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [29]. 5. Downstream Situation - **Six - Fluorophosphate Lithium**: As of May 16, 2025, the average price was 55,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 5,000 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output was 156,900 tons, an increase of 22,870 tons (17.06%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 47.39% [32]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 31,500 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 17,500 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output of cathode materials was 178,600 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons (11.9%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 30.56%. The monthly start - up rate was 57%, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 2% [38]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of the latest data, the prices of type 811, 622, and 523 remained stable. As of March 2025, the monthly output was 54,050 tons, an increase of 9,130 tons (20.33%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 8.86%. The monthly start - up rate was 48%, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [41]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of the latest data, the average price was 29,000 yuan/ton, with no weekly change. As of March 2025, the monthly output was 9,670 tons, an increase of 870 tons (9.89%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 49.92% [45]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data, the average price was 220,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 5,000 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output was 7,170 tons, an increase of 880 tons (13.99%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 9.47% [48]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of April 2025, the penetration rate was 42.74%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58% and a year - on - year increase of 10.36%. The monthly output was 1,251,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%; the sales volume was 1,226,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%. The cumulative export volume was 642,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 52.49% [50][55]. 6. Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying was 0.26, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to go long on volatility by constructing a long straddle option [58].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 沪铜市场周报 供给小增需求放缓，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡略强，周线涨跌幅为+0.89%，振幅1.9%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价78140元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储正在考虑调整货币政策指导框架的核心内容，他指出，美国可能进 入供应冲击更频繁、通胀更不稳定的时期，长期利率可能会走高。国内方面，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国 务院总理李强在会上强调，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远， 努力实现高质量发展。基本面上，原料端铜进口TC现货指数不断下行，全球铜精矿供应偏紧趋势不变。国内铜矿港口库存 保持增长，国内冶炼厂短期内未受原料供给问题影响产量。供给方面，由于国内原料供应仍较充足，加之铜 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 铝类市场周报 供稳需增内外分化，铝类或将小幅提振 关 注 我 们 获 目录 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 期现市场」 本周沪铝期价略走强 图1、沪铝与伦铝期价 图2、沪伦比值 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 16000 17000 18000 19000 20000 21000 22000 美 元 / 吨 元 / 吨 电解铝期货价格 期货收盘价(活跃合约) :铝 期货收盘价(电子盘):LME3个月铝（右） 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 沪伦比值 沪伦比值 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+2.78%，报20130元/吨。氧化铝冲高回落，周涨跌+2.23%，报2890元/吨。 行情展望：国际方面，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储正在考虑调整 ...

聚焦制约经济循环的关键问题和薄弱环节，在促进经济持续向好中夯实做强国内大循环的基础。 面对外部风险冲击加大，做强国内大循环成为关键之举。 5月15日，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强在会上强调，要把发展 的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性，推动 我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 今年以来，高层多次强调做强国内大循环。多位专家对第一财经记者表示，当前国际环境复杂多变，稳定经济增 长需要更多地依靠内需市场来发力。打通消费、投资以及供需结构中的堵点和难点，畅通国民经济循环，已成为 激发内需市场活力、提升我国经济韧性的关键所在。 做强国内大循环 深挖消费潜力 他表示，结合现阶段我国发展实际，做强国内大循环重点要体现在四个方面。一是资源要素的高效配置，进一步 消除地方保护和市场分割，深化要素市场化配置改革，加快推进全国统一大市场建设。 二是科技创新和产业创新的深度融合，加强关键核心技术和前沿技术攻关，推进科技成果产业化应用，打造一批 新产业新赛道。 三是产业链供应链的自主完备，发挥各地优势加强专业化分工、地区间协作，持 ...

敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 16 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-16） | | | | 铁矿：关税降幅超预期，市场情绪明显提振，铁矿盘面大幅上涨。随着部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的改善，供应仍有增加的预期。铁矿港 | | | | | 口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核心关键，贸 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，美国进口商未来三个月将 | | | | | 迎来进口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，未来 90 天中美两国之间的贸易将 | | | | | 大幅增长，对近月形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套，激进的投 | | | | | 资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月合约反弹抛空机会。 | | | | | 煤焦：主产地煤矿基本维持正常生产，焦煤供需宽松格局不变。由于焦煤 | | | | | 价格的下移，焦化企业利润好转，目前多数焦企盈亏平衡状 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as macro - policies, trade negotiations, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors and products have different trends and investment strategies [12][13][14]. - For the Chinese stock market, Goldman Sachs has raised the 12 - month target points of the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, maintaining an "overweight" rating and favoring domestic - oriented industries [10]. - In the futures market, different futures products have different investment strategies based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - environment [12][13][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council held a work promotion meeting on strengthening the domestic cycle, emphasizing the importance of domestic cycle stability [9]. - China's top - level design for urban renewal has been introduced, accelerating urban renewal actions [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's stricter restrictions on Chinese chips and re - emphasized the review of port transactions [9]. - In April, the growth rate of national enterprise sales revenue accelerated, and the construction industry also showed growth [9]. - Goldman Sachs raised the target points of the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, maintaining an "overweight" rating on the Chinese stock market [10]. - After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, the bank wealth - management market adjusted, and the market may face "asset shortage" pressure [10]. - The Fed Chairman is considering adjusting the monetary policy framework, and the US may face more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation [10]. - The US and Iran are in nuclear - related negotiations, with Iran willing to promise not to produce nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief [11]. - US economic activity slowed down, inflation cooled, and the PPI, retail sales, and manufacturing output showed different trends [11]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US remained stable, while the number of continued claims increased [11]. 3.2 Futures Strategies 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Consider maintaining a long - term mindset and pay attention to style drift. The Q2 domestic economic fundamentals are expected to improve, and public - offering funds may adjust their portfolios [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Be cautious when steepening the yield curve due to tightened funds. Consider bearish operations in the bond market as the Q2 domestic economic fundamentals are expected to improve [13]. 3.2.3 Container Shipping to Europe - The focus is on whether the spot price will decline further and whether shipping companies will raise prices in June. The upward catalyst is emotional, while the downward pressure is fundamental [14]. 3.2.4 Cotton - Although the Sino - US tariff friction has eased, domestic cotton prices are still under pressure due to weak demand. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [15][16]. 3.2.5 Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating due to sufficient short - term supply and uncertain supply - demand gaps. Global sugar supply is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, which may restrict sugar prices [17][18]. 3.2.6 Oils and Oilseeds - For palm oil, the supply - demand situation is weak. For soybean meal, with the increase in US soybean planting progress and domestic oil - mill operating rates, soybean meal prices are expected to be weak [20][21]. 3.2.7 Eggs - In the short term, the decline in egg prices may slow down, but in the medium term, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, so a bearish operation on egg futures is recommended [21][22]. 3.2.8 Apples - Consider a light - position positive spread strategy. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in production areas [23]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Consider short - selling at high prices and focus on downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [23]. 3.2.10 Live Pigs - The spot market sentiment is weakening, and the main contract is increasing in positions and falling. A cautious and bearish operation is recommended [23][24]. 3.2.11 Crude Oil - The market is back to trading on weak fundamentals, and Trump's Middle - East visit may lead to increased supply. Oil prices are expected to decline in the medium - long term and fluctuate weakly in the short term [25]. 3.2.12 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil, with short - term rebounds stronger than crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as power generation demand in the Middle East and shipping weakness [26]. 3.2.13 Plastics - Be cautious about the callback risk of L and PP. Pay attention to the situation where spot prices do not follow up [27]. 3.2.14 Methanol - Be cautious about the callback risk. Although the market sentiment has improved, methanol's supply pressure is still large [28]. 3.2.15 Caustic Soda - In a weak fundamental and strong macro - environment, the SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [29]. 3.2.16 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash prices are stable in the short term but face a long - term oversupply situation. Glass prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak demand [31][32]. 3.2.17 Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to follow crude oil and approach 3400. Inventory data provides some support [32]. 3.2.18 Polyester Industry Chain - Consider short - term long - positions. Although cost decline is a major negative factor, prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [33]. 3.2.19 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - After the short - term impact of tariffs, LPG prices may rebound, but the space is limited [34][35]. 3.2.20 Pulp - The market is oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [36]. 3.2.21 Urea - There are differences in the market's view on urea exports. UR09 and UR01 contracts can be short - sold when prices rise [37]. 3.2.22 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and appropriate long - positions can be taken at low prices. Alumina prices may have limited rebound space, and short - positions can be considered after the spot stabilizes [38]. 3.2.23 Lithium Carbonate - The impact of tariffs on lithium carbonate is not significant. The price is expected to oscillate and rebound based on its own supply - demand fundamentals [40][41]. 3.2.24 Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, the market may rebound due to trade negotiations, but in the medium term, it is expected to remain weak due to factors such as weak demand and supply pressure [42][43]. 3.2.25 Coking Coal and Coke - In the short term, prices fluctuate with macro - policies. In the long term, without large - scale production cuts or reduced imports, there is no condition for long - positions [44][45]. 3.2.26 Ferroalloys - Do not chase high prices. Consider long - term short - positions when prices rise [46].

Key Points of the Report 1. Policy and International News - China's State Council held a meeting on strengthening the domestic economic cycle, emphasizing using the stability and long - term growth of the domestic cycle to counter the uncertainties of the international cycle for high - quality development [2] - China's top - level design for urban renewal was introduced, with eight major tasks including renovating old urban areas and strengthening infrastructure [2] - US President Trump said Iran agreed to some conditions of the nuclear agreement, and Iran's senior advisor stated Iran's willingness to forgo nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief [2] 2. Energy and Commodity Market Information - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a slowdown in global oil demand growth to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025, and lowered its forecast for US shale oil production due to falling prices. However, it raised the annual average demand growth forecast by 20,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [3] - As of the week ending May 15, the production and apparent demand of rebar increased, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory declined for the tenth consecutive week. Rebar production was 2.2653 million tons, up 1.34% from the previous week, and apparent demand was 2.6029 million tons, up 21.69% [3] 3. Commodity Market Performance - The night - trading performance of key commodities such as urea, crude oil, soybean oil, hot - rolled coil, and Shanghai copper was mentioned [4] - Different commodity sectors showed various performances, with the precious metals sector having a 29.55% increase, the coal - coking and steel - mining sector up 13.50%, and the chemical sector rising 13.17% [7] 4. Asset Performance - Different stock indices had different daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.68%, a monthly increase of 3.10%, and an annual increase of 0.87% [9] - Other assets like bonds, commodities, and the US dollar also had their respective performance. For instance, 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.02%, a monthly decline of 0.41%, and an annual decline of 0.34% [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, the government emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle, and the consumer market shows steady growth, indicating a stable economic foundation. Overseas, the global economic recovery is uneven, with the US economy strong but facing inflation, and Europe struggling with energy and supply - chain issues. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast [1]. - For key varieties: - Crude oil prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance in the oil market [2][14]. - Shipping, especially the container shipping European line, has seen price rebounds due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions, with different trends for different contracts [3][35]. - Gold prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations, tariff wars, and Fed policies, currently in a correction phase [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Main News - **International News**: The Fed is considering adjusting its monetary policy framework. The US may face more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation, and long - term interest rates may rise. The predicted April PCE in the US will increase by about 2.2% year - on - year [6]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle to hedge against international uncertainties and promote high - quality development [1][7]. - **Industry News**: The IEA predicts that the global oil demand growth will slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025, and has lowered the US shale oil production forecast [2][8]. 3.2 Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.41%, the European STOXX50 rose 0.60%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.38%, the US dollar index fell 0.24%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.87%, London gold rose 1.98%, London silver rose 1.33%, and various other commodities had different price changes [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Short - term positive factors such as policy support and tariff negotiation results are beneficial to the stock market. The valuation of major domestic indices is low, and stock index futures are expected to be bullish, while stock index options can use the wide - straddle buying strategy [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Sino - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and treasury bond futures prices fell with potential short - term volatility [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Short - term bullish, with changes in domestic device operation rates and inventory levels [15]. - **Rubber**: Expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as production area conditions and tariff policies [16]. - **Polyolefins**: After a phased rebound, they may oscillate at high levels, affected by macro factors and crude oil prices [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The market is reacting positively to the Sino - US financial talks. Glass inventory is slowly decreasing, and soda ash supply is relatively abundant, with both facing inventory digestion challenges [18][19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a correction phase, affected by geopolitical and tariff factors, and the Fed's wait - and - see attitude [4][5]. - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate widely, affected by factors such as processing fees, demand, and tariff negotiations [21]. - **Zinc**: Prices may also fluctuate widely, with expectations of improved supply and influenced by tariff negotiations [22]. - **Aluminum**: May be oscillating strongly due to the better - than - expected result of tariff negotiations, despite weakening short - term demand [23][24]. - **Nickel**: Prices may be oscillating strongly, with a mix of positive and negative factors in the market [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are weak, with a supply - demand imbalance. Without large - scale production cuts, the price outlook is pessimistic [26]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The black - metal sector is recovering due to macro - level positives, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face downward pressure [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term support exists due to iron - water production and demand, but it may be weakly volatile in the later stage due to expected supply increases [28]. - **Steel**: The market faces a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with short - term exports stable but a potential seasonal decline in demand [29][30]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are falling due to factors such as the weakening of US biodiesel speculation, high palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia, and falling crude oil prices [31]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybean prices are rising due to positive factors, but domestic supply is expected to increase, putting pressure on prices [32]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The market is in a short - term oscillation. Supply is expected to be tight in July, but high prices may affect downstream acceptance. There is an expectation of imported corn reserve auctions [33]. - **Cotton**: Spot prices are rising with improved macro sentiment. Supply is stable, and the market is bullish in the short - term due to tariff negotiations [34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping European Line**: Prices have rebounded due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions. The 06 contract's volatility is expected to be limited, while the 08 contract may remain strong [3][35].

| | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 时日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 即日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 间日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 1498.5 | 01805T | -9.5 | JM2601 | 0.668 | 911.0 | -12.0 | J01基差 | -9.5 | -19.0 | BE | | J2505 | 1520.0 | 1587.5 | -67.5 | JM2505 | 0.058 | 850.5 | -0.5 | 105基差 | -31.0 | -98.5 | 67.5 | | 12508 | 1472.0 | 1485.0 | -10.0 | 8055WIE | 0.688 | 894.5 | -11.5 | 109重要 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 100 | | J09-J01 | -26.5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields and the progress of the China - US trade agreement, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering the progress of the China - US trade agreement, it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and pullbacks provide better opportunities for layout. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on opportunities to short on rebounds, with timely profit - taking and attention to position management [15]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities, with timely profit - taking on rebounds and stop - loss if the previous low is broken, while paying attention to position management [17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on opportunities to short on rebounds, with timely profit - taking and attention to position management [19]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers at the bottom can consider exiting, and also consider virtual call options at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. - For crude oil, consider bearish operations on the main contract [25]. - For fuel oil, consider temporarily remaining on the sidelines for the main contract [27]. - For synthetic rubber, it is short - term bullish [30]. - For natural rubber, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [32]. - For PVC, it is expected to have a short - term rebound with limited upside [35]. - For urea, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [36]. - For PX, be cautious about the upside space in the short term and participate with caution, paying attention to changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [38]. - For PTA, treat it cautiously and bullishly in the short term, and consider range - bound operations at low levels, paying attention to risk control [39]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, be cautious about the upside space, and pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [41]. - For staple fiber, follow the cost side to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, participate with caution, and pay attention to risk control [42]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost side in the future, participate with caution, and pay attention to cost price changes [43]. - For soda ash, the loose pattern remains. In the short term, due to concentrated device maintenance in May, there may be short - term adjustments in the market, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [44]. - For glass, there is no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals. Although there may be some repair in market sentiment in the short term, the actual repair degree remains to be seen [45]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to the operation of enterprise devices and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices in the future [48]. - For pulp, it is expected to have a short - term rebound in the market, and in the future, pay attention to whether international pulp mills initiate substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [52]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to operate weakly [53]. - For copper, consider temporarily remaining on the sidelines for the main contract of Shanghai copper [55]. - For tin, it is expected that the upward pressure on tin prices is relatively large, and it should be viewed with a bearish and fluctuating perspective [56]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [57]. - For industrial silicon/polysilicon, maintain a bearish judgment overall and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season [58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [61]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [66]. - For cotton, pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low levels [70]. - For sugar, it is expected to operate in a range - bound manner, and use range - bound operations as a strategy [73]. - For apples, pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [77]. - For live pigs, consider temporarily remaining on the sidelines [79]. - For eggs, consider taking profits and then remaining on the sidelines [83]. - For corn and starch, remain on the sidelines for now [86]. - For logs, the fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price in the market is weak, providing weak support for the market [88]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 64.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 219.1 billion yuan on the same day. The issuance of special ultra - long - term Treasury bonds and local government special bonds is supported. The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but it is recommended to remain cautious [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The global economic recession risk increases under the influence of tariffs, and the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand provides short - term support. The valuation is low, and there are signs of a rebound. Investors can short on rebounds [15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The increase in demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high. Investors can buy at low levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. There are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can short on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon rose slightly, and silicon iron fell slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is high. For manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers at the bottom can consider exiting [22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. The increase in US crude oil inventories, Iran's willingness to reach an agreement, and OPEC's production increase put pressure on oil prices. Consider bearish operations [23][24]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fell sharply following crude oil. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is bearish for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the recovery of global trade demand is favorable. Consider remaining on the sidelines [26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber fell slightly. The supply pressure persists, but the demand and cost sides improve. It is short - term bullish with limited upside [28]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may improve. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the export demand is good. It is expected to have a short - term rebound with limited upside [33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The domestic export policy has adjusted, and the agricultural demand is about to start. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are recovering, and the load is increasing. The short - term upside space is limited. Be cautious and pay attention to crude oil and policies [37]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply and demand structure has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. Treat it cautiously and bullishly in the short term and consider range - bound operations at low levels [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply increase suppresses the price, but the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is improving. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [40]. Staple Fiber - On the previous trading day, staple fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is slightly improving, and it follows the cost side to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Participate with caution [42]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures fell. The raw material cost provides support, and the supply and demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost side [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. Some devices are under maintenance, and the raw material prices are falling. The supply is loose, and there may be short - term adjustments [44]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell slightly. The production line is at a low level, and the market is weak. There is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals, and the market sentiment may be repaired in the short term [45]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices are under maintenance, and the supply is decreasing. The demand is limited, and the price may be affected by alumina and liquid chlorine [47]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The tariff issue gives some confidence, but the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to have a short - term rebound [50]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly [53]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated downward. The Sino - US talks have achieved results, but the copper tariff issue remains uncertain. Consider remaining on the sidelines [54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose slightly. The supply may increase, but the demand is good. The upward pressure on prices is large, and it is expected to fluctuate bearishly [56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose slightly. The cost provides support, but the demand is weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [57]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon rose slightly, and polysilicon fell slightly. The demand is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. It is expected to be bearish overall [58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The US biodiesel policy affects the market. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. Remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom [60]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell, but strong export data limited the decline. The domestic inventory is low, and the consumption is increasing. Consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed fell. The 45Z biofuel tax credit extension is bearish for rapeseed oil. The domestic inventory of rapeseed is low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is high. Consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [65]. Cotton - Domestic cotton fluctuated, and external cotton fell. The USDA report is bearish, but the Sino - US talks are favorable. The downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low levels [67]. Sugar - Domestic sugar fell slightly, and external sugar fell 2%. The production in Brazil and India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and the import is low. It is expected to operate in a range - bound manner [71]. Apples - Apple futures fluctuated. There are signs of production reduction in some areas, and the inventory is low. The spot price is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [74]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs fell. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the consumption is in a short - term off - season. Consider temporarily remaining on the sidelines [78]. Eggs - The price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and the cost is decreasing. The price may be supported during the Dragon Boat Festival. Consider taking profits and then remaining on the sidelines [80]. Corn and Starch - Corn and corn starch futures fell. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be balanced in the long term. Remain on the sidelines for now [84]. Logs - Log futures fell. The import volume decreased in April, and the spot price showed regional differentiation. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force [87].