（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京9月29日电（记者余蕊）国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超29日在该 委新闻发布会上表示，随着各项政策效应充分释放，有信心继续保持经济平稳健康发展，有信心实现全 年目标任务。 李超介绍，从景气程度看，工业企业利润明显改善。1-8月，规模以上工业企业利润增速由负转正，从 1-7月的同比下降1.7%转为增长0.9%，单月增速由7月份的下降1.5%转为8月份增长20.4%。 "从需求侧看，政策效能持续显现，展现出较强的韧性和抗压能力。"她说，消费方面，以旧换新相关商 品零售额继续保持较快增长，前8个月全国乘用车新能源市场零售量同比增长超过20%；服务消费潜力 不断释放，前8个月服务零售额增长5.1%。投资方面，前8个月制造业投资增长5.1%，信息服务业，航 空、航天器及设备制造业，计算机及办公设备制造业投资同比分别增长34.1%、28.0%、12.6%，有力支 撑产业升级发展。外贸方面，8月份货物进出口总额同比增长3.5%，出口和进口连续三个月实现双增 长，对共建"一带一路"国家出口增长12.8%，贸易多元化成效持续显现。 李超表示，当前经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in the city remains stable and shows a positive trend in August, supported by the implementation of various policies [1][2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 8.3% year-on-year in August, outperforming the national and provincial averages by 3.1 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [1] - Key industries such as modern food manufacturing and electronic information industry saw significant growth, with added values increasing by 10.9% and 10.0% respectively, contributing 4.6 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] - Strategic emerging industries also grew rapidly, with an added value increase of 9.0% year-on-year [1] - From January to August, the industrial added value increased by 8.8% year-on-year, exceeding national and provincial growth rates by 2.6 and 0.3 percentage points [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the city grew by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, higher than the national and provincial growth rates by 4.6 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [1] - Investment in major projects (over 100 million) increased by 14.3% year-on-year, significantly boosting overall investment growth by 7.4 percentage points [1] Industrial Investment - Industrial investment continued to grow at a high rate, with a year-on-year increase of 34.1%, maintaining double-digit growth for eight consecutive months [2] - Private investment showed strong vitality, increasing by 9.5% year-on-year, contributing 5.5 percentage points to overall investment growth [2] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with notable growth in specific sectors such as computer and office equipment manufacturing (108.5%), pharmaceutical manufacturing (49.9%), and aerospace equipment manufacturing (41.3%) [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 52.53 billion yuan in August, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [2] - Basic living goods maintained rapid growth, while smart upgrade products like wearable devices and photographic equipment remained active, and fashion consumption saw accelerated growth [2] - From January to August, the total retail sales reached 435.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, and retail sales of units above designated size increased by 10.5% [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for residents decreased by 0.2% year-on-year from January to August [2] Conclusion - The city’s economy continues to show a stable and positive development trend, supported by the effectiveness of existing policies, although challenges remain due to a complex external environment and weak domestic demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for August show a marginal improvement compared to July, indicating a gradual recovery in the macroeconomic environment, supported by ongoing policy efforts aimed at achieving annual economic and social development goals [1][6][13]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a less severe contraction [3]. - The industrial added value growth rate for August decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 5.2%, a smaller decline than the 1.1 percentage points drop in July [3]. - Retail sales growth for social consumer goods fell by 0.3 percentage points to 3.4%, again a smaller decline than the previous month's 1.1 percentage points [3]. - Fixed asset investment growth for January to August is at 0.5%, slowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to January to July, which is less than the 1.2 percentage points decline from the previous month [3]. Export and Service Sector Performance - Exports maintained resilience with a year-on-year growth of 4.4% in August, down from 7.2% in July, but still reflecting a two-year compound growth rate of 6.5% [3][4]. - The service sector showed strong performance, with the service production index falling only 0.2 percentage points to 5.6% in August, and the business activity index rising to 50.5%, the highest this year [4]. New Growth Drivers - New growth drivers are performing strongly, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.1% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - Investment in information services and aerospace manufacturing grew significantly, with year-on-year increases of 34.1% and 28.0% [4]. Price Trends - The CPI for August showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while the core CPI increased by 0.9%, marking the highest growth in 18 months, indicating a release of service consumption potential [4]. - The PPI remained flat month-on-month, ending an eight-month decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, narrowing from 3.6% in the previous month [4]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The loan balance growth in August was 6.8%, slightly down from 6.9% in July, while the social financing stock grew by 8.8%, down from 9.0% [5]. - The government issued 1.4 trillion yuan in new debt in August, a decrease of 251.9 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a reduced support role for government debt in social financing [10]. Policy Coordination - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to strengthen, with discussions on financial market operations and government bond issuance management [11]. - New policies aimed at promoting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market are being introduced, including measures to enhance service consumption and support housing market recovery [12]. Overall Economic Outlook - The current macroeconomic policy is characterized by a gradual and supportive approach, with potential for more robust counter-cyclical adjustments if economic pressures increase [13].

Economic Overview - In August, the overall economic operation remained stable, with solid progress in high-quality development, characterized by steady production growth, expanding domestic demand, increasing foreign trade and reserves, overall stability, and ongoing transformation and upgrading with a prominent role of innovation [1] Consumer Market - In August, the retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, showing resilience in the consumption market [2] - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 323,906 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [2] - The rural consumption market outpaced urban areas, with retail sales in rural areas growing by 4.6% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points higher than urban growth [2] Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size grew by 5.2% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid growth trend [3] - The manufacturing sector saw an increase of 5.7%, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, indicating structural optimization within the industrial economy [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed resilience despite short-term pressures, with a total of 326,111 billion yuan from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [4] - Infrastructure investment grew by 2.0%, while manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, indicating ongoing support for economic growth [4] - High-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, experienced significant investment growth, with increases of 34.1% and 28.0% respectively [4] Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macro policies has positively influenced economic performance, particularly in expanding domestic demand and enhancing production efficiency [5][6] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative has led to a notable increase in the production of new products, such as industrial robots and drones, contributing to the growth of the digital economy [6]

Economic Overview - In the first eight months of the year, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 326.111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%. Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% [1] - Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment rose by 5.1%. Real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.9% [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, outpacing overall investment growth by 4.6 percentage points, contributing 1.3 percentage points to total investment growth [1] - Investment in consumer goods manufacturing increased by 9.0%, and equipment manufacturing investment grew by 3.2%. High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as aerospace and computer equipment, saw significant investment growth of 28.0% and 12.6%, respectively [1] Investment Trends - The data indicates a structural shift in investment, with a notable increase in investments related to downstream and consumer-related industries, reflecting a trend towards demand-driven investment [1] - The real estate sector is transitioning from a focus on new growth to managing existing stock, indicating a shift in investment strategy [1] Private Investment - Private investment decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, but when excluding real estate development, it grew by 3.0% [2] - The government is implementing measures to stimulate private investment, focusing on removing barriers and enhancing support for private enterprises [3][4] Consumer Demand - The third batch of consumer goods replacement policies has been implemented, contributing to the release of consumer demand and driving sales growth in related goods [2] - In August, retail sales of household appliances and cultural office supplies continued to show double-digit growth, indicating strong consumer demand [2] Future Outlook - The government aims to maintain a stable economic environment while promoting high-quality development through various macroeconomic policies [3] - The focus will be on enhancing the investment environment for private enterprises, particularly in green industries and future technologies [3][4]

Core Insights - Fixed asset investment in China maintained growth in the first eight months of the year, with manufacturing investment growing rapidly [2] Investment Overview - From January to August, total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 32,611.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2] - Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% [2] Sector Performance - Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year-on-year [2] - Manufacturing investment saw a growth of 5.1% [2] - Real estate development investment declined by 12.9% [2] Real Estate Market - The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 57,304 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year [2] - The sales amount of newly built commercial housing was 55,015 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3% [2] Industry Breakdown - Investment in the primary industry grew by 5.5% year-on-year [2] - Investment in the secondary industry increased by 7.6% [2] - Investment in the tertiary industry declined by 3.4% [2] Private Investment - Private investment decreased by 2.3% year-on-year [2] - Excluding real estate development investment, private investment grew by 3.0% [2] High-Tech Industry - Investment in high-tech industries showed significant growth, with information services, aerospace and equipment manufacturing, and computer and office equipment manufacturing increasing by 34.1%, 28.0%, and 12.6% respectively [2] Monthly Trends - In August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.20% [2]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a growth of about 5% in the first seven months when combining goods and services retail [1] - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year in the first seven months, with actual growth (excluding price factors) estimated at around 4% to 5% [1] - Investment in high-end industries such as aerospace and equipment manufacturing, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services saw significant increases of 33.9%, 16%, and 32.8% respectively [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The government aims to stimulate consumption and explore potential growth points in investment, focusing on key projects that meet development needs and public expectations [2] - A mechanism will be established to encourage private enterprises to participate in major national projects, with minimum shareholding requirements for private investments in significant sectors like railways and nuclear power [2] - The construction bidding market is highlighted as a crucial part of the unified national market, with private enterprises winning 36.6 million bids, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [2] Group 3: Artificial Intelligence Initiatives - The State Council has issued opinions on implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, focusing on six major actions including technology, industry development, and global cooperation [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need for a systematic approach to implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, utilizing various policies and funding mechanisms [3][4] - The initiative requires a gradual implementation strategy, considering factors such as technology maturity and industry development [4]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a combined growth of about 5% from January to July [1] - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, with actual growth adjusted for price factors between 4% to 5% [1] - High-end industries such as aerospace equipment manufacturing, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services saw significant investment growth of 33.9%, 16%, and 32.8% respectively [1] Group 2: Consumption Strategy - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement a comprehensive strategy to boost consumption, including large-scale vocational skills training to promote employment among key groups [2] - Policies will be introduced to facilitate the replacement of old consumer goods, accelerate the rollout of policies in emerging sectors like digital consumption and "AI+" consumption, and promote service consumption in tourism and events [2] Group 3: Artificial Intelligence Initiative - The State Council has issued opinions on the implementation of the "AI+" initiative, which aims to deepen the integration of AI technology across various sectors, enhancing industrial upgrades and consumer transformation [3] - The current conditions for implementing "AI+" are deemed mature, with AI technology evolving to exhibit strong general capabilities suitable for various applications [3][4] - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of coordination among various stakeholders to ensure effective implementation of the "AI+" initiative, avoiding disordered competition and fostering collaborative development [4][5]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is committed to implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and optimizing the dual circulation system [1] - The NDRC plans to boost consumption through various measures, including vocational training for key groups, improving minimum wage standards, and promoting policies for digital consumption and service sectors [1] - The government aims to explore potential growth points by increasing investment in key areas, particularly in livelihood projects, and enhancing support for private investment in major national projects [1] Group 2 - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a stable overall performance in the service market, indicating a steady upward trend in consumption [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% from January to July, with real growth adjusted for price factors estimated at 4%-5%, reflecting an optimization in investment structure [2] - Despite some fluctuations in economic indicators, the overall trend of expanding domestic demand and optimizing investment structure remains unchanged, with significant potential for growth in consumption and investment [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite short-term fluctuations in investment and consumption data in July, the overall trend of expanding consumption and optimizing investment structure in China remains unchanged [1] - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the combined growth of goods and services retail for January to July is around 5% [1] - Fixed asset investment from January to July grew by 1.6% year-on-year, with actual growth (excluding price factors) estimated at around 4% to 5% [1] - High-end industries such as aerospace and equipment manufacturing, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services saw significant investment growth of 33.9%, 16%, and 32.8% respectively [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement strategies to boost domestic demand, enhance internal circulation, and optimize external circulation [2] - A comprehensive approach will be taken to stimulate consumption, including large-scale vocational skills training, improving minimum wage standards, and implementing policies for trade-in of consumer goods [2] - The government aims to identify potential growth points and expand investment, focusing on key projects in essential sectors, particularly in people's livelihoods [3] - Policies will be developed to promote private investment, including setting minimum participation ratios for private investments in major projects [3] - Efforts will be made to accelerate the construction of a unified national market, including the elimination of market access barriers and the regulation of local investment behaviors [3]