投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 the first 流的衍生品综合服务商 DATE 入 期 市 市 服 热线 官 方 网 站 需 有 客 译 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 0）中长朗观点。中长期来看，美联储仍处于宽松周期、全球地缘不确定性持续、美国债务不可持续和大国博弈加剧将长期增加美元信用网险，全球央行机构勾居 民的配置需求延续等,黄金中长期重心大概率继续上移,建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 本我告中的偏息均源于公元可获得的资料，国资货分文推商工靠。但不对上这信息的准确性及完整性的任何保证。本者告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别发资者持放的投资目标、仅资机动需要，投资 者:自行列颐本报告中的任河意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。据此:投资，责任自负。本报告似向推定客户推选。未经国贸联货投资许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为您的成团贸雅货的专贸 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 IIC EN B 4月1日 1 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut signals deeper internal divisions and uncertainties regarding future economic conditions, rather than just a routine monetary policy adjustment [1][2][6] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September and the sixth since the current easing cycle began in September 2024 [1] - The decision was passed with a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, indicating significant dissent within the Federal Reserve, the first occurrence of dissenting votes since 2019 [1][2] Group 2: Internal Divisions and Economic Outlook - There is a notable split among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with 8 out of 19 predicting more than one cut next year, while 7 believe rate cuts should stop entirely, and 3 even suggest the need for rate hikes [2] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged a rare conflict of dual objectives: rising inflation and declining employment, indicating a challenging environment for monetary policy [1][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the Fed's decision, major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones gaining nearly 500 points, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.153% [3] - The Fed's optimistic economic growth forecast for 2026 was raised to 2.3%, despite concerns about the labor market and potential overestimation of official employment data [3][4] Group 4: Political Implications and Future Projections - The potential appointment of a new Fed Chair, who may have a dovish stance, raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the impact of political pressure on monetary policy [4][6] - Analysts suggest that the Fed may still have room for two rate cuts in 2026, potentially lowering rates to around 3%, but this will be heavily influenced by political dynamics [4][5] Group 5: Global Impact - The Fed's decisions have global implications, as a slowdown in rate cuts could provide other developed countries' central banks with more policy flexibility [5] - Emerging markets may benefit from a period of moderate dollar liquidity, but their asset performance will depend on internal growth dynamics and geopolitical risk mitigation [5]

Group 1 - The market reaction to the Fed's commentary was influenced by prior positioning, with expectations for a more hawkish stance than what was delivered [2][3] - The Federal Reserve aims to achieve a neutral policy rate, with estimates ranging from 2.75% to 3.75%, indicating uncertainty in the exact target [3][4] - The Fed remains data-dependent, with upcoming payroll and CPI reports expected to impact their decision-making [5][6] Group 2 - Since the Fed began cutting rates over a year ago, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased, highlighting a dislocation in market expectations [8][10] - Treasury yields have generally been lower year-to-date, with the U.S. performing well among developed markets [9] - The persistence of high real yields, despite rate cuts, suggests market confidence in structural growth and productivity improvements [11][12]

当地时间12月09日至12月10日，美国联邦储备委员会将举行12月货币政策例会，美联储利率决议和经济预期摘要将于北京时间12月11日凌晨03:00公布。随 着美联储议息会议进入倒计时，市场对美联储降息25个基点的预期概率上升至87.4%左右。一直以来，美联储的货币政策都是黄金市场的重要风向标，美联 储利率决议前后的黄金市场波动将愈发剧烈。 目前，全球金融市场聚焦美联储利率决议，从历史经验来看，当美联储宣布降息，则可能削弱美元，支撑黄金价格上涨，并为敏锐的投资者提供重要的布局 机会。对投资者来说，在持续波动的市场行情中，毫秒级的交易延迟都可能导致错失最佳投资时机或造成投资亏损扩大。金荣中国作为最值得投资者信赖的 贵金属交易平台，以业内领先的极速交易体系助力投资者抢占市场先机，盈利快人一步。 自2010年成立以来，金荣中国始终秉承客户至上的服务理念，以客户利益为先，面对市场和投资者对极速交易的迫切需求，通过科技赋能金融，以技术创新 驱动平台发展，凭借顶级流动性中枢和业内领先的AI驱动交易系统，构建了覆盖交易执行、资金划转和工具应用的全流程极速交易体系。 由金荣中国自主研发的金荣中国APP专业贵金属交易软件，集成强 ...

来源：国是直通车 作者：陶思阅 受此前美国联邦政府"停摆"影响，多项关键经济数据发布延迟，这意味着美联储在数据受限的条件下进 行利率决策。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会发表声明称，经济前景的不确定性依然较高，近几个月就业面临的 下行风险有所增加。鉴于风险平衡变化，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 就本次降息25个基点，联邦公开市场委员会12名委员中9人投票赞成，有3人投反对票。其中一名委员要 求降息50个基点，另外两名委员主张维持利率不变。这是自2019年以来首次出现如此多的反对票。 鲍威尔表示，今年美联储通过三次会议降息75个基点，这一政策立场的进一步正常化将有助于稳定劳动 力市场，同时使通胀在关税影响消退后得以重新朝着2%的目标下降。鲍威尔还指出，美国关税政策导 致通胀过高。 特朗普表示，经济增长并不意味着通货膨胀，即使出现通货膨胀也没关系，可以减缓通货膨胀。 传递的政策信号值得关注 专家分析认为，议息会议传递的未来政策信号和美联储内部团结度值得关注。美联储两大使命是促进充 分就业和维持物价稳定，然而在今年10月的货币政策会议上，美联储官员当时已就12月是否进一步降息 出现明显分歧。 如市场 ...

美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 ...

△美联储（资料图） 经济前景不确定性较高 就业下行风险增加 10日，美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明称，现有指标表明美国经济活动一直以温和 的速度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率自年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水 平。经济前景的不确定性依然较高，近几个月就业面临的下行风险有所增加。鉴于风险平衡变化，决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 △美国劳工部（资料图） 此前，美联储官员就关税政策对通胀的影响以及是否在12月进一步降息存在分歧，但美国就业市场数据 恶化推高了降息预期。 鲍威尔： 当地时间10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间。 这是美联储继今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 美国关税政策导致通胀过高 美联储主席鲍威尔在10日的新闻发布会上表示，今年美联储通过三次会议降息75个基点，这一政策立场 的进一步正常化将有助于稳定劳动力市场，同时使通胀在关税影响消退后得以重新朝着2%的目标下 降。鲍威尔还指出，美国关税政策导致通胀过高。 △10日，美联储主席鲍威尔就降息决定发 ...

港股通周三净流出10.2亿港元，其中小米集团(01810.HK)净流入最多，达6.2亿港元，其次是农业银行(01288.HK)。另 一方面，盈富基金(02800.HK)录得最大净流出，达15.6亿港元，其次是腾讯控股(00700.HK)。 美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从3.75%至4.00%下调至3.50%至3.75%，同时启动 短期美国国债的购买。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后强调，"下次会加息"不是任何人的基本假设，就业增长实际或被高 估，自四月以来就业增长可能已经略微转负，劳动力市场仍在持续、逐步降温，可能只是比此前预期的降温幅度略微 更温和一些。通胀方面，他表示关税影响明年料逐渐消退。他说，目前利率所处位置使美联储能够耐心等待，观察经 济接下来将如何演变。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting December 12 to maintain adequate reserve levels[7] - The decision to lower rates was supported by signs of a weakening labor market, with private sector employment unexpectedly decreasing by 32,000 in November, the largest drop since March 2023[6] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of one rate cut next year, with inflation projected to slow to around 2.4% by year-end[3] - GDP growth forecasts were raised, with the largest increase of 0.5 percentage points for next year, while unemployment rate expectations were slightly lowered by 0.1 percentage points for 2027[3] - Core PCE inflation is expected to remain above 2.3% in the first half of 2026, influenced by high tariffs and other economic factors[10] Group 3: Internal Disagreements - There were notable dissenting votes during the rate decision, with three members opposing the cut, reflecting internal divisions on inflation and employment risks[2] - The dot plot revealed significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate paths, indicating ongoing disagreements within the Fed[9] - The Fed's statement included new language suggesting a higher threshold for future rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach moving forward[9]

贵金属：银价进入加速上涨阶段，谨防价格剧烈波动风险 报告要点： 专题报告 2025-12-11 国际银价在新任联储主席热门候选人哈塞特表态明确鸽派后出现强势上涨，白银市场交易 的核心逻辑仍是联储主席换届完成后联储独立性所受到的冲击以及后续可能存在的激进降息 操作，但当前白银价格已经进入加速上涨阶段，投资者需关注美联储 12 月议息会议预期落地 后所存在的价格剧烈波动风险。 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 贵金属研究 一、新任联储主席热门候选人哈塞特表态鸽派 11 月，美联储新任主席热门候选人哈塞特明确表示"若被提名为美联储主席，将非常乐 意进行任职"，而随后特朗普表示他知道将会选择谁成为美联储主席，且很快将会宣布这一决 定。而在十二月初，特朗普在内阁会议中再度暗示哈塞特将成为新任联储主席，特朗普表示他 将在明年年初宣布联储主席人选，但他随后在介绍哈塞特时表示，"潜在的美联储主席就在这 里"，这几乎确定了哈塞特将被提名为新任联储主席。哈塞特的联储主席任命将会使得特朗普 的意图被完整带入美联储 ...