证券研究报告 | 2025年06月05日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-06-04 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3376.20 | 10144.58 | 3868.74 | 11525.47 | 2844.42 | 986.11 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.42 | 0.86 | 0.43 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.44 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4468.44 | 7062.02 | 2117.36 | 2689.03 | 3194.93 | 182.81 | 【重点推荐】 宏观与策略 固定收益月报:债市阿尔法追踪-5 月：债市表现分化，利率债下跌信用 债上涨 【常规内容】 行业与公司 银行理财 2025 年 6 月月报：当"存款搬家"遇到监管指引 北交所 2025 年 5 月月报：北证 50 月内创历史新高，机构对北交所关注 度持续提升 电子行业周报：中美关税博弈再反复，自主可 ...

[Table_Title] 自强者胜——关税应对策略三部曲（三） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨行业深度 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在宏观环境持续扰动的大背景下，世界"新格局"逐步显现，中国有望在各个领域得到长足发 展。在科技领域，我国明确提出自主可控发展路线，着力解决各"卡脖子"领域面临的技术和 产业化难题。在本篇报告中，长江策略联合金属、化工、机械、军工、电子、计算机、通信和 医药组，构建自上而下的自主可控行业研究框架，再结合自下而上视角梳理自主可控领域的核 心细分赛道和核心标的，以期得到较为完整的自主可控领域的投资图谱。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 王鹤涛 马太 SAC：S0490524010002 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516100002 SFC：BTR264 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT911 赵智勇 王贺嘉 杨洋 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490517070012 SFC：BRP550 SFC ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the Chinese stock market is entering a "transformation bull" phase, driven by a clearer understanding of economic conditions and a reduction in the marginal impact of valuation contraction [1][2] - The key drivers of the market include a decline in the risk-free interest rate and a systematic reduction in risk perception, which have historically hindered investor willingness to enter the market [2][3] - The article highlights the importance of timely and reasonable economic policies, as well as reforms in the capital market that focus on investor returns, which are crucial for changing the conservative attitudes of investors towards risk [2][3] Group 2 - Emerging technology is identified as a main investment theme, while cyclical finance is seen as a dark horse opportunity. The article suggests that the real issues in the Chinese economy are not solely in real estate but in broader economic stability and innovation [3] - Recommendations for investment include sectors such as financial services (brokerages, banks, insurance), high-dividend companies (telecom operators, highways, public utilities), and emerging technologies (internet, media, robotics, pharmaceuticals, military) [3] - The article also points to new consumption trends and cyclical recovery in commodities, recommending investments in rare earths, chemicals, retail, and cosmetics, as well as themes like AI, regional economic development, and self-sufficiency in technology [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guoxin Technology has established a strategic cooperation framework with international automotive parts supplier Aptiv to promote the localization of automotive core chips and reduce dependence on foreign chips [2] Group 1: Company Development and Strategy - Guoxin Technology focuses on "self-controllable" and "domestic substitution" in its development, aiming to cover 95% of the market dominated by international manufacturers with its automotive electronic chip products [2] - The company has developed a complete product line of 12 automotive-grade chip products, including domain control chips, advanced driver assistance processing chips, and dedicated DSP chips for active noise cancellation, targeting high-end applications in power systems and safety airbags [2] - The vision and development strategy of Guoxin Technology is to develop domestically scarce products with high technical barriers and achieve performance levels comparable to international chip giants [2] Group 2: Competitive Positioning - Guoxin Technology is directly competing with international chip giants and advancing domestic substitution, having integrated key safety airbag chips into a single solution [3] - The demand for chips in vehicles has increased from 600-800 in traditional fuel vehicles to over 1000 in modern vehicles, making the self-controllable capability of domestic chips a key competitive factor [3] Group 3: Product Development and Market Expansion - In 2024, Guoxin Technology's cumulative shipments of automotive electronic chips are expected to exceed 10 million units, with ongoing development of products supporting 48V power systems [5] - The company is actively developing high-end autonomous chips and modules in fields such as information security and artificial intelligence, aiming to integrate AI technology with existing products [5] - Guoxin Technology has successfully tested a high-performance cloud security chip based on the RISC-V architecture, achieving industry-leading performance metrics [5][6] Group 4: Future Prospects - The company plans to expand its cloud security and quantum security chip designs, including the development of quantum-resistant cryptographic chips [6] - Guoxin Technology has launched two AIMCU chips based on the RISC-V CPU architecture, promoting applications in smart home and industrial automation sectors [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a volatile trend with noticeable theme rotation, while defensive sectors like banking are performing well, and small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 and Northbound 50 indices show signs of upward movement [1] - In the Hong Kong stock market, high-quality leading companies listed in both A and H shares are gaining attention, driven by profit effects and incremental capital, reflecting the structural growth potential of new consumption and new technology companies [1] - The report highlights that companies with strong fundamental growth are increasingly being recognized in the current market style, which places more weight on fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The company believes that many excellent firms are demonstrating strong operational resilience and growth capabilities amidst various fundamental factors, providing more selection opportunities for bottom-up stock picking [2] - The focus for future opportunities includes: first, leading companies in high-end manufacturing with global operational capabilities that can shift production from China to global markets; second, companies in the AI innovation upgrade space, such as smart terminals, consumer electronics, and data centers, which maintain strong profitability; third, investments in self-controllable sectors represented by semiconductor equipment and domestic computing power [2] - Despite existing uncertainties, the report asserts that the growth resilience exhibited by excellent companies based on their strengths offers relatively scarce certainty from a micro perspective [2]

编辑：林森 着眼于产业趋势，同时结合宏观经济、外部关税的可能演进，淡水泉投资继续聚焦在以下三个方面。其 一，高端制造领域具有全球化运营实力的头部公司，这类公司在面对外部关税挑战时，有能力将产能外 移，从中国制造走向全球制造，加大对非美市场的拓展，降低对美国市场的依赖，一定程度上也具备相 对的关税免疫能力。其二，看好AI创新升级带来的智能终端、消费电子、数据中心等产业链公司的投 资机会，这些企业作为产业链上的"卖水人"难以被替代，同时大客户的新产品也有望带动企业盈利的增 长。此外，布局了以半导体设备、国产算力为代表的自主可控领域，这类机会更加能够平衡关税的影 响。最后，在内需方向，一些具备业绩快速增长潜力的新消费头部公司也是关注方向。（资讯） 近期，A股市场在中美达成阶段性共识开启关税谈判后，情绪有所回升，市场普遍反弹。伴随着情绪修 复，A股市场回补了4月"对等关税"冲击带来的下跌缺口，不过市场整体风险偏好仍相对较低。头部私 募机构淡水泉投资发布的最新月报表示，越来越多近期赴港上市的"A+H"优质龙头走到了市场的聚光灯 前。港股IPO的火爆，AH溢价的趋势性收敛，这既得益于赚钱效应和增量资金的推动，也反映出优秀 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a significant rise, with companies like Cambricon and Weir Shares both increasing over 2% [1] - The merger and resumption of trading between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is expected to create a substantial positive impact on the semiconductor and computing power sectors [1] - The Semiconductor Equipment ETF (SH561980) saw an increase of over 0.3%, with Haiguang Information making up approximately 9% of its index [1] Group 2 - The index adjustment in June will remove six companies, including Weir Shares, and add six new companies, enhancing the focus on semiconductor materials and equipment [3] - The new companies being added have an average market capitalization of 52.2 billion, which is nearly 60% higher than those being removed [3] - The adjustment is expected to increase the proportion of semiconductor equipment and materials in the index to over 70% [3] Group 3 - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang aims to consolidate resources and enhance competitive advantages in R&D, supply chain, and market presence [4] - The Semiconductor Equipment ETF is increasingly focusing on semiconductor equipment and materials, with recent net inflows indicating strong investor interest [4] - The current market dynamics suggest a shift towards long-term stable sectors like semiconductor equipment, rather than chasing volatile hot stocks [6]

Group 1 - The software ETF has shown significant liquidity with an intraday turnover of 1.83% and a transaction volume of 52.98 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past week at 177 million yuan [3] - The software ETF has experienced a notable scale increase of 67.23 million yuan over the past week, also ranking first among comparable funds in terms of new scale [3] - In terms of capital inflow, the software ETF has attracted a total of 18.06 million yuan over the last four trading days [3] Group 2 - According to Straits Research, the global EDA software market is projected to reach approximately 17.42 billion USD by 2025, while the Chinese EDA market is expected to be around 18.49 billion yuan [3] - The global EDA market is predominantly dominated by three major US companies, which hold over 80% of the domestic EDA market share in China, highlighting the importance of self-sufficiency and the need for domestic EDA companies to enhance their product offerings through mergers and acquisitions [3] - Huaxin Securities notes that the global EDA market is characterized by a tripartite structure, with Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens EDA holding a dominant position, capturing 70% of the market share in mainland China [3] Group 3 - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Software Service Index include companies such as iFlytek, Kingsoft Office, and Tonghuashun, collectively accounting for 59.85% of the index [4] - Investors can also consider the software ETF linked fund (012620) to capitalize on AI software investment opportunities [4]

Core Insights - The "Deep Integration of Technological Innovation and Industrial Innovation" topic was launched by the Chinese Academy of Sciences on May 27, 2025, aiming to explore strategic directions and countermeasures for integrated development, providing theoretical support for new productive forces [1] - The "Innovation and Entrepreneurship Investment Conference" showcased over 50 cutting-edge achievements, promoting industry connections [1] Industry Analysis - According to招商证券, the performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Index-related industries showed divergence in May, with a high proportion of loss-making companies in the software development and technology sectors, indicating significant capacity clearing pressure [1] - In terms of economic conditions, the export value of integrated circuits in the information technology sector saw an expanded year-on-year growth, while the growth rate of LCD shipments slowed down [1] - Profitability forecasts suggest that in June, improvements in earnings for companies in the Sci-Tech sector may be concentrated in the TMT manufacturing segments [1] - The upgrade of Google's AI ecosystem is driving technological iterations, with innovative products like AI video generation tool Veo 3 and image tool Imagen 4 potentially catalyzing the Sci-Tech industry chain [1] - Industry allocation should pay attention to external tariff uncertainties and focus on layouts around the theme of self-control [1] Investment Products - The Guotai Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF (589630) tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Index (000680), which is published by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and aims to reflect the overall market performance of the Sci-Tech board, primarily focusing on small and mid-cap companies in early innovation stages [1]

Core Viewpoint - In May, there was a notable shift in ETF fund flows, with major broad-based ETFs experiencing net outflows, while sector-specific ETFs, particularly in technology and innovation, attracted significant capital inflows exceeding 20 billion yuan [1][5]. Fund Flows - Major broad-based ETFs transitioned from net inflows in April to net outflows in May, while sector-specific ETFs, especially those focused on semiconductors, chips, and high-end manufacturing, saw combined inflows of over 20 billion yuan [1][5]. - The top three ETFs attracting capital in May were Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF (49.31 billion yuan), Guolianan Semiconductor ETF (23.64 billion yuan), and Jiashi Science and Technology Chip ETF (18.74 billion yuan) [1][5][6]. Market Performance - The A-share market index showed steady recovery in May, with certain sectors like agriculture, public utilities, media, and electricity indices rising over 2%, while the electronics index fell by 2.85% [3]. - Despite the overall weak performance of certain sectors, technology-focused ETFs experienced a counter-trend capital inflow, indicating a shift in market risk appetite from defensive sectors to technology growth [5][9]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector displayed significant internal differentiation, with notable performances in areas such as autonomous driving, AI, and robotics, driven by positive news and developments [10]. - The semiconductor index, Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 index, and semiconductor index saw declines of 2.24%, 3.50%, and 5.68% respectively from May 6 to May 30 [4]. Investment Trends - Analysts suggest that the investment focus in the technology sector will continue to revolve around AI, with expectations of significant market opportunities arising from advancements in AI applications and hardware [2][11]. - The capital inflow into technology ETFs is attributed to three main factors: concentrated policy benefits, validated industry prosperity, and attractive valuation of certain technology stocks [8][9]. Future Outlook - The investment strategy for the second half of 2025 is expected to remain centered on AI, with a focus on domestic technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [11]. - Analysts recommend monitoring sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies, such as new consumption and biopharmaceuticals, alongside technology-focused investments [11][12].