证券研究报告|行业动态报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 9 日 [Table_Title] 2025Q1 黄金整体需求平稳，投资需求大跃升 [Table_Title2] 有色金属 [Table_Summary] ►供给：2025Q1 黄金回收量有所下降，但创纪录的矿 山产量和生产商套期保值头寸上调推动 2025Q1 总供应 量增长 1% 2025Q1 黄金总供应量同比增长 1%，达到 1,206 吨。这一供应 量主要得益于创纪录的金矿产量 856 吨--这是自 2000 年以来的 第一季度最高纪录，同比增长 0.27%。尽管回收量同比下降 1%至 345 吨，但总供应量得到了对生产商套期保值头寸总估计 值的小幅上调的补充。 ►需求：2025Q1 黄金需求达到 1206 吨，同比增长 1%，环比减少 7% 2025Q1 黄金需求总量（含场外投资）同比增长 1%，环比减少 7%，达到 1,206 吨--这是自 2016 年以来第一季度的最高水平。 其中金饰制造 434.0 吨，同比减少 19%，环比减少 17%；科技 用金 80.5 吨，同比持平，环比减少 3%；投资需求 551.9 吨， 同 ...

威廉姆斯表示："如今，无论经济冲击、政府政策变化，还是全球化与去全球化的波动如何，央行都认 识到维持物价稳定是它们的职责：它们是物价稳定的捍卫者。"他补充道，通过有效履行其使命，"央行 赢得了公众的信任"。 尽管失业率上升和通胀风险加剧，美联储官员本周仍决定维持基准利率不变。政策制定者正在等待更明 确的数据，以评估大规模关税措施对经济的实际影响。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，将通胀预期稳定在政策制定者目标附近是央行工作的"基石"。 威廉姆斯在准备于冰岛雷克雅未克会议上发表的讲话稿中指出，对央行官员而言，一个"关键教训"就 是"保持良好锚定的通胀预期的重要性，特别是在不确定性极高时期"。 威廉姆斯此番表态正值美联储面临其双重使命——维持物价稳定和实现充分就业——可能产生冲突的关 键时刻。根据纽约联储最新调查，4月美国消费者对中期通胀预期急剧上升，同时家庭对就业市场的看 法也趋于悲观。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普正持续向政策制定者施压，要求通过降息来抵消关税政策对经济增长和劳动 力市场的负面影响。 威廉姆斯的言论表明，他特别关注美联储使命中的通胀管理职责。这与美联储主席鲍威尔近期表态相呼 应。鲍威尔曾强调，没有价格稳 ...

美联储的威廉姆斯：保持通胀预期稳固非常重要。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Williams, emphasizes its role as a protector of price stability, highlighting the importance of a robust monetary policy that combines rules and discretion [1] Group 1 - The central bank has gained credibility in achieving its objectives, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [1] - Anchored inflation expectations are identified as a cornerstone of the central bank's strategy [1]

Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固定收益点评 2025 年 5 月 9 日 美联储降息的关注点是什么? ➢ 货币政策均维持3月会议水平 美东时间5月7日，今年第三次FOMC会议落幕。联邦基金利率维持在 4.25-4.50%区间。其余货币政策亦均较3月会议没有改变，缩表进程 放缓同前（3月将允许每月250亿美元国债自然到期，调整为允许每 月50亿美元国债自然到期）。 团队成员 分析师: 徐亮 执业证书编号： S0210524040003 邮箱： xl30484@hfzq.com.cn 联系人: 黄涵静 邮箱： hhj30695@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1.《【华福固收】热门题材转债配置指南》 2025-05-08 2.《【华福固收】如何看待美国财政预算上 两院分歧？》 2025-05-08 证 券 研 究 报 告 固 收 研 究 海 外 宏 观 利 率 点 评 诚信专业 发现价值 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 Table_First e p y T t r o p e R _ e l b a T | t s r i F _ e l b a T Table_First| ...

美国经济的未来走向似乎正被两股力量拉扯。一方面，通胀预期的上升引发了市场的关注；另一方面， 就业市场的不确定性又为经济增长蒙上了阴影。纽约联储发布的最新月度调查揭示了这一复杂局面：美 国消费者的中期通胀预期在4月攀升至近三年的高点，而对就业市场的看法却出现了明显的恶化。 调查显示，消费者对未来三年通胀的预估中值在4月升至3.2%，这是自2022年7月以来的最高水平。这 一数据的变化可能暗示着消费者对未来物价上涨的担忧正在加剧。然而，这种担忧并非全面性的，因为 对未来一年通胀率的预期保持稳定，而对长期通胀率的预期甚至小幅降至2.7%。这种短期与中期通胀 预期的分化，反映出消费者对当前经济形势的复杂认知：他们既担心近期物价的快速上涨，又对长期经 济的稳定性保持一定的信心。 美联储官员正在密切关注这一趋势。他们试图通过消费者对未来物价压力的预期来评估政策变化，尤其 是贸易政策调整，是否会引发持续的通胀。关税政策的不确定性无疑是当前经济中的一个重要变量。关 税的范围和持续时间尚不明确，这可能导致消费者对未来通胀的不确定性加剧。贸易政策的变化不仅影 响到企业的生产成本和供应链布局，也可能通过进口商品价格的上涨传导至消费 ...

数据显示，美国家庭对当前及未来经济状况的评估急转直下，收入增长预期放缓，就业前景悲观情绪升 温，但消费支出预期却逆势增长，形成"收入悲观、消费顽强"的矛盾格局。 财务信心受挫，收入与就业预期双降 新华财经北京5月9日电 纽约联邦储备银行周四发布的消费者预期调查报告显示，美国总统特朗普4月发 起的全球贸易战已对美国民众财务信心造成显著冲击。 4月调查结果显示，美国民众对财务状况的乐观度较3月明显下滑。 受访者对未来收入和工资增长的预期普遍下调，失业率上升预期增强，求职难度加大的担忧亦同步攀 升。尽管经济不确定性增加，消费者短期支出预期却意外增长，折射出市场对即期消费的依赖与长期收 入信心不足的背离。 通胀预期分化，多领域价格压力持续 通胀预期呈现结构性差异：1年期通胀预期持平于3.6%，3年期预期升至3.2%（为2022年7月以来最 高），5年期预期微降至2.7%。公众对房租、汽油价格及大学学费的涨价预期显著升温，房价年度涨幅 预期从3%提至3.3%，显示通胀压力仍广泛存在于民生关键领域。 美联储维稳利率，政策应对存挑战 美联储周四宣布维持短期利率不变。尽管决策者认为经济总体健康，但特朗普政府的关税政策被视作潜 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, boosting market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and various economic data [2]. - The prices of most commodities showed different trends of fluctuations. Precious metals prices continued to adjust, copper prices were strongly volatile, aluminum prices were weakly volatile, and the prices of other commodities also changed according to their respective fundamentals [3][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, with the US retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access, canceling steel - aluminum tariffs, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK car imports. Trump encouraged stock - buying, leading to a rebound in US stocks and cryptocurrencies, the US dollar index stabilizing above 100, the US bond yield rising to 4.37%, and the gold price falling by over 1%. Oil and copper prices closed higher [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rose with reduced trading volume, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to 1.32 trillion. The ChiNext and small - cap stocks performed well, and sectors such as military and optical modules led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered the decline since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April. In the bond market, after the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the money market became looser, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Attention should be paid to April's foreign trade, financial, and price data [2]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures tumbled 2.40% to $3310 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures edged down 0.57% to $32.6 per ounce. The trade agreement between the US and the UK reduced the appeal of gold as a safe - haven asset. If the Sino - US trade talks reach an agreement, the gold price may face further downward pressure [3]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper soared overnight. The spot market trading was light, and the LME inventory decreased to 194,000 tons. The first - quarter copper production of First Quantum decreased by 10.7% quarter - on - quarter. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum closed at 19,510 yuan per ton, down 0.69%. LME aluminum rose 0.17%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 16,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 9,000 tons. The market sentiment was relieved by the US - UK trade agreement. The aluminum price is expected to remain weakly volatile due to consumption concerns [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the alumina futures main contract rose 3.25% to 2794 yuan per ton. Negative news about new capacity led to a small rebound in alumina prices, but the sustainability and height of the rebound are expected to be limited [9]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc first rose and then declined, and LME zinc closed up. Recently, imported zinc ingots have flowed in, and with the approaching end of the consumption peak season, the zinc price is under pressure, and short positions can be held against the 10 - day moving average [10][11]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead fluctuated narrowly, and LME lead also had a narrow - range fluctuation. The social inventory increased. Some lead smelters plan to conduct maintenance, and the supply reduction provides support. The lead price is expected to move sideways in the short term [12][14]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin first rose and then declined, and LME tin had a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve slightly, and the consumption is stable. The tin price is expected to fluctuate [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the industrial silicon main contract trended downwards. The supply side has limited expansion power, and the demand side is weak. The social inventory remains at 600,000 tons, and the industrial silicon price is expected to continue to decline in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the lithium carbonate price fluctuated widely, and the spot price fell. The short - selling sentiment subsided after the price failed to break through. The downstream purchasing is weak, and the basis correction risk has materialized. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price fluctuated widely. The macro - level still has tariff risks, and the downstream replenishment willingness is weak after the holiday. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate [20]. Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil trended strongly. The false news of Kazakhstan's production cut and geopolitical conflicts co - existed. The long - term downward pressure on oil prices comes from OPEC +'s continuous large - scale production increase. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [21]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures declined. The supply of the five major steel products decreased, the inventory increased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The steel price is expected to weaken due to weak supply and demand [22][23]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated. Downstream steel mills cut production, and the supply is relatively loose. The iron ore price is expected to trend weakly [24]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract declined. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the soybean harvest forecast. The double - meal prices are expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [25]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 09 contract declined. The BIMP - EAGA Commercial Committee plans to strengthen the quality monitoring of crude palm oil. The palm oil price is expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [26][27].

光大理解，当前关税仅冲击软性指标，尚未损伤硬性数据，美联储势必要对货币政策保持鹰派口径，捍 卫美联储独立性，方能稳定通胀预期。但是，鲍威尔连续在3月和5月FOMC会议后表态，关税对通胀 是"暂时的"冲击，其实也暗含了其在"滞"与"胀"中间，其更加关注通胀一次性抬升后，对于经济和就业 数据的冲击。 年内来看，预计美联储依然存在2-3次的降息空间，重要的触发因素包括消费和就业数据快速恶化、美 国企业债券出现尾部风险、债务上限通过后财政部开启集中发行美债，阶段性放大美债供给压力，或均 需要美联储做出行动予以配合。 风险提示：美国通胀上行速度超预期，经济下行速度超预期，国际贸易冲突加剧。 智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研究报告称，美联储第三次暂停降息，声明强调经济面临更大的不确 定性，基本符合市场预期。鲍威尔连续在3月和5月FOMC会议后的表态暗含了其更加关注通胀一次性抬 升后，对于经济和就业数据的冲击。年内来看，预计美联储依然存在2-3次的降息空间，重要的触发因 素包括消费和就业数据快速恶化、美国企业债券出现尾部风险、债务上限通过后财政部开启集中发行美 债，阶段性放大美债供给压力，或均需要美联储做出行动予以配合。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周四，三大指数上涨。特朗普8日在白宫宣布，美国与英国达成一项新的贸易协 议，部分撤回特定领域的关税，进一步扩大双方产品的市场准入。根据白宫发布的文件，每年从英国出 口到美国的前10万辆汽车将按照10%的额外关税税率征税，超过部分则按25%的额外关税税率征税。英 国将削减或者取消非关税壁垒，对美国牛肉、乙醇、谷物等产品及一些工业产品扩大市场准入。英国政 府当天在官网发表声明说，英国出口至美国的钢铝产品的关税将被取消。英国进口到美国的汽车关税将 由现在的27.5%下调至10%。此外，在一定配额内，英国的农产品出口美国也将实行零关税。英国将把 自美国进口的乙醇的关税降至零。此外，白宫方面强调，美国此前对贸易伙伴加征的10%所谓"对等关 税"将继续保留。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨254.48点，涨幅为0.62%，报41368.45点；纳指涨189.98点，涨幅为1.07%， 报17928.14点；标普500指数涨32.66点，涨幅为0.58%，报5663.94点。加密货币概念股领涨大市，嘉楠 科技(CAN.US)涨近9%，Robinhood(HOOD.US)涨8%，Strategy(MSTR.US ...