瑞典北欧斯安银行：日本政坛不稳定性加剧，高额债务下的财政压力增加 巴克莱：解雇鲍威尔或适得其反，美联储独立性对货币政策走向至关重要 【机构分析】 瑞典北欧斯安银行首席经济学家Robert Bergqvist在报告中指出，日本执政联盟在周日参议院选举中的重 大失利，将加剧本已紧张的美日关系。在美日关系紧绷的背景下，此次败选将进一步放大日本政坛的不 稳定性。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，日本政府债务到2025年将达GDP的235%。日本政界人 士仍需兑现竞选时承诺的财政刺激措施。这意味着即使面临高额债务，日本政府也面临着实施财政刺激 以满足选民期望的压力。 巴克莱分析指出，解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔并不会促使联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）更快地进行降 息。实际上，这种行为可能会导致相反的效果。如果市场开始质疑美联储的独立性，这可能导致通胀预 期上升以及长期利率（收益率）的攀升。这样的市场反应可能会迫使FOMC采取更为保守的态度，甚至 有可能延长维持现有利率的时间，或者在必要时重启加息以应对潜在的通胀压力。美联储即使任命了一 位新的美联储主席，这位新主席也很难单方面改变货币政策的方向。任何货币政策的变化都需要得 ...

金十数据7月21日讯，欧洲央行周一公布的调查显示，欧元区企业虽对增长前景保持乐观，但盈利普遍 承压，部分归因于贸易紧张局势。尽管期待已久的经济复苏尚未实现，导致欧元区近年增长乏力，但企 业对未来好转的信心使就业水平维持高位。欧洲央行《企业融资渠道季度调查》显示，8%的企业报告 过去三个月营业额增长，23%对下一季度发展持乐观态度。然而企业盈利持续恶化，中小企业受影响面 尤为广泛。"多数企业表示在一定程度上受到贸易摩擦冲击，其中对美出口企业和制造业企业受影响最 深，"欧洲央行补充称。约30%企业担忧供应链延迟或短缺问题，并表示需寻找替代供应商。尽管长期 通胀预期维持不变，企业已将未来一年的价格增长预期从2.9%下调至2.5%。 欧洲央行调查：企业信心犹存但盈利恶化 贸易摩擦影响显现 ...

智通财经7月21日电，欧洲央行调查显示，企业对未来一年通胀预期从2.9%降至2.5%，三年及五年通胀 预期维持在3.0%不变。 ...

欧洲央行调查：企业对未来一年通胀预期从2.9%降至2.5%，三年及五年通胀预期维持在3.0%不变。 ...

本周二（7月22日）晚20:30鲍威尔将会在一场会议上致欢迎辞，随后是美联储理事在周三凌晨讲话；预计 本周潜在更大的变化，在于美联储"一把手"替换问题，若提前提名"鸽派"人士继任，或将引导市场形成更 加宽松的货币政策预期，这无疑将为贵金属市场注入新的上涨动力。 当前黄金处于"政策不确定性+地缘风险+通胀预期"的多重影响中，"黄毛普"在关税政策上的反复无常、地 缘局势博弈日益复杂、美联储降息时点的临近，都使得黄金价剧烈波动。金价若想要突破当前震荡区间， 走出明确的方向，则还需等待更多矛盾激化以及经济基本面的进一步确认。 国际金价本周受全球贸易局势、美元反弹及美联储降息预期等多重因素交织影响，毫无意外的在区间震荡 节奏中以小阴收跌，录得近三周首次收跌。回看今年的黄金，涨麻了，也跌麻了。看着很红火，但事实上 只有在6月28日这天涨了一天而已。资本不是傻子，市场也很冷静。这充分证明了市场对黄金的态度，有 力挺，也有分歧。 本周风险数据事件预警！ 所谓一个靠谱的人，凡事有交代，件件有着落，事事有回音，兴言一直致力于市场，唯有坚持写出对投资 者有用的分析，少错一单，那么我相信日久见方能见人心！ 责任编辑：赵兴言 【以上观 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Gold prices are in short - term consolidation, and the upward trend remains unchanged. The short - term is in a sideways accumulation phase, and the medium - term will maintain a volatile upward trend [2][8] - Due to the decrease in inflation expectations, the possibility of a rate cut at the end of this year and comprehensive rate cuts next year are high, and the weakening of the US dollar will support gold prices [4] - The overall economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic, and the uncertainty of the economy and policies will also affect the gold market [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Gold Price Performance - Last week, the New York gold price closed at $3356 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price closed at around 778 yuan per gram [3] US Economic Data - In June, the US CPI rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, the highest since February. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year. The PPI data was weak, with a year - on - year increase of 2.3% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The core PPI year - on - year increase was 2.6%. Inflation expectations have decreased [4] Fed's Economic Outlook - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has slightly expanded, and the overall economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Recruitment is cautious, and price pressures are emerging [5][6] Market Events - Trump's statement about firing Powell and then denying it caused market fluctuations. Whether to replace Powell has an impact on the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico also adds uncertainty [7][8]

巴克莱：解雇鲍威尔恐将适得其反 金十数据7月21日讯，巴克莱利率策略团队在最新报告中警告，解雇美联储主席鲍威尔非但不会加速 FOMC降息进程，反而可能引发政策反噬。报告指出："若市场质疑美联储独立性导致通胀预期升温、 长期收益率攀升，FOMC甚至可能延长按兵不动周期或重启加息。"策略师认为，即便任命新美联储主 席也难以实质性放宽货币政策，因其仍需与其他11位FOMC票委达成共识。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,356 to $3,361 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.22% to 0.10% [1][2] - Recent economic data, including strong retail sales (+0.6%) and unemployment claims (221,000), have created a tug-of-war in the gold market, balancing short-term economic strength against long-term inflation concerns [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has advised against attempting to dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman, indicating potential for two interest rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials are divided on interest rate policy, with some advocating for a rate cut while others emphasize the importance of maintaining a restrictive stance [2] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including consumer confidence and inflation expectations, which will influence gold prices [2] - Despite a recent decline in the dollar, expectations for delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are limiting further declines in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Gold ETF funds have seen a recent increase of 0.37%, with significant net inflows of 131 million yuan over the past four days [3] - The performance of gold prices is expected to stabilize as U.S. debt pressures ease, with traditional frameworks of real interest rates driving gold price fluctuations [4] - Recent economic indicators, such as the June CPI data and manufacturing indices, suggest resilience in the U.S. economy, which may limit upward trends in gold prices [4] Group 4 - Gold ETFs and related funds offer low-cost, diversified investment options, allowing for T+0 trading and serving as a hedge against economic downturns [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fed candidates have mentioned a potential rate cut in July, leading to a slight increase in gold and silver prices. The expectation of a Fed rate cut remains high, providing support for precious metal prices. The upcoming stable - growth work plans for key industries such as automobiles, steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have also contributed to the rise in non - ferrous metal prices, which in turn has affected gold and silver prices [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Silver prices generally follow gold prices, but are more affected by tariff concerns [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The Fed candidates' mention of a July rate cut led to a 0.30% increase in COMEX gold futures to $3355.50 per ounce. The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield fell 3.98 basis points to 4.4095%, and the dollar index dropped 0.18% to 98.46. The gold futures price was 777.02, the spot price was 772.6, with a basis of - 4.42 (spot at a discount to futures). Gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 15 kilograms to 28857 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [4]. - **Silver**: The Fed candidates' mention of a July rate cut led to a 0.32% increase in COMEX silver futures to $38.43 per ounce. The silver futures price was 9273, the spot price was 9225, with a basis of - 48 (spot at a discount to futures). The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 6009 kilograms to 1211076 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut remains high, and the upcoming stable - growth work plans for key industries will support gold prices. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to 0.9 yuan per gram [4]. - **Silver**: The silver price followed the increase in non - ferrous metal prices. The Shanghai silver premium remained at around 350 yuan per kilogram. The high expectation of a rate cut provided support for silver prices [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" series of themed news. At 22:00, the U.S. June Conference Board Leading Index will be released [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental factors are mixed. The expectation of a Fed rate cut and the upcoming industry stable - growth plans are positive factors, while the spot discount to futures and the decrease in warehouse receipts are negative factors [4]. - **Silver**: The fundamental factors are also mixed. The expectation of a rate cut and the increase in non - ferrous metal prices are positive, while the spot discount to futures is negative [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.91% to 200,675, the short positions increased by 0.90% to 60,609, and the net position increased by 0.92% to 140,066 [4][29]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 4.26% to 488,153, the short positions increased by 6.58% to 378,056, and the net position decreased by 2.99% to 110,097 [5][30].

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 779.52 CNY per gram, with a short-term bullish trend indicated by a 0.54% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was 780.24 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 778.08 CNY per gram [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 783 CNY per gram and 813 CNY per gram, with important support levels between 770 CNY per gram and 810 CNY per gram [2] Group 2 - A recent Goldman Sachs study indicates that leadership changes in global central banks often lead to inflation rates rising by an additional 1-2 percentage points within two years, without benefiting economic growth [2] - The case of Turkey in 2021 illustrates this, where a change in central bank leadership led to a significant increase in inflation from 15% to 85% [2] - Market inflation expectations are rising, with the three to four-year expected inflation rate based on inflation-protected securities increasing from 2.15% at the end of June to 2.36% [2]