Group 1 - The US dollar index fell below 100, with a decline of 0.3% to 99.771 after failing to break through 100.360, indicating a cautious risk sentiment due to rising layoff announcements and declining US Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield dropped over 6 basis points to 4.089%, while the 2-year and 30-year yields fell to 3.566% and 4.686%, respectively, reflecting a response to the deteriorating labor market outlook [1] - The implied probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December increased from 62% to 69%, reversing some hawkish repricing that occurred after the Fed's November statement [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis of the US dollar index indicates a confirmed reversal below the 200-day moving average, which has significantly changed market sentiment towards the dollar [2] - If the current selling pressure continues, the dollar index may test the support level at 99.463, which is the last line of defense before the 50-day moving average at 99.359 [2] - Downside risks remain high due to weak labor data, declining yields, and strong performance in currency crosses, unless new data or comments from the Federal Reserve alter expectations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of precious metals, including gold and silver. It points out that there are fluctuations in the prices of COMEX gold and silver futures, as well as Shanghai gold and silver. The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, the change of ETF holdings, and the performance of the US economic data. The short - term trend of gold and silver is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see. [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - COMEX gold futures fell 0.20% to $3984.8 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.37% to $47.85 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.06% to 915.24 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.11% to 11359 yuan per kilogram. [1] Important Information - As of November 6, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 1.72 tons to 1040.35 tons, while the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 36.68 tons to 15114.03 tons. [1] - In October, global gold ETFs had five consecutive months of capital inflows, and the average daily trading volume reached a record high. [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.6%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 29.4%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.2%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 17.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 28.2%. [1] Market Logic - On October 29, the Fed cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, in line with market expectations. But Powell's hawkish speech reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut. [1] - The US government shutdown continued, breaking the historical record. On November 7, the US dollar index fell to 99.70. [1] - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding the expected increase of 30,000. The US ISM services PMI in October was 52.4, rebounding more than expected. [1] - The US NASDAQ index led the decline in overnight US stocks, the volatility of the financial market increased, and the night - session prices of Shanghai gold and silver both fell slightly. [1] Trading Strategy - After the short - term peaks of gold and silver were confirmed, last week COMEX gold broke below $4000 per ounce and then rebounded back above $4000. On Tuesday this week, it broke below 4000 again. In the short - term, it may fluctuate around 4000, and it is recommended to wait and see. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index decreased by 0.45% to 99.70, leading to a rise in most non-US currencies, indicating a shift in currency dynamics in the foreign exchange market [1]. Currency Movements - The euro appreciated by 0.48% against the US dollar, reaching 1.1548 [1]. - The British pound increased by 0.67% against the US dollar, reaching 1.3139 [1]. - The Australian dollar fell by 0.41% against the US dollar, settling at 0.6480 [1]. - The US dollar rose slightly by 0.07% against the Canadian dollar, reaching 1.4119 [1]. - The US dollar decreased by 0.49% against the Swiss franc, reaching 0.8062 [1].

新华财经纽约11月6日电美元指数6日下跌。 （文章来源：新华社） 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1544美元，高于前一交易日的1.1486美元；1英镑兑换1.3132美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3047美元。 1美元兑换153.14日元，低于前一交易日的154.11日元；1美元兑换0.8066瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8104瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.4113加元，与前一交易日基本持平；1美元兑换9.5682瑞典克朗，高于前 一交易日的9.5654瑞典克朗。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.47%，在汇市尾市收于99.735。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周四（11月6日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数下跌0.51%，刷新日低至99.671点，"跳空低 开"至100.105点（形成日内顶部）之后，全天持续震荡下挫，北京时间21:30发布美国就业数据之后跌至 99.735点、随后一度收窄跌幅短线形成V形走势。彭博美元指数跌0.30%，报1221.46点，全天处于持续 的下跌状态，整体交投区间为1225.04-1220.86点。 ...

行业 铜期货日报 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜探底回升，日内沪铜主力最低跌至 84900，总持仓下降 4052，美元指数在 100 上方运行施压铜价，同时隔夜海外股市大跌进一步加大市场抛售情绪，铜价回到 10 月中旬震荡区间。日内现货跌 1255 至 85335，现货升水涨 25，下游短期集中 补库。现货进口亏损缩窄至 520 附近，LME0-3contango 结构扩大至 30.4 ...

美元指数技术分析 技术指标方面，RSI接近45显示偏弱动能，而日线均线（20日与50日均线）呈现上升放缓后趋平，意味 着短期内多空力量均衡，缺乏明显方向性。 若DXY有效跌破100.00支撑，将打开下行空间，可能回探99.50–99.30区域；若反弹并突破101.00–101.20 阻力区，则可能短线回升至101.50。 整体来看，美元指数在日线仍呈震荡偏弱格局，需关注美联储发言及政府关门进展对市场的即时影响。 周四（11月6日）美元指数在欧盘中下跌至99.925美元承压的主要原因是美国联邦政府关门已超过一个 月，成为历史上最长的一次。 自10月1日以来，由于国会未能就财政预算达成一致，政府停摆持续存在，财政和经济的不确定性加大 了美元的下行压力。参议院在周四没有安排就众议院已通过的复工法案进行投票，此前该法案已连续14 次未能推进。 官方就业数据因政府关门延迟发布的背景下，市场将目光转向ADP私营部门就业数据。10月美国私人部 门新增就业42,000个岗位，明显好于前值修正后的减少29,000个，也高于市场预期的25,000个。 这一数据为美元提供了一定支撑，同时显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。联储方面，在连续两次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar index, surpassing the 100 mark, is attributed to a combination of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and external factors such as tightening dollar liquidity and the depreciation of non-US currencies, particularly the Japanese yen [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The dollar index's rise since mid-September is linked to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance during the October meeting, which emphasized economic resilience and persistent inflation risks, leading to a decline in rate cut expectations [1][2]. - Analysts note that the current economic environment differs significantly from previous periods, with a lack of clear economic data making the market more susceptible to the Fed's hawkish comments [2][3]. Group 2: Currency Movements and External Influences - The depreciation of the Japanese yen, influenced by the election of Fumio Kishida as Japan's Prime Minister and subsequent fiscal and monetary easing, has contributed to the dollar's strength [2]. - The widening yield spread between US and Japanese bonds following the Fed's meeting has also facilitated carry trades, further supporting the dollar's rise [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for the Dollar - Analysts suggest that while the dollar may have short-term upward potential, the current situation does not indicate a new long-term appreciation cycle for the dollar [3]. - Market expectations for the Fed's December meeting indicate a probability of maintaining interest rates, which could influence the dollar's performance depending on employment data and inflation trends [3]. - The potential for increased dollar supply due to the Fed's decision to halt balance sheet reduction could weaken the dollar's upward momentum [3]. Group 4: External Economic Conditions - Japan's high core inflation may provide the Bank of Japan with room to raise interest rates, which could limit the extent of the dollar's strength [4].

Group 1 - The US dollar index reported at 100.16, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% [1] - The exchange rate for one US dollar is approximately 7.145 Chinese yuan [1] - The offshore Chinese yuan is trading at about 7.1279 per US dollar [3] Group 2 - The exchange rate for one Australian dollar is approximately 0.6508 US dollars [5] - One euro is equivalent to about 8.1962 yuan [5] - The forecast indicates that the US dollar may continue to weaken in the fourth quarter, influenced by global economic data and monetary policy adjustments [7]

Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - On November 4, the dollar index broke through the 100-point mark, reaching its highest level since August 2025[2] - The increase in the dollar index is supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields, which increased from approximately 4.0% to around 4.1%[3] - The market's expectation for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve dropped from 92% to 69% following comments from Fed Chair Powell[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in August, significantly above the market expectation of 0.2%[5] - The consumer confidence index for October was reported at 53.6, slightly down from 55.1 in September but up from a low of 52.2 in Q2[5] - The manufacturing PMI for October was recorded at 48.7, with new orders showing an upward trend, indicating a potential recovery in domestic demand[5] Group 3: External Factors Influencing the Dollar - Political instability in Japan and Europe has weakened the yen and euro, contributing to the dollar's strength[8] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to tighter liquidity conditions, with bank reserves dropping to $2.8 trillion, the lowest level in 2025[11] - The overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) surged to 4.22% on October 31, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The dollar index is expected to fluctuate around the 100-point mark in Q4 2025, influenced by various factors including government reopening and judicial decisions on tariffs[19] - The potential appointment of a new Fed Chair may lean towards dovish signals, which could lead to a decline in the dollar index[19] - The outcome of the U.S. Supreme Court hearing on tariffs could significantly impact market expectations and the dollar's trajectory[20]