Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that global financial conditions have improved due to some trade agreements that have lowered average tariffs [1] Group 1 - The reduction in average tariffs has contributed to better global financial conditions [1]

Core Views - This week, the US is conducting trade negotiations with multiple countries, and Indonesia has proposed B50 again [1] - There are hot - spot reviews of domestic and foreign protein meal and oil futures markets, including soybean - rapeseed meal and oil, palm - based oil, and comprehensive aspects [1] Soybean - Rapeseed Meal and Oil - As of the week of July 15, about 7% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 9% in the previous week and 5% in the same period last year [2] Palm - Based Oil - Indonesia is researching to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and relevant research is expected to be completed by the end of the year. As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters [3] - Malaysia's August crude palm oil reference price is 3,864.12 ringgit per ton (about $910.28), a significant increase from July's 3,730.48 ringgit/ton, and the export tax will be raised from 8.5% in July to 9% [3] Comprehensive - On July 16, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Indonesia. Indonesia will increase purchases of US aircraft, energy (worth $15 billion) and agricultural products (worth $4.5 billion), and the US will reduce the tariff rate from the threatened 32% to 19%. The US may maintain the tariff rate set for Japan and may reach a trade agreement with India [4] - Indonesia is still negotiating the details of the trade agreement with the US. It has requested the US to exempt tariffs on cocoa, rubber, crude palm oil and nickel. All imported US goods except alcohol and pork will enjoy zero - tariff, and some US goods will be exempt from import quota regulations [5]

市场消息：巴基斯坦财政部长赴美促签贸易协议。 ...

Group 1 - The UK and India are expected to announce a trade agreement next week, which will include sectors such as whisky, electric vehicles, and textiles [1]

贸易协议仍在可能的范畴内。 美国财长贝森特：好协议比仓促达成协议更重要。 ...

美国财长贝森特：日本的贸易协议仍处于"可能性范围内"。 ...

Core Points - The trade agreement between Indonesia and the United States includes arrangements for simplifying import licenses and protecting intellectual property [1]

Group 1 - The Dutch Finance Minister stated that the EU would be forced to retaliate if no trade agreement is reached with the United States [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. For example, the potential change in the 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue between the US and China is worth attention [7]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to move within a range. For instance, gold is expected to oscillate upward, while tin's price is weakening [14][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fentanyl Issue - Trump believes China will soon sentence fentanyl traffickers to death and is optimistic about reaching an agreement on illegal drugs with China. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl problem is the US's own issue, and the US's imposition of tariffs on fentanyl has damaged Sino - US cooperation in the anti - drug field. The 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue remains in effect, and whether it will change is worthy of attention [7]. 3.2 Commodity Recommendations by the Director - **Bean Meal**: Since mid - July, the domestic bean meal futures have stopped falling earlier than US soybeans and broken through the technical resistance level. The reasons are the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market and the low - valuation advantage of bean meal. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, there are no additional negative impacts. Once the US soybean price recovers, the bean meal price will break through. After the current rally, there is a risk of a pullback, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals such as the trade agreement, US soybean weather, and the August USDA report [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, the supply and demand of the caustic soda market have not changed much, with sufficient supply and increased shipments to major downstream industries. The spot has no upward momentum, and the futures have been weak in the past two days. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, and new capacity of 1.1 million tons may be added in July - August. The new capacity pressure is basically digested by exports. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is strongly supported by the weak liquid chlorine. It is recommended to participate in the 10 - 1 spread arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][18][23]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The good US economic data supports the copper price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][26][29]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to move within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][30]. - **Lead**: The downside may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][32][33]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of - 1 [14][35][39]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly with a trend intensity of 1, and cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum with a trend intensity of 0 [14][40][42]. - **Nickel**: The news affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel is in a game between reality and macro factors, and the steel price oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [14][43][47]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and the short - term trend may be strong. The trend intensity is 1 [14][48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. Polysilicon's futures may rise and then fall, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][51][55]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The steel procurement sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 0 [14][63][65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Coking coal oscillates widely, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. The trend intensity is 0 [14][70][73]. - **Log**: It oscillates widely [74].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate upward, while silver is predicted to break through and rise [2][5] - Copper prices are supported by good US economic data [2][13] - Zinc is expected to operate within a range [2][17] - The downside of lead prices may be limited [2][19] - Tin prices are weakening [2][22] - Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in aluminum inventory; alumina is expected to oscillate strongly; cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum [2][27] - Nickel is affected by news and its fundamentals are under pressure; stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][30] - Due to supply - side disturbances, the short - term trend of lithium carbonate may be strong [2][35] - For industrial silicon, pay attention to market sentiment due to warehouse receipt accumulation; the polycrystalline silicon market may rise and then fall [2][39] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly supported by macro expectations [2][43] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will oscillate widely due to strong market sentiment [2][46] - Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy will oscillate widely due to strong steel procurement sentiment [2][50] - Coke has completed the first round of price increase and will oscillate widely; coking coal will oscillate widely [2][24][53] - The daily consumption of thermal coal is recovering, and its price will stabilize with oscillations [2][57] - Logs will oscillate widely [2][61] - Para - xylene and PTA will fluctuate following costs; MEG has low inventory, and positive spreads can be set up when the monthly spread is low [2][65] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Core View**: Gold to oscillate upward, silver to break through and rise [2][5] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of gold and silver futures and spot markets are provided. The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1 [6] - **News**: Trump's government plans to visit the Fed; Fed Governor Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July; US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month [6][8][9] Copper - **Core View**: US economic data supports copper prices [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of copper futures and spot markets are provided. China's copper imports in June showed different trends [14] - **News**: US retail sales are strong, and the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased; China's copper imports in June are released [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [16] Zinc - **Core View**: Zinc will operate within a range [2][17] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of zinc futures and spot markets are provided [17] - **News**: Potential Fed Chairman candidate Warsh supports Trump's pressure on the Fed; Fed Governor Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [17] Lead - **Core View**: The downside of lead prices may be limited [2][19] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of lead futures and spot markets are provided [19] - **News**: Similar to zinc news [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [20] Tin - **Core View**: Tin prices are weakening [2][22] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of tin futures and spot markets are provided [23] - **News**: Similar to gold and silver news [24] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [26] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core View**: Pay attention to aluminum inventory changes; alumina to oscillate strongly; cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum [2][27] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot markets are provided [27] - **News**: Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's independence is a "myth", and the US stock market may rise under the expectation of rate cuts; the US - India agreement is close to being reached [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum: 0; Alumina: 1; Cast Aluminum Alloy: 0 [29] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Core View**: Nickel is affected by news and its fundamentals are under pressure; stainless steel prices will oscillate [2][30] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot markets are provided [30] - **News**: Multiple events in the nickel industry, such as project production, factory shutdowns, and production recoveries [31][32] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [34] Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Due to supply - side disturbances, the short - term trend of lithium carbonate may be strong [2][35] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of lithium carbonate futures and spot markets are provided [35] - **News**: SMM's lithium carbonate index price increased; Zangge Lithium Industry stopped production; this week's lithium carbonate production increased, and inventory also increased [36][37] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [37] Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Core View**: For industrial silicon, pay attention to market sentiment due to warehouse receipt accumulation; the polycrystalline silicon market may rise and then fall [2][39] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon futures and spot markets are provided [39] - **News**: Bangjie Co., Ltd. terminated a photovoltaic project [39][40] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial Silicon: 0; Polycrystalline Silicon: 0 [42] Iron Ore - **Core View**: Iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly supported by macro expectations [2][43] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of iron ore futures and spot markets are provided [43] - **News**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held [43] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [43] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Core View**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will oscillate widely due to strong market sentiment [2][46] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are provided [46] - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and export data are released; June's financial data is announced [47][48] - **Trend Intensity**: Rebar: 1; Hot - Rolled Coil: 1 [47] Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy - **Core View**: Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy will oscillate widely due to strong steel procurement sentiment [2][50] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy futures and spot markets are provided [50] - **News**: Spot prices and steel procurement prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are announced; steel production data is released [51][52] - **Trend Intensity**: Silicon Ferroalloy: 0; Manganese Ferroalloy: 0 [52] Coke and Coking Coal - **Core View**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and will oscillate widely; coking coal will oscillate widely [2][24][53] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of coke and coking coal futures and spot markets are provided [53] - **News**: Northern port coking coal quotes, CCI metallurgical coal index, and position changes are announced [53][54][55] - **Trend Intensity**: Coke: 0; Coking Coal: 1 [55] Thermal Coal - **Core View**: The daily consumption of thermal coal is recovering, and its price will stabilize with oscillations [2][57] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's trading situation of thermal coal futures, southern port and domestic origin quotes, and position changes are provided [58][59] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [60] Logs - **Core View**: Logs will oscillate widely [2][61] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and spot market prices of log futures are provided [62] - **News**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held [64] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [64] Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Core View**: Para - xylene and PTA will fluctuate following costs; MEG has low inventory, and positive spreads can be set up when the monthly spread is low [2][65] - No specific fundamentals and news are provided for these three products in the content