Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first quarterly negative growth since 2022, significantly lower than the 2.4% growth in Q4 2024 [3] - However, the actual GDP showed a year-on-year growth of 2% after seasonal adjustments, indicating that the economic fundamentals have not deteriorated significantly [3] Trade and Imports - A major factor contributing to the economic slowdown was a significant increase in imports, which rose by 50.9% in Q1 as businesses sought to avoid tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, leading to a trade deficit of $318.5 billion [4] - The "net exports" negatively impacted GDP by 4.83 percentage points, the largest single-quarter drag since 1947 [4] Domestic Demand - Domestic consumption and investment remained strong, with personal consumption expenditures increasing by 1.8% year-on-year, contributing 1.21 percentage points to economic growth [5] - Core consumption, excluding energy and food, grew by 3.5%, demonstrating resilience in consumer spending [5] - Private investment also saw a counter-cyclical growth, with non-residential investment increasing by 9.8%, and equipment investment surging by 22.5%, driven by computers and industrial equipment [5] Inflation and Employment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed improvement, decreasing from 3.0% at the beginning of the year to 2.4% in Q1, primarily due to falling energy prices [6] - Employment figures remained stable, with an average monthly increase of 174,000 non-farm jobs and an unemployment rate steady between 4.0% and 4.2% [6] Future Outlook - If trade negotiations with China and other countries progress positively in Q2, the negative impact of imports on the economy may significantly diminish, potentially leading to a strong economic rebound [7]

Group 1: Important Data Releases - The US April CPI data will be released on Tuesday, followed by the April PPI and retail sales data, as well as the Eurozone and UK Q1 GDP on Thursday. China's April financial data will be released next week at an unspecified time [1] Group 2: Earnings Reports - Key companies reporting earnings next week include JD.com, SoftBank, and Honda on Tuesday; Tencent, Sony, and Porsche on Wednesday; and Alibaba, NetEase, Beike, and Geely on Thursday [1] Group 3: A-Share Market Developments - A total of 28 companies in the A-share market will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, with a total market value of 18.63 billion yuan. The top three companies by unlock value are Guojin Securities, Qiangrui Technology, and Jiangsu Huachen, valued at 4.166 billion yuan, 3.243 billion yuan, and 2.644 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 4: New Stock Listings - Tian Gong Co., Ltd. will be listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange on May 13, focusing on the research, production, and sales of titanium and titanium alloy materials [1] Group 5: Central Bank Operations - The central bank will have 836.1 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with specific maturities of 0 billion, 405.0 billion, 195.5 billion, 158.6 billion, and 77.0 billion yuan from Monday to Friday. Additionally, 125.0 billion yuan in MLF will mature on Thursday [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the short-term interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while acknowledging increased uncertainty in the economic outlook due to high unemployment and inflation risks [1] - The first quarter saw a significant 41.3% surge in imports, negatively impacting GDP growth, with net exports contributing to a -4.83% growth rate [2] - Many companies have suspended guidance on second-quarter revenue forecasts, indicating a more pessimistic view of the economy compared to Federal Reserve officials [2][3] Group 2 - The second quarter's GDP is critical, with a potential shift from positive to negative contributions from inventory, increasing the likelihood of economic contraction [3] - Employment figures appear strong, but there are concerns about the reliability of the data, as the actual experience of the public may differ from reported statistics [3][4] - The retail sector is facing challenges with inventory levels, as many businesses only have enough stock to last two months, raising concerns about inflation rebounding [5] Group 3 - The U.S. government’s trade negotiations are crucial, with recent agreements being largely symbolic and insufficient to address the urgent economic issues [5][6] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will provide early insights into the impact of new tariffs on price trends [6]

金十数据5月8日讯，美国3月批发库存增幅略低于最初估计，因电器、木材、服装和农产品库存减少。 数据显示，美国3月批发库存月率终值增长0.4%，低于上月0.5%的预期增幅。库存是GDP的重要组成部 分，2月份增长0.5%，3月份同比增长2.2%。企业在第一季度提前进口，试图避免特朗普的全面关税， 导致巨额贸易逆差。大部分进口最终都变成了库存。美国政府上周公布的第一季GDP初值预估显示，企 业库存折合成年率增加1401亿美元，10-12月当季仅增加89亿美元。库存对GDP的贡献为2.25个百分 点，为2021年第四季度以来最大。 美国3月份批发库存终值略有下降 ...

英国央行行长贝利：GDP曾一度低迷，随后在年内有所回升。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US economy** and its labor market dynamics, influenced by recent **tariff policies** and their implications on economic activity and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Labor Market Resilience**: Nonfarm payroll employment increased by **177k** in April, surpassing expectations, indicating a robust labor market despite tariff concerns [2][35] 2. **Unemployment Rates**: The unemployment rate remained steady at **4.2%**, with underemployment at **7.8%**, suggesting stability in labor supply and demand [2][35] 3. **GDP Performance**: The advance estimate for Q1 showed a **0.3% q/q saar decline** in real GDP, following a **2.4% q/q saar gain** in Q4, attributed to strong domestic spending but offset by increased imports [13][35] 4. **Inflation and Cost Pressures**: There are signs of cost-push inflation pressures due to supply chain disruptions and tariff impacts, with expectations of rising inflation into the summer months [4][20] 5. **Fed Rate Cut Timing**: The anticipated timing for the next Fed rate cut has been pushed back to **July**, as current labor market data does not indicate an urgent need for action [4][8][26] 6. **Job Cuts and Hiring Trends**: Despite solid job gains, there are indications of potential job cuts, with **600k** job cuts announced in 2025, nearly double the previous year, particularly in the government sector [6][25] 7. **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: Consumer spending showed a **1.8% q/q saar increase** in Q1, driven by a surge in stockbuilding and a **22.5% q/q saar jump** in equipment investment, reflecting a frontrunning dynamic ahead of tariffs [13][35] 8. **Supply Chain Challenges**: The ISM manufacturing PMI slightly declined to **48.7**, indicating ongoing supply chain pressures and production disruptions, particularly related to tariffs [20][35] Additional Important Insights 1. **Mixed Economic Signals**: The data flow presents mixed signals, with some indicators showing resilience while others point to potential weaknesses, particularly in job openings which fell to a four-year low of **7.2 million** [3][5] 2. **Consumer Confidence**: The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to **86.0**, the lowest since May 2020, reflecting pessimism about future job conditions and income [34] 3. **Inventory Dynamics**: Stockbuilding is expected to delay the onset of inflation pressures, as auto dealers have not yet adjusted prices for existing stock [4][19] 4. **Future Economic Projections**: The outlook for GDP growth has been adjusted, projecting a **1.0% q/q saar gain** in Q2, followed by a downturn in H2 2025 [23][25] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the US economy, labor market dynamics, and the anticipated actions of the Federal Reserve in response to evolving economic conditions.

Group 1: Hot News - The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in Q1, with annualized inflation-adjusted GDP down 0.3%, far below the average growth rate of about 3% in the past two years. Net exports dragged GDP by nearly 5 percentage points, and consumer spending grew at only 1.8%, the weakest since mid-2023. Business equipment spending was the only bright spot, growing at an annualized rate of 22.5% [3] - In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. Non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range. High-tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand, and manufacturing enterprises focusing on domestic sales had stable production and operations [3] - The US and Ukraine jointly created the Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. The ownership and control of resources in Ukraine remain with Ukraine. The fund will be jointly managed by the two countries with a 50:50 ratio, and neither has a dominant voting right. The fund will be filled entirely by new license revenues [4] - OPEC+ announced that 8 participating countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The gradual increase may be suspended or reversed depending on market conditions [4] - US employment growth was strong in April, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 (expected 130,000), and the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.2%, indicating that the uncertainty of Trump's trade policy has not significantly affected recruitment plans [4] Group 2: Commodity Market - The capital proportions of different commodity sectors are as follows: non-metallic building materials 2.52%, precious metals 29.74%, oilseeds 12.51%, soft commodities 3.18%, non-ferrous metals 19.54%, coking coal and steel minerals 12.98%, energy 2.70%, chemicals 12.36%, grains 1.91%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.56% [5] - Key commodities to focus on include urea, crude oil, plastic, glass, and lithium carbonate [6] Group 3: Asset Performance - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major indices are as follows: Shanghai Composite Index -0.23%, 0.00%, -2.17%; SSE 50 -0.47%, 0.00%, -1.92%; CSI 300 -0.12%, 0.00%, -4.18%; CSI 500 0.48%, 0.00%, -1.64%; S&P 500 0.15%, 1.46%, -3.93%; Hang Seng Index 0.51%, 1.74%, 12.19%; Germany DAX 0.32%, 3.77%, 17.26%; Nikkei 225 0.57%, 2.18%, -7.68%; UK FTSE 100 0.37%, 1.19%, 5.18% [8] - The performance of major commodities shows different trends, such as WTI crude oil -3.69% daily, -1.63% monthly, -20.41% annually; London spot gold -0.85% daily, -1.45% monthly, 23.49% annually; LME copper -3.34% daily, 2.64% monthly, 6.65% annually [8]

首席点评：新关税担忧引发市场波澜 中国制造业与非制造业 PMI环比双降，需求端收缩显著，但生产端仍处相对高位（49.8%），新出口订 单指数下跌至44.7%，后续出口增长存疑，短期"抢出口"虽支撑货运量增1.3%，但外需疲态已显现。内 需韧性分化，订单指数微降2.3%，消费品行业PMI仅降0.6%，消费支撑力较强。美国一季度GDP年化下 降0.3%，不过自3月市场已经对一季度的经济萎缩有一定心理准备。4月的非农数据显示美国就业市场 仍然强劲，此背景下5月美联储大概率继续按兵不动，同时市场对6月降息的预期有所降温。关税谈判方 面仍未有明显进展，而昨日特朗普表示要对非美国制作影片征收100%关税引发关税规模再度升级的担 忧。 重点品种： 原油 、贵金属、铜 原油： 欧佩克及其同盟八国进一步加快增产，引发对更多供应的担忧，欧美原油期货继续下跌。八个 参与国将在 2025年6月从2025年5月所需的生产水平开始实施每天41.1万桶的生产调整，这相当于三个月 的增量。欧佩克及其减产同盟国八国加速减产的决定公布后，国际油价一度下跌近5%。但是中东局势 有恶化的可能，尾盘国际油价缩窄跌幅。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡发誓要对伊朗进 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming macro environment for the bond market may be more favorable, potentially breaking the previous price range of sideways movement, with an increased likelihood of long-term government bond yields breaking downward [1][4][33] Group 1: Global Market Overview - During the May Day holiday, global stock markets performed notably well, with technology stocks leading the gains in both Hong Kong and the US markets, which in turn boosted European and other Asian stock markets [1][11] - The bond market showed divergence, with 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rising by 23 basis points and 16 basis points respectively, while Japanese bond yields decreased and German bond yields remained stable [1][11] - The US dollar index rebounded, appreciating against major currencies like the yen, euro, and pound, but depreciated against the offshore yuan [1][11] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - In April, the US PCE index grew by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations, while core PCE growth was 2.6%, indicating a further cooling of core inflation [2][12] - The US labor market remains resilient, with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, surpassing expectations of 130,000, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% [2][16] - The first quarter GDP for 2025 showed a contraction of -0.3%, significantly below the expected -0.2%, marking the lowest growth since Q1 2022 [2][21] Group 3: Domestic Bond Market Outlook - The probability of long-term government bond yields breaking downward is expected to increase, as the current tightening of funds is less likely, and any degree of easing would be viewed positively for the bond market [4][29][33] - The manufacturing PMI in China fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49.0% in April, indicating short-term economic pressure, but the long-term positive fundamentals are expected to remain intact despite trade frictions [4][29] - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations are likely to be complex, but the short-term impact on the bond market is expected to be more positive than negative [4][32][33]

印尼第一季度GDP环比-0.98%，预估为-0.90%。 印尼第一季度GDP同比+4.87%，预估为+4.92%。 ...