Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 42.96 [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the resilience of the retail market due to the expansion of home decoration subsidies and the improving channel structure, leading to a potential recovery in profit margins and operational flexibility [1]. - The "Immediate Living" and "Beautiful Countryside" initiatives are anticipated to accelerate the company's presence in the stock renovation and third- and fourth-tier markets, with a projected demand for stock renovation of approximately 11 to 12 million units per year from 2024 to 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 5% [2]. - The company is undergoing a channel transformation towards engineering distribution, maintaining a leading market share despite a decline in direct sales revenue, which is expected to stabilize in the coming years [3]. - The retail sales of construction and decoration materials reached RMB 53 billion in the first four months of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with a significant monthly increase of 9.7% in April [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are RMB 651.4 million, RMB 847.05 million, and RMB 1.09 billion respectively, indicating a CAGR of 48.7% [5]. - The company is assigned a PEG ratio of 0.75x for 2025, with a target price based on a PEG of 1.0x, reflecting the expected growth in the "Immediate Living" business and stable market share in engineering [5]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 13.203 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.07% [7]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned to capture growth opportunities in the renovation market, with its brand strength gradually being validated against competitors like Nippon Paint [2]. - The engineering business is expected to maintain its leading market share while reducing impairment risks, with accounts receivable turnover improving to 3.6 in 2024 [3]. Operational Insights - The company is actively managing costs and improving operational efficiency, with expectations for continued profit elasticity due to effective expense control measures [4]. - The average price of titanium dioxide, a key raw material, has decreased by 9.6% year-on-year, which may limit further price declines in products [4].

与中央财政首批支持的15个城市相比，本轮支持的城市虽然在补助数量、范围等方面都有扩大，但补助 额度并未发生变化，都是东部地区每个城市补助总额不超过8亿元，中部地区每个城市补助总额不超过 10亿元，西部地区每个城市补助总额不超过12亿元，直辖市每个城市补助总额不超过12亿元。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 刘诗萌 北京报道 今年4月，财政部、住建部开展了2025年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动城市的选拔，两个月后，评 审结果已经出炉。 6月4日，财政部公示2025年城市更新行动评审结果，拟支持北京、天津、唐山、包头、大连、哈尔滨、 苏州、温州、芜湖、厦门、济南、郑州、宜昌、长沙、广州、海口、宜宾、兰州、西宁、乌鲁木齐20个 城市。未来几年，中央财政计划补助超过200亿元，支持这20个城市实施城市更新行动，探索建立可持 续的城市更新机制，补齐城市基础设施的短板弱项。 2024年4月底，财政部、住建部发布《关于开展城市更新示范工作的通知》，从当年开始，中央财政以 给予定额补助的方式支持部分城市开展城市更新示范工作，首批支持了上海、南京、杭州等15个城市。 而今年是这一工作开展的第二年， ...

南都讯 记者魏凯 近日财政部公示了2025年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动评选结果，广州入围最终 名单，在未来三年内将获得最多8亿元定额补助。6月5日，市住建部门表示这笔钱将用于治水、老旧小 区整治、历史文化更新等五个方面的城市更新。 鼓励更多地方城市更新，今年中央财政支持范围扩大 根据《通知》，每年度的试点城市均由财政部会同住房城乡建设部通过竞争性选拔选出，确定部分基础 条件好、积极性高、特色突出的城市，在城市层面探索整合各类资源，探索建立资金、用地、金融等各 类要素保障机制，形成工作合力。 广州今年能获得这笔中央财政资金支持，主要还是在"老城市新活力"的城市更新项目充足、经验丰富有 关。近年来广州在城市方面保持高投入，2024年广州出台实施全国首部城中村改造条例，成功申报住建 部城中村改造专项借款项目52个、授信金额4096亿元，位居全国首位，全年完成固定资产投资1035亿 元，超额完成年度任务。 在本次项目申报中，广州以5个"活力"为聚焦点，聚力推动民生工程多点开花，力争实现"三个示范"： 创新超大城市水系统更新示范路径，构建超大城市更新改造综合示范体系，打造历史文化传承创新全国 示范样板。 自2024 ...

Core Insights - The growth rate of real estate loans in China is recovering, with a balance of 53.54 trillion yuan as of Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.04% and a quarterly increase of 619.7 billion yuan [1] - The increase in real estate loans is attributed to effective financial support for both existing and new demand, with a focus on ensuring housing delivery and urban renewal projects [1] - The real estate market is undergoing a transformation, with pressures in certain regions and a growing demand for high-quality housing, particularly in the context of upgrading old residential areas [1] Group 1: Financial Support and Loan Management - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop financing systems that align with new real estate development models, including management methods for real estate development, personal housing, and urban renewal loans [2] - There is a need for precise financial services tailored to different stakeholders and project stages, with the establishment of a project list management system for urban renewal loans [2] Group 2: Collaborative Financing and Risk Management - Real estate finance is a systemic endeavor that requires collaboration among various financing tools, including fiscal funds, structural monetary policy tools, and market-based financing models [3] - Financial support for the real estate market should adhere to market-oriented and legal principles, ensuring that financial institutions set appropriate loan terms while managing risks effectively [3]

Core Points - The Ministry of Finance announced the results of the 2025 central financial support for urban renewal actions, with Guangzhou being one of the 20 cities selected to receive support of up to 800 million yuan over the next three years [1] - The number of cities supported has increased from 15 to 20 compared to the previous year, indicating an expansion in both the scope and amount of financial support [1][2] Group 1: Financial Support and Objectives - The central financial support aims to accelerate the construction of livelihood projects, stimulate local initiatives for urban renewal, and enhance infrastructure to drive market investment and consumption [4] - The support will focus on two main directions: model project construction and mechanism development, with specific uses including urban underground pipeline upgrades, sewage treatment improvements, and the renovation of historical and old districts [2][3] Group 2: Urban Renewal Mechanism and Innovation - The 2025 support expands to include super-large cities and major cities along key river basins, with a more flexible approach to funding usage, encouraging innovative project approval systems and regulatory frameworks [3] - The funding encourages cities to establish mechanisms for better utilization of financial resources and to innovate in urban renewal project planning and management [3] Group 3: Guangzhou's Urban Renewal Strategy - Guangzhou's urban renewal strategy focuses on five vitality goals, aiming to create demonstration projects in water system updates and comprehensive urban renewal systems [5][6] - The city plans to enhance environmental quality, activate community engagement, stimulate consumption, promote green initiatives, and improve governance through a comprehensive information platform [7][8] Group 4: Historical Context and Experience - Guangzhou is recognized for its early initiation of urban renewal projects, having developed replicable models and innovative mechanisms that have received national recognition [8] - The city's proactive approach and established experience in urban renewal align with the criteria set forth in the notification, positioning it favorably for continued support [8]

Core Viewpoint - The central government plans to allocate over 20 billion yuan to support urban renewal actions in 20 selected cities, including Beijing and Guangzhou, aiming to establish a sustainable urban renewal mechanism and address infrastructure deficiencies [1][2]. Group 1: Urban Renewal Significance - Urban renewal is essential for enhancing the quality of life for residents and promoting high-quality economic and social development [1]. - With an urbanization rate of 67.0% in 2024, China is transitioning to a phase focused on improving existing urban stock [1]. - Urban renewal is positioned as a key strategy for boosting investment and consumer potential amid macroeconomic efforts to expand domestic demand [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Mechanisms - The central government has innovated funding methods, providing fixed subsidies for urban renewal to 15 cities starting in 2024, with an expansion to 20 cities this year [2]. - Selected cities have strong foundations for renewal, established benchmark projects, and positive market feedback, which will enhance the effectiveness of financial and policy support [2]. - The focus is on addressing infrastructure weaknesses and investing in key areas with high potential and demand, such as underground networks and consumer-oriented infrastructure [3]. Group 3: Long-term Mechanism Development - The establishment of long-term mechanisms is highlighted, including the use of central funds for project preparation, financial support, and land approval processes [3]. - Cities are encouraged to leverage funding and reform to explore sustainable new models and improve regulatory frameworks for urban renewal [3]. Group 4: Continuous Urban Renewal Efforts - Urban renewal is an ongoing process that requires collaboration between government, market forces, and citizens to enhance urban charm and quality of life [4].

Group 1 - Poly Developments and Shanghai Real Estate Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement for urban renewal projects in Shanghai, leveraging their collaborative advantages to create benchmark projects and inject new momentum into urban development [1] - The recent land auction in Beijing resulted in the sale of four residential plots for a total of 130.6 billion yuan, indicating strong interest from real estate companies in core areas, which may lead to increased property development activities [2] - China Merchants Shekou announced a bond interest payment of 3.50% on a total issuance of 40 billion yuan, reflecting the company's stable financial condition and enhancing investor confidence [3] Group 2 - Bailian Group reached a land reserve agreement with the Yangpu District Land Reserve Center in Shanghai, involving three plots with a total price exceeding 20 billion yuan, which is expected to improve cash flow and provide resources for future business expansion [4] - Diou Home's actual controller signed a strategic cooperation agreement, committing to convert all held convertible bonds, which may optimize the company's governance structure and influence the competitive landscape in the home furnishing industry [5]

｜点评｜ 从去年后半年开始，美国ADP就业人数增长就开始放缓。今年美国经济增速正在从此前的修复转向降温，新增就业岗位减少是正常现 象。与此同时，美国失业率维持在低位，就业市场接近充分就业的状态。然而，5月ADP就业人数远低于市场预期。 点击报名 ▲科学出海 中央财政拟支持20城实施城市更新 6月4日，财政部公示2025年城市更新行动评审结果，北京等20个城市入选。未来几年，中央财政计划补助超过200亿元，支持这20个城市实施城 市更新行动，探索建立可持续的城市更新机制，补齐城市基础设施的短板弱项。从资金支持方向来看，中央财政资金主要支持城市更新的样板项 目建设和机制建设这两个方向。 自2019年中央经济工作会议首次提出城市更新以来，中国城市更新行动持续推进。住房和城乡建设部数据显示，2024年，全国共实施城市更新 项目6万余个，完成投资约2.9万亿元。（上海证券报） ｜点评｜ 城市更新项目改善了老旧城区居民的居住环境，还能通过基建项目为相关产业链注入新的需求，加速国内经济修复。早期城市建设受 限于当时技术、资金等，部分城区在居住环境方面只能说是不尽如人意。 城市更新项目通过中央和地方政府牵头注资，带动社会资本 ...

老旧城区居民居住环境安全感，小区生活环境优美感、便利感，就业渠道通畅感，都是城市更新需要着 重加强的方面。 4日，财政部发布了《2025年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动评选结果公示》，20个城市入选。资金 支持方向为城市更新重点样板项目、城市更新机制建设两个方面。 这表明，要充分发挥中央财政补助资金的带动作用，积极推进城市更新进程，努力实现到2030年，城市 更新行动取得重要进展、城市更新体制机制不断完善、城市开发建设方式转型初见成效、安全发展基础 更加牢固等目标。 城市更新行动是推动城市高质量发展、不断满足人民美好生活需要的重要举措。5月中旬，中办、国办 发布了《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》（下称《意见》），强调城市更新要坚持以人民为中心、 全面践行人民城市理念。 以人民为中心，首先是城市更新要更加着眼于安民，让居民有一个更为安全的生活环境。 城市更新主要针对的是老旧城区，这些城区基础设施老化，燃气、桥梁、供水等存在安全隐患。一个较 为普遍的现象是，一旦遇到大雨很多老旧城区就会道路成河，形成内涝。老旧城区城市燃气管网普遍使 用年限较长，有的甚至达到30年以上，比较容易出现泄漏、破裂、爆燃等安全隐患。20 ...

Core Insights - The East An land parcel in Shanghai's Xuhui District has become the "national total price king" with a transaction amount exceeding 52.3 billion yuan, marking it as the largest single land acquisition project in Shanghai's history [1][2] - The project involves three residential land parcels sold through agreement, with prices of 8.35 billion yuan, 9.818 billion yuan, and 34.135 billion yuan respectively, totaling over 52.3 billion yuan [1] - The development is expected to enhance the urban landscape and provide a significant boost to the local real estate market, particularly with a focus on smaller housing units [1][3] Group 1 - The East An land is a large-scale redevelopment project in a mature area of Shanghai, covering a total area of 15.93 hectares and involving over 6,000 households [2][3] - The project is strategically located near the previous "land kings," indicating its potential for high-value development [2] - The project includes community-level public service facilities and emphasizes the design of significant architectural landmarks [3] Group 2 - The East An land's development is expected to complement the nearby West Bank Financial City, enhancing the overall urban value and functionality of the area [4] - The local government is supporting the integration of health technology and artificial intelligence, indicating a focus on future growth in the health tech sector [4] - The area is already rich in medical, educational, and commercial resources, which will further support the development of the East An land [4] Group 3 - The East An land is positioned near luxury residential areas, which have seen record-breaking property prices, suggesting a potential upward trend in housing prices in the vicinity [5][7] - The large-scale development is expected to create a cohesive urban environment, promoting a 15-minute living circle for residents [8] - The project is led by local state-owned enterprises, which may provide advantages in systematic and long-term development planning [8]