| 数据指标 | 项目类别 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 21,940.00 +30.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 2,636.00 | -34.00↓ | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -90.00 -15.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -80.00 -14321.00↓ | +5.00↑ | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 249,248.00 -9192.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) 344,387.00 LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） 2,863.50 -24.50↓ LME铝库存（日，吨） 535,900.00 | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 50,325.00 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) 260,858.00 +5094.00↑ | | | 期货市场 | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） 10,147.00 +5196.00↑ 沪伦比值 7.66 | -2000.00↓ +0.08↑ | | 铸造铝合 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-03 盘面轮动，股指缩量 市场分析 关注"十五五"主线。宏观方面，国家发改委主任郑栅洁发表署名文章指出，"十五五"规划建议将建设现代化产业 体系这一任务摆在12个领域首位，关键是优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，加快新能源、新材 料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展。对外方面，中俄举行战略安全磋商，就涉及两国战略安全 利益的重大问题全面、深入沟通，达成新的共识，增进了战略互信。双方就涉日本问题进行战略对表，达成高度 共识。海外方面，特朗普表示，他计划在2026年初公布下一任美联储主席人选。 股指震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收低，沪指跌0.42%收于3897.71点，创业板指跌0.69%。行业方面，板块 指数跌多涨少，石油石化、轻工制造、家用电器行业领涨，传媒、有色金属、计算机、医药生物行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交额为1.6万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收涨，纳指涨0.59%报23413.67点。 期指减仓。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货贴水程度修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指的成交量和持仓量同步下降。 策略 海外方面，特朗普近期公开表示拟于2026 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - On December 2nd, all four major stock index futures contracts declined. IF fell 0.32%, IH fell 0.4%, IC fell 0.63%, and IM fell 0.64%. The total trading volume of stock index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data - **IF**: The closing price of IF2512 was 4535.8, down 0.32%, with a basis of -18.53, a trading volume of 760.1 billion, a trading volume of 55827 contracts, a decrease of 12773 contracts, and an open interest of 138432 contracts, a decrease of 7168 contracts [1]. - **IH**: The closing price of IH2512 was 2971.4, down 0.4%, with a basis of -7.07, a trading volume of 224.4 billion, a trading volume of 25152 contracts, a decrease of 6884 contracts, and an open interest of 53855 contracts, a decrease of 5275 contracts [1]. - **IC**: The closing price of IC2512 was 6982.2, down 0.63%, with a basis of -58.1, a trading volume of 756.8 billion, a trading volume of 54148 contracts, a decrease of 10161 contracts, and an open interest of 127620 contracts, a decrease of 6889 contracts [1]. - **IM**: The closing price of IM2512 was 7239.6, down 0.64%, with a basis of -73.58, a trading volume of 1396.3 billion, a trading volume of 96449 contracts, a decrease of 11212 contracts, and an open interest of 181453 contracts, a decrease of 7566 contracts [1]. 2. Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF decreased by 15395 contracts, IH decreased by 7934 contracts, IC decreased by 10749 contracts, and IM decreased by 12406 contracts [2]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest of IF decreased by 5611 contracts, IH decreased by 5305 contracts, IC decreased by 3458 contracts, and IM decreased by 5286 contracts [2]. 3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF**: For IF2512, long positions decreased by 5565, and short positions decreased by 7152. For IF2603, long positions increased by 473, and short positions increased by 346. For IF2606, long positions increased by 188, and short positions increased by 412 [5]. - **IH**: For IH2512, long positions decreased by 4471, and short positions decreased by 4910. For IH2603, long positions decreased by 365, and short positions decreased by 244 [5]. - **IC**: For IC2512, long positions decreased by 3958, and short positions decreased by 5483. For IC2603, long positions increased by 1343, and short positions increased by 1669. For IC2606, long positions increased by 796, and short positions increased by 766 [5]. - **IM**: For IM2512, long positions decreased by 4599, and short positions decreased by 6179. For IM2601, long positions increased by 1034, and short positions increased by 939. For IM2603, long positions decreased by 616, and short positions decreased by 659 [5]. 4. Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1 [6]. - **Important Drives**: US President Trump plans to announce the next Federal Reserve Chairman in early 2026. The A - share market declined with reduced trading volume, and the US three major stock indexes rose slightly [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Hainan's four leading industries have significantly contributed to the province's GDP, with their value added reaching 67.2% of the total GDP in the first three quarters of this year, an increase of 14.2 percentage points since 2020, and this is expected to rise to around 70% by 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - The development of a modern industrial system with Hainan's unique characteristics is essential for the high-quality growth of the Hainan Free Trade Port, as emphasized by national leadership [2][3]. - Hainan's industrial development is supported by its unique geographical and climatic advantages, which facilitate the growth of its four leading industries [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Goals and Implementation - To achieve the 70% GDP contribution target by 2027, Hainan must leverage its inherent advantages and focus on developing a collaborative industrial structure [5][6]. - The province aims to cultivate 30 key industrial clusters, each with a value of over 10 billion, by 2027, enhancing the synergy among enterprises within the industrial chain [7]. Group 3: Innovation and Investment - Hainan is increasing its investment in R&D, with growth rates leading the nation for three consecutive years, which is crucial for driving technological and industrial innovation [3][6]. - The province is actively pursuing new industries such as biomanufacturing and hydrogen energy, aligning with national strategies and technological advancements [6][8]. Group 4: Open Economy and External Engagement - The upcoming full closure of the island marks a new phase of higher-level openness, which is expected to enhance the optimization and upgrading of leading industries [4][8]. - Hainan plans to implement financial reforms and expand its duty-free shopping sector to attract more external investment and boost consumption [8].

Group 1 - The event "Bingqing Kaijiang Ba" is a new theoretical presentation platform tailored for the youth, organized by the High-tech Zone (Bingjiang) Party Committee Propaganda Department [3] - The innovative format of the event includes outdoor settings and popular forms such as open mic and cross-talk, aiming to integrate the Party's innovative theories into youth stories [3] - The first event was held in a community activity square, emphasizing the importance of technology and community engagement in high-quality urban development [1][2] Group 2 - Youth representatives from diverse cultural backgrounds shared their experiences of integrating into life and work in Bingjiang, highlighting the community's supportive environment [2] - The event featured interactive storytelling, showcasing how community services help young people pursue their dreams and foster a sense of belonging [2] - The activities will continue in December at various locations, including Starlight Reception Hall and Puyang Fishing Wharf, indicating ongoing community engagement efforts [3]

Group 1 - The provincial government emphasizes the importance of focusing on the real economy and developing new productive forces tailored to local conditions [1][2] - The automotive industry in the province is projected to export over 1 million vehicles by 2025, contributing significantly to the provincial GDP growth [2] - The province aims to build an advanced manufacturing system by integrating growth points, industrial chains, and clusters, targeting trillion-level industrial clusters and billion-level industrial chains [2][3] Group 2 - The province plans to enhance the organizational structure for industrial development, promoting deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [3] - The low-altitude economy is identified as a new growth area, with initiatives to develop the aviation industry in Wuhu City [3] - The Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group is focusing on intelligent, green, and integrated development, aiming to upgrade traditional industries and expand into new fields [4] Group 3 - The provincial investment group is committed to supporting the construction of a modern industrial system with a focus on high-quality development and innovation [4][5] - The investment group plans to leverage technology finance to nurture technology-based enterprises and create a robust innovation ecosystem [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the context of the mild domestic economic recovery and the increasing expectation of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December FOMC meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in China will affect the A-share market's rhythm in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and the investment main line in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to be more volatile, with funds preferring defensive allocations. After the meeting content is clear, positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cuts may resonate, and market risk appetite is expected to rise again. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next all declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.32% to - 0.40%. The trading volumes were 55,827.00, 2,946.00, 19,023.00, and 3,903.00 respectively. The positions were 138,432.00, 6,861.00, 85,537.00, and 24,607.00 respectively, with changes of - 7,168.00, 491.00, 586.00, and 480.00 respectively. [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next all declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.40% to - 0.45%. The trading volumes were 25,152.00, 1,149.00, 7,430.00, and 1,892.00 respectively. The positions were 53,855.00, 2,456.00, 23,041.00, and 7,352.00 respectively, with changes of - 5,275.00, 112.00, - 302.00, and 160.00 respectively. [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next all declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.58% to - 0.63%. The trading volumes were 54,148.00, 3,714.00, 19,427.00, and 6,766.00 respectively. The positions were 127,620.00, 9,568.00, 72,697.00, and 32,227.00 respectively, with changes of - 6,889.00, 860.00, 1,648.00, and 923.00 respectively. [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next all declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.61% to - 0.64%. The trading volumes were 96,449.00, 5,948.00, 26,897.00, and 10,822.00 respectively. The positions were 181,453.00, 14,342.00, 96,203.00, and 55,881.00 respectively, with changes of - 7,566.00, 1,179.00, - 705.00, and 1,806.00 respectively. [1] - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The inter - monthly spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different changes. For example, the current value of the IF next month - IF current month spread was - 18.00, compared with the previous value of - 14.40. [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by - 0.48%, the SSE 50 index decreased by - 0.51%, the CSI 500 index decreased by - 0.87%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by - 1.00%. The trading volumes and total trading amounts of these indexes also showed corresponding changes. [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, telecommunications services, and utilities sectors had positive growth rates of 0.53%, 0.52%, and 0.35% respectively, while the raw materials, industry, and other sectors had negative growth rates. [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts against their corresponding spot indexes showed different values and changes compared with the previous two days. For example, the IF current month - CSI 300 basis had a previous value of - 18.53, compared with - 21.09 two days ago. [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by - 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by - 0.68%, the Small and Medium - Sized Board Index decreased by - 0.79%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by - 0.69%. [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.24%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by - 1.89%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.25%, and the DAX index increased by 0.49%. [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - China and Russia held strategic security consultations, reaching new consensuses on major issues related to strategic security interests. They also had in - depth exchanges on the Ukraine crisis and strategic coordination on issues related to Japan. [2] - Some Japanese organizations expressed their willingness to visit China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry hoped that these organizations would play a positive role in Japan. [2] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal will prioritize the construction of a modern industrial system. The key is to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries, and accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy. [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Administrative Measures for Credit Restoration in Market Supervision and Administration", which will be implemented on December 25 this year. [2] - Five departments including the National Development and Reform Commission put forward opinions on strengthening the construction of data element disciplines and professional digital talent teams, with 12 specific measures to support the construction of digital colleges in comprehensive universities and the addition of relevant majors in vocational colleges. [2] 6. Industry Information - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a collective price increase, with many leading enterprises issuing price increase notices to customers. [2] - In November, the estimated wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.72 million, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. Tesla China's wholesale volume was 86,700, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of nearly 41%. [2] - The China Drug Price Registration System was officially launched, which is beneficial for building a global price system and promoting the development of the global market for innovative drugs. [2] - The Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a symposium to listen to opinions on the preparation of the China Artificial Intelligence Terminal Industry Association, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the artificial intelligence terminal industry in China. [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes rose. On the previous trading day, the stock index fluctuated and declined, with the petroleum and petrochemical sector leading the gain and the media sector leading the loss. The market turnover was 1.61 trillion yuan. On December 1, the margin trading balance increased by 10.208 billion yuan to 2.466708 trillion yuan. [2]

第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (250,000) (200,000) (150,000) (100,000) (50,000) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-12-02 2025-12-01 2025-11-28 2025-11-27 2025-11-26 热点资讯 1.国家发改委主任郑栅洁发表署名文章指出，"十五五"规划建议将建设现代化产业体系这一任务摆在12个领域首位，关键是 优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展。 2.磷酸铁锂行业正在发生一场集体提价行动，近期多家龙头企业已向客户发出明确的涨价通知。龙蟠科技工作人员称，近期行 业确实有相关涨价的行情，公司正与客户沟通涨价事由。 3.经合组织发布最新经济展望报告，今明两年，预计全球经济增速分别为3.2%和2.9%，与 ...

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首席点评： 白银延续强势 1 ）国际新闻 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指震荡回落，石油石化板块领涨，传媒板块领跌，市场成交额 1.61万亿元。 资金方面，12月01日融资余额增加102.08亿元至24667.08亿元。2025年12月，全球金融市场将迎来两大"政策风向标"： 美联储12月议息会议与中国中央经济工作会议，其中美联储议息策直接影响全球资本流向与风险偏好，而中央经济工 作会议作为"十五五"规划开局前的关键部署会议，将明确中国2026年经济政策框架与产业发展方向。在国内经济温和 复苏、全球流动性宽松预期升温的背景下，两大会议的政策共振，将影响12月A股节奏，更将为跨年行情与2026年投 资主线奠定基础。整体上我们认为在两大会议政策正式落地前，资金可能更偏谨慎，股市预计仍然偏震荡为主，资金 偏向防御性配置。待会议内容明确，积极政策信号与美联储降息形成共振，市场风险偏好有望再度提升。 品种观点 | | 偏空(可能性) | 偏多(可能性) | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 (IH) | | 4 | | 股指 (IF) | | V | | 股指(IC) | | 1 | | 股指( ...