查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 4月18日，江苏银行发布2024年年报，全年实现营收808亿，同比增长8.8%，归母净利润318亿，同比增长 10.8%。加权平均净资产收益率（ROAE）13.6%，同比下降0.9pct。 点击注册小程序 点评： 营收增长提速，业绩表现韧性强 2024年江苏银行营收、拨备前利润、归母净利润同比增速分别为8.8%、7.6%、10.8%，增速较1-3Q24分别 提升2.6、0.5、0.7pct，营收增长提速，盈利保持双位数增长。其中，净利息收入、非息收入增速分别为 6.3%、14.8%，较1-3Q24变动+4.8、-2.3pct。全年成本收入比、信用减值损失/营收分别为24.7%、22.7%， 同比分别提升0.7、0.4pct。拆分盈利增 ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 平安银行 (000001) ——业绩预期内承压，但更要关注业务结构的转型进阶 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 18 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 11.18 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 13.43/9.61 | | 市净率 | 0.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 8.63 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 216,954 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,276.73/9,781.65 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 22.48 | | 资产负债率% | 91.24 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 19,406/19,406 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-18 05-18 06-18 07-18 08-18 09-18 10-18 11-18 12-18 01-18 0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The revenue growth of listed banks in the fourth quarter has generally rebounded, with large banks benefiting from a low base in Q4 2023 and increased investment income and foreign exchange gains [2][6] - Most banks maintain positive net profit growth, with large banks seeing a comprehensive turnaround in net profit growth, while high-quality city commercial banks lead in growth rates [2][6] - The net interest margin decline in the fourth quarter was better than expected, reflecting accelerated improvement in funding costs [2][8] - Asset quality is generally stable, with a decrease in non-performing loan ratios, while the provision coverage ratio has generally declined, supporting profit growth [2][9] - Retail risk in the industry is rising, with expectations of continued pressure on retail risk in the first half of 2025 [2][9] - Dividend ratios for large banks remain stable, with state-owned banks maintaining a high certainty of a 30% dividend ratio [2][10] Performance Growth - In 2024, most state-owned banks and city commercial banks achieved positive revenue growth, with a trend of accelerated growth in Q4 [6][20] - The net profit growth of large state-owned banks has turned positive, with high-quality city commercial banks maintaining leading growth rates [6][20] Scale Expansion - Credit growth has generally slowed, with high-quality city commercial banks continuing to lead [7][27] - State-owned banks have seen a decrease in credit growth after rapid expansion over the past two years, while high-quality regional city commercial banks maintain strong growth [7][27] Profitability - The decline in net interest margin has slowed significantly, with an average decline of 1.5 basis points for state-owned banks in 2024 [8][24] - The average cost of interest-bearing liabilities for 23 banks has decreased by 14 basis points [8][24] Asset Quality - Among 35 banks, 24 have seen a year-on-year decrease in non-performing loan ratios, while 9 have remained stable [9][29] - The provision coverage ratio has generally declined, particularly for retail banks, reflecting a reduction in credit impairment provisions [9][29] Dividend Ratio - Most banks maintain stable dividend ratios, with state-owned banks expected to maintain a 30% dividend ratio [10][12]

Group 1 - The retail non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 23 listed banks continues to rise, with a slight decrease in overall NPL ratio to 1.25% as of Q4 2024, down 2bps from Q4 2023. However, retail loan NPL ratios have generally increased, with state-owned banks seeing an average rise of 29bps compared to Q4 2023 [1][2][3] - The average retail credit cost for listed banks in 2024 is 1.24%, a decrease of 3bps year-on-year. State-owned banks have a lower average retail credit cost of 0.99%, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-risk personal housing loans [2][3] - Looking ahead, banks are expected to manage retail loan risks by tightening customer eligibility and employing various asset disposal strategies, with the impact on asset quality being relatively controllable [4] Group 2 - The report highlights that the retail loan structure of banks has shifted, with personal housing loans making up an average of 60.9% of the total retail loans for state-owned banks, which is 17.6 percentage points higher than the sample average [2][16] - Specific banks such as Ping An Bank and Everbright Bank have seen a decrease in retail credit costs, with Ping An Bank's credit cost dropping by 34bps year-on-year, largely due to a reduction in credit card NPLs [3][4] - The report suggests that banks like Postal Savings Bank have improved their asset quality, with a notable decrease in consumer loan NPLs by 12.2 billion yuan, resulting in a NPL ratio decline of 47bps to 1.34% [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - Zhangjiagang Bank reported a revenue of 4.71 billion with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.88 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue growth is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% and net profit growth of 5.1%, showing resilience in performance [2] - The weighted average return on equity (ROAE) is 11.05%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net interest income and non-interest income growth rates are -12.6% and 96.8%, respectively, indicating a significant recovery in non-interest income [2] Loan and Asset Growth - The growth rate of interest-earning assets and loans is 4% and 8%, respectively, showing a slight slowdown compared to the previous quarter [3] - New loans for the year totaled 10.2 billion, with a decrease in financial investments and interbank assets [3] - The bank's focus on corporate and retail loans remains strong, with corporate loans accounting for 53.2% of total loans [3] Deposit Trends - Deposit growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in total deposits [5] - The proportion of time deposits continues to rise, reaching 79.4% by year-end [5] - New deposits for the year totaled 10.1 billion, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous year [5] Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin (NIM) for the year is 1.62%, showing a "L"-shaped trend with a decrease of 37 basis points year-on-year [6] - Non-interest income reached 1.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 97%, driven by bond trading [7][8] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stands at 0.94%, indicating strong risk management capabilities [9] - The bank's provision coverage ratio is 376%, maintaining a high level of risk buffer [9] Capital Adequacy - The core tier 1 capital ratio is 11.1%, reflecting an increase due to the conversion of convertible bonds [10] - The bank's risk-weighted assets (RWA) growth rate is 6.7%, showing a slowdown in asset expansion [10] Strategic Focus - The bank is focusing on the local market, particularly in personal business loans, and is expanding its presence in Suzhou, Wuxi, and Nantong [11] - The strategy aims to enhance loan growth and improve asset pricing [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The bank's 2024 total revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 0.2%. Interest income grew by 1.5%, while non-interest income saw a 3.2% increase. Investment income helped mitigate the decline in middle-income revenue [2][6]. - The bank's loan growth was 9.4% for the year, with retail products showing positive growth despite weak demand. Deposits increased by 9.5% [2][6]. - The net interest margin for the year was 1.87%, down 14 basis points year-on-year, while the deposit cost rate decreased by 9 basis points to 1.44%, expected to remain the lowest in the industry [2][6]. - The year-end non-performing loan ratio rose by 4 basis points to 0.90%, with a provision coverage ratio decreasing by 16 percentage points to 286% [2][6]. - The bank announced an active adjustment plan for savings agency fees, which is expected to effectively release future profits, estimating a reduction of 4.7% in pre-tax profit for 2025 due to a decrease in agency fee expenses by 4.5 billion yuan [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's total revenue was 348.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.5 billion yuan. Interest income was 286.1 billion yuan, and non-interest income was 25.3 billion yuan [27]. - The bank's total loans grew to 8.7 trillion yuan, with retail loans showing a growth rate of 9.4% [27]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at year-end was 0.90%, with a new generation rate of 0.84% for the year. The provision coverage ratio was 286% [2][6]. - The bank's asset quality indicators remained strong despite some fluctuations in retail risk pressures [2][6]. Fee Adjustment Impact - The active adjustment of savings agency fees is projected to save 11.5 billion yuan in 2024 and 4.5 billion yuan in 2025, enhancing pre-tax profit by 4.7% [21][22]. - The comprehensive savings agency fee rate is expected to decrease from 1.15% to 1.04% following the adjustments [21][22]. Investment Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain a stable dividend payout ratio of 30% for 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 5.0% for A-shares and 5.7% for H-shares [2][6]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is estimated at 0.58x for A-shares and 0.51x for H-shares, indicating a low valuation with high dividend yield advantages [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance of China Construction Bank (CCB) for the year 2024, highlighting a slight decline in revenue but an improvement in profit growth, alongside various operational metrics and trends [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - CCB reported a total revenue of 750.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 335.6 billion, with a growth rate of 0.9% [3]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) was 10.69%, down by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [3]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The revenue decline has narrowed, with profit growth accelerating; the year-on-year growth rates for revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit were -2.5%, -4%, and 0.9%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [4]. - The net interest income and non-interest income growth rates were -4.4% and 5.1%, respectively, with changes of +1.5 and -1.7 percentage points compared to the previous quarters [4]. Credit and Loan Growth - By the end of 2024, CCB's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 5.8% and 8.3% year-on-year, although these growth rates decreased by 2.9 and 0.5 percentage points compared to the end of the third quarter [5]. Deposit Trends - CCB experienced a 5.7% year-on-year growth in interest-bearing liabilities and a 3.7% growth in deposits, with changes of -3.8 and +1.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [6]. - The total new deposits for the year were 1 trillion, which was a decrease of 1.6 trillion compared to the previous year, influenced by regulatory adjustments and interest rate cuts [6]. Net Interest Margin (NIM) - The NIM for the year was 1.51%, down by 19 basis points from 2023, but the rate of decline has slowed down, indicating a potential stabilization [7]. Non-Interest Income - CCB's non-interest income reached 160.3 billion, growing by 5.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous quarters [8]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and attention rate were 1.34% and 1.89%, respectively, showing a decline of 1 basis point and 18 basis points from mid-year [9]. - The new NPLs for the year totaled 19.4 billion, which was a decrease of 13 billion year-on-year, indicating improved asset quality [9]. Capital Adequacy - By the end of 2024, CCB's core tier 1, tier 1, and total capital adequacy ratios were 14.5%, 15.2%, and 19.7%, respectively, with increases of 38, 21, and 34 basis points from the end of the third quarter [10]. - The bank plans to distribute dividends of 100.75 billion, maintaining a payout ratio of 30% [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue decline has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% in total revenue for 2024, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.9% year-on-year [5][8] - The bank's total assets reached 40.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, with loans and deposits growing by 8.5% and 3.8% respectively [5][8] - The report emphasizes the resilience of net interest income, which showed a reduced decline of 4.4% year-on-year, and non-interest income increased by 5.1% [8][9] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.34%, indicating stable asset quality, although retail loan NPLs increased slightly [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 750.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 335.6 billion yuan, and a return on equity (ROE) of 10.69% [5][10] - The net interest margin for the year was 1.51%, down 19 basis points year-on-year, while the loan yield decreased to 3.43% [8][10] Asset Quality - The year-end NPL ratio was 1.34%, down 3 basis points year-on-year, with corporate loan NPLs decreasing to 1.65% [9][10] - The provision coverage ratio stood at 234%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [9] Future Projections - The report projects that the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 will be 1.36, 1.40, and 1.46 yuan respectively, with corresponding profit growth rates of 1.1%, 3.0%, and 4.3% [8][12] - The bank's total assets are expected to grow at a rate of 5.9% in 2025, with loan growth projected at 8.0% [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 135.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 41.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.22. The non-performing loan ratio and provision coverage ratio at the end of Q4 2024 are 1.25% and 180.59%, respectively, remaining stable and improving by 9.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1][4] Summary by Sections Performance - The company's revenue growth rate for 2024 is -7.05%, with a marginal improvement of 1.7 percentage points compared to the first three quarters. The net profit growth rate is 2.22%, improving by 0.3 percentage points from the first three quarters. This improvement is attributed to a stabilization in interest margins, a reduced decline in middle-income, and growth in other non-interest income [2] - Net interest income for 2024 decreased by 10.06%, with a net interest margin of 1.54%, remaining stable compared to the first half of 2024. The year-on-year decline in net interest margin is 20 basis points, which is a smaller decline than the previous year [2][3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of Q4 2024 is 1.25%, unchanged from the previous quarter. Leading indicators such as the attention rate and overdue rate have improved, decreasing by 15 basis points and 19 basis points, respectively, compared to Q2 2024. The provision coverage ratio has increased by 9.9 percentage points [4] - The non-performing loan generation rate for 2024 is 1.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 23 basis points. The total amount of non-performing loans is reported at 49.25 billion yuan, with a net increase of 1.7 billion yuan in corporate loans [4] Assets and Liabilities - As of the end of Q4 2024, total assets and loans amount to 6.96 trillion yuan and 3.93 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.75% and 3.88%. The growth in total assets is primarily driven by a rapid increase in interbank assets [10] - Total deposits at the end of Q4 2024 are reported at 3.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.67%, mainly due to a net decrease in corporate demand deposits [10]

Core Viewpoints - The company reported a slight recovery in performance metrics for 2024, with operating income, PPOP, and net profit growth rates of -2.54%, -4.03%, and 0.88% respectively, showing marginal improvements compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company experienced a decrease in net interest margin, but improvements in liability costs contributed to a stabilization of the margin in Q4 2024 [2] - Non-interest income saw significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 50.56%, primarily driven by trading gains and realized income from investment accounts [2] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company reported year-on-year growth rates of -0.09% for revenue, -3.26% for PPOP, and 3.37% for net profit, with quarter-on-quarter changes of +2.63pct, +1.24pct, and -0.42pct respectively [1] - The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.51%, with a slight decrease of 1 basis point compared to the first three quarters, while Q4 2024's estimated margin was 1.49%, reflecting a 4 basis point increase [2] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of Q4 2024 was 1.34%, a decrease of 1 basis point, indicating stable asset quality [2] Asset and Liability Management - The company’s interest-earning assets grew by 5.75% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 8.33%, although growth rates for both corporate and retail loans showed a decline [3] - Deposit growth for 2024 was 3.8%, a significant decrease from 2023, as the company focused on proactive liability management and increased bond issuance [3] - The cost-to-income ratio for 2024 was 29.44%, up 1.24 percentage points from 2023, reflecting pressures on revenue [3] Risk and Outlook - The company noted that retail loan quality showed signs of stress, with the retail loan NPL ratio rising to 0.98%, an increase of 14 basis points [2] - Despite a slowdown in scale expansion, the company maintains a stable operational foundation, with expectations for improvement in key performance indicators in 2025 as economic policies take effect [3]