Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" on July 4 ended support for solar and wind energy, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, with eight member countries having already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump stated that an agreement in the Gaza Strip might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Iraqi - related enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil inventories remained flat this week. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, Cushing's inventories decreased, gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of U.S. oil rigs dropped rapidly by July 4, and the U.S. fundamentals remained tight. Global refinery profits rebounded this week, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillation. WTI and Brent are stronger than Dubai, showing market differentiation. Absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The U.S. Treasury issued a general license related to Venezuela, allowing liquefied petroleum gas loaded on or before July 7 to be unloaded before September 5 [3]. - Mizuho Securities analyst Robert Yawger pointed out that OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August indicates Saudi Arabia's confidence in market demand rather than an attempt to seize market share, as Saudi Aramco raised its crude oil selling price for the Asian market in August [3]. - In June, Russia's daily crude oil production was 9.022 million barrels, 28,000 barrels lower than its June production target, the largest gap this year, reflecting Russia's increased emphasis on production discipline [4]. - The U.S. Middle East envoy said that Iran talks would be held around next week, and Trump expressed his hope for the end of the Israel - Iran war and his willingness to lift sanctions on Iran at an appropriate time [4]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending June 27, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day to 2.305 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 13.433 million barrels per day [4]. - In the week ending June 27, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 239,000 barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; and crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 975,000 barrels per day to 6.919 million barrels per day [3][4][5]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. refined oil products was 20.288 million barrels per day, a 1.12% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, with both gasoline and diesel production rising at major refineries and falling at independent refineries. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries increased, and gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and that of local refineries improved month - on - month [5]. 3.3 Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" on July 4 ended support for solar and wind energy, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy [5]. - Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, with eight member countries having already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July [5]. - Trump said that an agreement in the Gaza Strip might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Iraqi - related enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling [5]. - Fundamentally, global oil inventories remained flat this week. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, Cushing's inventories decreased, gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of U.S. oil rigs dropped rapidly by July 4, and the U.S. fundamentals remained tight [5]. - Global refinery profits rebounded this week, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillation. WTI and Brent are stronger than Dubai, showing market differentiation. Absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-03原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2508： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普宣布，美国将对越南出口商品征收20%关税，任何从第三国通过越南转运的商品 将面临40%的关税，他并称，越南将对美国产品征收零关税；ADP周三公布的全美就业报告显示，6月民间就 业岗位减少3.3万个，为2023年3月以来首次减少，经济不确定性阻碍招聘；伊朗颁布法令，规定国际原子 能机构今后对其核设施的检查需获得德黑兰最高国家安全委员会的批准，该国指责该机构偏袒西方国家， 并为以色列的空袭提供理由；中性 2.基差：7月2日，阿曼原油现货价为68.76美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices reflects ongoing volatility in international oil markets, with expectations of a potential decrease in the next pricing cycle due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][6]. Price Adjustment Summary - As of July 1, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively, marking the sixth price increase of the year and the first consecutive three increases [2][3]. - The average reference price for crude oil was reported at 70.61 USD per barrel, with a change rate of 4.74% [2]. - Following the latest adjustment, the retail prices for 92-octane gasoline will range between 7.5 and 7.6 yuan per liter, while diesel prices will be between 7.1 and 7.3 yuan per liter [2]. Impact on Consumers and Logistics - For an average private car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost approximately 9 yuan more, while logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons will see an increase of about 7.6 yuan per 100 kilometers driven [3]. - Consumers using a small car with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers will incur an additional cost of 13 yuan before the next price adjustment [3]. International Oil Price Trends - The recent pricing cycle experienced significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, with oil prices initially rising due to concerns over supply disruptions, followed by a sharp decline after a ceasefire agreement [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that while the geopolitical situation has stabilized, uncertainties remain, and the market is cautious about making bold predictions [4]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a high probability of a price decrease in the next adjustment cycle, with estimates suggesting a potential reduction of 290 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [6]. - The upcoming pricing window is expected to open on July 15, 2025, with market conditions indicating a likely negative change rate at the start of the new cycle [6]. Market Dynamics - Attention is shifting towards OPEC+ and their potential production increases, which could influence future oil supply and demand dynamics [5]. - The performance of major Chinese oil companies, referred to as the "three barrels of oil," has been closely tied to international oil price movements, with recent stock fluctuations reflecting geopolitical developments [7].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the asphalt market in the second half of the year will experience limited supply growth, with refinery production depending on profit margins and downstream demand [1] Supply Analysis - Limited capacity release is expected in the second half, with refinery production influenced by production profits and downstream demand [1] - High dilution asphalt discounts are likely to have a limited impact on independent refinery restarts [1] - Adjustments in fuel oil and dilution asphalt consumption tax refund policies may boost refinery processing profits and operational levels [1] - Maintenance plans for some petrochemical plants in Shandong during July and August will limit asphalt supply increases [1] - Southern petrochemical asphalt production is expected to decrease, alleviating supply surplus pressures [1] - Asphalt inventories at refineries and social storage are at near five-year lows, with significant inventory reductions and strong price support from manufacturers [1] Demand Analysis - The issuance of new local government special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half, although debt repayment and other projects may squeeze construction funding [1] - Export pressures may increase, while infrastructure investment could ramp up, but actual workload may remain low [1] - The rainy season moving north in the south will gradually restore domestic asphalt demand [1] - Demand was weak in June and July in South China and the Yangtze River Delta, but increased project construction in the north supports demand [1] - From August to October, demand is expected to increase due to project acceleration, with some highway projects entering the paving stage [1] Cost Analysis - The crude oil market experienced high volatility in the first half due to tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts [1] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in the third quarter, with stable output in the fourth quarter, although export growth may lag behind production increases in the next 2-3 months [1] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has decreased, with supply growth in the second half relying on non-OPEC+ and non-U.S. countries [1] - The summer demand peak in overseas markets is anticipated to boost transportation fuel demand in Europe and the U.S. in the third quarter [1] - EIA and IEA predict an oversupply in the crude oil market in the third and fourth quarters, with inventory accumulation pressures persisting [1] - Tight supply-demand conditions in the third quarter may support a rebound in oil prices to $70 per barrel, while the price center may shift down to $55 per barrel in the fourth quarter [1] Strategic Insights - The first half of the year saw an oversupply of asphalt in South China, leading to lower prices and a shift in pricing center due to low-cost resources moving north [1] - The second half is expected to see some supply growth, contingent on processing profits, with increased demand during peak seasons, although overall demand for the year remains weak [1] - The valuation in the first half was considered high, with recommendations to short the crack spread at high prices and to monitor changes in South China warehouse receipts [1]

原油日报 | 2025-07-01 欧佩克考虑继续增加生产配额 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌41美分，收于每桶65.11美元，跌幅为0.63%；8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格下跌16美分，收于每桶67.61美元，跌幅为0.24%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.30%，报498元/桶。 2、路透社数据显示，哈萨克斯坦今年的石油产量可能比预期高出2%，达到每日200万桶，原因是大型油田的产量 预计将增加。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，得克萨斯州4月份原油产量升至577万桶/日，为自去年11月以来最高水平。 （来源：Bloomberg） 4、欧佩克+将在七月会议上考虑延长其大规模增产，因领导者沙特正带头努力夺回市场份额。欧佩克+八个主要国 家已同意在过去三个月中每天大幅增产41.1万桶。八个成员国在7月6日开会时，欧佩克+可能会在8月再次将石油日 产量提高41.1万桶。欧佩克+领导国俄罗斯的态度也发生了值得注意的转变，在上次会议上，俄罗斯曾短暂反对7 月再次加速增产。但近期消息显示，如果欧佩克+认为有必要，莫斯科现在可能更愿意接受新的增产措 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-10原油早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2507： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普周一表示，会谈进展顺利，他从在伦敦的团队那里 "只得到了很好的报告"，当 被问及取消出口管制时，特朗普说："我们将拭目以待"；市场机构调查数据显示，5月OPEC原油产量增幅低 于目标，伊拉克进一步减产以弥补此前超额产出，而沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的增产幅度亦低于允许范围；中 性 2.基差：6月9日，阿曼原油现货价为66.03美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为65.88美元/桶，基差18.89元 /桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至5月30日当周API原油库存减少330万桶，预期减少90万桶；美国至5月30日当周EIA库存减 少430.4万桶，预期减少103.5万桶；库欣地区库存至5月30日当周增加57.6万桶，前值增加7.5万桶；截止 至6月9日，上海原油期货库存为402.9万桶，不变；偏多 4.盘面：20日均线偏平，价格在均线上方；中性 5.主力持仓：截至6月3日，WTI原油主力持仓多单，多 ...

原油震荡偏多 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：观望或短线 摘 要： 印巴局势从急剧升温又在一天之内迅速逆转达成全面 停火，中美经贸谈判历时 2 天达成实质性进展，美伊核协 议第四轮谈判艰难但富有成效，宏观和地缘为原油注入反 弹动力。整体看，调查数据显示欧佩克上月产量为 2,660 万桶/日，较 3 月减少 3 万桶/日，短期原油压力不大，后 续关注 5 月份沙特等中东产油国产量回升进展。短线参与 反弹。 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 原油周度跟踪报告 第 1 章 行情回顾 原油小幅反弹。SC2507 周度开 445，最高 500，最低 467，收盘 445，周度跌 1.3 或 0.28%。 06 合约承压下跌。 图表 1：布伦特原油价格走势 数据来源：博易大师，宁证期货 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 2.2 俄罗斯:逐步兑现减产，关注俄乌冲突演化 2.1 OPEC:OPEC+短期增产幅度不大 ...

【油价回顾】春节以来，国内成品油已经完成的7次调价，2025年2-4月份，油价逐月下跌，市场呈现"4跌2搁浅1涨"的局面，涨跌抵扣后，国内汽油统计大 降超830元/吨，折合升价，全国92,95号汽油以及0号柴油，油价下降幅度咋6.7~7.1毛/升，部分95号汽油降幅达到了0.71元/升，这也抹去了年初的涨幅，年内 油价统计下降425元/吨，各地油价今年以来预估下降0.34~0.35元/升左右！ 【油价周期】按照汽柴油10个工作日调价一次的安排，上次油价4月30日调价，2025年第10次调价，新一轮油价调整时间确定，5月19日24时进行调价！由于 五一小长假放假五天，国内油价调整休市，但是，原油市场延续下降的走势，从数据显示，上周五，WTI原油报价跌至58.29美元/桶，布伦特原油跌至61.29 美元/桶，原油价格重心下移，本轮周期初，美油报价累计下跌3.5%。 时光荏苒，进入五月初，上周三，今年第9次调价，油价预期上涨，不过，由于原油价格下跌，最终五一前夕，油价以搁浅落幕，2025年成品油呈现"二次搁 浅"的局面。全国油价仍按照此前25年最大下降后的水平执行，比如，山东地区92号汽油报价跌至7.06元/升，北 ...

分析：欧佩克"健康的"原油市場看起來像感冒了 金十数据5月5日讯，在当前的全球原油市场上，如果有一件事可以笃定地说，那就是欧佩克+增加供应 的理由不是真正的理由。欧佩克+称增产的决定是因为"低石油库存反映出当前市场健康的基本面。"问 题在于，几乎没有证据支持市场基本面健康的说法，虽然可见的原油库存略低于五年平均水平，但尚未 低到足以引发任何担忧的程度。需求方面，亚洲2025年前四个月的海运原油进口量仍比2024年同期减少 了28万桶/日，这很难表明需求健康。最终的结果是，随著供应不断上升，而需求却可能下降， 至少在 未来几个月内除了看跌油价之外，很难有其他的可能。（路透专栏作家） ...