（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月5日消息，加拿大11月新增就业人数5.36万人，预期为减少0.25万人。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices are experiencing fluctuations due to various economic factors, including U.S. labor market data and expectations regarding inflation indicators [1][2] - Silver prices have recovered to above 13.00 yuan per gram, currently reported at 13.050 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.81% increase after a previous decline due to profit-taking [1] - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims falling to 191,000, lower than the previous value of 218,000 and significantly below market expectations of 220,000, which has led to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, putting pressure on silver prices [1] Group 2 - The market is awaiting the delayed release of the September PCE inflation data, which is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with expectations that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points in December [1] - If inflation exceeds expectations, it may lead to a reassessment of the rate cut timeline, potentially exerting downward pressure on silver prices; conversely, moderate inflation could provide upward momentum for silver [1] - The current geopolitical situation remains uncertain, maintaining high levels of market risk aversion, which supports silver's resilience despite a strong yield environment [1]

贵金属日报 2025-12-04 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 面对就业数据的利多因素金银价格昨日未延续强势表现，哈塞特的"任命暗示"也令短期宽货 币的驱动因素出尽，当前金银策略上建议逐步了结在手多单，转入观望状态。沪金主力合约参 考运行区间 935-968 元/克，沪银主力合约参考运行区间 12639-14200 元/千克。 贵金属 贵金属研究 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.12 %，报 955.66 元/克，沪银跌 0.13 %，报 13600.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4238.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 58.93 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.06%，美元指数报 98.87 ； 昨日所公布的美国经济数据分化，宽松货币政策预期对于贵金属价格的驱动已出现明显的边际 弱化，需要注意短期剧烈的价格回调风险。 美联储 12 月份议息会议前的最后一份就业报告表现偏弱，美国 11 月 ADP 就业人口数下降 3.2 万人，低于预期的新增 1 万人和 ...

Group 1 - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, as indicated by the recent ADP data, suggesting a potential deterioration in economic conditions [1] - There was a brief increase in yields, correlated with a rise in S&P futures, but this momentum was not sustained, leading to a separation in trends [2] - Overall, there has been a three basis points deterioration across all maturities, reflecting the impact of weak jobs data on the bond market [3] Group 2 - Japanese 10-year yields have reached a fresh high, indicating a significant movement in the bond market over the past 18 years [3]

Group 1 - The current state of the U.S. economy presents a paradox where stock indices like the Dow and Nasdaq are reaching new highs, while over 70% of Americans feel the economy is worsening [1][3] - The average price of new cars in the U.S. has surged to over $50,000, making it difficult for young graduates to afford vehicles, indicating a consumption driven by necessity rather than demand [3][5] - The median age for first-time homebuyers has risen to 40 years, reflecting a significant delay in home ownership compared to previous decades, which is exacerbated by rising living costs [5][7] Group 2 - Employment data shows a discrepancy, with September's non-farm payrolls adding only 119,000 jobs, and previous months' data being revised downward, raising concerns about the accuracy of employment statistics [9][11] - The AI boom has led to significant job cuts in the tech sector, with many programmers losing their jobs despite the stock market benefiting from AI investments, creating a disconnect between corporate profits and consumer spending [11][13] - Protests against AI data centers highlight public discontent, as local residents face rising utility costs without corresponding job opportunities, indicating a growing backlash against AI developments [13][15] Group 3 - The economic benefits are disproportionately favoring the baby boomer generation, while younger individuals struggle to contribute to retirement plans like 401(k)s, limiting their participation in stock market gains [15][16] - The current economic model appears to benefit a small segment of the population, raising questions about the sustainability and fairness of such growth, as it fails to improve the living standards of the majority [15][16]

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined this week but remains near the critical zone, influenced by the base effect from strong post-holiday recovery in previous weeks[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded significantly, returning to the expansion zone, indicating enhanced resilience in demand[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index remained stable, reflecting a slight contraction due to the interplay of previous infrastructure investments and high base effects[1] Employment Trends - The unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 (excluding students) in China decreased to 17.3% in October from 17.7% in September, showing the impact of manufacturing expansion and job creation policies[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality employment, focusing on structural and institutional improvements to alleviate structural unemployment[2] - Policies aim to enhance youth employment stability and labor participation rates through education reform and new employment forms[2] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's current policy rate is between 3.75% and 4.00%, with inflation expected to return to 2% by 2026, indicating a prolonged process[7] - In September, the U.S. added approximately 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, reflecting signs of marginal weakness in the labor market[7]

智通财经APP获悉，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比暗示，他对于在美联储12月会议上再次降息仍持 谨慎态度。古尔斯比周四在印第安纳波利斯的一次活动中表示，通胀"似乎已经停滞不前，甚至可以说 有走错方向的警告信号。这让我感到有些不安。" 古尔斯比表示："我仍然感到不安的是，在我们真正看到通胀回升是暂时的证据之前，进行过多的前置 性降息。" 越来越多的政策制定者对在通胀仍处高位的情况下过度降息表示担忧。上月会议纪要显示，在美联储上 次会议上(当时他们连续第二次降息)，许多官员倾向于不在12月再次降息。 这位芝加哥联储负责人称，他的犹豫是针对短期而言，因为他仍听到一些行业的企业表示将进一步涨 价。但他仍然认为中期内利率可以进一步下降。 在印第安纳波利斯活动后向记者发表讲话时，古尔斯比称，在9月份政策制定者最新发布预测时，他预 计今年总共会进行两次降息。他指出，自那时以来经济数据没有太大变化。 今年年初，在特朗普政府宣布大幅提高关税之前，古尔斯比曾表示，美联储官员可能在未来12-18个月 内将利率降至所谓的中性水平，即利率既不抑制也不刺激经济的水平。 在因联邦政府停摆而推迟至周四发布的9月就业报告中，即使失业率上升，招 ...

We are just seconds away from that delayed jobs number. We're watching the futures this morning. They're up sharply ahead of that because of what we heard from Nvidia last night.Dow futures up by about 250 points. S&P futures up by over 80. The Nasdaq now indicated up by about 5 or 425 points.Take a look at what's been happening in the Treasury market. We have seen higher yields. The 10ear sitting right at 415.The 2-year at 361 ahead of all of this. Rick Santelli is standing by at the CME in Chicago. And Ri ...

Core Points - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release the October jobs report due to a lack of data collection during the government shutdown [1] - The collection period for November 2025 data will be extended, with the new release date set for December 16 instead of December 5 [2] - The Federal Reserve will lack timely jobs data before its last meeting of the year on December 9 and 10, as the last full jobs report was released in early September [3] - Following the BLS announcement, the prediction of a hold in the December Federal Reserve meeting increased from approximately 50% to 66% [4] - The BLS will not publish a separate Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September, including that data in the October report scheduled for December 9 [4] - The government shutdown lasted for a record 43 days, affecting funding and operations across all agencies [4]

本周金银价格重心继续下移，周二，国际金价围绕4000美元/盎司震荡，国际白银价格重心已经下破50 美元/盎司关口。 东证衍生品研究院贵金属研究员徐颖表示，贵金属价格在上周五便开始回调，主要受近期美联储多位官 员发表"鹰派"讲话影响，市场对12月的降息预期明显"降温"，货币政策短期缺乏增量刺激，流动性尚未 快速释放。另外，随着美国政府重新"开门"，关税问题出现边际缓和迹象，美国对瑞士关税从39%下调 至15%，市场避险情绪下降，也对贵金属价格不利。 "如果本周公布的9月非农数据表现较好，下月初公布的11月非农数据也保持韧性，那么美联储确实有暂 停一次降息的空间，后续市场或将进一步交易'鹰派'预期，推动美债利率和美元反弹，并施压金银价 格；反之，如果任意一次月度新增就业意外转负，降息预期可能迅速回升，引发金银价格迅速反弹。" 吴梓杰分析表示。 值得注意的是，近几日美联储多位官员对12月降息持谨慎或反对的态度。究其原因，中信建投期货贵金 属分析师王彦青表示，主要在于美国通胀仍处于高位，且无明确证据表明通胀正回到2%的目标水平。 此外，近期美国政府"停摆"导致的经济数据缺失亦是美联储官员谨慎态度的来源，在缺失决策依据 ...