Group 1 - The report by Teneo indicates that approximately 78% of surveyed investors expect an improvement in the global economic situation in the second half of the year, while CFOs are more cautious due to challenges such as artificial intelligence, tariffs, and geopolitical issues [1] - Over half of CFOs and nearly 40% of investors view market volatility as a major obstacle to mergers and acquisitions, with other significant barriers including geopolitical uncertainty, high financing costs, and a lack of quality acquisition targets [1] - 71% of CFOs are actively adjusting their M&A strategies, with disruptive technologies, particularly AI, identified by 42% of respondents as a key catalyst for M&A activity [1] Group 2 - CFOs are implementing several key initiatives to adapt to the new economic landscape, including reshaping supply chains, adjusting capital expenditures, optimizing sales, general and administrative expenses, and lowering profit expectations [2] - The operational environment is significantly influenced by global trade changes, tariff adjustments, market fluctuations, and regulatory and political uncertainties, leading CFOs to adopt long-term strategic adjustments in core areas such as recruitment and R&D investment [2] - Both CFOs and institutional investors maintain a cautiously optimistic view on bond market financing capabilities and current debt levels, suggesting that the variable environment presents strategic opportunities for forward-looking market participants [2]

美联储威廉姆斯：过去一个月市场波动已趋于更为正常。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：尽管市场波动剧烈，但尚未发现任何裂痕。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that market volatility is expected given the adjustments in policy by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Williams indicates that fluctuations in the market are a natural response to policy changes [1]

Group 1 - The unpredictability of the trade war initiated by President Trump has significant implications for inflation, which is more uncertain than its impact on economic growth [1] - The assessment of global events' impact on the UK is deemed "too unpredictable" [2] - April saw substantial short-term changes in market positions, indicating a challenging global situation and a reflection on the over-allocation of dollar positions by investors [3] Group 2 - Oil prices experienced significant fluctuations overnight [4]

英国央行行长贝利：四月份的市场波动意味着我们正从全球角度审视一个困难的局势。 ...

Group 1 - Market fluctuations are an inherent part of equity investments, with historical data showing that the S&P 500 index has experienced approximately one 10% market correction each year from 1977 to 2016, yet it has provided positive returns 75% of the time during that period [2][4] - The Chinese market, represented by the CSI 300 index, exhibits a similar trend where significant market corrections often present new investment opportunities despite annual fluctuations [4] Group 2 - Predicting market movements is deemed impractical due to the complex and chaotic nature of capital markets, making it essential to maintain a healthy skepticism towards consensus predictions while being open to well-founded non-consensus forecasts [6] - Emotional responses to market events can lead to irrational investment decisions, as evidenced by research indicating that investors tend to become increasingly pessimistic about losing stocks and overly optimistic about winning stocks [7][8] Group 3 - Establishing a simple and executable investment plan, such as dollar-cost averaging, can help mitigate the impact of market volatility and emotional decision-making [10] - Diversifying asset allocation is recommended to reduce risk, with research indicating that asset allocation contributes 88% to the returns of diversified portfolios, while stock selection and timing account for only 12% [11][13] Group 4 - Long-term investment perspectives are crucial, as historical data shows that the S&P 500 index has achieved an average annual return of 10.43% over 10-year periods from 1937 to 2018, despite economic downturns and wars [14] - The CSI Fund Index has demonstrated a total return exceeding five times from 2003 to mid-2019, with annualized returns of 12% for mixed funds and 12.86% for equity funds, indicating strong long-term performance in the Chinese market [14][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience of capital markets despite significant volatility, highlighting the importance of price discovery in a fluctuating environment [1] - The UK financial system is undergoing extensive reforms to maintain its status as a leading global financial center, including significant changes to listing mechanisms to enhance competitiveness for companies from Hong Kong and the UK [1] - The development of both public and private markets is crucial for providing companies with diverse financing channels, reflecting a commitment to continuous improvement in the financial infrastructure [1] Group 2 - The UK is recognized for having one of the largest pension systems globally, with ongoing investments in financial infrastructure and technology aimed at enhancing productivity and economic growth [2] - The emphasis on internationalization is evident, with the UK being home to one of the largest offshore markets outside of Hong Kong, reinforcing its position in the global financial landscape [2]

10年期美国国债收益率今日上行3个基点至4.43%，表现逊于德国同类债券。交易员削减了对美联储降 息的押注，预计年底前降息幅度为46个基点，而上周五为49个基点。经济学家表示，市场波动剧烈，投 资者涌向避险资产并推高原油价格。这可能导致10年期美国国债收益率进一步上升。 ...

dbg markets发现在全球经济持续紧张局势的阴霾笼罩下艰难前行，能源价格的下行曾被视为少数令人欣 慰的利好因素之一，为经济增长带来些许动力。然而，随着以色列对伊朗目标发动空袭，这一短暂的 "顺风" 迅速转变为阻碍经济发展的 "逆风"，全球经济再次陷入动荡不安的局面。 彭博经济研究分析师韦尔奇（Jennifer Welch）、法拉尔（Adam Farrar）和欧乐鹰（Tom Orlik）进一步 指出，对于美国而言，油价的持续大幅上涨，将与特朗普时期遗留的对等关税政策产生 "共振"，共同 加剧国内的通胀压力。彭博首席美国经济学家安娜・王（Anna Wong）通过严谨的测算表明，若布伦特 原油价格涨至 100 美元 / 桶，美国各标号汽油价格将随之上涨 17%，均价会从 3.25 美元 / 加仑跃升至 4.2 美元 / 加仑，这一价格变动将直接推动 6 月消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅飙升至 3.2%。在后疫 情时代通胀飙升的阴影尚未完全消散，且通胀预期存在脱锚风险的情况下，美联储主席鲍威尔及其同僚 面临着前所未有的艰难挑战，如何在稳定物价与促进经济增长之间找到平衡，成为摆在他们面前的一道 难题。 本周，美 ...