Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the Bank of Japan, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, remains unchanged, indicating that Japan's core inflation rate is expected to gradually approach the 2% target [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：日本的核心通胀率仍然略低于日本央行2%的目标。 ...

金十数据5月23日讯，瑞穗证券经济学家Ryosuke Katagi说，不包括波动较大的新鲜食品和能源价格在 内，日本消费者价格指数的涨幅可能会在2026年第一季度放缓至1.5%至2.0%之间。4月份所谓的核心 CPI同比上涨3.0%，而3月份的涨幅为2.9%。该指标被认为是衡量潜在通胀的指标。Katagi表示，尽管工 资上涨，但服务价格似乎没有加速上涨的迹象，而包括大米价格飙升在内的成本推动因素预计将有所缓 解。"从稳定实现2%通胀率的角度来看，它仍然缺乏力量，"他说。 日本的核心通胀率可能在2026年初降至近1.5% ...

日本4月份核心通胀率或创两年来最快增速 金十数据5月16日讯，路透调查显示，日本4月核心通胀可能录得两年来最快增速，因能源补贴减少和食 品价格上涨，这加大了日本央行加息的压力。对19位经济学家进行的一项调查显示，日本4月份核心 CPI预计将同比上涨3.4%。这一数字将是自2023年4月以来的最高水平，而3月份为3.2%。瑞穗研究技术 的一位分析师表示："尽管从4月份开始取消高校学费将是降低成本压力的一个因素，但非易变质食品和 餐厅服务价格的修正将是推高通胀的一个因素。" ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's latest research indicates that real-time tariff effects are impacting consumer prices, with an expected increase of 0.1% in core inflation by 2025 [1] - The study confirms that tariff changes quickly and directly translate to price levels, with tariffs from 2018-2019 fully transmitted to consumer prices within two months [2] - The analysis method used in the study focuses solely on the impact of U.S. tariffs on other countries, excluding retaliatory tariffs and other potential effects on productivity and employment [1] Group 1: 2018-19 Tariff Impact Analysis - The research developed a theoretical prediction of tariff changes on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices, finding a significant and rapid impact on consumer prices [2] - The transmission coefficient for the tariffs implemented in 2018-19 was approximately 1.75, indicating a strong relationship between tariff effects and inflation [2] - The study highlighted that while tariffs significantly affected certain PCE categories, other factors contributed to overall inflation levels being below typical values from 2000-2017 [2] Group 2: 2025 Tariff Real-Time Impact Assessment - The analysis of tariffs implemented in early 2025 revealed a lower transmission coefficient of 0.54 compared to the 2018-19 tariffs [4] - The study estimated that the tariffs have already caused a 0.33 percentage point increase in core PCE prices, leading to an overall increase of 0.08 percentage points in core PCE [4] - Three main factors were identified for the lower transmission coefficient: a decrease in the share of imports from the affected countries, delayed implementation of tariff policies, and increased frequency of price adjustments by businesses due to recent inflation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in service sector inflation in the Eurozone during April is not expected to concern European Central Bank officials, as it is primarily driven by the Easter timing effect [1] Inflation Data Summary - The core inflation rate increased from 2.4% in March to 2.7% in April, exceeding expectations [1] - The service sector inflation rate rose from 3.5% to 3.9% during the same period [1] Future Outlook - Service sector inflation is anticipated to decline again in the coming months [1] - U.S. tariffs are expected to have a dampening effect on inflation in the Eurozone, paving the way for two potential interest rate cuts this year [1]

Core Insights - The rise in core inflation in the Eurozone for April should not alarm European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers as it is considered temporary, primarily driven by the service sector [1] - The core inflation rate increased from 2.4% to 2.7%, while service sector inflation rose from 3.5% to 3.9%, influenced partly by the timing of Easter [1] - A decline in oil prices and a stronger euro are expected to reduce energy inflation, leading to lower production input and import costs [1] - The impact on demand is anticipated to lower core inflation and accelerate the slowdown in wage growth [1] - This deflationary trend suggests that the ECB may consider lowering interest rates in the June meeting and then maintain rates steady [1]

与此同时，食品价格涨势依然较为显著。4月，德国食品价格同比上涨2.8%，尽管涨幅略低于3月的 3.0%，但部分品类价格仍大幅攀升。此外，服务业价格继续上升，同比增长3.9%，主要集中在保险和 餐饮等领域。（央视新闻） 数据显示，4月德国消费者价格指数环比上涨0.4%。剔除食品和能源价格波动后，核心通胀率升至 2.9%，高于3月的2.6%。其中，能源价格下跌成为本轮通胀回落的主要推手。4月能源价格同比下降 5.4%，降幅明显扩大。分析人士指出，国际油价走低与全球经济增长预期减弱密切相关，特别是受美 国单边主义贸易政策和关税措施影响，世界经济面临压力，从而抑制了能源需求。 德国联邦统计局当地时间4月30日公布的初步数据显示，今年4月德国通胀率初值为2.1%，较3月的2.2% 有所回落。这是德国连续第二个月通胀率下降，显示价格压力有所缓解。 ...