路透调查：预计未来6个月捷克克朗兑欧元汇率将下跌0.6%至24.85（此前预期为24.88）。 ...

Currency Market Overview - The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate halted its upward trend that began on June 18, fluctuating around 1.1800 during European trading on Wednesday [1] - The British Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading above 1.3700 on Thursday [1] - The Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) maintained its overnight rebound, fluctuating around 143.50 [1] - The Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD) remained in a range below the year-to-date high of 0.6590 reached on Tuesday [1] - The New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD) showed positive momentum near 0.6050 [1] - The Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) fluctuated in a narrow range around 1.3650 [1] Key Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. ADP employment figures for June at 20:15 [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that it is too early to assert whether a rate cut in July is premature, indicating flexibility in decision-making [2][4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates before autumn, with a guarantee of a cut by September at the latest [5] International Central Bank Commentary - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that current interest rates are below neutral levels, with any rate hike dependent on three inflation dynamics [7] - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde mentioned that while the mission is not complete, the goals have been achieved, emphasizing vigilance regarding inflation [8] - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that the direction of interest rates remains downward, with significant uncertainty regarding terminal rate levels [9] Technical Analysis - The EUR/USD is showing short-term overbought conditions with immediate support at 1.1800 and further support at 1.1740 and 1.1700-1.1690 [16] - The AUD/USD maintains a bullish outlook, with potential resistance at 0.6583 and further at 0.6650, while initial support is at 0.6529 [17] - The GBP/USD has shown a slight decline below the 20-period simple moving average, with next support at 1.3650 [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports mainly present daily data on various financial products, including futures price differences, spot-futures price relationships, and related economic indicators. They aim to help investors understand the current market situation and potential trends in different sectors such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and shipping industry futures. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Differences**: Provides detailed data on the current values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentile rankings of price differences for various stock index futures contracts, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, in terms of both spot-futures spreads and inter - contract spreads [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Presents the current values, changes, and historical percentile rankings of cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc. [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis and Spread Data**: Offers data on the basis (including IRR percentile), inter - contract spreads, and cross - variety spreads for different treasury bond futures contracts like TS, TF, T, and TL, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Shows domestic and international futures closing prices, spot prices, and their daily changes and percentage changes for gold and silver [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Presents basis data (including historical percentile rankings) and price ratios between different precious metal products [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Positions**: Provides information on interest rates (such as 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields), exchange rates (like the US dollar index and offshore RMB exchange rate), and inventory and position data for precious metals [5]. Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Freight Rates**: Includes Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate references, settlement price indices, and Shanghai export container freight rates, along with their daily and monthly changes [8]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Presents futures prices and basis data for shipping industry futures contracts, and their changes and percentage changes [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Offers data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators [8]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas and Domestic Data/Info**: Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events, including their time, data sources, and related countries/regions or product types [10].

Report Information - Report Date: July 2, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Big - Asset Morning Report [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - As of July 1, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.243%, 4.453%, 3.250% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.035% (UK) to 0.052% (Japan), weekly changes from - 0.119% (Brazil) to 0.063% (Germany), monthly changes from - 0.213% (US) to 0.183% (Switzerland), and annual changes from - 0.961% (Japan) to 0.371% (UK) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 1, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.730%, 3.821%, 1.844% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.013% (Germany) to 0.030% (US), weekly changes from - 0.170% (US) to 0.026% (South Korea), monthly changes from - 0.230% (US) to 0.063% (Germany), and annual changes from - 1.424% (Italy) to 0.438% (Japan) [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - As of July 1, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc. were 5.459, 108.000 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.65% (South African rand) to 0.50% (Brazilian real), weekly changes from - 1.20% (Malaysian ringgit) to 0.00% (Russian ruble), monthly changes from - 3.19% (Brazilian real) to 0.00% (Russian ruble), and annual changes from - 11.54% (Thai baht) to 0.49% (Brazilian real) [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 1, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc. were 6198.010, 44494.940 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 1.24% (Nikkei) to 1.88% (Thai index), weekly changes from - 0.45% (South Korean index) to 3.26% (Dow Jones), monthly changes from - 1.84% (Indian index) to 6.78% (Nikkei), and annual changes from - 15.03% (Thai index) to 33.52% (Hang Seng Index) [3] Credit Bond Indices - As of July 1, 2025, the US investment - grade corporate bond index, euro - area investment - grade corporate bond index, etc. were 3428.740, 263.071 respectively. The latest changes ranged from 0.04% (euro - area high - yield corporate bond index) to 0.28% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index), weekly changes from - 0.01% (euro - area high - yield corporate bond index) to 0.95% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index), monthly changes from 0.33% (euro - area high - yield corporate bond index) to 2.22% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index), and annual changes from 6.12% (euro - area investment - grade corporate bond index) to 14.36% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index) [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. were 3457.75, 3942.76 respectively. The daily changes were 0.39% (A - shares), 0.17% (CSI 300), etc. [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 13.12, 11.26 respectively. The环比 changes were 0.05 (CSI 300), 0.05 (SSE 50), etc. [5] Risk Premium - The risk premiums of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3.70, 5.77 respectively. The环比 changes were 0.00 (CSI 300), 0.00 (SSE 50), etc. [5] Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, main board, etc. were - 746.29, - 399.28 respectively. The 5 - day average values were - 280.06 (A - shares), - 209.33 (main board), etc. [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 14660.15, 2360.70 respectively. The环比 changes were - 208.42 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets), - 527.51 (CSI 300), etc. [5] Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 56.76, - 27.91, - 66.67 respectively. The magnitudes were - 1.44% (IF), - 1.03% (IH), - 1.12% (IC) [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc. were 109.005, 106.205 respectively. The daily changes were - 0.14% (T00), - 0.10% (TF00), etc. [6] - The funding rates of R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4493%, 1.6175%, 1.6280% respectively. The daily changes were - 56.00 (R001), - 39.00 (R007), 0.00 (SHIBOR - 3M) [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the discussions of the five major central bank leaders regarding interest rates and inflation, which are crucial for global markets and investments [1][3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that interest rate decisions depend on economic data, suggesting that as long as the economy remains strong, there will be no immediate rate cuts [3]. - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that while inflation targets are nearly met, vigilance is necessary due to rising wages and potential cost pass-through to prices [3][4]. Group 2 - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey expressed a contradictory stance, stating that while the general direction of interest rates is downward, predicting the terminal rate remains uncertain due to ongoing cost pressures [4]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a conservative approach, emphasizing that interest rate hikes depend on three inflation factors, with current inflation still below target [5]. - Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong highlighted that the country remains in a monetary easing cycle, with a focus on financial stability, while noting significant tariff impacts on inflation [5]. Group 3 - Investment opportunities are identified in three main areas: first, the strong dollar and potential volatility in gold prices due to unresolved U.S. debt issues; second, sectors like renewable energy and high-end manufacturing in Europe and the UK that can benefit from slower policy shifts; third, technology stocks, particularly semiconductors and consumer electronics in Japan and South Korea, which may gain from ongoing easing policies [6].

金十数据整理：利率、通胀、关税...五大央行掌门人论坛发言重点一览 美联储主席鲍威尔： 1. 利率：当前利率低于中性水平。任何加息措施都将取决于通胀动态的三个要素。 英国央行行长贝利： 1. 利率：利率的走向仍然呈现下行趋势。终端利率的水平存在巨大的不确定性。 2. 通胀：英国的通胀完全由价格管理引起的。目前尚未看到关税对物价的影响。 3. 政策立场：货币政策仍然具有限制性，并将继续保持紧缩，预计程度将变得更加中性。 日本央行行长植田和男： 5. 政治压力：（对于特朗普的攻击）我非常专注于做好我的工作；应当避免介入政治事务。 欧洲央行行长拉加德： 1. 利率：不会承诺未来的利率路径，数据将会揭示答案。 2. 通胀：并未宣告任务完成，但目标已达到。必须保持对通胀的高度警惕。 3. 汇率：欧洲央行将在预测中考虑汇率因素。汇率反映了经济的强劲程度。 2. 通胀：潜在通胀低于物价目标。预计潜在通胀将缓慢上升。 韩国央行行长李昌镛： 1. 利率：仍继续处于宽松周期中。在决定是否进一步降息时，将密切关注金融稳定风险。 2. 关税：关税政策倾向于具有通缩效应。26%的关税和行业关税的影响将超过国内生产总值的1%。 1. 利 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：不会对汇率发表评论。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：汇率反映了我们经济的强劲程度。 ...

智通财经7月1日电，新加坡元兑美元汇率升至1.2700，为2014年10月以来的最高水平。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The current economic situation shows marginal improvement, but external uncertainties persist, with prices remaining low, posing challenges [1][2] - The monetary policy has shifted from aggressive easing to an observation period, focusing on the transmission of institutional liabilities and financing support [2] Core Insights and Arguments - As of the end of June, institutions have significantly increased their positions, leading to a low volatility in bond yields, with a notable stock-bond effect [1][5] - Market expectations for the third quarter and the second half of the year are optimistic, with opportunities in July likely stemming from previous trading strategies [6][7] - The yield curve for government bonds has steepened, indicating a more relaxed liquidity environment, with potential for funding costs to fall below policy rates [7][8] - The main trading theme for the second half of the year will focus on institutional liabilities and yield recovery, which will take time to digest [9] Important but Overlooked Content - The performance of credit bonds has been weaker compared to interest rate bonds, particularly high-grade 3A credit bonds, which have seen significant adjustments [3][11] - The impact of ETF products on the ultra-long credit bond market is significant, improving liquidity and expected to continue expanding due to policy support [16] - The current yield on 10-year government bonds is approximately 1.6%, with a need for time to digest the decline in funding costs [9] - The performance of ultra-long credit strategies in June was strong, but sustainability is in question due to the unstable liability side of public funds [10][14] - The market for perpetual bonds (二勇) performed poorly in June, with a lack of expected gains despite market synchronization [13] Future Outlook - The trading rhythm for July 2025 is challenging to predict, with key dates being early July and the end of July, which may influence market sentiment [8] - The anticipated issuance of bonds in the second half of the year is expected to be lower, alleviating supply pressure [8] - The ultra-long credit strategy is expected to face challenges due to insufficient yield protection and poor volatility resistance, necessitating careful timing in operations [19]