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美股“恐慌时刻”!特朗普或出新政搅动全球?
证券时报· 2025-02-28 15:02
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rise in investor panic and uncertainty in the U.S. financial markets, driven by disappointing earnings reports and rumors of major reforms in the economic system under the Trump administration [1][2][13]. Market Sentiment Indicators - The S&P 500 index opened mixed, with a slight decline of 0.05%, and notable drops in stocks like Dell Technologies, which fell over 6% due to underwhelming fourth-quarter revenue [1]. - The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index has surpassed levels seen during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating heightened uncertainty in economic policies [4]. - Consumer confidence indices from both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board have shown significant declines, with the former reaching its lowest level since November 2023 and the latter dropping 7 points to 98.3, the lowest in eight months [5][6]. Fear and Greed Index - CNN's Fear and Greed Index fell to 21, indicating an "extreme fear" state in the market [8]. - The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported a sharp increase in bearish sentiment, with bullish sentiment plummeting from 29.2% to 19.4%, marking a new low since March 2023 [9][10]. - Bearish sentiment surged from 40.5% to over 60%, the largest weekly increase since August 2019, reflecting significant market anxiety [10]. Investor Behavior - Despite the rising panic, the S&P 500 index is only down 3.1% from its all-time high on February 19, suggesting that extreme fear often occurs near market bottoms [11]. - Analysts note that current investor sentiment is characterized by heightened sensitivity to panic, contrasting with previous periods of complacency [12]. Potential Reforms and Their Implications - Rumors of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," a conceptual framework for major reforms in the financial system proposed by Trump, have added to market uncertainty [13][14]. - The agreement is said to aim at restructuring parts of the financial system, including trade tariffs and the value of the dollar, to enhance U.S. competitiveness [14][15]. - Analysts are assessing the potential timing and impact of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which could have implications comparable to the 1985 Plaza Accord [15].