1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to macro - emotional impacts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 24, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 284 lots. The short - term decline space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of live pigs continues to decrease. The market sentiment of the main contract (LH2509) on that day was still acceptable, with a position of about 60,000 lots. The highest price was 14,495 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month by month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices before the third - quarter peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen - product inventory, strong spot - price toughness, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, which will limit price increases. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support the price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention should be noted [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, the 01 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,550 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the 03 contract increased by 155 yuan to 13,730 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14%; the 05 contract increased by 360 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.6%; the 07 contract remained unchanged at 14,010 yuan/ton; the 09 contract decreased by 225 yuan to 14,365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.54%; the 11 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.63% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the live - pig main contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Futures Morning Report - Report Date: July 23, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Advisory Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs may decrease this week after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is also suppressed. The market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to a volatile pattern in the short term. The price of LH2509 is expected to fluctuate between 14,100 and 14,500 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of pigs both decline, and the spot price is short - term volatile and weak, and the futures follow the same pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Domestic pig inventory has declined year - on - year, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the consumption of pork enters the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a 0.8% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a 0.6% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Price**: The national average spot price is 14,310 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is - 70 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the hog price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to be abundant until December, making it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the hog price to some extent. Given that the 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and the short - term price fluctuations are limited, the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 22, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 284 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of the hog market have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is in a wide - range volatile adjustment. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,438 lots today, with a position of about 59,800 lots. The highest price today was 14,415 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,285 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,380 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of hogs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard hog price difference may strengthen. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for hog prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, and the fact that although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for the hog price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail farming group and support the hog price. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and the short - term price fluctuations of hogs are limited. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4行情概览 (Market Overview) - The report provides the futures prices of different hog contracts on July 22 and 21, including the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts, and their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the 01 contract rose by 180 yuan/ton, with a percentage increase of 1.28%, from 14,110 yuan/ton on July 21 to 14,290 yuan/ton on July 22 [6]. 3.5重点数据追踪 (Key Data Tracking) - The report shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the hog main contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in pig prices indicate a complex market situation, with a brief recovery followed by a significant decline, suggesting challenges ahead for price stability and growth potential. Group 1: Price Trends - In June, pig prices unexpectedly rose, reaching a peak of 15.5 yuan/kg, but subsequently fell for half a month, dropping below 14 yuan/kg, indicating a decline of over 1 yuan/kg overall [2][4]. - Despite a recent slight rebound in pig prices, the overall outlook for significant price increases remains bleak, as the market dynamics are shifting [4][7]. Group 2: Market Support Factors - A key support factor for the recent price increase is the reduction in the inventory of medium and large pigs, with a 0.8% decrease in June, leading to less market pressure [4][6]. - Rising feed costs, driven by increasing corn prices, have led to higher breeding costs, causing farmers to reduce the number of pigs they sell when prices drop to around 14 yuan/kg [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The pig market is facing structural changes due to large enterprises continuously expanding production and the impact of secondary fattening practices disrupting the market rhythm [8]. - Official directives to halt production expansion and reduce sales of secondary fattened pigs have altered market dynamics, diminishing the potential for price increases [8][9]. - Data indicates that the pressure for pig sales will remain high in the second half of the year, with an expected peak in piglet output and feed production [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of live pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is suppressed in the short - term due to the end of the holiday and the pessimistic macro - environment. However, the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, and the pig price will return to a volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly mid - group farm's slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [8]. - The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, and the inventory shows a certain decline in live pigs and a slight increase in breeding sows. The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that the pig price will rise and then fall this week, returning to a range - bound pattern between 13,800 and 14,200 for the LH2509 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt No specific content provided for daily prompt in the report. 3.2 Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic live pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of live pigs both decrease, and the spot price fluctuates weakly in the short term, with the futures price following a similar pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork turns weak in the short term. Affected by the double - reduction in supply and demand, the live pig spot price fluctuates weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic live pig breeding profit remains at a low level but still has short - term profit. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter is relatively good in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The live pig spot price may fluctuate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a weakly volatile pattern in the short term. When the price stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and recovery in demand [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price [11]. - Bearish factors: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of the live pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [11]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on the live pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - **Price**: The national average spot price was 14,470 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was 460 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price [8]. 3.5 Position Data The main positions are net short, with a reduction in short positions [8].

Group 1 - The pig market experiences distinct seasonal fluctuations, but these are not solely driven by demand. For instance, while the fourth quarter is typically a peak consumption period for pork, historical trends indicate that price highs often occur in July and August [2][5] - In July, pig prices initially surged, reaching 15.4 yuan per kilogram, but subsequently declined after mid-month, continuing a downward trend for over ten days [2] - The decline in pig prices is attributed to changing market sentiments, with this year's outlook being notably weaker compared to last year, which saw a strong rebound in prices [6][7] Group 2 - The increase in pig production last year has led to significant pressure on pig stocks this year, with a reported 36.619 million pigs slaughtered in the first half of the year, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, and a 1.3% rise in pork production [10] - Demand for pork remains stagnant, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance characterized by strong supply and weak demand, which has further driven down prices [13] - Although there is a possibility of price increases, the likelihood of significant price surges is low due to reduced enthusiasm for breeding and fattening pigs, coupled with unpredictable weather and rising feed costs, which have led to a more relaxed supply situation [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork may also decline due to the end of the holiday and a pessimistic macro - environment. However, the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is expected to experience a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, with pig prices returning to a volatile pattern. The target price range for LH2509 is between 14,000 and 14,400 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No content provided for a detailed summary. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig market enters a slack season, with reduced large - pig slaughter and a double - reduction in supply and demand. Spot prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and the futures market will follow a similar pattern [10]. - Pork demand weakens after the May Day holiday. The spot price of pigs is affected by the double - reduction in supply and demand, with limited downward space due to reduced slaughter [10]. - The profit of pig farming remains low, but there is still short - term profit. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter is fair in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The spot price of pigs may be volatile and weak after the May Day holiday, and the futures market will generally maintain a volatile and weak pattern. When the market stabilizes depends on future supply reduction and demand recovery [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Domestic pig inventory has declined year - on - year, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [11]. - **Bearish**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the consumption of pork enters a slack season after the May Day holiday [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side Indicators**: - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 41731 million heads, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease and a 2.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 4066 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a 0.6% year - on - year increase [8]. - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 40850 million heads, a 5.9% month - on - month decrease and a 5.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 3996 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year decrease [26]. - **Demand - side Indicators**: - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork weakens, and the consumption of fresh pork is suppressed. The tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence [8]. - The annual consumption of pork shows a month - on - month increase, indicating a recovery in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [60]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing [8].

Core Viewpoint - The sales data for June from leading pig farming companies indicates that while the average sales price has slightly decreased compared to the same period last year, profits have increased due to a significant reduction in costs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Sales and Pricing - In the first half of the year, the average sales price for pigs from Muyuan Foods was 14.46 yuan/kg, down 0.76 yuan/kg from the previous year, with a price range of 14.08 to 14.76 yuan/kg [1][3]. - The sales price decline of approximately 5% contrasts with a notable decrease in costs, which fell from over 14 yuan/kg to 12.2 yuan/kg by May [1][5]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure varies significantly among pig farming companies, with some, like Huazhong Foods, reporting costs as high as 13.7 yuan/kg, which is 1.6 yuan/kg higher than Muyuan Foods [1][6]. - Muyuan Foods' profitability has improved, with a unit profit of approximately 2.3 yuan/kg and a gross margin of around 15.8%, compared to Huazhong Foods' 0.8 yuan/kg profit and 5.5% margin [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is experiencing a narrowing fluctuation in pig prices, with expectations of marginal improvements in supply-demand dynamics in the second half of the year due to a decrease in the breeding sow inventory [8][10]. - There are differing opinions on the future price trajectory, with some analysts predicting a potential rebound in prices due to seasonal demand, while others foresee continued supply growth keeping prices stable [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that meat product prices are under pressure, leading to declining sales for breeding companies in June [1][2] - Wens Foodstuff reported sales of 104 million meat chickens in June, generating revenue of 2.288 billion yuan, with a chicken sales average price of 10.29 yuan/kg, showing month-on-month declines of 3.40%, 8.30%, and 4.28% respectively [1] - In June, Wens Foodstuff sold 3.0073 million pigs, with a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan and an average price of 14.39 yuan/kg, reflecting month-on-month changes of -4.69%, -7.57%, and -1.98% [1] Group 2 - New Hope reported sales of 1.33 million pigs in June, with a revenue of 1.871 billion yuan and an average price of 14.18 yuan/kg, showing month-on-month declines of 0.29%, 5.12%, and 2.81% respectively [1] - Juxing Agriculture announced sales of 419,900 pigs in June, with a revenue of 742 million yuan, and a 3.4% decrease in average price, while sales volume increased by 28% [2] - Xiangjia reported sales of 4.298 million live poultry in June, generating revenue of 68.1782 million yuan, with a significant decline in sales price due to market sluggishness [2] Group 3 - The industry is experiencing a seasonal consumption lull, with pig prices maintaining a fluctuating trend, and expectations for better performance in the second half of the year [2][3] - The report suggests that the supply of pigs will see limited growth by 2025, and high-quality pig enterprises may still achieve considerable profits [3] - The industry is currently operating at a marginal profit, with large pig enterprises focusing on increasing capacity utilization to reduce breeding costs [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the pig market this week may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 14,100 - 14,500 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of live pigs may experience a double - reduction in pigs and meat this week after the May Day holiday. The demand is also affected by the post - holiday decline in consumer enthusiasm. The market is expected to be in a state of double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to an oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the group farms' slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market at the end of the month [8]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter and a double - reduction in supply and demand. The spot price is short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures follow a similar pattern [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited further decline in domestic live pig spot prices [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season after May Day [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side Data**: As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - **Price Data**: The national average spot price is 15,370 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 1,000 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [8]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [8].