今年，养殖端产能释放。从3月直到5月中旬，猪价基本处于持续横盘状态，难涨难跌。 猪价年内低点 是否已过？机构分析，5—10月猪价或震荡下滑，年内低点或出现在四季度。 据农业农村部监测，5月16日，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.94元/公斤，与上周五（5月9 日）的20.62元/公斤相比，上涨1.6%。本周的平均价格为20.88元/公斤，与上周均价持平。 本周国内生 猪价格以下跌为主，周均价环比下滑。 另据中国养猪网的数据，5月16日，生猪（外三元）价格为14.74元/公斤，与上周五（5月9日）的14.86 元/公斤相比，下降0.8%。从一周均价来看，本周生猪均价为14.81元/公斤，与上周14.87元/公斤相比， 下降0.4%。 在供应方面，自2024年5月起，国内能繁母猪存栏量开始增加，到2025年3月，适重生猪供应能力有所回 升。2025年4月至9月，生猪出栏水平预计会显著提升。因此，2025年5月国内适重猪源供应将增加，标 猪出栏计划也会增多。春节后养殖端控重挺价，中小标猪出栏意愿不高，导致当前生猪出栏均重达到 124.12公斤。随着南北地区气温的上升，标肥价差倒挂明显， 市场对中大猪的需求不足 ...

智通财经5月17日电，据农业农村部监测，5月16日，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.94元/公 斤，与上周五（5月9日）的20.62元/公斤相比，上涨1.6%。本周的平均价格为20.88元/公斤，与上周均 价持平。本周国内生猪价格下跌为主，周均价环比下滑。据中国养猪网的数据，5月16日，生猪（外三 元）价格为14.74元/公斤，与上周五（5月9日）的14.86元/公斤相比，下降0.8%。从一周均价来看，本 周生猪均价为14.81元/公斤，与上周14.87元/公斤相比，下降0.4%。开源证券认为，4月猪价淡季不淡， 5月供给缺口传导将至叠加需求边际向好，猪价中枢或进一步抬升。展望后市，供给端前期能繁淘汰缺 口及冬春季腹泻病毒变异流行仔猪损失缺口传导将至，5月生猪出栏增量有限，需求端猪肉消费边际向 好。内外因素共同驱动下，5月猪价中枢或延续抬升态势，2025年猪价中枢有支撑。 (澎湃) 本周猪价继续下探 机构预计今年猪价中枢有支撑 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, the national average selling price of live pigs was 14.80 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 1.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.95% [6][18] - The supply gap in May is expected to lead to a further increase in the price center of live pigs, driven by limited increases in supply and improving demand [6][18] - The average weight of pigs sold is expected to gradually decline, but the narrowing price difference between different grades of pigs will have limited pressure on prices [7][22] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - April saw a non-seasonal increase in pig prices, with expectations for further price increases in May due to supply constraints and improving demand [6][18] - The average price of live pigs in April was 14.80 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 1.33% [6][18] - The slaughter volume in April was 4.213 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 4.54% but a year-on-year increase of 6.76% [6][18] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs is expected to be limited in May due to previous culling and disease impacts, while demand for pork is showing marginal improvement [6][18] - The planned output for May is expected to increase by 1.98% compared to actual output in April [6][18] Profitability and Market Performance - The average profit for self-bred pigs in April was 69.44 yuan/head, a month-on-month increase of 63.63% [8][26] - The number of breeding sows in April increased by 0.96% month-on-month [8][26] - The price of 15kg piglets reached 630 yuan/head, indicating a high price level during the replenishment season [8][26] Company Performance - In April, 12 listed pig farming companies collectively sold 16.2368 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 37.22% [9][28] - Major companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs reported significant year-on-year increases in sales volume [9][28] - The average selling prices varied among companies, with some experiencing increases while others saw declines [9][35]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-05-13 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，五一小长假结束，国内出栏积极性减弱生猪价格节前小幅反弹节后或回归弱势 ，预计节后本周供给或猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，五一假期结束居民整体 消费意愿热情回落，压制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征关税，提振市场 信心。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期呈震荡偏弱格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏 变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价14710元/吨，2509合约基差840元/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 ...

2025年5月14日 行情宝明日猪价 01 明日猪价 | | | 行情宝5月14日价格参考 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 省份 | 猪价(元/公斤) | 涨跌 | | 东北 | 黑龙江 | 14.2-14.8 | 稳 | | | 吉林 | 14.0-15.0 | 稳 | | | 辽宁 | 13.9-15.0 | 弱稳 | | 华北 | 内蒙古 | 14.4-15.0 | 稳 | | | 山西 | 14.6-15.1 | 稳 | | | 河北 | 14.7-15.3 | 稳 | | | 河南 | 14.6-15.4 | 稳 | | से | 湖北 | 14.6-15.1 | 稳 | | | 湖南 | 14.2-14.7 | 稳 | | | 江西 | 214.4-15.2 | 稳 | | 华东 | 川东 | 2 14.9-15.6 | 稳 | | | 安徽う | 15.1-15.5 | 稳 | | | 浙江 | 15.2-15.7 | 稳 | | | 江苏 | 15.3-15.7 | 稳 | | | 福建 | 14.6-15.1 | 稳 | | 中南 | 广东 | 14 ...

Core Viewpoint - The live pig market is experiencing a prolonged period of low prices due to an oversupply and weak terminal demand, with expectations of continued price declines into 2025 [1][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of May 9, the average price of live pigs in the mainstream market is 14.78 yuan/kg, down 1.54 yuan/kg from the beginning of the year, indicating a weak price trend [1]. - The slaughtering rate has decreased to 34.53%, down 1.05 percentage points from before the Labor Day holiday, reflecting a return to normal demand levels post-holiday [2]. - The daily slaughter volume tracked by 134 pig slaughtering enterprises is at its highest level since 2019, while frozen product inventory rates have increased to 18.93%, suggesting continued supply pressure [3]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The price of piglets has also declined, with the average price for 7 kg three-way cross piglets at 537.78 yuan/head, down 13.05 yuan/head from April's peak, indicating reduced market activity [4]. - The overall supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to limit the willingness to replenish stocks, leading to further declines in piglet prices [5]. Breeding Stock and Future Projections - The number of breeding sows has shown a slight decrease, with 40.39 million reported in March 2025, down 0.66% from previous months, which may lead to a decline in live pig output starting in late 2025 [6]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs has increased to 126.51 kg/head, up 4.28 kg/head from January's low, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics if secondary fattening operations increase [7]. Profitability and Market Outlook - Despite the decline in live pig prices, breeding profits remain positive, with profits for self-breeding at 226 yuan/head, down 152 yuan/head from the start of the year, suggesting that the industry has not yet faced significant losses [8]. - The expectation is for continued weak prices in the short to medium term, with potential for a turnaround in the third quarter if breeding capacity continues to decrease [8].

每经记者 胥帅 每经编辑 董兴生 牧原股份表示，业绩同比增长原因主要为报告期内生猪出栏量、生猪销售均价较去年同期上升，叠加养 殖成本的持续下降。 4月24日，养猪龙头牧原股份（002714.SZ，股价40.52元，市值2213.51亿元）发布2025年一季度报告。 今年第一季度，公司实现营业收入360.61亿元，同比增长37.26%；实现净利润46.19亿元，同比增长 287.87%。 当日晚间，公司首席财务官高曈和董秘秦军出席了财报电话会，进一步向外界回应养殖成本、"出海"战 略等备受关注的问题。 高曈在电话会上表示，今年一季度，公司成本下降空间符合预期，也符合公司现在的管理水平。公司对 未来的成本持续下降也有信心，猪群业绩持续改善是最强的信心来源。同时，他也提到今年的猪价走 势，对今年下半年的猪价预期感到乐观。 "600元成本空间已经挖潜了400元" 公告显示，牧原股份第一季度实现营业收入360.61亿元，同比增长37.26%；实现净利润46.19亿元，同 比增长287.87%；实现归母净利润44.91亿元，同比增加288.79%。 当日晚间，牧原股份召开电话会，介绍了一些具体的养殖数据，第一季度销售生猪 ...

Group 1 - Recent pork prices have unexpectedly risen, with analysts suggesting that this short-term increase may not alter the downward trend expected in the future [1][2] - As of April 21, the price of live pigs reached 15.01 yuan/kg, marking a nearly 4% increase from 14.44 yuan/kg on February 13 [1] - Huatai Securities attributes the recent price increase to seasonal factors and inventory adjustments, while also noting that the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the future due to rising breeding stock and piglet numbers [1] Group 2 - The current pig market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices remaining stable due to the influence of secondary fattening [2] - As temperatures rise, the demand for pork may weaken, leading to a forecast of fluctuating prices in the short term [2] - Both Huatai Futures and Ruida Futures anticipate that while short-term prices may remain stable, there are medium-term risks of price declines due to potential increases in supply [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs decreased after the Spring Festival, with reduced enthusiasm for slaughter, and the pig price fluctuated slightly. It is expected that both the supply of pigs and pork will decrease this week. - The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook, and the demand for fresh pork is weak after the Spring Festival. However, the recent tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. - Overall, the market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week, and the pig price will return to a range - bound pattern with a slight fluctuation in the weekly price center. - The LH2509 contract of live pigs should be traded within the range of 14,200 to 14,600 intraday [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt The document does not provide relevant content. 2. Recent News - China's recent tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. The domestic pig consumption market is in a seasonal off - season, with reduced large - pig slaughter, resulting in a decrease in both supply and demand. The spot price remains volatile, and the futures are strongly volatile due to basis support. - After the release of pork demand during the Spring Festival, it weakened in the short term. The spot price of live pigs was relatively strong due to reduced slaughter, but the downstream consumption expectation was poor, and the overall spot price was still weak. - The profit of domestic pig farming has declined from its high level but still has short - term profit. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has decreased, and the light supply supports the expected price of live pig futures and spot [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Decreased supply of live pigs after the Spring Festival in China; Tariff increase on imported pork from the US and Canada [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Monthly increase in the domestic live pig inventory; The entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season, which suppresses the pork price [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: After the Spring Festival, the supply of live pigs decreased, and the demand was also weak. The market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week, and the pig price will return to a range - bound pattern [8]. - **Basis**: The national average spot price is 14,860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 535 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: As of December 31, the live pig inventory was 427.43 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. As of the end of November 2024, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [8]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [8]. 5. Position Data The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [8].