Core Viewpoint - The sales reports of A-share listed pig companies for September 2025 indicate a mixed trend in sales volume and revenue, with a general decline in sales prices both month-on-month and year-on-year [1][4]. Sales Performance Summary - Tianbang Food reported sales of 612,700 pigs in September 2025, generating revenue of 634 million yuan, with an average selling price of 13.69 yuan/kg, showing month-on-month changes of 15.68% in volume, 2.14% in revenue, and a decline of 8.88% in price [2]. - Dabeinong's sales for September 2025 reached 373,700 pigs, with revenue of 541 million yuan. The sales volume increased by 6.10% month-on-month and 33.08% year-on-year, while revenue saw a month-on-month increase of 3.64% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.24% [2]. - Muyuan Foods sold 5.573 million pigs in September 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 11.05%. The average selling price was 12.88 yuan/kg, down 30.94% year-on-year, and total revenue was 9.066 billion yuan, down 22.46% year-on-year [3]. - Wens Foodstuffs sold 3.3253 million pigs, generating revenue of 4.975 billion yuan, with an average price of 13.18 yuan/kg. The sales volume and revenue showed mixed trends compared to previous months [3]. - New Hope reported sales of 1.3942 million pigs, with revenue of 1.746 billion yuan and an average price of 12.89 yuan/kg, reflecting a decline in price year-on-year [3]. Price Trends - Since October 2025, pig prices have continued to decline, with the market price dropping to 12.50 yuan/kg by October 10, down from 12.59 yuan/kg at the end of September [5]. - The wholesale price of pork has also decreased, reaching 18.85 yuan/kg on October 10, down from 19.40 yuan/kg at the end of September [5]. - Futures prices for live pigs have seen a significant drop, with a cumulative decline of approximately 9% in September and over 8% in the first two trading days of October [6]. Future Price Outlook - Long-term forecasts suggest that the pig farming industry is entering a pressure period, with potential for continued price declines. However, government policies aimed at stabilizing prices may mitigate the duration and extent of this pressure [7]. - Mid-term expectations indicate that pig prices may remain under pressure due to supply-demand dynamics, despite some consumption recovery. The market is likely to experience a "supply-demand increase" scenario, maintaining a loose supply condition [7].

Core Insights - The sales reports of A-share listed pig companies for September 2025 show varied trends in sales volume and revenue, with a general decline in average selling prices both month-on-month and year-on-year [1][4]. Sales Performance - Tianbang Food reported sales of 612,700 pigs in September 2025, generating revenue of 634 million yuan, with an average selling price of 13.69 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 8.88% [2]. - Dabeinong's sales reached 373,700 pigs, with revenue of 541 million yuan, showing a month-on-month sales volume increase of 6.10% but a year-on-year revenue decline of 6.24% [2]. - Muyuan Foods sold 5.573 million pigs, with a revenue of 9.066 billion yuan, experiencing a year-on-year sales volume increase of 11.05% but a significant decline in average selling price by 30.94% [3]. - Wens Foodstuff reported sales of 3.3253 million pigs, generating 4.975 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year sales volume increase of 32.46% but a decline in average selling price by 30.81% [3]. - New Hope sold 1.3942 million pigs, with revenue of 1.746 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year sales volume increase of 16.92% but a significant decline in average selling price by 31.47% [3]. Price Trends - Since October 2025, pig prices have continued to decline, with the market price dropping to 12.50 yuan/kg by October 10, down from 12.59 yuan/kg at the end of September [5]. - The wholesale price of pork has also decreased, reaching 18.85 yuan/kg by October 10, compared to 19.40 yuan/kg at the end of September [5]. - Futures prices for live pigs have seen a significant drop, with a cumulative decline of approximately 9% in September and over 8% in the first two trading days of October [6]. Future Outlook - The pig farming industry is entering a pressure period, with expectations of continued price pressure in the coming months due to supply-demand dynamics [7]. - The government is focused on stabilizing prices, which may shorten the duration of this pressure period [7]. - Current market conditions suggest a potential "supply-demand increase" scenario, with expectations that pig prices will remain under pressure in October [7].

Core Viewpoint - The sales reports of A-share listed pig companies for September 2025 indicate a mixed trend in sales volume and revenue, with a general decline in sales prices both month-on-month and year-on-year [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance of Major Companies - Tianbang Food reported sales of 612,700 pigs in September 2025, with a revenue of 634 million yuan and an average selling price of 13.69 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month decline in average price by 8.88% [2]. - Dabeinong's sales reached 373,700 pigs with a revenue of 541 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month sales volume increase of 6.10% but a year-on-year revenue decline of 6.24% [2]. - Muyuan Foods sold 5.573 million pigs, with a revenue of 9.066 billion yuan and an average price of 12.88 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year price drop of 30.94% [3]. - Wens Foodstuffs sold 3.3253 million pigs, generating a revenue of 4.975 billion yuan, with a year-on-year average price decrease of 30.81% [3]. - New Hope sold 1.3942 million pigs, with a revenue of 1.746 billion yuan and an average price of 12.89 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year price drop of 31.47% [3]. Group 2: Price Trends - Since October 2025, pig prices have continued to decline, with the market price dropping to 12.50 yuan/kg by October 10, down from 12.59 yuan/kg at the end of September [5]. - The wholesale price of pork has also decreased, reaching 18.85 yuan/kg on October 10, down from 19.40 yuan/kg at the end of September [5]. - Futures prices for live pigs have seen a significant drop, with a cumulative decline of approximately 9% in September and over 8% in the first two trading days of October [6]. Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Long-term forecasts suggest that the pig farming industry is entering a pressure period, with the current price decline not yet reaching historical averages [7]. - Mid-term expectations indicate continued pressure on pig prices over the next three months, despite some consumption recovery [7]. - Current market conditions suggest a supply-demand imbalance, with expectations of sustained low prices and limited rebound potential in the near future [7].

Core Viewpoint - The sales reports of A-share listed pig companies for September 2025 indicate a downward trend in sales prices, with varying changes in sales volume and revenue among different companies [2][7]. Group 1: Sales Performance of Major Companies - Tianbang Food reported sales of 612,700 pigs in September 2025, with a revenue of 634 million yuan and an average selling price of 13.69 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month decrease in average price by 8.88% [4]. - Dabeinong's sales for September 2025 were 373,700 pigs, generating a revenue of 541 million yuan, with a sales price of 12.91 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase in sales volume by 33.08% but a revenue decrease of 6.24% [4]. - Muyuan Foods sold 5.573 million pigs in September 2025, with a revenue of 9.066 billion yuan and an average price of 12.88 yuan/kg, showing a significant year-on-year price drop of 30.94% [5]. - Wens Foodstuffs sold 3.3253 million pigs, generating 4.975 billion yuan in revenue, with an average price of 13.18 yuan/kg, indicating a year-on-year revenue decline of 30.81% [5]. - New Hope sold 1.3942 million pigs, with a revenue of 1.746 billion yuan and an average price of 12.89 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year price drop of 31.47% [6]. Group 2: Market Price Trends - Since October, pig prices have continued to decline, with the market price dropping to 12.50 yuan/kg by October 10, 2025, down from 12.59 yuan/kg at the end of September [9]. - The wholesale price of pork has also decreased, reaching 18.85 yuan/kg by October 10, 2025, compared to 19.40 yuan/kg at the end of September [9]. - Futures prices for live pigs have seen a significant drop, with a cumulative decline of about 9% in September and over 8% in the first two trading days of October [10]. Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Long-term forecasts suggest that the pig farming industry is entering a pressure period, with potential for continued price declines, although government policies may mitigate the duration and extent of this pressure [12]. - Mid-term expectations indicate that pig prices may remain under pressure for the next three months due to supply and demand dynamics, with larger scale farming operations dominating the market [12]. - Current market conditions suggest a loose supply-demand balance, with expectations that pig prices will continue to face downward pressure in October [13].

Core Viewpoint - The market is in a bearish trend with a strong supply and weak demand dynamic. The recent decline in pig prices during the holiday period reflects a significant increase in supply, while demand has not matched this increase, indicating that the bottom for pig prices may not have been reached yet [4]. Supply and Demand Logic - Short-term supply pressure continues with no positive drivers for pig prices, which are currently weak. The average price in many regions has fallen below 12 yuan per kilogram. The post-holiday demand is expected to decline, leading to sustained pressure on supply and prices [8]. - In the medium to long term, the supply base is established, and the overall trend for pig prices is expected to remain weak. There is potential for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, but speculative demand may influence short-term price movements [10]. Breeding and Slaughtering - The breeding sector is experiencing increased output, with the average weight of pigs being slightly reduced, indicating a stronger willingness to sell among farmers. However, the overall weight remains high compared to the same period last year, suggesting continued pressure [20][21]. - The slaughtering industry is seeing a post-holiday decline in operational rates and slaughter volumes, with average daily slaughtering volume dropping by 4.53% [35][36]. Cost and Profit Analysis - The breeding costs have remained relatively stable, but profits are being heavily influenced by falling pig prices. Currently, the breeding sector is experiencing losses, with self-breeding profits at approximately -135.62 yuan per head [48]. - The price of piglets continues to decline, leading to negative profits for piglet sales, which may affect the overall production capacity in the future [52]. Price Structure - The market is characterized by oversupply, leading to continued declines in spot prices. The price difference between fat and lean pigs has widened, indicating a more significant drop in lean pig prices compared to fat pigs [28][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, with a potential bottom - out and rebound in the medium - term, maintaining a volatile pattern. The LH2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. - The Chinese government's decision to impose additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. However, the domestic pig consumption market is affected by the approaching off - season. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply and demand of pigs have both decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound oscillation in the medium - term [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The domestic macro - environment shows some improvement, but consumer willingness has weakened after the holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market is expected to have a double - decline in supply and demand, with pig prices being weak in the short - term and potentially bottoming out and rebounding in the medium - term [10]. - **Basis**: The national average spot price is 12,180 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 645 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [10]. - **Expectation**: In the near future, both supply and demand of pigs have started to decrease. Pig prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week, with the LH2601 contract oscillating in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the festivals, the supply and demand of pigs have decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound oscillation in the medium - term [12]. - After the festivals, pork demand has weakened in the short - term, but the spot price has returned to a volatile state due to reduced supply. The room for further price decline may be limited, and it may show a bottom - out and rebound trend [12]. - The losses in pig farming profits have recently expanded, reducing the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter in the short - term. The double - decline in supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [12]. - After the National Day, the pig spot price has remained stable, and the futures market has generally returned to a range - bound oscillation pattern. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the China - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report provides the prices of pig futures (near - month 2511, main 2601), pig futures warrants, and the spot prices of outer - ternary pigs in different regions from September 22 to September 30 [14]. - **Inventory Data**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a 5.9% month - on - month decrease and a 5.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year decrease [28]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data is summarized in the report, only that the main position is net short and short positions are increasing [10].

Group 1 - The average wholesale price of pork in China's agricultural markets decreased to 19.42 CNY/kg on September 26, down 0.3% from 19.48 CNY/kg on September 19, and down 0.9% from the weekly average of 19.52 CNY/kg compared to 19.7 CNY/kg the previous week [1] - The average price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 12.51 CNY/kg on September 26, a decrease of 2.2% from 12.79 CNY/kg on September 19, and the weekly average price fell by 3.2% from 13.05 CNY/kg to 12.63 CNY/kg [1] - The average trading weight of live pigs was reported at 124.66 kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.05% week-on-week, with variations across provinces due to different market conditions [3] Group 2 - The price of live pigs (external three yuan) was recorded at 13 CNY/kg in mid-September, a decline of 0.7 CNY/kg or 5.1% compared to early September [4] - The average pig-to-grain price ratio in Guangdong province was 5.64:1, remaining within the 5:1 to 6:1 range for three consecutive weeks, indicating a stable market condition [4] - The market is expected to see a short-term increase in demand due to the upcoming double festival, but supply pressures are likely to continue, limiting significant price rebounds [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week as large domestic farms are more willing to sell pigs before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, while consumer demand for fresh pork is also boosted by the approaching holidays and the start of the school term. The market is likely to see both increased supply and demand, with short - term weak pig prices and a mid - term trend of bottoming out and then fluctuating. The price of LH2511 is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 and 13,000 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamental situation shows that supply and demand are both increasing. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The inventory shows an increase in pig and sow stocks. The price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing. The expected price of LH2511 will fluctuate between 12,600 and 13,000 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. As the holidays approach, the supply and demand of pigs are both increasing, with short - term weak spot prices and mid - term price fluctuations. The short - term improvement in pork demand is affected by increased supply, and the price may bottom out after the National Day. The loss of pig - farming profits has expanded, and the short - term price of pigs is supported by the increase in supply and demand [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the peak consumption season before the long holiday and limited room for further decline in the spot price. Bearish factors are the pessimistic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the year - on - year increase in pig inventory. The current main logic is the focus on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from September 16th to 24th, including prices of different contracts and spot prices in various regions [14]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the document

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of the domestic pig market are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound in the short term, maintaining a volatile pattern. The market should focus on the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals show that in September, the domestic market is gradually entering the peak season of supply and demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. The enthusiasm for domestic slaughter has increased, and the pig price is expected to maintain short - term fluctuations. It is expected that the supply of pigs and meat will increase this week. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, and the overall consumption willingness of residents has increased with the approaching of the school season and long holidays, which boosts the short - term fresh pork consumption and market confidence. The base price indicates that the national average spot price is 12,560 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is 105 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory shows that as of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; as of the end of June, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The market trend shows that the price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. The main positions are net long, with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the supply and demand of live pigs will pick up recently, and the pig price will maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week, with the LH2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the United States and Canada have boosted market confidence. Affected by the off - season, with the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the slaughter of large pigs has increased, resulting in an increase in both supply and demand of live pigs. The spot price has returned to short - term fluctuations, and the futures price has also shown a range - bound pattern. Recently, the high - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. The spot price of live pigs has fluctuated weakly due to the increase in supply, but the decline may be limited due to the gradual recovery of demand. The domestic pig farming profit has remained at a low level, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is currently good, and the increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot. The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate strongly before the National Day, and the futures price will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include that the domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price may be limited. Bearish factors include the pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment affected by the Sino - US tariff war and the year - on - year increase in domestic live pig inventory. The current main logic is that the market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from September 15 to September 23, including prices of the main 2511 contract, far - month 2601 contract, 2411 contract, and spot prices in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Hunan, and Guangdong. It also shows various charts related to the fundamentals of live pigs, including the basis and spread trends of live pig futures, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs in the spot market, and the supply - side indicators such as pig prices, piglet indicators, inventory, pork imports, fattening costs, feed profit expectations, slaughter, profit, and substitution. On the demand side, it includes consumption trends, pig - grain ratio, and the situation of purchase and release of reserves [14]. 5. Position Data - Not explicitly summarized in the given content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support to the pig price. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, but the pig price may rebound at the end of the year. In this case, an inverse spread strategy between the 11 - 01 contracts can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 17, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs. The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 9,219 lots in positions today, with a total position of about 94,100 lots. The highest price was 13,160 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,995 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. The bearish factors include slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in September and October. The bullish factors include weight reduction by farmers benefiting the future market, improved consumption after the weather turns cool, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be in a volatile adjustment phase. The core logic is that, based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the weak price continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and an inverse spread strategy between the 11 - 01 contracts can be considered (for reference only, not an investment recommendation) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 17, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.95 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.99% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 13.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.14%. In Sichuan, it was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.78%. Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton or 1.24%; the 03 contract remained unchanged at 13,005 yuan/ton; the 05 contract was 13,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15%; the 07 contract was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 0.42%; the 09 contract was 12,985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 0.88%; the 11 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton or 1.22%. The main basis in Henan was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 33.33% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking No detailed summary information provided other than the display of data charts, including the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between 01 - 03 contracts [14].