Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the dual strategy opportunities in the pig farming industry, highlighting the potential for price rebounds in 2026 despite a year-on-year decline in pig prices due to production capacity adjustments and industry losses [1] Group 1: CPI and Pork Prices - In December, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with food prices rising by 1.1%, while pork prices fell by 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.2%, with food prices increasing by 0.3%, but pork prices decreased by 1.7% [1] Group 2: Fruit and Vegetable Prices - Seasonal increases in fresh fruit prices are the main driver of the current food CPI, while vegetable price growth has slowed [2] - January vegetable prices averaged 5.59 yuan/kg, up 6.37% year-on-year, with expectations for continued price increases in Q1 due to the later timing of the Spring Festival and weather impacts [2] - January fruit prices averaged approximately 7.88 yuan/kg, up 8.87% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2020 [2] Group 3: Feed Raw Material Prices - In January, the average price of corn was 2364.6 yuan/ton, up 0.69% month-on-month and 10.55% year-on-year, with expectations for a stable price range in 2026 [3] - The average price of soybean meal was 3198.97 yuan/ton, up 1.94% month-on-month and 3.82% year-on-year, with a forecast of slight upward movement in 2026 [3] - Overall, the prices of feed raw materials are expected to remain stable, indicating no significant increase in breeding cost pressures [3] Group 4: Pig Farming Outlook - Following a price increase in late December 2025, pork prices are expected to face downward pressure after the Spring Festival due to seasonal consumption patterns [4] - The annual average price of pigs is projected to decline year-on-year, although there may be temporary rebounds influenced by seasonal disease impacts [4]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 01 月 29 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，28 日生猪主力 2603 合约小幅高开后冲高回落震荡走跌，尾盘收 阴，最高 11340 元/吨，最低 11230 元/吨，收盘报 1 ...

Group 1: New Five Feng - New Five Feng expects a net profit loss of 7 billion to 9.6 billion yuan for 2025, a significant decline from profit in the previous year [1] - The company attributes the loss to a substantial decrease in pig prices compared to the previous year and the need to account for inventory impairment on biological assets [1] - In 2025, New Five Feng's pig sales volume is projected to be approximately 5.4224 million heads, an increase of over 25% from 4.1663 million heads in 2024, with Q4 sales reaching 1.8669 million heads, a 66.4% increase from Q3 [1] Group 2: Bright Meat Industry - Bright Meat Industry anticipates a net loss of 1.16 billion to 1.71 billion yuan for 2025, marking its first loss in fifteen years [2] - The primary reason for the loss is the poor performance of the pig farming sector, driven by low domestic market prices [2] - The company is working on cost reduction and efficiency improvements in pig farming, but the significant drop in sales prices has led to substantial losses [2] Group 3: Lihua Co., Ltd. - Lihua Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 550 million to 600 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 60.55% to 63.84% [3] - The company's complete cost for meat chickens is approximately 11.4 yuan/kg, while the complete cost for pigs is about 12.3 yuan/kg, both of which are among the highest in the industry [3] Group 4: Yike Foods - Yike Foods projects a net profit loss of 260 million to 290 million yuan for 2025, a drastic decline from a profit of 100 million yuan in the previous year, marking the worst annual report since its listing [4] - The company's revenue is expected to decrease by about 9% due to a larger decline in sales prices compared to cost reductions, leading to a significant reduction in gross profit [5] - The duck product segment has seen a gross profit decrease of approximately 220 million yuan, while duckling gross profit has decreased by about 270 million yuan, contributing to the overall decline [5]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance of Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) in the third quarter of 2025, showing a significant decline in revenue and net profit due to falling pig prices, while also noting improvements in operational efficiency and cost management [2][9]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Muyuan Foods achieved a revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.52% [2][3]. - In the third quarter alone, the company reported a revenue of 35.33 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 11.48% compared to the same period last year [6][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 14.78 billion yuan, up 41.01% year-on-year, but in the third quarter, it fell to 4.25 billion yuan, down 55.98% year-on-year [2][3][9]. Operational Highlights - Muyuan Foods sold 57.32 million pigs from January to September 2025, marking a 27% increase year-on-year [7]. - The company has reduced its breeding sow inventory to 3.305 million by the end of the third quarter in response to national capacity control measures [7]. - The complete cost of pig farming decreased to 11.6 yuan/kg in September, down 1.5 yuan/kg from January, attributed to improved production performance and reduced overhead costs [7][10]. Cash Flow and Financial Structure - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 28.58 billion yuan [8]. - As of the end of the third quarter, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 55.50%, showing a decrease from the previous quarter, with total liabilities down by approximately 9.8 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [8]. Industry Context - The article notes that the decline in revenue and profit is not unique to Muyuan Foods, as other major pig farming companies also reported similar downturns due to falling pig prices [9]. - The average price of live pigs dropped from 14.7 yuan/kg at the end of June to 12.24 yuan/kg by the end of September, impacting the profitability of the industry [9]. - Analysts suggest that companies with lower production costs, such as Muyuan Foods, are better positioned to navigate the current market challenges and may benefit from future price rebounds [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is in an off - season with supply exceeding demand. The overall supply pressure is large due to high - level operation of production capacity, slowdown in new replenishment, continuous start - up of previous replenishment, and ineffective removal of backward production capacity. Demand support is not obvious. Cost has slightly declined, but the breeding profit has returned to a loss. The market maintains a near - weak and far - strong structure, and it is recommended to hold short positions before the festival and pay attention to fund management [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Review - Egg futures fluctuated weakly last week, high in the front and low in the back. Affected by the spot, they maintained a near - weak and far - strong pattern. All contracts are at a premium to the spot and are constantly repairing the basis through price drops [6]. 3.2 Spot Review - Last week, the egg spot bottomed out and rebounded. After the post - holiday decline, the sales areas started to replenish stocks. With the temperature drop, the production areas were reluctant to sell. Currently, the benchmark spot price is fluctuating around 2.5 yuan per catty, at a historical low. The market is under pressure again and is constantly searching for the bottom [12]. 3.3 Supply - Newly - added production capacity: From August to November 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from April to July 2025. The replenishment volume has a seasonal decline, and the newly - added production capacity from August to November has dropped significantly. The chick price has dropped significantly, and the enthusiasm for replenishment has decreased, affecting the newly - added supply in the fourth quarter. - Eliminated production capacity: From August to November 2025, the normal eliminated production capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from March to June 2024. The data shows a high elimination volume, but there is an obvious delay in elimination currently. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory data continued to increase slightly but started to decrease in September. The newly - added is stable with a slight decline, and the elimination is relatively slow. The overall supply pressure still exists, but it is expected to ease in the fourth quarter [17]. 3.4 Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens has stabilized, the elimination volume has continued to increase, and the average elimination age has shown a weakening trend. The price of eliminated chickens is 4.22 yuan per catty (- 0.08), the elimination price has stabilized with a slight rebound; the elimination volume has continued to increase, and it has entered an accelerated elimination stage; the elimination age is 498 days, a weekly decrease of 2 days, indicating a loosening in elimination [20]. 3.5 Seasonal and Consumption - Seasonally, it is an off - season, and the price has a seasonal decline and is hitting the bottom again. The production areas currently have little inventory pressure and a strong willingness to stockpile. After the festival, the stocking is over, the rigid demand support has weakened, and the price has declined [23]. 3.6 Substitute Products - Vegetables: There has been obvious low - temperature precipitation across the country, and vegetable prices are relatively strong. - Pork: The price is at a low level and searching for the bottom, which has an obvious suppressing effect on eggs. - Other meats: The prices of other meats have strengthened at this stage [25]. 3.7 Cost & Profit - Cost side: The price of corn has dropped significantly, and the spot price of soybean meal has fluctuated weakly. The overall cost has maintained a fluctuating decline. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty. - Breeding profit: Recently, the spot price of eggs has had a seasonal decline. Although the cost side has fluctuated downwards, the decline in the egg spot price is obvious, and the profit has turned into a loss again and returned to a weak state [27]. 3.8 Capital - After the capital reached a high level and then declined, it has entered the market again. Old long - position holders have stopped losses, and new long - position holders have entered the market, waiting for the arrival of the cycle conversion [33]. 3.9 Basis - The basis is negative, the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the market shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern [37]. 3.10 Spread Trend - The spot price has reached a peak and then maintained a shock. The futures market is generally in a positive market, with a near - weak and far - strong, reverse - spread structure [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is currently characterized by high overall production capacity, with a slowdown in recent new replenishment. The supply - side pressure is gradually weakening, while the demand has improved but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new demand from tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. - The cost of feed has slightly declined, with the current feed cost around 2.5 yuan per catty and the comprehensive breeding cost around 2.8 yuan per catty. Egg prices have returned above the feed breeding cost seasonally, and profits have improved. - The spot market will still receive seasonal demand support after a short - term release of the decline sentiment, but the futures premium is obvious, and it is difficult to follow the spot rebound. As the delivery month approaches, the main 09 contract may decline to repair the basis, and attention should be paid to reverse spread opportunities. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Review - Last week, egg futures maintained a weak oscillation, and the overall weakness remained unchanged. The biggest contradiction in the market is the large basis, with obvious selling pressure and weak willingness to take delivery. [6] Spot Review - Last week, egg spot prices maintained a weak adjustment and stabilized over the weekend. The sales areas started to sell at low prices, and the market began to accept the goods. After this round of adjustment, the spot prices will be supported by the start of school for students and Mid - Autumn Festival deep - processing stocking. Attention should be paid to the rebound height. [13] Supply - Newly - added capacity: From August to November 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from April to July 2025, and the newly - added capacity will decline significantly. - Elimination capacity: From August to November 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from March to June 2024. The data shows a high elimination volume, but the current data indicates obvious delayed elimination. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory data continues to increase slightly, but it will start to decrease in September. The newly - added capacity is stable with a slight decline, and the elimination is relatively slow. The overall supply pressure still exists. [16] Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens is 5.51 yuan per catty (- 0.27). The elimination volume has significantly decreased. The peak season and a slight price rebound limit the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining unchanged, and the overall age has reached the normal range, but the elimination of backward production capacity is not ideal. [19] Seasonal Factors - It is the seasonal peak season. On the production area side, the inventory pressure in the production areas has increased, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate and increased costs. On the consumption side, the arrival of the tourism peak season combined with deep - processing has improved the overall demand. [21] Cost & Profit - Cost side: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices have steadily declined. The overall cost remains volatile. The current feed cost is around 2.5 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is around 2.8 yuan per catty. - Breeding profit: Recently, egg prices have risen, and the spot price has returned above the feed cost. However, the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in a loss, showing a seasonal bottom - rebounding trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback on backward production capacity. [27] Capital and Market - Capital has increased at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the production capacity is high, there is seasonal suppression, and the futures premium over the spot still has room to decline. Bulls believe that the valuation is low, and the seasonality is about to turn from weak to strong, making it valuable to go long. Currently, the reality is stronger than expectations, with obvious futures premium over the spot and obvious selling pressure in the market, waiting for the cycle conversion. [30] Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures are at a premium. The current basis is running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, which is more likely to be achieved through a decline in futures prices. - Spread: It shows that supply exceeds demand. The near - month contracts in the market are constantly repairing the basis through price declines, and the far - month contracts face the expectation of reduced production capacity, with a focus on reverse spread operations. [32][34]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in pig prices indicate a complex market situation, with a brief recovery followed by a significant decline, suggesting challenges ahead for price stability and growth potential. Group 1: Price Trends - In June, pig prices unexpectedly rose, reaching a peak of 15.5 yuan/kg, but subsequently fell for half a month, dropping below 14 yuan/kg, indicating a decline of over 1 yuan/kg overall [2][4]. - Despite a recent slight rebound in pig prices, the overall outlook for significant price increases remains bleak, as the market dynamics are shifting [4][7]. Group 2: Market Support Factors - A key support factor for the recent price increase is the reduction in the inventory of medium and large pigs, with a 0.8% decrease in June, leading to less market pressure [4][6]. - Rising feed costs, driven by increasing corn prices, have led to higher breeding costs, causing farmers to reduce the number of pigs they sell when prices drop to around 14 yuan/kg [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The pig market is facing structural changes due to large enterprises continuously expanding production and the impact of secondary fattening practices disrupting the market rhythm [8]. - Official directives to halt production expansion and reduce sales of secondary fattened pigs have altered market dynamics, diminishing the potential for price increases [8][9]. - Data indicates that the pressure for pig sales will remain high in the second half of the year, with an expected peak in piglet output and feed production [11].

Core Viewpoint - The sales data for June from leading pig farming companies indicates that while the average sales price has slightly decreased compared to the same period last year, profits have increased due to a significant reduction in costs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Sales and Pricing - In the first half of the year, the average sales price for pigs from Muyuan Foods was 14.46 yuan/kg, down 0.76 yuan/kg from the previous year, with a price range of 14.08 to 14.76 yuan/kg [1][3]. - The sales price decline of approximately 5% contrasts with a notable decrease in costs, which fell from over 14 yuan/kg to 12.2 yuan/kg by May [1][5]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure varies significantly among pig farming companies, with some, like Huazhong Foods, reporting costs as high as 13.7 yuan/kg, which is 1.6 yuan/kg higher than Muyuan Foods [1][6]. - Muyuan Foods' profitability has improved, with a unit profit of approximately 2.3 yuan/kg and a gross margin of around 15.8%, compared to Huazhong Foods' 0.8 yuan/kg profit and 5.5% margin [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is experiencing a narrowing fluctuation in pig prices, with expectations of marginal improvements in supply-demand dynamics in the second half of the year due to a decrease in the breeding sow inventory [8][10]. - There are differing opinions on the future price trajectory, with some analysts predicting a potential rebound in prices due to seasonal demand, while others foresee continued supply growth keeping prices stable [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities indicates that based on the value of breeding sows and farming efficiency, pig prices in 2025 may show a downward trend year-on-year, while remaining relatively stable throughout the year. Additionally, profit expectations are exceeded due to declining costs, with a focus on high-quality pig companies that exhibit significant changes in marginal costs and have a good financial position [1]. Group 1 - The analysis suggests a potential year-on-year decline in pig prices for 2025 [1] - The pig market is expected to operate relatively steadily within the year [1] - Profit expectations are anticipated to exceed due to a decrease in costs [1] Group 2 - There is an emphasis on monitoring high-quality pig companies with significant changes in marginal costs [1] - Companies with a good financial position are highlighted as key areas of focus [1]

Core Viewpoint - TianKang Biological has shown significant growth in its pig farming business, with a notable increase in sales and profitability in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a strong recovery in the industry [1][2][3]. Sales Performance - In April 2025, TianKang sold 244,700 pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 3.93% but a year-on-year increase of 1.58% [1]. - The sales revenue for April reached 380 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 1.06% and year-on-year stability [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to April 2025, the company sold 1,055,400 pigs, an 18.84% increase compared to the same period last year, with total sales revenue of 1.557 billion yuan, up 11.61% year-on-year [1]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for the pig farming sector improved significantly from -13.82% in 2023 to 14.61% in 2024, with further profitability expected in Q1 2025 [2]. - The total cost of pig farming for the company was 13.01 yuan/kg in Q1, with costs dropping below 13 yuan/kg in January and March [2]. - Comparatively, leading competitors like Muyuan and Wens have also seen reductions in their farming costs, indicating a competitive landscape [2]. Dividend and Valuation - TianKang's dividend distribution plan for 2024 proposes a payout of 2.2 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend rate close to 50%, positioning it as a leader in the industry [3]. - The latest dividend yield stands at 3.46%, making it the second highest in the pig farming sector, just behind Muyuan [3][4]. - The valuation of pig farming stocks is currently at historical lows, suggesting potential for long-term investment growth [3]. Future Growth Potential - The company plans significant capital expenditures in pig farming and minor upgrades in feed business, with a new breeding project expected to be operational by the second half of the year [8]. - The feed business aims to reach a sales target of 5 million tons within 3-5 years, indicating a strategic growth plan [8]. - In the animal vaccine sector, the company is innovating its sales model and targeting international markets, particularly in Central Asia and Southeast Asia, to enhance its long-term growth prospects [8]. Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, plans to increase its stake in TianKang, demonstrating confidence in the company's future development [7].