1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is currently characterized by high overall production capacity, with a slowdown in recent new replenishment. The supply - side pressure is gradually weakening, while the demand has improved but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new demand from tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. - The cost of feed has slightly declined, with the current feed cost around 2.5 yuan per catty and the comprehensive breeding cost around 2.8 yuan per catty. Egg prices have returned above the feed breeding cost seasonally, and profits have improved. - The spot market will still receive seasonal demand support after a short - term release of the decline sentiment, but the futures premium is obvious, and it is difficult to follow the spot rebound. As the delivery month approaches, the main 09 contract may decline to repair the basis, and attention should be paid to reverse spread opportunities. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Review - Last week, egg futures maintained a weak oscillation, and the overall weakness remained unchanged. The biggest contradiction in the market is the large basis, with obvious selling pressure and weak willingness to take delivery. [6] Spot Review - Last week, egg spot prices maintained a weak adjustment and stabilized over the weekend. The sales areas started to sell at low prices, and the market began to accept the goods. After this round of adjustment, the spot prices will be supported by the start of school for students and Mid - Autumn Festival deep - processing stocking. Attention should be paid to the rebound height. [13] Supply - Newly - added capacity: From August to November 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from April to July 2025, and the newly - added capacity will decline significantly. - Elimination capacity: From August to November 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from March to June 2024. The data shows a high elimination volume, but the current data indicates obvious delayed elimination. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory data continues to increase slightly, but it will start to decrease in September. The newly - added capacity is stable with a slight decline, and the elimination is relatively slow. The overall supply pressure still exists. [16] Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens is 5.51 yuan per catty (- 0.27). The elimination volume has significantly decreased. The peak season and a slight price rebound limit the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining unchanged, and the overall age has reached the normal range, but the elimination of backward production capacity is not ideal. [19] Seasonal Factors - It is the seasonal peak season. On the production area side, the inventory pressure in the production areas has increased, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate and increased costs. On the consumption side, the arrival of the tourism peak season combined with deep - processing has improved the overall demand. [21] Cost & Profit - Cost side: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices have steadily declined. The overall cost remains volatile. The current feed cost is around 2.5 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is around 2.8 yuan per catty. - Breeding profit: Recently, egg prices have risen, and the spot price has returned above the feed cost. However, the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in a loss, showing a seasonal bottom - rebounding trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback on backward production capacity. [27] Capital and Market - Capital has increased at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the production capacity is high, there is seasonal suppression, and the futures premium over the spot still has room to decline. Bulls believe that the valuation is low, and the seasonality is about to turn from weak to strong, making it valuable to go long. Currently, the reality is stronger than expectations, with obvious futures premium over the spot and obvious selling pressure in the market, waiting for the cycle conversion. [30] Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures are at a premium. The current basis is running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, which is more likely to be achieved through a decline in futures prices. - Spread: It shows that supply exceeds demand. The near - month contracts in the market are constantly repairing the basis through price declines, and the far - month contracts face the expectation of reduced production capacity, with a focus on reverse spread operations. [32][34]

但出人意料的是，6月不仅玉米、小麦涨了，猪价也涨了，并且延续到7月初还创了个高点，全国生猪均价一下涨到了15.5元/公斤。 这也让之前看跌的人是啪啪打脸。 但是很遗憾，这波涨势却没能延续，高点一过马上就掉头下跌了。 这一跌虽然不是飞流直下三千尺吧，但算算时间也连续跌了有半个月了，不但猪价重点快速下滑到14元出头，而且有多个地区都跌破了14元/公斤大关。 也就是说，在半个月的时间里，猪价整体下跌的幅度就超过了1元/公斤。 7月份有点意思。 之前市场一直不怎么看好6月份，因为6月份吧，从以往的情况来看，6月份一般掀不起什么大风浪来。 我们之前发文章说，往年七八月的高点可能要泡汤了，而从猪价的行情来看，也确实是跌跌不休。 不过，就在近日，跌了半个月的猪价突然反涨了，虽然说涨幅不大，但也再次让市场看到了希望。 毕竟七八月可是猪价的黄金月份呀！ 那么，猪价冲高还有戏吗？ 首先来说，猪价这么突然一涨，透露出一个信号，那就是底部支撑强劲。 什么支撑呢？ 第一个是中大猪存栏在降低。 之前生猪市场除了产能压力以外，还有一个压力就是中大猪存栏较多，这就意味着在同样的存栏量下，大猪占比较高的话那么产出的猪肉也就更多，也就更 加剧了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sales data for June from leading pig farming companies indicates that while the average sales price has slightly decreased compared to the same period last year, profits have increased due to a significant reduction in costs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Sales and Pricing - In the first half of the year, the average sales price for pigs from Muyuan Foods was 14.46 yuan/kg, down 0.76 yuan/kg from the previous year, with a price range of 14.08 to 14.76 yuan/kg [1][3]. - The sales price decline of approximately 5% contrasts with a notable decrease in costs, which fell from over 14 yuan/kg to 12.2 yuan/kg by May [1][5]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure varies significantly among pig farming companies, with some, like Huazhong Foods, reporting costs as high as 13.7 yuan/kg, which is 1.6 yuan/kg higher than Muyuan Foods [1][6]. - Muyuan Foods' profitability has improved, with a unit profit of approximately 2.3 yuan/kg and a gross margin of around 15.8%, compared to Huazhong Foods' 0.8 yuan/kg profit and 5.5% margin [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is experiencing a narrowing fluctuation in pig prices, with expectations of marginal improvements in supply-demand dynamics in the second half of the year due to a decrease in the breeding sow inventory [8][10]. - There are differing opinions on the future price trajectory, with some analysts predicting a potential rebound in prices due to seasonal demand, while others foresee continued supply growth keeping prices stable [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities indicates that based on the value of breeding sows and farming efficiency, pig prices in 2025 may show a downward trend year-on-year, while remaining relatively stable throughout the year. Additionally, profit expectations are exceeded due to declining costs, with a focus on high-quality pig companies that exhibit significant changes in marginal costs and have a good financial position [1]. Group 1 - The analysis suggests a potential year-on-year decline in pig prices for 2025 [1] - The pig market is expected to operate relatively steadily within the year [1] - Profit expectations are anticipated to exceed due to a decrease in costs [1] Group 2 - There is an emphasis on monitoring high-quality pig companies with significant changes in marginal costs [1] - Companies with a good financial position are highlighted as key areas of focus [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [5] Core Viewpoints - In February, the average price of live pigs decreased due to oversupply, while the price of piglets remained strong. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 36.21 CNY/kg, 16.00 CNY/kg, and 27.46 CNY/kg respectively, with month-on-month changes of 6.59%, -3.68%, and -1.57% [11][16] - The supply side is seeing a gradual recovery in post-holiday slaughtering, leading to an overall sufficient market supply. The demand side is experiencing a post-holiday decline, with a slow recovery in terminal demand and slaughtering operations [13][19] - The report anticipates that the pig price recovery in the coming months will rely on the entry of secondary fattening [13][21] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The market supply is generally sufficient, with a gradual return to normal slaughtering rates post-holiday. The average slaughtering rate in February was 20.24% [13][19] - Demand: Post-holiday demand is declining, with a slow recovery in terminal demand and slaughtering operations. The price difference between live pigs and pork is 4.53 CNY/kg, indicating weak consumer performance [13][19] Cost and Pricing Trends - The report highlights that the imposition of tariffs on certain imported agricultural products from the U.S. is expected to raise breeding costs. Tariffs include a 15% increase on wheat and corn, and a 10% increase on sorghum and soybeans [16][19] - The breeding cost for leading companies is crucial for maintaining profitability during periods of declining pig prices. Companies like Shennong Group and Wens Foodstuffs have managed to keep their breeding costs below 13 CNY/kg [33][34] Market Performance of Listed Companies - In February, the sales prices of major listed companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Zhengbang Technology, and New Hope were 14.76 CNY/kg, 14.96 CNY/kg, 14.35 CNY/kg, and 14.64 CNY/kg respectively, showing a month-on-month decline of 5.53%, 5.27%, 6.67%, and 5.07% [24][25] - The total slaughter volume in February showed a significant decline, with companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Zhengbang Technology experiencing decreases of 10.39% and 21.12% respectively [25][30] Future Outlook - The report predicts that high-quality production capacity is likely to remain profitable in 2025. The industry index PB has slightly increased but remains at a low level. The report suggests that as consumption-boosting policies are implemented in 2025, leading breeding companies are expected to see valuation recovery [21][34]