Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The upward space of methanol 01 contract is quite limited. The reasons are that the overall profit of downstream MTO is poor, and further increase in methanol price may lead to downstream shutdown and negative demand feedback; downstream restocking willingness is weak due to profit levels and relatively high inventory of MTO enterprises and ports. It is recommended to hold the short put option of 01 contract until expiration and not to chase the rise of 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.70%) to 2113 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.23%) to 2209 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 4 yuan/ton (-0.18%) to 2211 yuan/ton [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average prices): Prices in most regions decreased, such as -5 yuan/ton in Taicang (-0.24%), -7.5 yuan/ton in Shaanxi (-0.38%), -10 yuan/ton in Sichuan and Chongqing (-0.46%), while Shandong increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.22%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: Prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.43%), 5 yuan/ton (-0.76%), and 5 yuan/ton (-0.76%) respectively [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 6.3 yuan/ton (2.54%) to 254.4 yuan/ton, while natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at -1160 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: Profits of MTO in the northwest and east increased by 1.4 yuan/ton (0.58%) and 0.5 yuan/ton (0.06%) respectively; acetic acid profit increased by 24.64 yuan/ton (4.17%), MTBE profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-10.94%), and formaldehyde and other products' profits remained unchanged [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak shock, opening at 2128 yuan/ton, closing at 2113 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1.053 million lots and an open interest of 934,600 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1]. - Foreign information: Six methanol plants with a total capacity of 9.9 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and the daily methanol output has dropped to 14,400 tons. Attention should be paid to the number of loading ports in December [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy Hold the short put option of 01 contract until expiration [1].

2025 年 12 月 05 日 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,113 | 2,128 | -15 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,118 | 2,126 | - 8 | | | 甲醇主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 1,053,135 | 996,305 | 56830 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 934,683 | 948,396 | -13713 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 5,700 | 5,800 | -100 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 2,230,675 | 2,118,308 | 112367 | | | 基 差 | 基 差 | | -1 | -6 | 5 | | | 月 差 | MA01-MA05 | | -96 | -86 | -10 | | 现货市场 | 价 格 | 内蒙价格 | | 1,985 | 1,985 | 0 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the methanol market, indicating that port inventories have declined slightly from high levels. The import pressure in December is expected to reach an annual high, and the short - term port inventory pressure remains significant. On the mainland, coal - based methanol production is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the inventory of mainland factories has increased slightly. The report also provides corresponding trading strategies [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Section I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are presented to show the basis between methanol spot prices in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China, and the import price differences between different regions [27][31][32] III. Methanol开工, Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol decreased to 1349430 tons (- 14070 tons), with Jiangsu port inventory decreasing and Zhejiang port inventory increasing. The mainland factory inventory was 361320 tons (- 12392 tons), and the MTO/P开工 rate was 89.93% (+ 0.28%) [1][2][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report presents price differences between different regions, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, and between Taicang and Inner Mongolia [2][39][47] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [53][57] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on MA2605 for hedging - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when the spread is low - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [4]

| | | 甲醇日评20251204:继续上行空间或有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/12/3 | 2025/12/2 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2128.00 | 2132.00 | -4.00 | -0.19% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2214.00 | 2232.00 | -18.00 | -0.81% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2215.00 | 2228.00 | -13.00 | -0.58% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2112.50 | 2122.50 | -10.00 | -0.47% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2225.00 | 2235.00 | -10.00 | -0.45% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2095.00 | 2105.00 | -10. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, methanol rebounded from a low level due to the gradual maintenance of Iranian facilities and significant destocking at ports, which led to the concentrated exit of short - sellers and a resonance - style rise in futures and spot prices. In the medium - term, the high domestic supply pressure of the 01 - contract methanol remains the main contradiction, and the high daily output and high import volume may limit the upside price space of the 01 - contract in December. In 2026, the overall fundamental pattern of methanol may improve in the first quarter. The current fundamental pressure level for methanol is 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton, and if methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan, which is around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,135 yuan/ton, up from 2,114 yuan/ton; the settlement price was 2,126 yuan/ton, up from 2,117 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 943,772 lots, down from 1,682,067 lots; the open interest of the 01 - contract was 1,048,788 lots, down 55,870 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,800 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 2,006,620 ten - thousand yuan, down 1,554,224 ten - thousand yuan; the basis was - 25, down from - 9; the monthly spread (MA01 - MA05) was - 84, up from - 94 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Inner Mongolia was 1,965 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,960 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2. Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2060.77, up 2.24. Among them, the Taicang spot price was 2110, up 5, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1992.5, up 2.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 10 cities saw varying degrees of price increases, with increases ranging from 1 to 25 yuan/ton. The methanol futures fluctuated at a high level. The spot market was for rigid - demand negotiations, with far - month futures - spot trading as the main activity. The basis remained stable and weak. The inland methanol market atmosphere was still active, the auction transactions were optimistic, and the freight prices increased in some areas. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand on Friday, and the traders reported quantities actively, with the transaction prices rising slightly within the week [3]. 3.3. Inventory Situation - As of November 26, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 136.35 million tons, a decrease of 11.58 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.83%. The overall unloading of foreign vessels at ports was lower than expected, and only 15.20 million tons of visible unloading was recorded during the period. Supported by reverse flow, the提货 at the riverside warehouses in Jiangsu was good, and the load of some major downstream enterprises increased slightly; the rigid demand in Zhejiang was stable. The inventory at South China ports continued to be destocked. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic trade vessels arrived at ports during the week, and the提货 at the mainstream storage areas was stable, resulting in continuous destocking. In Fujian, there were no vessels arriving at ports, and the inventory decreased under stable consumption by downstream enterprises [3].

甲醇日报 | 2025-11-28 港口库存下降幅度尚可 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润585元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1990元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差476元/吨（-20），内蒙南线1975元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2215元/吨（+15），鲁 南基差301元/吨（-5）；河南2095元/吨（+20），河南基差181元/吨（+0）；河北2130元/吨（+0），河北基差276元/吨 （-20）。隆众内地工厂库存373712吨（+15012），西北工厂库存209000吨（+20500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单230710 吨（-15610），西北工厂待发订单113500吨（-11900）。 跨品种：无 风险 伊朗装置冬检停车持续时长，MTO检修兑现进度 港口方面：太仓甲醇2105元/吨（+17），太仓基差-9元/吨（-3），CFR中国243美元/吨（+5），华东进口价差-29元/ 吨（-14），常州甲醇2305元/吨；广东甲醇2070元/吨（+20），广东基差-44元/吨（+0）。隆众港口总库存1363500吨 （-1 ...

Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View The methanol market continues to oscillate. The international device operating rate has declined, and some devices in Iran have shut down due to gas restrictions. The port inventory has decreased, and the domestic supply is abundant. The downstream demand is stable, and the inland MTO operation is stable. The price of methanol in the inland area is relatively firm recently. The impact of domestic commodities' wide - range oscillation on methanol futures has weakened [4]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The futures market showed a strong oscillation, closing at 2114 (+25/+1.2%). The spot market had different quotes in various regions, with production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Guanzhong, and consumption areas like Shandong and Hebei having their respective prices, and ports including Taicang, Ningbo, and Guangzhou also showing different levels [2]. Important Information - From November 21 - 27, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, an increase of 7,530 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 89.09%, a 0.37% increase from the previous week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply: The profit of coal - based methanol is around 260 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply remains abundant. The import price in US dollars has rebounded, and the import profit margin has continued to expand. The external market's operating rate has increased at a high level [4]. - Demand: The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, with some MTO devices operating stably or at partial loads [4]. - Inventory: The port's inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Close short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6]

湖烯烃装置重启后负荷提升，周均开工率预计继续上行。MA2601合约短线预计在2080-2130区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2114 | 20 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -94 | 13 9185 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1104658 | -50028 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -194795 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 3800 | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market should continue to monitor the progress of winter inspections of Iranian methanol plants. Although some Iranian plants have shut down, the shipping volume in November exceeded 1 million tons, so there is still significant inventory pressure at ports in December, and the current situation remains weak [3]. - In the domestic market, there are both new shutdowns and restarts, resulting in relatively high supply pressure. Some MTO plants are under maintenance or operating at low loads, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Among traditional downstream sectors, acetic acid and formaldehyde have low operating rates, while only MTBE has a relatively high operating rate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][11]. 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences (such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China) [6][27][28]. 3.3 Methanol Operation and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), domestic factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) is presented through charts [6][35][36]. 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts showing regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest - 280, East China and Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang and Lunan - 250, etc. [6][40][47]. 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][52][55]. 3.6 Market News and Key Data Domestic Market - The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 583 yuan/ton (unchanged). The prices of methanol in different domestic regions have different changes, with some increasing and some remaining stable. The inventory and pending order volumes of domestic factories also show different trends, with inventory decreasing and pending orders increasing [1]. Port Market - The price of methanol in Taicang is 2060 yuan/ton (+7 yuan), and CFR China is 238 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars). Port inventory has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO has increased slightly [2]. Regional Price Differences - There are various changes in regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest - 280 increasing by 15 yuan/ton, and the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia - 550 increasing by 7 yuan/ton [2]. 3.7 Market Analysis - At ports, the market is waiting for further progress of winter inspections of Iranian plants. Although some plants have shut down, the high shipping volume in November leads to high inventory pressure in December. In the domestic market, there are new shutdowns and restarts, resulting in high supply pressure. Some MTO plants are under maintenance or operating at low loads, and traditional downstream sectors have different operating rates [3]. 3.8 Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [4]. - Inter - period: Expand the price difference between MA2605 and MA2609 when it is low [4]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [4].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 供应预期修复，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 核心逻辑：近期国内甲醇期货供需预期改善，驱动甲醇期价反弹主要有四方面原因：其一，伊朗限 气政策落地。11 月下旬伊朗进入冬季采暖季，天然气供应受限导致甲醇装置减产，12 月进口量预计 环比减少 50%，1 月或进一步降至 90 万吨附近，供应缺口预期升温。其二，地缘制裁持续干扰。美 国对伊朗化工物流制裁未放松，部分航运中断加剧进口不确定性，支撑市场乐观情绪。其三，我国 北方采暖季刚需释放。"煤改醇"民用采暖需求稳定增长 ，11 月甲醇燃料消耗量预估达 140-160 万 吨，12 月或攀升至 150-170 万吨。其四，现货竞拍氛围改善。近期山西、内蒙古等地甲醇 竞拍价格 普遍上涨， ...