| | | 甲醇日评20251112: 低估值,弱驱动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 单位 2025/11/11 2025/11/10 | | | | 变化值 | | | | | | | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2082.00 | 2101.00 | -19.00 | -0.90% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 元/吨 | 2194.00 | 2208.00 | -14.00 | -0.63% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 | 2218.00 | 2224.00 | -6.00 | -0.27% | | | | 元/吨 太仓 | 2057.50 | 2060.00 | -2.50 | -0.12% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2187.50 | 2180.00 | 7.50 | 0.34% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 元/吨 | 2075.00 | 2065.00 | 10.00 | 0.48% | | 及基差 | 甲醇规货价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol downstream shows a situation of not prosperous in the peak - season. This week, the port inventories increased slightly and remained above 1.5 million tons, and the production area also saw inventory accumulation. The import volume in September decreased by 18.9% month - on - month, and it is expected to be around 1.5 million tons in October. It is expected that 3 MTO plants will be shut down for maintenance from November to December. Affected by news, the futures price is consolidating at a low level, and the methanol in the real - world market is still under pressure, with a reference range of 2,080 - 2,170 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to partially take profit on previous short positions and hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract dropped 16 yuan to 2,103 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the eastern mainstream area rose 10 yuan to 2,090 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 22,183 lots to 801,100 lots, and short positions increased by 22,508 lots to 1,043,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Supply - The domestic methanol operating rate is 87.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 72%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [1] 3.2.2 Inventory - The total inventory of methanol ports in China is 1.5216 million tons, an increase of 15,100 tons. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 28,700 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 13,600 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.75% [1] 3.2.3 Demand - The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 51,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,700 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.57%. The olefin operating rate is 90.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 63.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.1%; the acetic acid operating rate is 69.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% [1] 3.2.4 Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, which is the second consecutive meeting to cut interest rates, meeting market expectations and the fifth interest rate cut since September 2024 [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Methanol downstream is not prosperous in the peak - season. This week, port inventories increased slightly and remained above 1.5 million tons, and the production area also saw inventory accumulation. The import volume in September decreased by 18.9% month - on - month, and it is expected to be around 1.5 million tons in October. It is expected that 3 MTO plants will be shut down for maintenance from November to December. Affected by news, the futures price is consolidating at a low level, and the methanol in the real - world market is still under pressure, with a reference range of 2,080 - 2,170 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Partially take profit on previous short positions and hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental driver of methanol is downward, but the downside space is gradually narrowing. The supply is high in the short - term, the demand side has pressure, and the macro - drive is weak, leading to the weak operation of methanol recently. However, due to the increase in the cost of coal - to - methanol, the downside space is narrowing [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract (01 contract) was 2,125 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,116 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the trading volume was 1,243,391 lots; the open interest was 1,368,330 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,854 tons, down 305 tons; the turnover was 2,631,338 ten - thousand yuan, down 348,111 ten - thousand yuan. The basis was - 22, up 23 from the previous day, and the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 101, down 6 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Inner Mongolia was 1,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,950 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in Shandong was 2,085 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. **Spot News** - No specific content is provided in the given text. **Futures Research** - **Inventory**: As of November 5, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 151.71 million tons, an increase of 1.06 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The inventory in ports increased slightly this week, with 232,000 tons of explicit outer - wheel unloading and 113,800 tons of non - explicit outer - wheel unloading. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly [3]. - **Driver**: The fundamental driver of methanol is downward. In terms of supply, in early November, with the concentrated resumption of production of devices, the daily output of methanol increased significantly compared with late October. In terms of imports, the logistics contradiction of methanol imports may be alleviated, and the imported goods are still abundant. On the demand side, the MTO industry has increased pressure and compressed profits, which restricts the upward space of methanol. Macro - drivers have weakened, and methanol has been running weakly recently. In terms of valuation, the cost of coal - to - methanol has increased, and the downside space of methanol is narrowing [3][4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of methanol is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port inventory has further accumulated to a historical high. In November, the arrival pressure remains high. The delayed announcement of winter maintenance in Iran is the main driver of the recent decline in methanol prices. There are now expectations of Iranian plant maintenance, and the market's expectation of the delayed implementation of Iranian winter maintenance has regained optimism [2]. - Inland inventory has rebounded again. Mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. Coal - based methanol production has further increased in November, and inland inventory has been rebuilt from a low level. Inland MTO demand has declined, and attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Traditional downstream industries are also under pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, and the basis between methanol in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][11] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows figures on the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, among others [26][27][28] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - It includes figures on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate, the inland factory sample inventory, and the operating rate of methanol production in China [33][34][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides figures on price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, and the price difference between Taicang and southern Shandong [38][44][46] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - It shows figures on the production gross profit of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [45][50][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of November 6, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 90.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The olefin industry's overall start - up continued to decline this week, and the MA2601 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2150 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest was 1368330 lots, a decrease of 4418 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 257497 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10854, a decrease of 305 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2065 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton; the East - Northwest price difference was 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton; the CFR price at the main Chinese port was 241 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 82 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price was 4.24 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.15 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 49.56 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons; the methanol import profit was - 4.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 386400 tons, an increase of 10300 tons; the methanol enterprise start - up rate was 86.73%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start - up rate was 40.29%, an increase of 1.42 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start - up rate was 5.82%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points; the acetic acid start - up rate was 73.47%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points; the MTBE start - up rate was 67.98%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points; the olefin start - up rate was 90.27%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 704 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.84%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.9%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 19.63%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 19.65%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 5, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 38.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04 tons or 2.75%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 22.11 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 tons or 2.57%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 151.71 tons, an increase of 1.06 tons. The inventory at East China ports increased by 2.42 tons, while that at South China ports decreased by 1.36 tons. Recently, the production capacity loss due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from the restored production capacity, and the overall output increased [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The port inventory of methanol remains high, and the expected reduction in arrivals due to previous Iran sanctions has not materialized. The delay in Iran's winter maintenance announcement is the main driver of the methanol price decline. Recently, there are expectations of Iran's plant maintenance, and the market's expectation of the delayed implementation of Iran's winter maintenance has warmed up [3]. - The inventory in the inland region has rebounded again. The mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. The coal - based methanol production rate has further increased in November, and the inland inventory has started to build up from a low level. The demand for inland MTO has decreased, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Overall, the inland region is also in an inventory accumulation cycle, and the degree of support for the port remains to be observed [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are presented to show methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis vs. methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [7][21][23] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [25][26][34] 3. Methanol Production Rate, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P production rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol production rate (including integrated ones) is presented through figures [35][37][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures display regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][50][53] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [51][57] Market News and Important Data Inland Region - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 560 yuan/ton (+13). Inner Mongolia north - line methanol is 1965 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of 424 yuan/ton (-14); Inner Mongolia south - line methanol is 1950 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi methanol is 2170 yuan/ton (+10), with a basis of 229 yuan/ton (-16); Henan methanol is 2020 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of 79 yuan/ton (-36); Hebei methanol is 2075 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of 194 yuan/ton (-36). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 386,410 tons (+10,350), and the northwest factory inventory is 232,500 tons (+1,200). Longzhong's inland factory pending orders are 221,093 tons (+5,535), and the northwest factory pending orders are 124,500 tons (+10,900) [1] Port Region - Taicang methanol is 2082 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 59 yuan/ton (-26); CFR China is 241 US dollars/ton (-3), and the East China import price difference is - 31 yuan/ton (+2). Changzhou methanol is 2275 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2107 yuan/ton (+2), with a basis of - 34 yuan/ton (-24). Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,517,100 tons (+10,630), Jiangsu port inventory is 821,500 tons (-2,800), Zhejiang port inventory is 200,000 tons (+27,000), and Guangdong port inventory is 297,000 tons (-7,000). The downstream MTO production rate is 90.19% (-0.24%) [2] Regional Price Differences - The Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is - 90 yuan/ton (-13), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference is - 433 yuan/ton (-13), the Taicang - Lunan - 250 price difference is - 338 yuan/ton (-10); the Lunan - Taicang - 100 price difference is - 12 yuan/ton (+10); the Guangdong - East China - 180 price difference is - 155 yuan/ton (+2); the East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 price difference is - 283 yuan/ton (+25) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy - Inter - period: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - Inter - variety: No strategy [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak operation due to the expected weakening of fundamentals. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operating rates, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong is under maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With high domestic methanol operating rates and low inventory at upstream methanol plants still focused on sales, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering the current low methanol prices, cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, so the decline is expected to be limited. In ports, under the suppression of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventory, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. [5] - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2100 - 2200 yuan/ton. [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - For methanol 2601: Fundamentally, it is expected to be weak in the short - term. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures. As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports increased slightly, and the tradable supply in coastal areas decreased. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. It is expected to oscillate between 2100 - 2200 yuan/ton this week. [5] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Positive factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down, Iranian methanol operating rates are reduced, port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid devices are put into production or plan to be put into production, and CTO plants in the northwest purchase methanol externally. [6] - **Negative factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, there is a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde enters the off - season, MTBE operating rates decline significantly, coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales. [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, prices in different regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian have different degrees of decline or remain stable. In the futures market, the closing price has decreased. The basis has widened, and the import spread has changed. [8][9][11] - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rate in the northwest is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from last week. [8][23] - **Inventory data**: As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 128.29 tons, a slight increase of 1.31 tons from the previous period. The tradable supply in coastal areas has decreased by 0.53 tons to 83.83 tons. [5] - **Profit data**: Different production processes of methanol have different profit situations. Coal - based methanol has a profit of 105 yuan/ton, natural gas - based methanol has a loss of 40 yuan/ton, and coke - oven gas - based methanol has a profit of 305 yuan/ton. [22] 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic devices**: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the northwest, north, east, and southwest are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and loss amounts. [58] - **Overseas devices**: Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions. [59] - **Olefin devices**: Some olefin plants in the northwest and east are under maintenance, running stably, or have plans for production expansion or shutdown. [60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol has continued its weak and volatile trend recently. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment drive. It is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 3, 2025, compared to October 30, MA01 decreased by 28 yuan/ton (-1.27%) to 2180 yuan/ton, MA05 decreased by 24 yuan/ton (-1.05%) to 2260 yuan/ton, and MA09 decreased by 26 yuan/ton (-1.15%) to 2240 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Among different regions, prices in most regions decreased slightly, except for Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei where prices remained unchanged. For example, the price in Taicang decreased by 32.50 yuan/ton (-1.48%) to 2157.50 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%) to 2235 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Upstream coal and natural gas prices remained stable. The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 220.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained at - 1100 yuan/ton. Among downstream products, the profit of East China MTO increased by 114.50 yuan/ton (18.17%) to - 515.57 yuan/ton, while the profit of acetic acid decreased by 45.25 yuan/ton (-9.66%) to 423 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 was oversold at the end of the session, opening at 2202 yuan/ton, closing at 2180 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 826,939 lots and an open interest of 1,350,958, showing increasing volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: For far - month arriving methanol cargoes from other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation was at - 4 - 1.9%, with buyers' bids at - 4%. Some far - month arriving cargoes from a Middle - East country were reported to have been traded at - 2% and - 3%. Attention should be paid to the actual operating load of methanol plants in a Middle - East country [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic and Outlook - **Current Situation**: Methanol has weakened recently. In terms of valuation, the price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices. In terms of driving factors, the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment drive [1]. - **Outlook**: The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November. Future driving factors may come from possible supply reductions, such as the expected gas restrictions in Iran. Overall, it is necessary to wait before going long on methanol [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines, with a view score of 0 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The port inventory pressure of methanol persists, and the winter inspection plan in Iran has not been announced yet. If Iran fails to conduct winter inspections, the port inventory pressure will be difficult to relieve. Inland inventory has further increased, with coal - based methanol production resuming in November. The demand for inland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - term spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA2601 - MA2605, MA2605 - MA2609, MA2609 - MA2601) [7][8][12] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [7][27][34] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations). The port total inventory is 1506470 tons (-5730 tons), and the downstream MTO operating rate is 90.27% (-0.15%) [3][7][37] 4. Regional Price Differences - It shows various regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest (-280), the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550), and the difference between Taicang and Lunan (-250), etc. [3][7][41] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [7][51][60] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - term: Conduct a sell - high reverse spread for MA2601 - MA2605 - Cross - variety: None [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production of methanol decreased due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than capacity outputs from recovery. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises increased this week, while the port inventory fluctuated slightly. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will accumulate next week. The overall operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry decreased this week, but it is expected to increase next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2260 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2208 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 1320963 lots, an increase of 123548 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 253892 lots, a decrease of 33714 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 11997, a decrease of 125 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2170 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2020 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 150 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract was - 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 258 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 324 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 267 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 66 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.34 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.09 dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 99.73 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 50.92 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons. The import profit of methanol was - 7.63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88 yuan. The monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 376100 tons, an increase of 15700 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 38.87%, a decrease of 2.01 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 74.4%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.79%, an increase of 4.67 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points. The disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 773 yuan/ton, an increase of 113 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 19.87%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.45%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.45%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 29, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 37.61 tons, an increase of 1.57 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 4.36%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 21.56 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 150.65 tons, a decrease of 0.57 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 2.40 tons. The domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 91.28%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points [2].