Report Title - Methanol Special Report: Limited Upside and Downside Space [1] Report Date - July 7, 2025 [2] Main Viewpoints - After the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, the premium brought by geopolitical risks has been reversed. Recently, the South Pars gas field has resumed gas supply, and some Iranian methanol plants have gradually restarted. The previous expectation of a significant reduction in Iranian methanol imports has been revised upwards. However, factors such as low Iranian methanol inventory and China's domestic ship policies will still affect the arrival schedule. Currently, domestic methanol production profits are substantial, and supply remains abundant. Affected by poor profits and seasonality, downstream demand is expected to decline. Especially after the sharp increase in methanol prices, the loss margins of downstream industries have expanded rapidly. Against the backdrop of low inventories in inland areas and ports, the upside and downside space of the 09 contract is limited before the inventory accumulation expectation is fully realized. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the actual operating status and shipping and dispatch situation of Iranian methanol plants, as well as the downstream's acceptance of high-priced methanol [4] Market Performance - After the previous Israel-Iran geopolitical conflict broke out, against the backdrop of the market's expectation of a significant reduction in imports, the methanol main contract quickly rose to a high of nearly 2,600 yuan/ton. However, after the conflict subsided, the methanol main contract began to decline significantly, but its price bottom has been significantly higher than before the conflict. Currently, the methanol main contract continues to fluctuate around the 2,400 yuan/ton level [7] - At the end of June, affected by factors such as tight port supplies, historically low inventories, and the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants due to the Israel-Iran conflict and the expected decline in imports, the methanol spot price skyrocketed, especially the paper cargo price in the second half of June soared (the paper cargo volume and position market emerged), but the futures price was relatively restrained. At this time, the methanol port basis once soared above 400 yuan/ton, showing a rare phenomenon of a high degree of divergence between the spot and futures markets. The fundamental reason lies in the different delivery targets. Since paper cargo is delivered with imported goods, it is affected by the Israel-Iran conflict, and the expected imported arrivals are scarce. Moreover, those who had previously shorted also have the need to cover their positions, which also amplifies price fluctuations. However, after the Israel-Iran conflict subsided, the imported arrivals gradually returned to normal, and this premium was quickly squeezed out. It can be seen that after the paper cargo short squeeze ended, the methanol spot price dropped nearly 260 yuan/ton the next day. However, since futures reflect the overall market situation, and domestic factories, coastal warehouses, and trader factories can all be used for delivery, and credit warehouse receipts can be used, the overall situation is unlikely to face a severe shortage of goods, and its price fluctuations are not as extreme as those on the paper cargo side and are relatively rational [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term of the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2430 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate decreased last week, and the Sinopec Zhongyuan olefin plant is planned to stop this week, so the operating rate may continue to decline [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 685,709 lots, a decrease of 9,054 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 98,061 lots, a decrease of 5,204 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,625, a decrease of 30 [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 282 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 340 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. FOB Rotterdam is 248 euros/ton, a decrease of 7 euros/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 58 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.39 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 50.95 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons; in South China ports, it is 16.42 million tons, a decrease of 1.03 million tons. The methanol import profit is 1.27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 million tons, an increase of 50.46 million tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 88.18%, a decrease of 3.13 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 46.07%, a decrease of 2.88 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%, a decrease of 3.97 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 93.42%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 65.06%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 84.6%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 919 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.45%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.89%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 18.53%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.68%, unchanged [3] Industry News - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.14%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. Due to the sub - optimal recovery of some olefin plants in the Northwest and the normal operation of supporting methanol plants, enterprise inventory accumulated rapidly. As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 13,500 tons, while that in South China decreased by 10,300 tons. Recently, the production capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was more than the production capacity output from recovery, resulting in a slight decrease in overall production [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-04甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口月内空单回补，短期太仓现货或相对坚挺，然边库跟涨乏力，且随着部分内地货量持续流入港口套 利，或对港口市场存一定冲击，随着逼仓结束，港口高位回落概率大。内地方面，业者心态分歧严重，传统下游高温淡 季以及内地甲醇开工仍然高位，部分业者心态稍显谨慎。但同时当前产区工厂库存偏低，以及七月份甲醇装置检修集 中，供应端或将缩量，以及经过近期的回调之后当前价位下后期下跌空间有限，部分贸易商仍有一定的持货意愿不排除 做多可能，对内地价格有托底作用，预计本周内地价格震荡调整。需持续关注下周美国与伊朗会谈情况及外盘装置变化 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-03甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口月内空单回补，短期太仓现货或相对坚挺，然边库跟涨乏力，且随着部分内地货量持续流入港口套 利，或对港口市场存一定冲击，随着逼仓结束，港口高位回落概率大。内地方面，业者心态分歧严重，传统下游高温淡 季以及内地甲醇开工仍然高位，部分业者心态稍显谨慎。但同时当前产区工厂库存偏低，以及七月份甲醇装置检修集 中，供应端或将缩量，以及经过近期的回调之后当前价位下后期下跌空间有限，部分贸易商仍有一定的持货意愿不排除 做多可能，对内地价格有托底作用，预计本周内地价格震荡调整。需持续关注下周美国与伊朗会谈情况及外盘装置变化 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-07-02 纸货交割结束后，港口基差快速回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润648元/吨（-13）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1943元/吨（-13），内蒙北线基差159元/吨（-16），内蒙南线1960元/吨（-100）；山东临沂2295元/吨（+15）， 鲁南基差111元/吨（+12）；河南2170元/吨（-30），河南基差-14元/吨（-33）；河北2185元/吨（-15），河北基差61元 /吨（-18）。隆众内地工厂库存341550吨（-25800），西北工厂库存205500吨（-31500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单240700 吨（-34080），西北工厂待发订单119500吨（-30000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2535元/吨（-270），太仓基差151元/吨（-273），CFR中国287美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差289 元/吨（-12），常州甲醇2435元/吨；广东甲醇2440元/吨（+0），广东基差56元/吨（-3）。隆众港口总库存670500吨 （+84100），江苏港口库存356500吨 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 延长中煤榆林二期本周预期停车检修，烯烃行业开工或继续降低。MA2509合约短线预计在2350-2400区间 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 波动。 甲醇产业日报 2025-07-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2384 | 3 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -36 | -4 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 756727 | -3249 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -102471 | -11969 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7885 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2520 | -270 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1942.5 | -50 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 577.5 | -220 郑醇主力合约基 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-07-01 伊朗甲醇进一步复工 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场分析 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润648元/吨（-13）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1943元/吨（-13），内蒙北线基差162元/吨（-1），内蒙南线1960元/吨（-100）；山东临沂2270元/吨（-10）， 鲁南基差89元/吨（+2）；河南2200元/吨（+0），河南基差19元/吨（+12）；河北2185元/吨（-15），河北基差64元/吨 （-3）。隆众内地工厂库存341550吨（-25800），西北工厂库存205500吨（-31500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单240700 吨（-34080），西北工厂待发订单119500吨（-30000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2790元/吨（-30），太仓基差409元/吨（-18），CFR中国287美元/吨（-4），华东进口价差301元/ 吨（+87），常州甲醇2435元/吨；广东甲醇2440元/吨（-15），广东基差59元/吨（-3）。隆众港口总库存670500吨（+84100）， 江苏港口库存356500吨（+63000）， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-01甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口月内空单回补，短期太仓现货或相对坚挺，然边库跟涨乏力，且随着部分内地货量持续流入港口套利， 或对港口市场存一定冲击，随着逼仓结束，港口高位回落概率大。内地方面，业者心态分歧严重，传统下游高温淡季以 及内地甲醇开工仍然高位，部分业者心态稍显谨慎。但同时当前产区工厂库存偏低，以及七月份甲醇装置检修集中，供 应端或将缩量，以及经过近期的回调之后当前价位下后期下跌空间有限，部分贸易商仍有一定的持货意愿不排除做多可 能，对内地价格有托底作用，预计本周内地价格震荡调整。需持续关注下周美国与伊朗会谈情况及外盘装置变化等 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, market risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was squeezed out, and methanol prices回调. Although the geopolitical situation may be volatile, methanol will gradually return to its fundamentals. The current domestic methanol supply - demand situation has little change, and the future impact may come from imports. Considering the impact on Iranian methanol supply, imports in July may decrease. With the support of low port inventories, the methanol price correction is expected to be limited. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2433 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.66%); MA05 closed at 2336 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.34%); MA09 closed at 2417 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (1.09%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Sichuan - Chongqing remained unchanged; the price in Hubei decreased by 45 yuan/ton (-1.89%), and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.50%); the price in Taicang increased by 120 yuan/ton (4.54%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 104 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged, while the price of Datong Q5500 increased by 5 yuan/ton (1.03%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.26%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged [1] - **Downstream Profit of Methanol**: The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 27.6 yuan/ton (5.23%); the profit of East China MTO decreased by 202 yuan/ton (-15.16%); the profit of acetic acid decreased by 33.27 yuan/ton (-10.27%); the profit of MTBE decreased by 41 yuan/ton (-27.98%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged [1] 3.4 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2384 yuan/ton, closing at 2417 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1620777 lots and an open interest of 857159, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 280 - 290 US dollars/ton. There are few fixed - price offers. The reference negotiation for far - future non - Iranian shipments is at +1.8 - 2%, and most of the formula - price negotiations this week are for the south. The far - future non - Iranian shipments were traded at +2 - 2.1%. In other Middle - East regions, the intended shipping price of a few far - future shipments is at +1.9%, but market participants are mostly on the sidelines, waiting for the resumption of a methanol plant in a Middle - East country [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, the market risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, and the methanol price dropped significantly. Although the geopolitical situation may be volatile, the market is no longer focused on conflict escalation. Methanol will gradually return to its own fundamentals. The domestic methanol supply - demand situation has little change and weak driving force. The possible impact on the future market lies in imports. Considering the impact on Iranian methanol supply, imports in July may decrease. With the support of the current low port inventory, the methanol price correction is expected to be limited. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2417 yuan/ton on June 25, up 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2328 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.30%); MA09 closed at 2391 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (0.50%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On June 25, the spot price in Taicang was 2645 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.38%); in Shandong, it was 2280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 1.30%); in Guangdong, it was 2455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.41%); in Shaanxi, it was 2065 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton (- 2.59%); in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, it remained unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1990 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 1.49%) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA remained unchanged at 228 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 427.50 yuan/ton and 485 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Yulin Q6000 was 495 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan/ton (0.51%) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 499.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 460.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO was 528.00 yuan/ton, up 52.80 yuan/ton (11.11%); the profit of East China MTO was - 1332.07 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan/ton (- 3.58%); the profit of acetic acid was 323.81 yuan/ton, down 5.77 yuan/ton (- 1.75%); the profit of MTBE was 146.52 yuan/ton, down 150.00 yuan/ton (- 50.59%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 252.40 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton (- 8.61%); the profit of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 518.00 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3. Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a narrow range, opening at 2383 yuan/ton, closing at 2391 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1052872 lots, and the open interest was 904409 lots, with volume shrinking and open interest increasing. All contracts had trading volumes during the trading day [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Today, the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - month is 275 - 284 US dollars/ton. Traders are mostly on the sidelines, and there is no news of actual transactions. In other regions of the Middle East, there is also a lack of active offer news. The reference negotiation price of cargoes from other Middle Eastern regions arriving in the near - far - month is + 1 - 1.2%. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of a certain country's device in the Middle East [1].