Core Insights - During the "May Day" holiday from May 1 to May 5, 2025, the duty-free shopping market in Hainan experienced significant consumer activity, with a total shopping amount of 510 million yuan [1] - The number of shoppers reached 79,100 during this holiday period, indicating a robust interest in duty-free shopping [1] Summary by Category - **Market Performance** - The total duty-free shopping amount reached 510 million yuan during the holiday [1] - The number of shoppers was recorded at 79,100 [1]

Core Insights - The Hainan duty-free shopping market experienced a surge in consumption during the May Day holiday, with a total shopping amount of 5.1 billion yuan and 79,100 shoppers [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Haikou Customs reported a total duty-free shopping amount of 5.1 billion yuan during the holiday period [1] - The number of shoppers reached 79,100, indicating strong consumer interest [1] Group 2: Consumer Experience - The shopping experience has shifted from being "price-driven" to "experience-driven" over the years [1] - Various delivery options have been introduced, including mailing, on-island pickup, and immediate pickup, enhancing consumer convenience [1] Group 3: Promotional Strategies - The China Duty Free Group's Sanya International Duty-Free City implemented government consumption support measures, offering discounts, multiple points, and gifts during the holiday [1] Group 4: Regulatory Measures - Haikou Customs enhanced smart regulatory measures to monitor the inventory flow of duty-free goods and improve service quality [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 showed a revenue of 16.746 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.96%, with a gross margin of 32.98% [1] - The decline in offshore duty-free sales is expected to stabilize, with a potential recovery in operations as demand improves [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from various supportive policies, a rebound in inbound tourism, and an expansion of product offerings, which could enhance profitability [1][3] - The introduction of new tax refund policies is anticipated to boost consumer spending among inbound tourists [3] - The long-term value of the company remains promising, with target prices set at 79.1 RMB for A-shares and 73.08 HKD for H-shares [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 16.746 billion, with a net profit of 1.938 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.98% [1] - The company expects EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.26, 2.56, and 2.91 RMB respectively [4] Market Trends - The sales figures for offshore duty-free in January, February, and March 2025 were 3.13 billion, 5.28 billion, and 2.90 billion respectively, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [2] - The recovery in airport passenger traffic is evident, with significant increases in international passenger throughput [2] Policy Impact - New tax refund policies are expected to enhance the shopping experience for inbound tourists, potentially increasing their spending [3] - The company is actively expanding its city store channels, which are expected to capture additional inbound tourist traffic [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.746 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 10.96%, with a gross margin of 32.98% [1]. - The decline in duty-free sales is expected to stabilize as the high base effect diminishes, leading to a potential recovery in operations [1]. - The company is positioned to benefit from various supportive policies, a rebound in inbound and outbound passenger flow, and an upgrade in product structure, which could enhance profitability [1]. - The new "buy and refund" tax policy is anticipated to boost consumer spending among inbound tourists [3]. - The company has plans to upgrade existing city stores and add new ones, which is expected to capture additional inbound customer traffic [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 16.746 billion RMB, with a net profit of 1.938 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 15.98% [1]. - The company forecasts EPS of 2.26, 2.56, and 2.91 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. Market Trends - Duty-free sales in January, February, and March 2025 were 3.13 billion, 5.28 billion, and 2.90 billion RMB, with year-over-year declines narrowing to -5.3% in March [2]. - The recovery in airport passenger flow is evident, with significant increases in international passenger throughput [2]. Valuation - The target price for A-shares is set at 79.1 RMB, and for H-shares at 73.08 HKD, reflecting a premium based on the company's leading position in the duty-free market [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, down 16.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [1][4]. - Despite the decline, the company is expected to benefit from the recovery of duty-free consumption and has strengthened its market share in the Hainan duty-free market, which increased by nearly 2 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has expanded its operations in various channels, including winning bids for duty-free projects at multiple airports and renewing agreements for city duty-free stores [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.46%, and a net profit of 0.35 billion yuan, down 76.93% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 28.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 3.5 percentage points [2]. Market Trends - The decline in Hainan's duty-free sales has narrowed, with sales of 8.41 billion yuan in January-February 2025, down 13.3% year-on-year, compared to a 29.3% decline for the entire year of 2024 [2]. Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 35.2% and 36.2%, respectively, with expected net profits of 4.97 billion yuan and 5.59 billion yuan [4][5]. - The report also includes a new forecast for 2027, projecting a net profit of 6.18 billion yuan [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics, including an expected EPS of 2.40 yuan for 2025 and a P/E ratio of 25 [5][12].