Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a challenging start to the year, with Q1 results not reflecting the stronger underlying performance and potential of the business [7] - Unplanned plant outages impacted productivity and absorption levels, masking at least $10 million of greater earnings power in Q1, suggesting an underlying EBITDA closer to the mid-$70 million range [10][11] - Overall volumes improved by 1% year-over-year and 10% sequentially, with the most significant improvements coming from low-margin regions [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Rubber segment saw a 2.5% volume improvement year-over-year and a 13% sequential improvement, benefiting from contractual mandates and operational improvements in China [35] - The Specialty segment characterized demand as choppy, with volumes improving 3% sequentially but declining 2% year-over-year [38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Rubber demand was off to a slow start, with U.S. tire production down low double-digit percentages in the first two months of the quarter, remaining below pre-COVID levels [11] - Elevated tire imports into key markets continued to be a headwind for local tire manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is taking protective measures to manage costs and bolster free cash flow in light of potential economic recession [8] - The changing global trade paradigm, including tariffs, is expected to benefit the carbon black industry and the company specifically [14][20] - The company is focused on improving operational reliability and efficiency, with plans to enhance maintenance and process yields [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the increased likelihood of an economic recession but noted no pronounced weakening in order books at this time [8] - The company expects demand inflection starting in the second half of 2025 as tire imports are anticipated to slow [18] - Management remains committed to delivering free cash flow and has reaffirmed guidance despite lower EBITDA expectations [32][43] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its 2025 CapEx spending expectations by $10 million, down to $150 million [33] - The company has repurchased $16 million worth of stock in Q1 and $105 million since the inception of the buyback program [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of outages in Q1 - Management indicated that the $13 million impact from outages was primarily contained in Q1, with some costs related to fixed cost absorption and timing [47][50] Question: Expectations for Q2 earnings - Management expects a step-up in earnings in Q2, with the impact of lower oil prices and inventory revaluation incorporated into guidance [51][55] Question: Timing of tariff benefits - Management anticipates seeing benefits from tariffs in the second half of 2025, with tire companies considering building more capacity in the U.S. [58][62] Question: Specialty Black business inventory drawdown - Management noted that distributors have slowed down a bit, indicating cautious behavior, but demand remains choppy [64] Question: Headwind from timing of input costs - Management mentioned that natural gas prices were a significant factor in Q1, but they do not expect this to be a recurring headline issue [71]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年5月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 利多： 黄金 1、基本面：鲍威尔重申不急于降息，消息称特朗普政府拟撤销拜登任内AI芯片限制 新规，金价回落；美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美元指数 涨0.64%报99.90，离岸人民币贬值报7.2283；美债收益率全线走低，10年期美债收 益率跌2.32个基点报4.2694%；COMEX黄金期货跌1.47%报3372.60美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货803.5，现货792.61，基差-1.19，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单15648千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年5月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美联储会议前，欧洲贸易谈判态度强硬，金价再度上涨；美国三大股指 全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.53%报99.27，离岸人民币直 线大幅震荡报7.2080；美债收益率全线走低，10年期美债收益率跌4.87个基点报 4.2946；COMEX黄金期货涨3.60%报3441.80美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注国务院新闻发布会、美联储议息会议、法国3月贸易帐。美联储 会议前，关税不确定性依旧高涨，风险偏好降温，金价再度走高，早间中美会面消 息，另风险偏好再度升温，金价明显回落。沪金 ...

20250430棉系月报： 国内植棉进入苗期 关注后市关税政策调整 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 时间：2025年4月30日 周度综述：摘要 | | | | | | | 棉花供需平衡表(4月) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标(万吨) | | | 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 | | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (3月) | 2024/25 (4月) | 月度调整 | 年度同比 | | | 中国 | 597.7 | 644.5 | 583.5 | 668.4 | 595.4 | 691.2 | 696.6 | 5.4 | 101.2 | | | 印度 | 620.5 | 598.7 | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 544.3 | 544.3 | 0.0 | -8.7 | | | 巴西 | 283 | 300 | 235.6 | 255.2 | 317.2 | ...

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货4月30日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计959689千克，今日仓单较上一 日增加28365千克。 此外，未来收入前景在五年来首次转为负面，悲观情绪进一步蔓延至股市。调查显示，48.5%的人预计 未来12个月股价将下跌，这是自2011年10月以来的最差数据。通胀预期也显著上升，明年的通胀预期达 到7%，为2022年11月以来的最高水平。 沪银主力短线还是继续看回落，今日白银期货开盘报8259元/千克，最高触及8295元/千克，最低触及 8172元/千克，截止收盘报8182元/千克，日内跌幅0.41%。 推动这种悲观情绪的主要因素是对关税的担忧，该担忧在调查中达到了历史最高水平。同时，经济衰退 的预期也攀升至两年来的高点。 【基本面消息】 地区 仓库 期货 增减 上海 中储吴淞 112171 0 外运华东虹桥 114247 5199 中工美供应链 454927 25232 合计 681345 30431 广东 深圳威豹 278344 -2066 总计 959689 28365 随着美国经济数据持续疲软，市场普遍预期美联储将于年中重启降息周期。目前，交易员预计到2025年 底，联邦基金利率 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250429 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美债利率持续回落，A 股节前避险情绪浓厚 海外方面，美国"软数据"继续恶化，4 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数大幅低于预期，创 下 2020 年 5 月来新低，关税引发的"滞涨"预期仍在发酵。美财政部上调二季度举债规模 预期至 5140 亿美元，针对债务上限问题的"X 日"将于近期公布。美国财长：首笔贸易协 议可能最早在本周或下周达成，印度或是首批之一。美元指数失守 99 关口，10Y 美债利率 下行至 4.2%、创三周新低，金价、铜价收涨，油价回落。 国内方面，发改委：我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措；将建立 实施育儿补贴制度，定向增发购车指标。常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备。央行：将适时 降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具。A 股继续缩量下跌，两市成交额回落至 1.08 万 亿，假期前夕避险情绪浓厚，风格上北证 50、小微盘股跌幅较大， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is currently in a state of short - term weakness due to the decline in expectations of central bank easing, but the market has not given up on trading for future easing. Long - term and ultra - long - term bonds are expected to perform better than medium - and short - term bonds, and far - month contracts are better than near - month contracts. Prudent investors can stay on the sidelines [7]. - The current domestic economic data shows a comprehensive recovery, but the financial assets are weak because the market anticipates that the current high - growth data may be the peak in the future. There are also strong expectations of economic weakness under future tariff conflicts [24]. - Globally, the US economic data is showing signs of weakening, especially in the service sector. The US simple - minded tariff - adding policy will lead to a significant slowdown in the US economic growth and bring recession and deflationary pressures to non - US countries [24][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - In the bond market, the short - term weakness is due to the disappointment of central bank easing expectations. The market still has expectations for future easing, and the phenomenon of "lengthening duration for defense" is emerging, with short - term bonds weakening and long - term and ultra - long - term bonds relatively strong [7]. - For equity assets, the bottom is relatively clear under the strong support of the "national team", but the upward elasticity requires both micro and macro drivers [7]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes (P5 - 6) - Domestic bond yields fluctuated slightly, US bond yields declined for the second consecutive week, the US dollar index was flat, gold soared and then retreated, and the commodity and equity markets were mainly in a volatile state [9]. 3.3 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - Domestic: The year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in March declined significantly, while the cumulative growth rate from January to March increased. The main contributing sectors were non - ferrous metals, special equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment. The inventory form showed weak restocking willingness at the enterprise level [7][18]. - Overseas: US economic data weakened, with the service sector PMI significantly lower than the previous value and expectations. Although the manufacturing PMI rebounded, it was not enough to offset the decline in the service sector. The market has priced in the expected significant decline of US macroeconomic data to some extent [7]. 3.4 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P14 - 24) - After the tax - payment period, the fund flow fluctuated and declined. The central bank announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on the 25th, with 100 billion yuan due this month. The LPR quote remained unchanged, and the market's expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts continued to decline [7][32]. - The fund flow remained loose this week, falling below 1.7% on Friday. The disappointment of easing expectations dragged down the short - term bond market, especially since bond assets implied an expected interest rate cut of approximately 30bp [7][32]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P25 - 29) No relevant content provided. 3.6 Medium - Term Macroeconomic Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P30 - 46) - The Politburo meeting set the tone for the economic situation as improving but facing increasing external shocks. Policy priorities are employment > short - term economic growth and high - quality development > extensive strong stimulus [7][19]. - Fiscal policy focuses on accelerating the use of local bonds and special treasury bonds, and there is no mention of additional issuance. Monetary policy has changed from "seizing the opportunity" to "timely", reducing the short - term necessity and freedom of interest rate cuts but increasing the autonomy of future monetary easing [7][19]. 3.7 Long - Wave Macroeconomic Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P47 - 48) No relevant content provided.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported a GAAP net loss of $10.6 million or $0.15 per share, with a book value of $14.44 per share, down approximately 2% from the prior quarter [4][13] - Distributable earnings for the quarter were $17 million or $0.25 per share, aligning with the dividend payout [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed four loans totaling $376 million, primarily secured by Class A multifamily properties, with a weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) of 69% and a coupon of SOFR plus 277 basis points [11] - Repayments in the quarter amounted to $184 million, contributing to net fundings of $222 million [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The pipeline reached a record high of over $30 billion, indicating strong market demand despite increased spreads in various loan sectors [10] - Warehouse financing and senior loan spreads widened by approximately 10 to 15 basis points, while transitional loan sector spreads increased by 15 to 20 basis points [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a defensive posture while actively seeking new investment opportunities, particularly in the European lending market [7][11] - The strategy includes diversifying the portfolio and adding duration, with a strong emphasis on high-quality assets [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about market volatility and recession expectations but believes real estate is better positioned compared to past cycles [6] - The company anticipates that repayments will exceed $1 billion this year, tracking well above previous expectations [10] Other Important Information - The company has no corporate maturities until February 2030 and has ample liquidity of over $700 million [7][18] - The CECL reserve increased to $144 million due to two loan downgrades, but 90% of the loan portfolio remains risk-rated three or better [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about macro issues and dividend policy - Management is monitoring both macroeconomic conditions and specific portfolio risks, noting that while there is heightened awareness, no specific asset is of particular concern [25][30] - Regarding the dividend policy, management feels comfortable with the current level and will evaluate it quarterly, considering the potential for future earnings growth from REO assets [32][33] Question: Originating in Europe and leveraging repayments - The company has been actively originating in Europe and expects to close deals soon, focusing on Western Europe and the UK [40] - Management indicated that while leverage is currently at 3.9 times, they are tracking repayments ahead of schedule and will focus on origination to maximize earnings [42][44] Question: Downgrade of Raleigh multifamily loan - The downgrade was due to the inability to drive rents in the submarket, with the property being on the watch list for some time [50][51] Question: Life Science sector outlook - Management believes that the life science sector has long-term positive fundamentals but faces cyclical headwinds, with expectations for a recovery depending on the economic environment [54][80] Question: New lending opportunities and market conditions - The current opportunity set allows for lending at lower valuations, with a shift towards more stabilized assets rather than transitional ones [60][62] - The company is seeing a significant amount of refinancing activity, with around 70% of the pipeline focused on refinancing rather than new acquisitions [67] Question: Portfolio growth expectations - Management anticipates some incremental growth in the portfolio but is approaching the upper limit of target leverage [76]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The global trade friction has entered a tough - on - tough stage after Trump announced the reciprocal tariff policy on April 2nd. Market panic has soared to a new high since 2020, and the precious metals market is in a dual - game situation of safe - haven demand and liquidity pressure. The market volatility is expected to remain high in the near future, and attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between countries and the US and the performance of US economic data [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: During the day, the outer - market precious metals rose slightly. London gold temporarily reclaimed the $3000 mark and was trading around $3004, while London silver was fluctuating around the $30 mark and was trading around $30.1. Affected by the outer - market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.37% at 719.22 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.26% at 7683 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Dollar index: The dollar index fluctuated sideways and was trading around 103.1 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds gave back part of yesterday's gains and was trading around 4.14% [4]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to weaken and was trading around 7.336 [5]. Important Information - Trump administration: On the 7th, Trump said he would not suspend reciprocal tariff measures and rejected the EU's proposed mutual tariff exemption policy; Trump's team considered an export tax credit policy; seven Republican senators supported a bill to limit Trump's tariff power; the White House denied the rumor of suspending tariffs for 90 days; US Treasury Secretary said it was unlikely to reach a trade agreement with any country before April 9th, and nearly 70 countries were seeking negotiations; the US plans to increase the tariff on Canadian timber from 14.4% to 34.45% [6]. - Other countries' tariff measures: The EU proposed to impose a 25% tariff on some US products starting from April 15th in two steps, and the second part will start on May 15th; the Japanese Prime Minister said Japan would not retaliate against the US [6]. - Fed's view: Fed Governor Kugler said ensuring inflation does not rise is a priority [7]. - Fed's observation: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 43%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 20.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 49.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut is 29.9% [8][10]. Logical Analysis The reciprocal tariff policy has led to market concerns about counter - measures from other countries, and the market is trading the recession expectation again. The precious metals market is affected by both the liquidity pressure of other markets and its own safe - haven property, with certain support below. High market volatility is expected to continue [11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Try to go long on dips and pay attention to the effectiveness of the support near the previous low [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Collar call option strategy [14]. Data Reference - Multiple data charts are provided, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, spot - futures trends, domestic - foreign spreads, ETF holdings, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [16][19][21] etc.

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250408 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 海外方面，在对等关税落地生效前，关税博弈牵动全球市场。特朗普称不会暂停对等关 税措施，拒绝欧盟提议的互免关税政策，但对谈判持开放态度；若中国不取消上周对美国产 品加征的 34%关税，威胁对华再额外加征 50%关税。美盘市场波动加剧、避险交易暂时缓 和，美元指数回升至 103.5，10Y 美债利率从 3.87%回升至 4.2%，纳指震荡收涨，金价下跌 1.8%、伦铜创下 16 个月新低、油价创下近 4 年新低。 国内方面，A 股在假期贸易冲突升级、全球衰退预期下补跌，上证指数跌破 3100 关口 （-7.3%），中证 1000、创业板指、北证 50 跌幅分别为 11.4%、12.5%、18%，两市成交额 回升至 1.6 万亿，行业上仅在中国出口反制下的农业板块收涨。特朗普威胁对华再加征 50% 关税，在幅度上对贸易影响边际减弱，但意味着中美贸易脱钩缓和余地在骤降，隔夜美股止 跌但中概股跌幅调整超 5%，短期国内风险 ...