1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract's disk is weakly volatile, with the Fed's interest - rate cut implemented, recent oil price fluctuations, the agricultural film demand entering the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being moderately high. For PP, the main - contract's disk is also weakly volatile, with the Fed's interest - rate cut, recent oil price fluctuations, stable downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and moderately high industrial inventory [4][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The Fed's interest - rate cut was implemented, and the recent oil price is volatile. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film is mainly for rigid demand. Downstream production has increased, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7120 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 22, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is long, with a reduction in long positions, which is bullish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support and demand gradually entering the peak season; bearish factors are that the year - on - year demand is still weak [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in August, manufacturing sentiment improved, China's export volume increased year - on - year but declined from July, the Fed's interest - rate cut was implemented, and the oil price is volatile. Downstream demand is gradually turning to the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is stable. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6750 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 127, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.8%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors are geopolitical unrest providing cost support and demand gradually entering the peak season; bearish factors are that the year - on - year demand is still weak [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a production - capacity growth rate ranging from 5.1% - 20.5%. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a production - capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% - 15.5%. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7120 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 7142 (37), the basis is - 22 (-67), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), and the social PE inventory is 535,000 tons (-12,000) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6750 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 6877 (35), the basis is - 127 (-65), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (3,000) [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、地缘动荡，成本支撑 • 2、需求逐渐进入旺季 • 利空 • 1、同比需求仍偏弱 • 主要逻辑：成本需求，国内宏观政策推动 • 主要风险点：原油大幅波动、国际政策博弈 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-24 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。美联储降息落地，原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导 人通话同意平等磋商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，农膜逐渐进入旺季，包装膜以刚需为主， 下 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 23, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are bearish, but there are also some bullish factors such as geopolitical instability and the approaching peak season for demand [4][7]. Summary by Category LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the recent oil price has been fluctuating. The demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season, but it is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,150 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 20, with a premium ratio of 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent oil price has been fluctuating, the demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The demand for downstream products such as pipes and plastic weaving is stable as they gradually enter the peak season. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,800 (0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -73, with a premium ratio of -1.1%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent oil price has been fluctuating, the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also shown an upward trend, and the import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,150 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 7,130 (-39), the basis is 20 (9), and the comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,800 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6,873 (-41), the basis is -73 (41), and the comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。美联储降息落地，原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导 人通话同意平等磋商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，农膜逐渐进入旺季，包装膜以刚需为主， 下游开工提升，但整体需求仍较往年偏弱。当前LL交割品现货价7180（-40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差11，升贴水比例0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE and PP, the market is expected to be volatile today. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to fluctuations in crude oil prices, providing cost support. The demand for agricultural films and downstream products such as pipes and woven plastics is gradually entering the peak season, but the year - on - year demand is still weak, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Crude oil prices are fluctuating. The demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 32, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is volatile. With geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the demand for agricultural films is in the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season [5] - **Negative Factors**: Year - on - year demand is still weak [5] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Crude oil prices are fluctuating. The downstream demand for pipes, woven plastics, etc., is gradually entering the peak season. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6850 (0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 76, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.1%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000 tons), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has increased, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is volatile. With geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the demand for downstream products such as pipes and woven plastics has improved, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season [8] - **Negative Factors**: Year - on - year demand is still weak [8] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The price of the spot delivery product is 7220 (-10), the price of the 01 contract is 7188 (-57), the basis is 32, the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and the social inventory is 547,000 tons (-14,000 tons) [10] - **PP**: The price of the spot delivery product is 6850 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6926 (-56), the basis is - 76, the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000 tons), and the social inventory is 283,000 tons (-12,000 tons) [10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have also increased. The import dependence has decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the LLDPE and PP markets. For both, the expected trend for the day is an oscillating one. The main influencing factors include geopolitical unrest in the crude - oil market, the approach of the demand peak season, and relatively weak year - on - year demand [4][7]. - The main logic behind the market movements is cost - demand factors and the push from domestic macro - policies [6][9]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Crude - oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical unrest. The demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films is picking up. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7230 (+50), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 4, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.1%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 545,000 tons (+35,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, year - on - year demand remains weak [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in August, the official and Caixin PMIs improved. Crude - oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical unrest. The downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6850 (- 0), with overall neutral fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 120, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.7%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 575,000 tons (- 8,000), which is bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, year - on - year demand remains weak [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7230 (+50), the price of the 01 contract is 7234 (+2), the basis is - 4 (+48), the warehouse receipt is 12,736 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 545,000 tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 547,000 tons (- 14,000) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6850 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 6970 (+4), the basis is - 120 (- 4), the warehouse receipt is 13,706 (unchanged), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 575,000 tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 295,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption have increased. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023, and the consumption growth rate has also fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, suggesting that both are expected to show a volatile trend today. The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, while the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises is slowly recovering, with overall demand still weaker than in previous years, and other packaging films are mainly purchased on demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7210 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 35, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 50.9 million tons (+2.3), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. The demand for agricultural films is rising but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factor is weak demand [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned. There is new PP production capacity being put into operation, and downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, with expected improvements in demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6900 (- 0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 61, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.9%, which is bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.2 million tons (+4.3), which is bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [8]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. There is new production capacity being put into operation recently, and there are expectations of improvement in downstream pipes, plastic weaving, etc. The industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [8]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factor is weak demand [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [19].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 5, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with both positive and negative factors present. The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, while the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8] Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises has increased slightly, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. Other packaging films have seen increased demand due to the approaching peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,200 yuan (- 30 yuan), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 25, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.3%, neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (+ 23,000 tons), neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today. Although the demand for agricultural film is recovering, it is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is neutral [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; bearish factors include weak demand [6] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. New PP production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved as the peak season approaches. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,900 yuan (- 50 yuan), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 39, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.6%, bearish [8] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 582,000 tons (+ 43,000 tons), bearish [8] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [8] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the PP main contract is increasing, bullish [8] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today. There is new production capacity, downstream demand has improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral [8] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; bearish factors include weak demand [9] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of delivery products is 7,200 yuan (- 30 yuan), the price of the 01 contract is 7,225 yuan (- 22 yuan), the basis is - 25 (- 8), the warehouse receipt is 8,263 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 509,000 tons (+ 23,000 tons), and the PE social inventory is 561,000 tons (- 2,000 tons) [11] - **PP**: The current spot price of delivery products is 6,900 yuan (- 50 yuan), the price of the 01 contract is 6,939 yuan (- 15 yuan), the basis is - 39 (- 35), the warehouse receipt is 13,795 (- 7), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 582,000 tons (+ 43,000 tons), and the PP social inventory is 286,000 tons (+ 26,000 tons) [11] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic macro sentiment is high, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3600 - point mark, and the capital market sentiment has turned warm. Along with the "anti - involution" policy of domestic chemical enterprises, the polyolefin reverse spread market has stabilized. Currently, the crude oil price is oscillating at a low level. In the first half of the year, 3.53 million tons of PE production capacity was put into operation (70% completed), with a remaining plan of 1.5 million tons; 4.5 million tons of PP production capacity was put into operation (70% completed), with a remaining plan of 1.9 million tons. Against the background that the supply - side pressure of the polyolefin 09 contract has not been falsified, even if the agricultural film orders at the demand - side rebound, the upward momentum of the polyolefin seasonal peak season is limited [15][16]. 3. Summaries according to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - level Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy and Valuation**: The domestic macro sentiment is high, the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3600 points, and the capital market sentiment has improved. The weekly increase rates of polyethylene and polypropylene are in the order of cost > futures > spot [15]. - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil fell by 2.64%, Brent crude oil fell by 1.88%, coal price rose by 2.82%, methanol fell by 0.41%, ethylene rose by 3.93%, propylene rose by 3.19%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00%. The cost - side support has weakened [15]. - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization rate is 84.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.53%, a year - on - year increase of 2.26%, and a decrease of 5.72% compared with the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate is 78.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.74%, a year - on - year increase of 8.51%, and a decrease of 9.16% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the PE production capacity will face greater pressure in August [15]. - **Import and Export**: In June, the domestic PE import volume was 959,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.63%. The PP import volume was 153,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.78%. The import profit has decreased, and the PE supply from North America has decreased, reducing the import - side pressure. In June, the PE export volume was 96,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95% and a year - on - year increase of 48.84%. The PP export volume was 209,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.29% and a year - on - year increase of 39.35%. The 40% transit tariff imposed by the US on Vietnam, the largest destination of China's PP exports, may hinder PP exports [15]. - **Demand**: The PE downstream operating rate is 39.20%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.45%. The PP downstream operating rate is 49.35%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 0.59%. At the end of the seasonal off - season, no increase in downstream agricultural film orders has been seen [15]. - **Inventory**: The PE production enterprise inventory is 444,500 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 13.76% and a year - on - year destocking of 2.63%; the PE trader inventory is 60,900 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 0.48%. The PP production enterprise inventory is 587,500 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 0.07% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 10.25%; the PP trader inventory is 179,700 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 4.06%; the PP port inventory is 60,500 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 0.98% [15]. - **Prediction and Strategy**: This week, the reference oscillation range for polyethylene (LL2509) is (7200 - 7500); for polypropylene (PP2509), it is (7000 - 7300). It is recommended to continue holding the LL9 - 1 reverse spread position for profit - taking [15]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - In August, there are many PE production plans, and the LL - PP spread may oscillate weakly [65]. 3.3 Cost - side - **Overall Cost Changes**: The oil - based cost has decreased significantly. Last week, WTI crude oil fell by 2.64%, Brent crude oil fell by 1.88%, coal price rose by 2.82%, methanol fell by 0.41%, ethylene rose by 3.93%, propylene rose by 3.19%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00% [15]. - **LPG - related Situation**: The gross profit of major refineries has rebounded, and the operating rate has increased. In July, the LPG shipment volume rebounded, and the supply from the Middle East continued to increase [97][117]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - side - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of raw materials for PE production is 62.00% oil - based, 19.00% light - hydrocarbon - based, 15.00% coal - based, 3.00% methanol - based, and 1.00% purchased ethylene - based [151]. - **Capacity and Production Plan**: The total domestic PE production capacity has been increasing. In 2025, 3.53 million tons of production capacity has been put into operation, and 1.5 million tons is yet to be put into operation. Some projects have been postponed [155][157]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The PE capacity utilization rate and maintenance reduction volume have shown certain trends over time [160][162].

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report, dated August 8, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the macro - driven growth has subsided, it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, and downstream demand is weak with neutral industrial inventory. For PP, the macro - driven growth has also declined, and downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak with neutral industrial inventory [4][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to promote the stable growth of key industries including the petrochemical industry. However, the short - term price increase driven by anti - involution sentiment has subsided, and oil prices have also fallen. It's the off - season for agricultural film, and demand for other film types is flat, with many downstream enterprises under maintenance. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7270 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 27, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.7 million tons (+1.4), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy promotion [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro environment shows a decline in the manufacturing PMI. The short - term price increase has subsided, and oil prices have fallen. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and industries such as pipes and plastic weaving are weak due to summer weather. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7100 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 25, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.7 million tons (+0.6), which is bearish [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy promotion [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing over the years. The consumption growth rate has shown fluctuations, with a 1.4% increase in 2024 [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been rising, with an expected 11.0% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has also decreased, and the consumption growth rate has varied, reaching 8.4% in 2024 [17]