Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions, important information, logic, and trading strategies of plastics (L) and polypropylene (PP) from September 19 to October 28, 2025. The market prices of L and PP fluctuate, affected by factors such as policy, production capacity, inventory, and international events. The trading strategies include holding long or short positions, trial trading, and waiting and seeing, depending on different market situations and data analysis. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: The price of L2601 contract fluctuates, and the LLDPE market price in different regions shows partial increases, decreases, or stable trends. The trading atmosphere in the market is generally cautious, with downstream procurement mainly based on demand [1][4][8]. - **PP Polypropylene**: The price of PP2601 contract also fluctuates, and the PP market price shows large - scale stability with small fluctuations. The impact of futures on the spot market is complex, and downstream procurement is relatively cautious [1][4][8]. Important Information - **Policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value from 2025 to 2026 [4]. - **International Events**: Events such as the US government shutdown, Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on China, and the reorganization plan of chemical companies have an impact on the market [15][18]. - **Industry Development**: Projects such as the successful commissioning of Liaoyang Petrochemical's 100,000 - ton/year nylon 66 project and the release of the group enterprise reorganization plan of Daicel and Polyplastics have implications for the industry [18][21]. Logic Analysis - **Supply - related Factors**: Factors such as changes in domestic PE and PP production capacity utilization rates, registered warehouse receipts, and net imports affect the market. For example, an increase in production capacity utilization rates may lead to an increase in supply and put pressure on prices [2][5][9]. - **Demand - related Factors**: Indicators such as the manufacturing PMI, the US manufacturing PMI, and the logistics industry prosperity index reflect the demand situation and have an impact on the market [16][26][30]. - **External Factors**: Fluctuations in international oil prices, changes in the global economic policy uncertainty index, and changes in the freight index also affect the market [13][16][42]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies include holding long or short positions, trial trading, and waiting and seeing, with specific stop - loss points set according to market conditions [2][5][9]. - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Most of the time, it is recommended to wait and see, and in some cases, hold or intervene in positions with corresponding stop - loss settings [2][5][9]. - **Options**: Generally, it is recommended to wait and see, and in some cases, sell options with stop - loss settings [2][5][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views The reports focus on the market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies of plastic (L) and polypropylene (PP) futures. The market shows fluctuations in prices and trading volumes, affected by various factors such as industry policies, economic data, and geopolitical events. The trading strategies suggest different positions (long, short, or hold) and stop - loss levels based on the analysis of these factors [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Prices show fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price increases or decreases. Trading volumes are affected by market sentiment, with downstream demand varying from cautious to slightly improved. For example, on 25 - 10 - 27, L2601 contract rose 36 points or 0.52% to 7005 points, and LLDPE market prices had small fluctuations [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Similar to L, PP prices also fluctuate. Some regions see price increases, while downstream demand remains relatively weak in general. On 25 - 10 - 27, PP2601 contract rose 29 points or 0.44% to 6691 points, and the PP market continued a small upward trend [1]. Important News - **Industry Policies**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other 7 departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in industry added value from 2025 to 2026 [1]. - **Economic and Geopolitical Events**: Events such as the US government shutdown, US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions in Venezuela have an impact on the market [10][13]. Logical Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Some factors are positive for the polyolefin market, such as the increase in domestic pipeline transportation investment, the increase in US manufacturing PMI, and the increase in the ratio of Baltic dry bulk freight index to Baltic crude oil freight index [17][24]. - **Negative Factors**: Other factors are negative, including the decrease in global stock market value, the decrease in domestic real - estate market indicators, and the decrease in some economic data [43][28]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Strategies suggest different actions for L and PP contracts, such as holding long or short positions, setting stop - loss levels, or taking a wait - and - see approach [2]. - **Arbitrage**: Some reports suggest holding or taking a wait - and - see approach for L - PP spreads [2]. - **Options**: Most reports recommend a wait - and - see approach for options trading [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the plastics and PP main contracts expected to fluctuate weakly today. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins is limited. The outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations is uncertain, and oil prices are continuously falling [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity improved but was still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remained unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins was limited. On the 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call, and there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, causing oil prices to fall. On the supply - demand side, the agricultural film operation was stable with a slight increase in the start - up rate, and the demand for other films was good as Double 11 approached. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price was 6920 (+0), and the overall fundamentals were bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract was 41, and the premium - discount ratio was 0.6%, which was bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory was 58.0 tons (+3.7), which was neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day line, which was bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract decreased, which was bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract was expected to fluctuate weakly. With the decline in crude oil prices, stable operation of the agricultural film industry, and a moderately high industrial inventory, the PE was expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. - **Positive Factors**: The demand in the peak season increased month - on - month [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand was weak year - on - year, there were many new production projects in the fourth quarter, and there were Sino - US trade risks [5]. - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand were driven by domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity improved but was still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remained unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins was limited. On the 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call, and there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, causing oil prices to fall. On the supply - demand side, plastic weaving was supported by the peak season and performed well, while the demand for pipes increased but was still weak year - on - year. The current PP delivery product spot price was 6550 (-0), and the overall fundamentals were bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract was - 15, and the premium - discount ratio was - 0.2%, which was neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory was 67.9 tons (-0.3), which was bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day line, which was bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract decreased, which was bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract was expected to fluctuate weakly. With the decline in crude oil prices, the launch of new production capacity, the maintenance of the average downstream start - up rate, and a moderately high industrial inventory, the PP was expected to fluctuate weakly today [6]. - **Positive Factors**: The demand in the peak season increased month - on - month [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand was weak year - on - year, there were many new production projects in the fourth quarter, and there were Sino - US trade risks [7]. - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand were driven by domestic macro - policies [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price was 6920 (unchanged), the 01 - contract price was 6879 (+5), the basis was 41 (-5), the comprehensive PE factory inventory was 58.0 tons, and the social PE inventory was 54.6 tons [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price was 6550 (unchanged), the 01 - contract price was 6565 (+14), the basis was - 15 (-14), the comprehensive PP factory inventory was 67.9 tons, and the social PP inventory was 34.9 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with the production capacity growth rate reaching 20.5% in 2025E [12]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally increased, with the production capacity growth rate expected to be 11.0% in 2025E [14].

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: October 20, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the expectation of a weak and volatile trend in the market today. Factors contributing to this include the "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern in the long - term for crude oil, limited support for the cost side of polyolefins, uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, and relatively high industrial inventories [4][6]. Summary by Sections LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, and oil prices are falling. The agricultural film industry is operating steadily with a slight increase in the operating rate, and the demand for other film types is good as Double 11 approaches. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6910 (-40), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 19, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.0 tons (+3.7), considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, showing a bullish sign [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today, affected by falling crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, stable operation of the agricultural film industry, and relatively high industrial inventories [4]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is the seasonally increased demand; bearish factors are the weak year - on - year demand, significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows improved but still contracting manufacturing sentiment. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil provides limited cost support. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, and oil prices are falling. The plastic weaving industry is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is increasing but still weak year - on - year. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-10), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 68, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, considered bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 67.9 tons (-0.3), considered neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, showing a bearish sign [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today, affected by falling crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, new production capacity coming online, stable downstream average operating rate, and relatively high industrial inventories [6]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is the seasonally increased demand; bearish factors are the weak year - on - year demand, significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [7]. Market Data Tables - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6910 (-40), the 01 contract price is 6929 (+19), the basis is - 19 (-59), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 58.0 (+3.7), and the social inventory is 54.6 (+2.1) [8]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6550 (-10), the 01 contract price is 6618 (+23), the basis is - 68 (-33), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 67.9 (-0.3), and the social inventory is 34.9 (-2.3) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an increasing trend, with fluctuations in the import dependence. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with the import dependence showing a downward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Sino-US trade war has led to a volatile downward trend in crude oil prices. Polyolefin registered warrants are at a historically high level for the same period, suppressing the market, and the polyolefin market continues in a contango situation. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, the rebound in downstream demand is weaker than in previous years, potentially resulting in a scenario where the peak season is not prosperous [15][17][18] - It is predicted that polyethylene (LL2601) will oscillate in the range of 7200 - 7500, and polypropylene (PP2601) in the range of 7000 - 7300. The recommended strategy is to adopt a wait-and-see approach [17] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information**: The Sino-US trade war has escalated again, causing crude oil prices to oscillate downward. In terms of valuation, polyethylene's weekly decline is in the order of futures > spot > cost, while for polypropylene, it is spot > futures > cost. On the cost side, last week, WTI crude oil dropped by -6.84%, Brent crude oil by -6.55%, coal prices rose by 4.58%, methanol by 3.11%, ethylene by -2.36%, and propylene by -3.94%, with propane remaining unchanged at 0.00%. There is still support on the cost side [15] - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization is 82.45%, a -1.86% decrease from the previous period, a 7.69% increase compared to the same period last year, and a -4.90% decrease compared to the average of the past 5 years. PP capacity utilization is 77.27%, a -0.68% decrease from the previous period, a -1.29% decrease compared to the same period last year, and a -7.77% decrease compared to the average of the past 5 years. According to the production plan, there is significant production pressure for polypropylene in the fourth quarter [15] - **Imports and Exports**: In August, domestic PE imports were 95.02 tons, a -14.17% decrease from the previous period and a -22.11% decrease compared to the same period last year. PP imports were 15.96 tons, a -9.91% decrease from the previous period and a -22.23% decrease compared to the same period last year. Import profits have declined, the supply of PE from North America has decreased, and the pressure on the import side has lessened. In August, PE exports were 11.60 tons, a 14.12% increase from the previous period and a 61.83% increase compared to the same period last year. PP exports were 25.02 tons, a 5.99% increase from the previous period and a 32.77% increase compared to the same period last year. With the start of Christmas stockpiling, PP exports may remain at a high level year-on-year [16] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 45.00%, a 1.44% increase from the previous period and a -0.13% decrease compared to the same period last year. The downstream operating rate of PP is 51.80%, a 0.08% increase from the previous period and a 0.12% increase compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal peak season, the downstream demand for polyolefins is lower than in previous years [16] - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 52.95 tons, a 8.37% increase in inventory from the previous period and a -1.74% decrease compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory is 5.03 tons, a -6.83% decrease in inventory. PP production enterprise inventory is 67.87 tons, a -0.40% decrease in inventory from the previous period and a 15.01% increase compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory is 23.86 tons, a -8.62% decrease in inventory; PP port inventory is 6.79 tons, a -1.16% decrease in inventory. Overall, the inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see approach [17] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **LLDPE**: The closing price of the LLDPE main contract is 6910, a -3.77% change from the previous week; the spot price is 6990, a -2.58% change. Trading volume is 1,241,849 lots, a decrease of 3,297,726 lots from the previous week; open interest is 2,814,881 lots, a decrease of 10,944,309 lots. The basis is 80, an increase of 42 from the previous week; the spread between May and September contracts is -52, an increase of 0.21 [20] - **PP**: The closing price of the PP main contract is 6595, a -4.46% change from the previous week; the spot price is 6625, a -2.50% change. Trading volume is 1,936,771 lots, a decrease of 3,947,414 lots from the previous week; open interest is 3,235,034 lots, a decrease of 12,067,276 lots. The basis is 30, a decrease of 5 from the previous week; the spread between May and September contracts is -24, an increase of 0.33 [20] - **Price Relationship**: The South Korean ethylene plant clearance policy may boost the long - term strengthening of the LL - PP spread [61] 3. Cost Side - **Cost Changes**: Oil - based costs have significantly decreased. Last week, WTI crude oil dropped by -6.84%, Brent crude oil by -6.55%, coal prices rose by 4.58%, methanol by 3.11%, ethylene by -2.36%, and propylene by -3.94%, with propane remaining unchanged at 0.00% [15] - **LPG Import**: Freight rates for LPG imports have significantly decreased [106] 4. Polyethylene Supply Side - **Raw Material Composition**: The raw materials for PE production are mainly oil - based (80.00%), followed by light hydrocarbon (12.00%), coal - based (5.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased ethylene (1.00%) [136] - **Production Capacity and Output**: In 2025, a total of 463 tons of polyethylene production capacity has been put into operation, with 40 tons yet to be put into operation. The current PE capacity utilization is 82.45%, a -1.86% decrease from the previous period [142] - **Maintenance Situation**: There are multiple polyethylene plants with maintenance plans, with a total planned maintenance volume of 560.5 tons this month and a return volume of 255 tons [154] 5. Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 52.95 tons, a 8.37% increase in inventory from the previous period and a -1.74% decrease compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory is 5.03 tons, a -6.83% decrease in inventory [16] - **Imports/Exports**: In August, domestic PE imports were 95.02 tons, a -14.17% decrease from the previous period and a -22.11% decrease compared to the same period last year. Exports were 11.60 tons, a 14.12% increase from the previous period and a 61.83% increase compared to the same period last year [16] 6. Polyethylene Demand Side - The downstream operating rate of PE is 45.00%, a 1.44% increase from the previous period and a -0.13% decrease compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal peak season, the downstream demand for polyethylene is lower than in previous years [16] 7. Polypropylene Supply Side - **Production Capacity and Output**: PP capacity utilization is 77.27%, a -0.68% decrease from the previous period, a -1.29% decrease compared to the same period last year, and a -7.77% decrease compared to the average of the past 5 years. According to the production plan, there is significant production pressure for polypropylene in the fourth quarter [15] - **Maintenance Situation**: Not specifically mentioned in the document 8. Polypropylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - **Inventory**: PP production enterprise inventory is 67.87 tons, a -0.40% decrease in inventory from the previous period and a 15.01% increase compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory is 23.86 tons, a -8.62% decrease in inventory; PP port inventory is 6.79 tons, a -1.16% decrease in inventory. Overall, the inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE [16] - **Imports/Exports**: In August, domestic PP imports were 15.96 tons, a -9.91% decrease from the previous period and a -22.23% decrease compared to the same period last year. Exports were 25.02 tons, a 5.99% increase from the previous period and a 32.77% increase compared to the same period last year. With the start of Christmas stockpiling, PP exports may remain at a high level year - on - year [16] 9. Polypropylene Demand Side - The downstream operating rate of PP is 51.80%, a 0.08% increase from the previous period and a 0.12% increase compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal peak season, the downstream demand for polypropylene is lower than in previous years [16]

Report Header - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with expected weak and volatile trends for both today [4][6] - For LLDPE and PP, factors such as geopolitical unrest provide cost support, while weak demand, new capacity in Q4, and Sino - US trade risks are negative factors [5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from last month, with improved but still contracting manufacturing. The long - term "supply increase, demand decrease" pattern of crude oil offers limited cost support. After Trump's tariff threat on October 10, oil prices dropped. With fewer plant overhauls, production increased. Agricultural film operations were stable, and other film demand was good due to the approaching Double 11. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6950 (-10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2601 contract basis is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 54.3 tons (+11.3), neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be weak and volatile today, with falling oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, stable agricultural film operations, and moderately high industrial inventory [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 points. The long - term crude oil pattern offers limited cost support. After the tariff threat, oil prices dropped. There is sufficient supply, with good performance in plastic weaving due to the peak season and weak pipe demand. The current PP delivery spot price is 6560 (-40), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The PP 2601 contract basis is - 35, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.5%, bearish [6] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 68.1 tons (+16.1), neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be weak and volatile today, with falling oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, new capacity coming online, stable downstream average operating rates, and moderately high industrial inventory [6] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current delivery spot price is 6950 (-10), the 01 contract price is 6910 (-8), the basis is 40 (-2), the import US dollar price is 823 (-5), the import conversion price is 7221 (-42), and the import price difference is - 271 (32). The warehouse receipt is 12707 (-10), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 54.3 tons, and social inventory is 52.5 tons [8] - **PP**: The current delivery spot price is 6560 (-40), the 01 contract price is 6595 (-7), the basis is - 35 (-33), the import US dollar price is 820 (-5), the import conversion price is 7195 (-42), and the import price difference is - 635 (2). The warehouse receipt is 13814 (0), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 68.1 tons, and social inventory is 37.2 tons [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, and consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, and consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market for plastics (L) and polypropylene (PP) has been experiencing price declines recently, influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, economic data, and policy changes. Different trading strategies are recommended based on daily analysis, including holding long or short positions, and setting appropriate stop - loss points [1][2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The L2601 contract has shown price fluctuations, with a general downward trend in recent days. LLDPE market prices in different regions have also declined to varying degrees. Market trading sentiment is weak, with trade - offs by traders and low procurement enthusiasm from downstream [1][5][8] - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP2601 contract has also been falling. PP market prices have decreased, and the futures market has dragged down the confidence of the spot market. Downstream factories are cautious in purchasing, with some regions and product types having relatively better transactions [1][5][8] Important Information - **Domestic Policy**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to promote the high - end, green, and intelligent transformation of the industry [24] - **International News**: The US government shutdown has affected economic data and decision - making, and the global plastic additive market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.2% from 2024 to 2029 [1][18] - **Real Estate News**: In September, with the superposition of the "Golden September" effect and stable real - estate policies, the transaction activity of core cities has rebounded [8][11] Logical Analysis - **Supply - related**: Domestic PE and PP production capacity utilization rates have shown different trends, with some periods of increase and decrease. Import volumes of polyethylene and polypropylene have also changed, affecting the L - PP spread [2][21][25] - **Demand - related**: Downstream demand is in the peak season, but the start - up of some industries and order volumes are at a low level compared to the same period. The impact of factors such as the real - estate market and the logistics industry on polyolefin demand is also considered [6][21][31] - **External Factors**: Changes in international oil prices, global stock market values, and economic data from other countries have an impact on the polyolefin market [21][25][28] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Depending on different market conditions, strategies such as holding long or short positions, setting stop - loss points, and waiting and seeing are recommended for the L and PP main 01 contracts [2][6][9] - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Strategies for holding or seizing opportunities to intervene in the L2601 - PP2601 spread are provided, along with corresponding stop - loss settings [2][6][9] - **Options**: The general strategy for options is to wait and see [2][6][9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE are bearish, with the plastic主力合约 expected to fluctuate weakly. The decline in crude oil prices and increased Sino - US macro risks contribute to this outlook. The PE market is also affected by a neutral - high industrial inventory and stable agricultural film operations [4]. - The PP market is also expected to fluctuate weakly. Similar to LLDPE, it is influenced by falling crude oil prices, elevated Sino - US macro risks, new production capacity coming online, and a neutral - high inventory [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Sections LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase, demand decrease" pattern of crude oil limits cost support for polyolefins. After Trump's tariff threat on October 10, the risk of Sino - US trade disputes escalating increased, causing a significant drop in oil prices. On the supply - demand side, device maintenance decreased, production increased, agricultural film operations were stable, and demand for other films was good due to the approaching Double 11. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6960 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 42, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 54.3 million tons (+11.3), considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE主力合约 is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE主力 is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE主力合约 is expected to fluctuate weakly today due to falling crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, stable agricultural film operations, and a neutral - high industrial inventory [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support; bearish factors are weak year - on - year demand, multiple new productions in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing PMI improved but remained in the contraction range. Crude oil's long - term pattern limited cost support, and Sino - US trade risks increased. Supply was abundant, plastic weaving was supported by the peak season, and pipe demand was weak. The current PP delivery spot price is 6600 (-80), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 2, with a neutral position [6]. - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 68.1 million tons (+16.1), considered neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP主力合约 is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP主力 is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP主力合约 is expected to fluctuate weakly today due to falling crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, new production capacity, and a neutral - high inventory [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support; bearish factors are weak year - on - year demand, multiple new productions in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023. The consumption growth rate fluctuated, with a decline in 2021 and relatively small increases in other years [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The consumption growth rate was positive in most years, with relatively high growth in 2019 and 2020 [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic LLDPE and PP markets generally showed a downward trend during the period from September 19 to October 14, 2025. Market sentiment was affected by factors such as futures trends, downstream demand, and cost support. Different factors had both positive and negative impacts on polyolefin investment, and corresponding trading strategies were proposed based on comprehensive analysis [1][8][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The L2601 contract price fluctuated, with a downward trend overall. LLDPE market prices in different regions showed partial declines, and market trading was weak, with end - users mainly making purchases based on rigid demand [1][8][11] - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP2601 contract price also declined. The domestic PP market continued its downward trend, with trade mainly focused on negotiation, and overall trading volume was difficult to increase due to limited downstream new orders and low profit margins [1][8][11] Important Information - On October 9, 2025, China imposed export controls on some rare earth items, aiming to fulfill non - proliferation obligations and maintain peace, with limited impact on the supply chain. The US announced a 100% tariff increase on China and an upgrade of software controls on October 10, which China strongly opposed [1][5] - From 2024 to 2029, the global plastic additives consumption is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, which is related to the output growth of plastic end - consumption fields and changing policies and regulations [9] - On October 1, 2025, the US federal government shut down due to a budget negotiation breakdown, causing an estimated weekly economic loss of about $15 billion [11] - Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promote high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [14] - During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petroleum and chemical industry promoted quality improvement through various means, which helped the high - quality development of the industry [16] Logical Analysis - **Positive Factors**: In August 2025, the electricity consumption of the domestic rubber and plastics industry increased for three consecutive months to 17.69 billion kWh, with a year - on - year increase of +8.9%, which was positive for polyolefin unilateral trading. The ratio of the Baltic Dry Index to the Baltic Crude Oil Freight Index increased by +8.5% year - on - year, showing an eight - month marginal strengthening trend, which was also positive for polyolefin unilateral trading. The US manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 points in August 2025, accelerating for three consecutive months, which was positive for L unilateral trading [2][6][9] - **Negative Factors**: In August 2025, the profit per unit of the domestic rubber and plastics industry decreased by - 11.1% year - on - year, with a continuous decline for 18 months, which was negative for polyolefin unilateral trading. Brent crude oil prices increased to $67.6 per barrel in September 2025, with a year - on - year decrease of - 7.5% but a five - month marginal increase, which was negative for L. In August 2025, domestic PE production increased for two consecutive months to 2.827 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of +16.4% and an eight - month marginal increase, which was negative for the L - PP spread [2][6][15] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Different strategies were proposed for the L and PP main 01 contracts at different times, including trial shorting, holding short positions, holding long positions, and taking a wait - and - see approach, with corresponding stop - loss levels set [2][6][9] - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: For the L2601 - PP2601 spread, strategies included holding positions and waiting for opportunities to enter, with stop - loss levels set at the high points of specific periods [2][6][9] - **Options**: Generally, a wait - and - see approach was recommended [2][6][9]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: October 13, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market for both LLDPE and PP is expected to be weak and volatile today. The decline in crude oil prices and increased Sino-US macro risks are the main factors contributing to this trend. Additionally, the high inventory and additional production capacity in the fourth quarter also add pressure to the market [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing but still in the contraction range. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil has limited support for the polyolefin cost. The threat of a 100% tariff increase by Trump on October 10 has raised the possibility of an escalation of the Sino - US trade dispute, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices. On the supply - demand side, device maintenance has decreased, production load has slightly increased, and production has risen. The agricultural film industry is operating stably, and the demand for other film types is good as Double 11 approaches. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7080 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 43, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 543,000 tons (+113,000 tons), considered neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is long, which is bullish [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support; bearish factors include weak demand year - on - year, significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [5] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained in the contraction range. The decline in oil prices due to trade risks, the addition of new production capacity from Ningbo Jinfa, sufficient supply of goods, good performance of the plastic weaving industry supported by the peak season, and weak demand for pipes. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6760 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 681,000 tons (+161,000 tons), which is bearish [6] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [6] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support; bearish factors include weak demand year - on - year, significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [7] Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7080 (unchanged), and the price of the 01 contract is 7037 (-40); the current spot price of PP delivery products is 6760 (-20), and the price of the 01 contract is 6722 (-23) [4][6][8] - **Inventory Data**: The LLDPE warehouse receipt is 12,795 (+66), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 543,000 tons; the PP warehouse receipt is 13,970 (-60), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 681,000 tons [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2023, the production capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025, the expected production capacity is 4,319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene showed an upward trend, and the import dependence also decreased. In 2025, the expected production capacity is 4,906 [15]