交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+4月3日宣布增产超出市场预期，特朗普对等关 税实施，原油4月初以来明显下跌，成本端带动价格中枢下行。二季度新产能投放仍较为集中， 产业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜旺季结束，整体开工下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减 弱。当前LL交割品现货价7500（-20），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差248，升贴水比例3.4%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存53.2万吨（+4.3），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡 ...

聚烯烃早报 2025-4-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+4月3日宣布增产超出市场预期，特朗普对等关 税实施，清明期间原油大幅下跌，成本端带动价格中枢下行。二季度新产能投放仍较为集中，产 业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜整体开工下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减弱。当前LL交 割品现货价7580（-70），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差493，升贴水比例7.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存48.9万吨（-6.5），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-4-7 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+4月3日宣布增产超出市场预期，特朗普对等关 税实施，清明期间原油大幅下跌，成本端带动价格中枢下行。二季度新产能投放仍较为集中，产 业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜整体开工下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减弱。当前LL交 割品现货价7800（-0），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2505合约基差110，升贴水比例1.4%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55.4万吨（-3.7），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend weakly with oscillations today due to factors such as concentrated new - capacity launches, although the base - difference is strong, the macro - policy promotes consumption, and the film season is ongoing [4]. - PP is expected to show an oscillating trend today, with factors like the recovery of downstream demand and potential supply increase [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, official PMI was 50.2% (up 1.1%), and Caixin PMI was 50.8% (up 0.7%), both in the expansion range. The total export volume in the first two months of 2025 increased by 2.3% year - on - year. The US sanctions on Venezuela reduced crude oil supply and led to price rebounds. New capacity launches are concentrated, the industrial - chain inventory is neutral, and the film season is in progress. The current LLDPE delivery - product spot price is 7870 (unchanged), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Base - difference**: The LLDPE 2505 contract base - difference is 169, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.2%, indicating a bullish sign [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 55.4 tons (down 3.7), considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Positions**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expected Trend**: The LLDPE main - contract market is expected to trend weakly with oscillations [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. This week, one unit of Yulong Petrochemical restarted, and one unit of Yangzi Petrochemical is planned for maintenance, with expected supply increase. The industrial - chain inventory is neutral, and downstream demand has recovered. The current PP delivery - product spot price is 7380 (unchanged), with overall neutral fundamentals [6]. - **Base - difference**: The PP 2505 contract base - difference is 41, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, indicating a bullish sign [6]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 64.2 tons (down 5.9), considered neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend [6]. - **Main Positions**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expected Trend**: The PP main - contract market is expected to show an oscillating trend [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall fundamental situation of LLDPE is bearish, but it is expected to trade sideways today due to factors such as the peak season for plastic film and concentrated new capacity launches [4]. - The fundamental situation of PP is neutral, and it is also expected to trade sideways today with the recovery of downstream demand [6]. 3. Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, both the official and Caixin PMIs returned to the expansion range. The total export volume in the first two months of 2025 reached a record high. The Middle - East situation has deteriorated again, and crude oil has stopped falling and is trading sideways. The government supports domestic consumption through measures such as trade - ins during the Two Sessions in March. New capacity launches are still concentrated in March, the industrial chain inventory is neutral, and the demand for plastic film is in the peak season while other demand is stable. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7900 (-40), with an overall bearish fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2505 contract is 223, with a premium ratio of 2.9%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 59.1 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade sideways today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Strong basis and macro - policies to promote consumption [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Concentrated new capacity launches, weak crude oil prices, and the impact of additional tariffs [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in February, both the official and Caixin PMIs returned to the expansion range. The total export volume in the first two months of 2025 reached a record high. The Middle - East situation has deteriorated again, and crude oil has stopped falling and is trading sideways. The government supports domestic consumption through measures such as trade - ins during the Two Sessions in March. One set of equipment such as Zhejiang Petrochemical has restarted this week, and three sets of equipment such as Maoming Petrochemical are planned for maintenance. It is expected that the supply will increase slightly. The industrial chain inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is good, with the demand for plastic weaving and other products recovering recently. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7380 (+0), with a neutral fundamental situation [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2505 contract is 52, with a premium ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 70.1 million tons (+0.5), which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to trade sideways today [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Macro - policies to promote consumption and recent demand recovery [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak crude oil prices and the impact of additional tariffs [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].