文：陈梦 近年来，随着居民财富管理需求升级和被动投资理念普及，指数投资加速兴起。公募 指数 产品也 凭 借低成本、高透明度和分散风险等优势， 逐步成 为主流配置选择。 今年以来，公募指数产品的规模也是快速增长的。天相投顾数据显示，截至三季度末，非货币ETF、 ETF联接基金及其它场外指数基金规模合计逼近8万亿元，年内增长超2万亿元。 市场持续扩容下，竞争也日趋激烈。随着行业指数投资逐步从规模扩张转向高质量发展道路，指数业 务是否仍值得基金公司大幅投入、发展？而基金公司该如何破局同质化竞争、打造差异化优势？本期 走进工银瑞信基金系列栏目，让我们一起深入探讨。 指数业务 未成定局，未来仍值得大幅投入 近年来，尽管国内指数基金市场不断扩容， 但相较于 海外 成熟市场 仍有较大差距。因此，业内普 遍认为指数投资 市场 仍有 较大 成长 空间 。无论是指数研发、产品布局，还是投教服务、生态构 建，都 蕴含着巨大的发展潜力。 工银瑞信认为， 基金行业指数业务远未 形成 定局，中国 经济高质量发展 是中国指数业务高质量发 展的基石。 后续，公司 将遵循国家产业政策，依据行业发展的规律，创造能代表未来趋势的指数产 品，助力投 ...

1951 年，就读于普林斯顿大学经济系的约翰 · 博格在准备毕业论文时发现： 如果和指数相比，市场上大多数主动基金并没有赚到更多的钱，即使有少数获得了超越指数的回报，但高昂的管 理费率使得投资者"拿到手"的实际回报低于那"看起来还不错"的市场表现。 1975 年，在金融市场征战 20 多年的博格依旧认为不存在能战胜市场指数的基金，于是他推出了全球第一只指 数基金 —— 先锋 500 指数基金，策略很简单，就是被动地复制标准普尔 500 指数。 基金起初打算募集 1.5 亿美元，但由于当时大多数投资者认为自己能够战胜市场，并对这一"非美国式"的投资 方式并不感冒，所以最终只募集到 1100 万美元，博格也因此遭到了整条华尔街的嘲笑，这些精英们称之为 "博 格的荒唐事" 。 中证 A500 的编制规则要求，指数采用行业均衡选样方法，从各行业选取市值较大、流动性较好的 500 只证券 作为指数样本，以反映各行业最具代表性上市公司证券的整体表现，最终同时覆盖 91 个中证三级行业。 但后来我们也知道，指数行业如火如荼的发展以及标普 500 指数的超强表现 （截至 2024 年，指数自 1957 年 发布以来累计上涨 ...

Core Insights - The public fund industry is entering the final countdown for its "year-end exam" as 2025 approaches, with scale remaining a critical factor for survival among smaller firms and a cornerstone for larger firms [1] - This year's year-end scale battle is characterized by a shift towards index funds as the main battleground, with bond funds serving as the stabilizing force [1] Fund Issuance Trends - In December, a total of 139 new funds are set to be launched, marking a significant increase from 107 in the same period last year, with equity funds, particularly index funds, leading the charge [2] - Among the new funds, 85 are equity funds, accounting for over 60%, with passive index funds making up the largest share at 40 and enhanced index funds at 19, together representing 70% of new equity fund issuances [2] - In November, index funds accounted for 50.34% of new fund issuances, raising a total of 32.305 billion yuan, which is 33.58% of the total fundraising for that month [2] Strategic Shifts in Fund Management - Unlike previous years where star fund managers created blockbuster products, more fund companies are now focusing on low-cost, efficient tool-based products to adapt to market demand changes [3] Performance of Leading Fund Companies - Leading fund management firms are notably active in the year-end scale battle, with companies like E Fund, Ping An Fund, and GF Fund launching multiple new products in December [4] - The rankings of fund companies have seen slight changes, with some firms improving their positions due to the growth of passive investment opportunities, particularly in ETFs [5] Focus on Technology Sector - The technology sector has emerged as the primary focus for new fund issuances, with 7 new AI-focused ETFs and 10 products targeting the semiconductor sector among the new passive index funds [7] - The first batch of 7 AI-focused ETFs is expected to attract over 30 billion yuan in new capital if fully subscribed, reflecting strong market interest in technology investments [7][8] Market Drivers - The surge in technology-focused ETF filings is driven by supportive policies, strong market performance, and heightened competition within the industry, creating a favorable environment for investment in hard technology and innovation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is entering a critical phase as it approaches the end of 2025, with a focus on scale competition among fund companies, particularly emphasizing index funds as the main battlefield for major players [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Issuance Trends - In December, a total of 139 new funds are set to be launched, marking a significant increase from 107 in the same period last year, with equity funds, especially index funds, leading the charge [3]. - Among the new funds, 85 are equity funds, accounting for over 60%, with passive index funds making up 40 and enhanced index funds 19, representing 70% of new equity fund issuances [3]. - In November, index funds accounted for 50.34% of new fund issuances, raising a total of 32.305 billion yuan, which is 33.58% of the total fundraising [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Major fund management companies are significantly ramping up their efforts in the year-end scale competition, with notable issuances from firms like E Fund, Ping An Fund, and GF Fund [5]. - The rankings of fund companies have seen slight changes, with some companies improving their positions due to the growth of passive investment products, particularly ETFs [6]. - For instance, Southern Fund's Southern CSI 500 ETF saw a growth of 26.66 billion yuan in the third quarter, contributing to its improved ranking [6][7]. Group 3: Focus on Technology Sector - The technology sector has emerged as the primary focus for new fund issuances, with 7 new AI-focused ETFs and 10 products targeting the semiconductor and tech industries [8]. - The first batch of 7 AI ETFs is expected to attract over 30 billion yuan in new capital if fully subscribed, indicating strong market interest in technology investments [8][9]. - Factors such as supportive policies, market performance, and competitive dynamics are driving the surge in technology-focused ETF applications [9].

Market Outlook - The current state of the U.S. stock market is concerning, with a potential long-term bear market similar to 2000 expected in the coming years [4][22] - The dominance of passive investment (over 50%) in the market may lead to a scenario where the entire market declines simultaneously, making it difficult to protect oneself with long positions [5][22] Investment in AI and Comparisons to Historical Bubbles - The current AI investment frenzy is likened to the "data transmission bubble" of 2000, with both exhibiting a lag between capital expenditure and market peaks [6][35] - Companies like Palantir and Nvidia are viewed as beneficiaries of this bubble, despite not initially producing AI-specific products [32][34] Palantir's Valuation Concerns - Palantir's stock is currently valued at $200, but it is believed to be worth only $30 or lower, leading to a significant bearish bet on its future decline [6][30] - The company has created multiple billionaires despite having minimal actual profits, raising concerns about its financial structure and valuation [30][28] Google's Search Business and AI Threats - AI poses a significant threat to Google's core cash flow from its search business, which has historically operated at very low costs [39][40] - The high costs associated with AI search may limit profitability, as most users can access necessary services for free, with a small percentage willing to pay for advanced models [41] Critique of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is criticized for not having made any beneficial contributions over its century-long existence, with a call for its functions to be transferred to the Treasury Department [3][46] - The current economic situation is viewed as unsustainable, with high interest payments and welfare obligations straining the fiscal landscape [42][46]

Core Viewpoint - The fund issuance market remains robust as year-end approaches, with many new funds being launched and several funds ending their fundraising early, indicating a continuous influx of capital into the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Issuance Trends - As of December 3, 14 new funds announced early closure of their fundraising since November, reflecting strong demand [1]. - The newly launched Xingquan CSI 300 Quality ETF, initially set to raise funds until December 5, closed early on December 1 after selling over 1 billion units in just two days, with a fundraising cap of 2 billion yuan [1]. - The total number of new funds established this year reached 1,488, surpassing the numbers from 2024 (1,136) and 2023 (1,280), and is close to the 2022 figure of 1,546 [2]. Group 2: Fund Types and Investor Preferences - Passive funds, particularly equity and mixed funds, have gained popularity, making up over 50% of new products this year, the highest level in three years [2]. - "Fixed income plus" products have seen significant growth, with a total market size of 2.44 trillion yuan as of Q3, up over 500 billion yuan from Q2 [3]. - Index-enhanced funds are favored by institutions as a way to enter passive investment, allowing for both index tracking and showcasing active management capabilities [4].

Market Outlook - Michael Burry expresses an extremely pessimistic outlook for the U.S. stock market, predicting a prolonged bear market similar to that of 2000 in the coming years [3][19] - He believes that the dominance of passive investment (over 50% market share) will lead to a synchronized market decline, making it difficult to protect long positions in the U.S. [4][19] AI Investment Bubble - Burry compares the current AI investment frenzy to the "data transmission bubble" of 2000, highlighting a lag between capital expenditure and market peaks [5][30] - He predicts that Palantir's stock will significantly decline over the next two years, citing unreasonable valuations and an unhealthy financial structure as core reasons [5][21] Palantir's Financial Health - Burry criticizes Palantir for creating billionaires without generating substantial profits, noting that the company's stock-based compensation has led to a high number of wealthy individuals relative to its revenue [26][24] - He points out that Palantir's revenue from government contracts has decreased significantly, as the company shifts focus to enterprise clients amid the AI infrastructure boom [24][21] Google and AI Challenges - Burry warns that AI poses a serious threat to Google's core cash flow from its search business, as AI search is costly compared to traditional search methods [34][35] - He argues that most users will access services through free tiers, with a small percentage willing to pay for large models, leading to a highly commoditized market [35][34] Federal Reserve Critique - Burry holds a sharp critique of the Federal Reserve, stating it has not contributed positively over its century-long existence and advocates for its abolition, suggesting its functions be transferred to the Treasury [2][40][41]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry expresses a highly pessimistic outlook on the U.S. stock market, predicting a prolonged bear market similar to that of 2000, driven by the dominance of passive investment strategies [2][5][21]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Burry believes that the current market structure, dominated by passive funds (over 50%), will lead to a scenario where the entire market declines simultaneously, making it difficult to protect oneself with long positions [6][24]. - He compares the current AI investment frenzy to the "data transmission bubble" of 2000, noting a lag between capital expenditure and market peaks [3][8]. - Burry anticipates that Palantir's stock, currently at $200, is overvalued and should be worth $30 or less, leading him to buy out-of-the-money put options with a strike price of $50 [6][11]. Group 2: Palantir's Financial Health - Burry criticizes Palantir's financial structure, highlighting that the company has created multiple billionaires without generating significant profits, as its stock-based compensation is nearly equal to its profits [7][32]. - He points out that Palantir's revenue from government contracts has significantly decreased, and the company is now focusing on enterprise clients, which may not yield the expected profitability [31][32]. - Burry emphasizes that the current valuation of Palantir is unsustainable, as the company has not produced specialized AI products despite being perceived as a leader in the field [33][36]. Group 3: AI and Google - Burry warns that AI poses a serious threat to Google's core cash flow from its search business, as AI search is significantly more expensive compared to traditional search methods [3][42]. - He argues that most users will access AI services for free, and the willingness to pay for large models will be minimal, with real profits likely confined to the developer ecosystem [9][43]. Group 4: Critique of the Federal Reserve - Burry holds a sharp critique of the Federal Reserve, claiming it has not contributed positively over its century-long existence and advocates for its abolition, suggesting that its functions should be transferred to the Treasury [4][48][49].

Group 1 - CRH Cement, Carvana, and Comfort Systems USA will be added to the S&P 500 index during the quarterly adjustment at the end of December, while LKQ Corp., Solstice Advanced Materials, and Mohawk Industries will be removed [1][4] - Following the announcement, Carvana and CRH Cement's stock prices rose approximately 7%, while Comfort Systems USA's stock increased by about 2% in after-hours trading [1] - Carvana's stock price has surged from under $4 in 2022 to around $400 currently, marking a 10,000% increase, attributed to cost-cutting and debt restructuring efforts [1] Group 2 - Companies must have a minimum market capitalization of $22.7 billion and meet profitability, liquidity, and stock float requirements to qualify for inclusion in the S&P 500 index [4] - The inclusion of Carvana, CRH Cement, and Comfort Systems USA is seen as beneficial for industry diversification and aligns with the inclusion criteria [4] - Market strategist Matt Maley noted that while the initial stock price increase following inclusion announcements is often temporary, the significance of such announcements remains due to the popularity of index-tracking funds [4]

Group 1 - CRH Cement, Carvana, and Comfort Systems USA will be added to the S&P 500 index during the quarterly adjustment at the end of December, while LKQ Corp., Solstice Advanced Materials, and Mohawk Industries will be removed [1][4] - Following the announcement, Carvana and CRH Cement's stock prices rose approximately 7%, while Comfort Systems USA's stock increased by about 2% in after-hours trading [1] - Carvana's stock price has surged from under $4 in 2022 to around $400 currently, marking a 10,000% increase, attributed to cost-cutting and debt restructuring efforts that improved profitability [1] Group 2 - The rise of passive investing has made inclusivity in U.S. stock indices increasingly important, as funds tracking these indices will increase demand for stocks [4] - Companies must have a market capitalization of at least $22.7 billion and meet profitability, liquidity, and stock float requirements to qualify for inclusion in the S&P 500 index [4] - Analysts predict that Carvana, CRH Cement, and Comfort Systems USA are quality candidates for inclusion, with Carvana's stock up nearly 100% year-to-date [4]