Core Viewpoint - Zhengye International (03363.HK) expects a significant decline in profit attributable to equity holders, projecting earnings between RMB 1.0 million and RMB 3.0 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to RMB 15.03 million in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The decrease in profit is primarily attributed to uncertainties in trade policies and weak domestic consumption, leading to intensified competition in the paper and paper products packaging industry [1] - Although the sales volume in the paper segment increased by over 10% year-on-year, the sales prices for both raw paper products and paper packaging products fell by more than 8% compared to the previous year [1] - The price of major raw material, waste paper, rose by approximately 4% year-on-year, contributing to a decline in overall gross margin by about 5% compared to the same period last year [1] Cost Management - In response to operational challenges, the company has enhanced management optimization and strictly controlled various cost expenditures, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in period expenses of approximately 2% [1] - The paper division's sales from the renovation of old materials generated additional income, leading to a smaller decline in net profit margin of only about 1.3% compared to the previous year [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade policy uncertainties and expectations of Fed rate cuts support the strong performance of precious metals. Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted, and it is expected to continue the long - and medium - term bull market. However, price volatility has increased [4][5]. - In the short term, London gold will oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce, waiting for the next breakthrough. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate with medium - to - low positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Trump's tariff policies and Fed officials' support for rate cuts drive precious metals up. London gold approaches $3400 per ounce. It is recommended to hold a long - position mindset and participate with medium - to - low positions. This week, focus on China's July foreign trade, price, and financial data, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and US trade tariff policies [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 786.70, up 0.17%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9275, up 0.82%; Gold T + D closed at 782.00, up 0.36%; Silver T + D closed at 9224, up 0.83% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. Uncertainties in Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks support the price. The gold - silver ratio has returned to pre - April levels. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the $3120 - 3500 per ounce range. Investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings [7][9]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. The US will impose about 100% tariffs on imported semiconductor chips [17]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods. Modi will visit China on August 31, indicating a thaw in India - China diplomacy [17]. - Some Fed policymakers are worried about the US job market and economic slowdown. Kashkari believes there will be two rate cuts this year, Daly thinks the Fed will need to cut rates soon, and Cook is concerned about the latest job market data [18].

新华社柏林8月7日电（记者 车云龙 张毅荣）德国联邦统计局7日公布的数据显示，受中国和欧盟市 场强劲需求推动，德国6月出口同比增长2.4%，环比增长0.8%，结束此前连续两个月下滑趋势。 数据显示，经季节和工作日调整后，6月德国出口总额为1305亿欧元，进口总额为1156亿欧元。当 月德国对欧盟成员国出口环比增长2.4%，对欧盟以外国家出口下降1.2%，其中对中国出口增长1.1%。 数据显示，受美国加征关税等因素影响，6月德国对美出口环比下降2.1%，为连续第三个月下降； 同比降幅达8.4%。今年上半年，德国对美出口同比下降3.1%。 德国批发和外贸协会主席迪尔克·扬杜拉当天发表声明说，美国反复无常的贸易政策已对德国对外 贸易造成严重影响，不确定性持续上升，直接带来出口损失。越来越多德国企业正在应对当前形势，积 极寻找替代市场。他同时呼吁欧盟与其他贸易伙伴达成更多自由贸易协定，并对现有协定进行改革。 ...

中新网8月7日电 综合德媒报道，德国工商总会6日发布的一项调查显示，在欧盟和美国达成初步贸易协 议后，大多数德国公司预计跨大西洋贸易将遭受更多负面影响。 调查指出，贸易政策的不确定性也对德国企业的全球市场战略产生了明显影响。54%的受访企业表示， 他们希望减少与美国的交易。26%的企业正在减少对美国的投资或暂停投资。 调查显示，约72%的德国受访企业已经感受到美国现行贸易政策较为显著的负面影响。尤其是与美国有 直接业务联系的企业中，有九成已感受到不利影响。 调查还显示，企业最主要的困扰是贸易政策充满不确定性，80%的企业把担心新的关税措施列为核心问 题，72%的企业则认为美国对欧盟征收的关税显著增加了经营负担。 梅尔尼科夫还表示，美欧贸易协议或许具有政治必要性，但对德国众多企业来说，"它仍是一剂苦药"。 它带来的是额外负担而非减负：更高的关税、更多的官僚主义，以及不断下降的竞争力。" 根据该调查，美国业务中的关税成本上升不仅影响德国企业。在报告关税成本应对方式发生变化的企业 中，84%表示会将至少一部分额外成本转嫁给美国的客户。由此，关税将进一步加剧美国的通胀压力。 德国工商总会主席梅尔尼科夫警告称，"美国的 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the end of the dollar bear market and highlights significant impacts from trade agreements involving over $600 billion in investments and $750 billion in U.S. energy procurement, which have notably influenced the foreign exchange market [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation and its focus on labor market reports suggest a potential rebound risk for the dollar if unemployment rates do not rise as expected [1][4] - Trade policy uncertainty is currently showing a positive change rate, indicating that if uncertainty decreases, the dollar may rise to levels suggested by yield differentials [6] - A reduction in oil imports from Russia could pressure the global oil market, raising oil prices and negatively impacting emerging market currencies, while potentially delaying Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, thus providing some support for the dollar [1][7] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach, awaiting more evidence on inflation to assess potential price level adjustments and their ripple effects [4] - If the unemployment rate does not rise as anticipated, the risk of a dollar rebound increases [4] - The Fed may need to implement two to three rate cuts by the end of 2026 to maintain a neutral policy stance [5] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The current positive change rate in trade policy uncertainty suggests that the worst may be over, and a reduction in uncertainty could lead to a dollar increase [6] - The negative impacts of tariffs are expected to manifest in the fourth quarter, potentially necessitating significant rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 to address economic slowdowns [6] Oil Price Movements - A decrease in oil imports from Russia could lead to higher global oil prices, adversely affecting emerging market currencies that are oil importers [7] - Recent increases in Brent crude oil prices from $68-69 per barrel to over $72 have contributed to the underperformance of currencies like the yen [7] - Typically, a strengthening dollar index results in corresponding depreciation of emerging market currencies, with the potential for further weakening if oil prices rise due to reduced imports from Russia [8]

汇丰 银行在一份报告中称，美国大量积压的铜库存可能会被消耗，从而削弱美国对铜的需求。由于买 家预计美国的铜关税会比实际更宽泛，纽约商品交易所的库存攀升至 21 年来的最高水平。汇丰预测， 2025 年铜价平均为每磅 4.24 美元，2026 年为每磅 4.15 美元。该银行表示："近期铜市场的动态非常清 楚地表明了贸易政策的不确定性如何影响经济、市场和价格。""美国和海外铜价之间的巨大价差也创造 了大量的交易机会，并显著提高了 大宗商品市场的交易利润。"伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜价上涨 0.3%，至每吨 9663 美元。 ...

金十数据8月4日讯，汇丰银行在一份报告中说，美国积累的大量铜库存现在可能会减少，削弱美国对铜 的需求。纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜库存攀升至21年高位，因买家预期美国对铜征收更大关税。汇 丰银行预测，2025年铜价平均为每磅4.24美元，2026年为每磅4.15美元。该行表示："近期铜市场的发展 非常清楚地说明，贸易政策的不确定性会如何影响经济、市场和价格。""美国和海外铜价之间的价差大 幅扩大，也创造了大量的交易机会，并显著提高了大宗商品市场的交易利润。" 市场分析：美国铜需求疲软，库存减少 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has implemented "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from 69 countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, increasing market uncertainty and leaving room for negotiations [1] - The Trump administration has initiated independent tariff investigations on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals, and industrial products, indicating prolonged uncertainty in trade policy [1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with only 73,000 new non-farm jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, and a downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June [1] Group 2 - Following the disappointing employment report, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged from 45% to 75%, with traders pricing in two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points by the end of the year [6] - The U.S. stock market experienced a four-day decline, with the Dow Jones falling 1.23%, the S&P 500 down 1.60%, and the Nasdaq dropping 2.24%, as major tech companies faced significant pressure [7] Group 3 - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 typically experiences an average decline of 0.7% in August and September, marking these months as the worst-performing of the year [10] - The current market environment is complicated by high valuations driven by AI trends and "soft landing" expectations, alongside new tariffs and economic data releases, leading to increased market pressure [12] - The disappointing non-farm payroll data has heightened concerns about economic momentum, triggering a potential "August curse" and prompting institutions to adopt "low-cost defensive" strategies [12]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 financial results reflect significant challenges, with a notable decline in net profit and concerns over international trade policies impacting various business segments [2][3]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $92.515 billion, slightly above market expectations of $91.963 billion but down from $93.653 billion year-on-year [5]. - Operating profit for Q2 was $11.16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [5]. - Net profit for Q2 was $12.37 billion, a staggering 59% drop compared to $30.35 billion in the same period last year [5]. - Cash reserves stood at $344.1 billion, close to historical highs, but marked the first decline in three years [12]. Investment Performance - Investment income for Q2 was $6.4 billion, with significant volatility noted in the investment portfolio [10]. - A $3.8 billion impairment loss was recognized on the investment in Kraft Heinz, reflecting ongoing valuation challenges [10][11]. - The company has been a net seller of stocks for 11 consecutive quarters, selling approximately $3 billion worth of stocks in Q2 [12]. Business Segment Analysis - The BNSF railroad segment showed strong performance with a 19% increase in net profit to $1.47 billion, driven by improved operational efficiency [6][13]. - Insurance underwriting profits were $2.5 billion, impacted by $1.2 billion in losses from California wildfires [6][9]. - The manufacturing, service, and retail sectors reported mixed results, with notable declines in revenue for certain consumer brands due to trade policy uncertainties [14][15]. Trade Policy Impact - The company highlighted that trade policy uncertainties have led to significant revenue declines in its clothing and toy brands, with specific brands experiencing drops of 11.7% to 38.5% [15][16]. - The upcoming tariffs announced by the Trump administration are expected to further exacerbate these challenges [16].

瑞士在与美国贸易协议谈判的最后时刻遭遇戏剧性逆转，特朗普亲自推翻了此前已获美方财长和贸易代表认可的协议框架，最终对瑞士商品征收39%的 关税。 8月2日，据媒体报道，瑞士当地时间周四晚间，瑞士联邦主席凯勒-祖特尔（Karin Keller-Sutter）与特朗普通话时发现，双方对贸易关系公平性的看法 存在巨大分歧。在距离新关税生效仅剩10小时的关键时刻，特朗普专注于近400亿美元的商品贸易逆差，要求瑞士提出更多让步。 据知情人士透露，当凯勒-祖特尔未能提供改变贸易平衡的新方案后，愤怒的特朗普几乎是随意选定了对瑞士征收39%的关税税率。据央视新闻，当地 时间7月31日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的"对等关税"税率，其中瑞士的关税税率为39%。 分析指出，此次谈判破裂令瑞士震惊，凸显了特朗普贸易政策的不确定性，即使是已获技术层面认可的协议也可能在最后时刻被总统个人推翻。 据悉，美国和瑞士双方代表团已就协议框架进行了超过一个月的谈判，瑞士政府7月4日已正式批准该框架，且美国财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）和 贸易代表格里尔（Jamieson Greer）都已同意草案内容。 最后 ...