近期，美国经济数据发布后引起了社会的广泛关注。根据美国商务部最新出炉的报告，今年第一季度，美国经济出人意料地按年率计算萎缩了0.5%，这一 数据比先前预估的-0.2%更为糟糕，也是自2022年第一季度以来，美国经济首次经历季度性负增长。这一消息无疑加深了市场对美国经济增长动力的担忧， 同时也揭示了关税政策可能对数据产生的扭曲效应。 本次GDP终值的下调，主要原因是消费者支出与出口数据的向下调整。作为美国经济的重要引擎，第一季度个人消费支出的增速显著放缓至0.5%，远低于 去年第四季度的4%，创下了自2021年以来的最低增速。与此同时，进口激增37.9%，导致净出口对GDP的拖累高达4.7个百分点，这反映出企业为了应对未 来可能的关税上调，采取了提前囤货的策略。 尽管进口数据的调整在一定程度上缓解了消费疲软带来的负面影响，但美国经济整体仍然呈现出需求放缓的趋势。第一季度国内需求增长率从初值的3.0% 大幅下调至1.9%，而联邦支出的降幅更是达到了4.6%，这是自2022年以来的最大降幅。核心PCE物价指数终值上调至3.5%，显示出通胀压力依然巨大，进 一步加剧了市场对滞胀风险的忧虑。 美国劳动力市场的降温同样引 ...

Core Insights - The global merchandise trade barometer index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5 in June, marking the highest level since August 2021 and remaining above the baseline of 100, indicating ongoing trade growth [1] - Strong growth in global merchandise trade in the early months of the year was driven by importers' anticipatory purchasing behavior in response to expected tariff policy adjustments [1] - In contrast, the new export orders index fell to 97.9, dropping below the baseline of 100 and entering a contraction zone, suggesting a potential slowdown in global trade growth later in the year [1] Trade Dynamics - The global merchandise trade barometer serves as an early warning signal for short-term trade trends by collecting trade statistics from major economies [1] - The report highlights a stark contrast between surging import demand and weak export orders, reflecting an imbalance in the current global trade structure [1] - Export orders were the only category to show negative growth, indicating the fragility of trade growth despite strong import activity [1] Future Outlook - The World Trade Organization warns that increasing uncertainty in trade policies globally could exacerbate the risk of trade contraction [2] - Potential large-scale tariff implementations could pose significant challenges to global trade [2] - While short-term growth in global merchandise trade is observed, the medium-term outlook faces numerous challenges due to rising uncertainty factors in the global economic environment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's deliberation summary indicates that despite high uncertainty in trade policies, domestic factors such as stable wage levels and a Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly above expectations are noteworthy [1] Group 1 - A member of the Bank of Japan highlighted the high uncertainty surrounding trade policies [1] - Domestic wage levels are performing robustly, which is a positive indicator for the economy [1] - The CPI is reported to be slightly higher than expected, suggesting inflationary pressures may be present [1]

英国央行：贸易政策不确定性将持续对英国经济造成不利影响。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the steel and commodity industry [5] Core Insights - The report discusses how a civilian prediction indicator has become an "invisible driver" of asset prices, particularly in the steel and commodity sectors. It highlights the strong correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and various asset markets, including commodities, bonds, stocks, and foreign exchange [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating this prediction indicator with traditional economic data and policy interest rate curves for more comprehensive asset allocation [6][10] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The steel industry has shown a performance of -1.9% over the last month, -8.7% over the last three months, and 7.6% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which has seen -0.4%, -3.3%, and 9.4% respectively [4] Asset Linkage Commodity Market - The report notes a significant rise in silver prices and a strong synchronization between the gold-silver ratio and the "U.S. recession expectation." It suggests that when recession probabilities decrease, silver, which has more industrial properties, tends to outperform gold [12] - The report also mentions that the crude oil VIX has shown a close correlation with the "U.S. recession expectation," indicating that market predictions of oil price volatility are influenced by recession expectations [12] Bond Market - The report indicates that when the "U.S. recession expectation" rises, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tends to weaken, although recent trends show some divergence. The 10-2 year yield spread has shown a complex relationship with recession probabilities [15] Stock Market - The report highlights a strong negative correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and the S&P 500 index, suggesting that rising recession expectations directly impact corporate profit outlooks [21] - It also notes that the Russell 2000 to S&P 500 ratio has not returned to early-year highs despite a temporary decline in recession expectations, reflecting ongoing concerns about long-term corporate profitability due to tariff policies [21] Foreign Exchange Market - The report states that the U.S. dollar index has mostly moved inversely to the "U.S. recession expectation," although a gap has emerged since May, potentially linked to U.S. fiscal risks and trade policy uncertainties [22] - The report also mentions that the USD/JPY exchange rate tends to weaken when recession expectations rise, indicating a flight to the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset [22]

五月美国劳动力市场呈现矛盾图景：一方面，裁员规模激增。再就业服务机构Challenger, Gray & Christmas数据显示，五月雇主公告裁员人数达九万三千八 百余人，较去年同期大幅增长百分之四十七，创下年内峰值。另一方面，招聘持续降温。美国劳工统计局同期统计显示，新增就业岗位十三万九千个，连续 第二个月下滑，较四月的十四万七千个进一步萎缩。 在Glassdoor平台上，"裁员"相关讨论量激增百分之九，折射出员工普遍的焦虑情绪。咨商会就业趋势 指数（ETI）同步回落至一百零七点四九，其分项数据中，初请失业金人数升至二十三点五万人，为去年七月以来最高；同时，认为"工作难找"的受访者比 例攀升至百分之十八点六，追平去年高点。 初级岗位员工成为本轮信心崩塌的核心群体，其困境源于三重结构性压力： 1. 职业阶梯断裂：美国招聘市场低迷使初级员工晋升机会锐减，Glassdoor报告 指出"当无人跳槽时，底层员工更难攀爬职业阶梯"。 2. 转型成本转嫁：美国汽车等行业加速向电动化转型，去年该行业裁员四万八千余人，同比增长百分 之四十三点二，生产线调整导致初级技术岗位首当其冲。 3. 经验壁垒高筑：美国小型企业"无法 ...

Group 1 - The business sentiment index for large enterprises in Japan has turned pessimistic for the first time in over a year, dropping to -1.9, indicating more companies perceive a worsening business environment than those that see improvement [1][3] - The manufacturing sector's index plummeted to -4.8, marking a five-quarter low, with significant declines in the automotive, parts, and steel industries [3] - The non-manufacturing index reported at -0.5, the first negative value since Q3 2022, primarily dragged down by the retail and communications sectors [3] Group 2 - The latest data highlights increasing concerns among Japanese companies regarding the uncertainty of U.S. trade policies, particularly following Trump's tariff increases [3] - The automotive manufacturers and parts suppliers' index fell sharply from 8.8 to -16.1, while the steel industry index dropped from 0 to -29.1, reflecting the direct impact of U.S. tariffs [3] - Despite the Bank of Japan's governor reiterating intentions to raise interest rates when conditions allow, the dismal data may lead to more cautious policy deliberations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has temporarily suspended the injunction against certain tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect during the appeal process, which is aimed at balancing the interests of all parties involved [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings and Court Decisions - The Federal Circuit's order emphasizes that the suspension of the injunction is not a final judgment but a measure to balance interests during litigation [1]. - The U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) previously ruled that President Trump could not impose unlimited tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [3]. - The Federal Circuit has expedited the case, requiring oral arguments from both parties by July 31 [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. Department of Justice argued that halting the tariffs could jeopardize sensitive trade negotiations and potentially harm the U.S. economy [1]. - If the IEEPA-related tariffs are revoked, the effective tariff rate could decrease by 10 percentage points to 6%, but this change would not fully mitigate the losses from the trade war [5]. - The World Bank has revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth down from 2.3% to 1.4% [5]. Group 3: Political and Strategic Considerations - There is ongoing uncertainty regarding the Trump administration's ability to maintain tariff barriers through other legal avenues or executive powers [1][6]. - The potential use of various trade laws to impose tariffs has been acknowledged, but the effectiveness of these options remains questionable [6]. - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is expected to exacerbate the national budget deficit, with negative effects on economic growth and consumer prices [6].

摘要 小微企业受关税及摩擦成本影响显著，利润空间受挤压，海外订单新增 受阻，美国进口商持谨慎态度，对小微企业造成较大冲击。 中国房地产市场一季度短暂回升后再次进入低位徘徊，表明财政刺激政 策力度减弱，内需和外需均不积极，经济基本面在低位企稳。 中美谈判聚焦稀土出口和技术封锁，关税进一步下调难度大。陆家嘴论 坛或将公布金融政策，如推动中长期资金入市、提高企业分红等，并可 能出台生育补贴和新型政策性金融工具。 港股市场受益于新消费与新科技资产占比高，以及美元例外论瓦解后非 美元资产上涨的趋势，在全球资本外溢中具备优势。 美国 5 月褐皮书显示经济温和增长，但贸易政策不确定性对餐饮、零售、 旅游及制造业产生压力，企业对未来招聘持谨慎态度，价格压力依然存 在。 美国企业面临需求疲软导致价格上涨无法完全转嫁给消费者的问题，利 润空间受挤压，贸易政策不确定性影响企业和消费者信心。 美国 PMI 数据显示新订单急速下跌，通胀明显抬升，滞胀压力显现。美 股上涨与关税缓和预期相关，美债收益率小幅上升，美元保持反弹。 Q&A 近期国内经济的主要变化和市场策略有哪些？ 近期国内经济数据虽然整体稳定，但出现了一些微妙变化。例如，5 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index is currently about 2% away from its all-time high, a surprising scenario given the market's turmoil earlier in April due to Trump's tariffs [1] - As of last week, all three major U.S. stock indices posted gains, with the Nasdaq Composite rising over 2.3% for the week, driven by strong performances from AI leaders like Nvidia [1] - The U.S. labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.2%, which alleviated concerns about a rapid economic downturn [9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May is expected to test market optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with economists predicting a rise in both overall and core CPI due to the impact of Trump's tariffs [4][14] - Economists expect the May CPI year-over-year to increase from 2.3% in April to 2.5%, while core CPI is anticipated to rise from 2.8% to 2.9% [14] Group 3: Corporate Earnings - Key earnings reports from GameStop (GME), Oracle (ORCL), and Adobe (ADBE) are anticipated this week, with a focus on Oracle's cloud revenue and Adobe's AI-driven creative software revenue [5] - Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) is set to take place, where updates on software products and potential new hardware may be revealed [17] Group 4: Trade Relations - The first meeting of the U.S.-China trade negotiation mechanism is scheduled, with expectations of significant discussions on tariff policies [3][6] - The U.S. Court of Appeals is expected to rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, which could influence market sentiment depending on the outcome [7] Group 5: Political Dynamics - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has led to significant market volatility, with Tesla's stock experiencing a sharp decline following public disputes [19] - Recent comments from hedge fund manager Bill Ackman suggest a potential easing of tensions between Trump and Musk, although uncertainties remain regarding their relationship [21]